Premier Vision. October 2017

Transcription

1 Premier Vision October 2017

2 Contents Tax Free Trends Summary 03 Tax Free Sales Trends 05 Tax Free Sales by Destination and Source 07 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country 09 Currency Trends 11 Arrivals Forecast Europe Overview 13 France 14 United Kingdom 15 Italy 16 Spain 17 Germany 18 Singapore 19 Premier Vision 2

3 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary October % Total Sales -2% Total Vouchers +7% Total ATV +11% Total Arrivals Top 5 Destination Markets Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrivals Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrivals FRA +13% +6% +6% +13% CHN +16% +1% +16% +9% GBR -10% -12% +2% +9% USA +4% +2% +2% +12% ITA +7% -1% +8% +12% RUS +1% +8% -6% +13% ESP -3% -13% +12% +15% HKG +27% -11% +43% +6% DEU +4% -4% +9% +7% KOR +30% +30% -0% +30% Premier Vision 3

4 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary Year to Date +14% Total Sales +10% Total Vouchers +3% Total ATV +11% Total Arrivals Top 5 Destination Markets Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrivals Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrivals FRA +13% +4% +9% +13% CHN +22% +16% +5% +12% GBR +12% +14% -2% +11% USA +18% +8% +9% +16% ITA +21% +19% +2% +9% RUS +11% +28% -13% +19% ESP +18% +10% +8% +17% HKG +32% +14% +15% +7% DEU +4% -0% +4% +6% TWN +34% +34% -0% +10% Premier Vision 4

5 Tax Free Shopping Sales Trends October 2017 Overview Tax Free Shopping sales continued to be subjected to external restrictive influences in October, with the confluence of terrorism, currency fluctuations, and geo-political unrest applying continued downward pressure on trading conditions in the month. The 5% increase in sales in the month was achieved despite a 2% decline in transactions. The resurgence in tourism to France in 2017 saw a 13% increase in arrival numbers in October, commensurate with a 14% increase in sales. However, despite arrival gains in all other major destination markets, gains in sales were tempered with Spain evidencing it s first decline in sales since June 2016, and the UK sustaining the trends seen in recent months. Although the outlook for arrival numbers continues to remain positive, the environment of continued uncertainty suggests that gains in the final two months of 2017 will continue to be somewhat diluted. The outlook for Jan-18 also suggests gains at the start of the year will also be muted, but this will largely be attributable to the timing of the Chinese New Year, falling at the end of January in 2017 and falling in mid-february in 2018, with preliminary estimates suggesting strong gains in Feb-18. Golden Week provides mixed fortunes; Outlook for Chinese New Year cautiously optimistic Sales to Chinese tourists increased by 16% in October, predominantly boosted by strong gains in France, Italy and Spain, but moderated by muted gains in Germany and a decline in the UK, although mitigated by the fact that UK saw gains in excess of 60% in the same period last year. Reports from Ctrip indicate that whilst South East Asian countries increased in popularity for these tourists over this period, increasing numbers opted for countries in Central and Eastern Europe, with the Czech Republic, Austria and Italy cited as evidencing significant increases in bookings. This increase in travel to less conventional destination options saw sales to these tourists in Austria and the Czech Republic increase by 35% and 46%, respectively. The current outlook for January 2018 for arrival numbers to the main destination markets suggests a 27% decline, attributable to the timing of the Chinese New Year and Golden Week in With Chinese New Year celebrations for the Year of the Dog commencing on 16th February in 2018, early indications from our partners at Forward Keys suggest that whilst South East Asian countries look to continue to benefit, bookings for outbound travel to Europe in Feb-18 currently look extremely positive with gains between 30 to 40% predicted. Forecasted growth in spend by South Korean tourists materialises with strong gains Post the US deployment of the THAAD missile defence system in South Korean territory, which led to a travel ban on Chinese nationals travelling to South Korea, and a reciprocal reduction in South Koreans travelling to China, relations between the nations appear to be thawing. Recent reports indicate the two nations have agreed to restore bilateral relations to a normal development path swiftly. However, prior to this mooted reinstatement of political relations, according to data from Modetour, the 2nd largest travel agency in South Korea, South Korean arrival numbers to China declined by 37% and 42% in September and October respectively, whilst arrival numbers to Europe increased by 108% and 34%, respectively. As previously reported, the week long South Korean harvest festival, which was supplemented by South Korean authorities this year with an extra day of vacation providing a 10 day holiday period, clearly encouraged travel to destinations further afield. With sales gains of 30% to these tourists in the month of October, accretive to the 20% growth in October 2016, this represented the highest rate of growth amongst all major nationalities, resulting in these tourists being the fifth most important nationality in the month. Premier Vision 5

6 Tax Free Shopping Sales Trends October 2017 UK continues to be hampered by headwinds; recent reports highlight price increases The reported headwinds relating to trading conditions in the UK showed no signs of abating in October, with the effects of terror attacks, a subdued Middle East, and growth compares to strong gains in the second half of 2016, were all additionally accretive to recent and further fluctuations in the value of the Pound. Prior to the historically significant announcement of an interest rate increase by the Bank of England, it had been suggested that this had been priced into the value of Sterling which had evidenced gains, however, the announcement that interest rate increases would be implemented over a period of time applied further downward pressure on Sterling, resulting in the significant fluctuations seen in recent weeks. Furthermore, recent research published in a report by the consulting group Oliver Wyman, highlights that whilst increasing numbers are travelling to the UK due to the weakness in the value of the Pound, where the UK had traditionally been perceived as being expensive, continued weakness in Sterling is now attracting less wealthy Chinese travellers. This coupled with increasing numbers of reports revealing how some retailers have increased prices in an effort to harmonise price differentials, have therefore dissipated the fx arbitrage effects. Sales to Middle East tourists falter as increasing geo-political uncertainty reigns Whilst several factors from a destination market perspective have contrived in providing a degree of deterrence for tourism, sales to the main Middle Eastern nations also significantly impacted trading conditions in October. Sales to this group of nations saw a 26% decline in October, and where sales to Qatari had been the primary factor for fluctuations in sales to this group of tourists in recent months, attributable to the blockade announcement, each of these nations saw a similar level of decline in the month. The concomitant effects of low oil prices, investments in industries outside of oil to diversify these economies, a weakening dollar, and resources invested in the war in Yemen, which have all stimulated an environment of budget deficits, reduced pay and subsequent squeeze on household incomes, all leading to these nations skirting on the edge of a recessionary environment. Whilst the advent of the introduction of Value Added Tax in this region in 2018 is expected to boost the coffers and enhance tax free shopping opportunities, domestically, increased prices will likely serve to continue to apply pressure on the propensity to spend. However, the increase in geo-political risk has served to push oil prices up in recent weeks. Premier Vision 6

7 Sales Performance October 2017 By Destination By Source Market FRA 12.7% CHN 16.4% GBR -10.3% USA 3.8% ITA 7.3% RUS 1.4% ESP -2.9% HKG 26.5% DEU 4.0% KOR 29.6% SGP -0.1% TWN 23.2% AUT 21.0% THA 11.5% CZE 31.6% SAU -23.3% PRT 35.6% KUW -30.9% IRL 8.9% BRA 5.8% Premier Vision 7

8 Sales Performance Year to Date By Destination By Source Market FRA 13.1% CHN 22.3% GBR 12.3% USA 17.8% ITA 21.1% RUS 10.9% ESP 18.2% HKG 31.5% DEU 3.5% TWN 34.0% SGP -7.0% KOR 18.6% AUT 22.7% UAE 7.2% CZE 38.1% SAU -6.5% IRL 12.9% THA 6.0% PRT 38.9% KUW -0.6% Premier Vision 8

9 Top 5 Visitor Nations Per Destination Country October 2017 Market Share Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Year on Year Sales Market Share Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Year on Year Sales FRANCE CHINA 34% 1,682 23% HONG KONG 9% 5,652 52% USA 8% 1,349 20% SOUTH KOREA 7% % RUSSIA 5% 1,596-6% SINGAPORE CHINA 37% % INDIA 15% 601 7% INDONESIA 13% % THAILAND 4% % VIETNAM 3% 263 3% UK CHINA 29% % USA 7% % KUWAIT 5% % HONG KONG 5% % SAUDI ARABIA 5% % AUSTRIA CHINA 38% % TAIWAN 8% % SWITZERLAND 8% 391-5% RUSSIA 8% % UKRAINE 4% % ITALY CHINA 32% 1,097 25% USA 10% 1,131-4% RUSSIA 10% % TAIWAN 5% 1,210 10% SOUTH KOREA 4% % CZECH REP. CHINA 30% % RUSSIA 21% % TAIWAN 13% % SOUTH KOREA 7% % USA 6% 467-4% SPAIN CHINA 35% % RUSSIA 8% % USA 6% 585-3% ARGENTINA 5% 242-7% SOUTH KOREA 4% % PORTUGAL CHINA 34% 1,687 60% BRAZIL 18% % ANGOLA 15% 354 3% RUSSIA 5% % ARGENTINA 3% 1, % GERMANY CHINA 42% 591 8% RUSSIA 9% 576-2% THAILAND 5% % TAIWAN 5% % USA 4% % IRELAND USA 38% 99 10% CHINA 33% 482 8% CANADA 5% 84-1% AUSTRALIA 4% 114-1% THAILAND 2% % Premier Vision 9

10 Top 5 Visitor Nations Per Destination Country YTD Market Share Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Year on Year Sales Market Share Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Year on Year Sales FRANCE CHINA 31% 1,687 21% USA 8% 1,322 21% HONG KONG 8% 4,996 46% SOUTH KOREA 6% 723 6% RUSSIA 6% 1,563 0% SINGAPORE CHINA 32% 384-5% INDONESIA 15% % INDIA 14% 595 8% VIETNAM 5% % MALAYSIA 3% % UK CHINA 27% % USA 7% % KUWAIT 6% 364 3% UAE 5% 612 9% SAUDI ARABIA 5% 428-5% AUSTRIA CHINA 27% % RUSSIA 12% % SWITZERLAND 10% 404-3% TAIWAN 7% % UKRAINE 4% % ITALY CHINA 28% 1,060 33% RUSSIA 11% % USA 11% 1,119 23% TAIWAN 5% 1,215 17% SOUTH KOREA 3% % CZECH REP. RUSSIA 29% % CHINA 22% % TAIWAN 12% % SOUTH KOREA 6% % USA 5% % SPAIN CHINA 28% % RUSSIA 8% % USA 8% % ARGENTINA 5% % MEXICO 4% % IRELAND CHINA 40% % USA 32% 110 9% AUSTRALIA 3% 139-3% CANADA 3% 96 0% UAE 2% 285-7% GERMANY CHINA 35% 581 1% RUSSIA 10% % UAE 6% 778 1% THAILAND 4% % TAIWAN 4% % PORTUGAL CHINA 29% 1,671 37% BRAZIL 22% % ANGOLA 20% % RUSSIA 4% % USA 3% % Premier Vision 10

11 Currency vs Euro & GBP: Top Source Markets Currency movements: Last 52 Weeks CNY > EUR RUB > EUR CNY > GBP USD > EUR HKD > EUR USD > GBP Premier Vision 11

12 Arrivals Forecast In partnership with

13 Europe Overview UK NOV 16 JAN % Outlook NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % The pace of growth in the number of arrivals to the main European destinations continued to outpace the growth in sales and transactions in October, with an 11% increase in arrival numbers resulting in a 5% increase in sales, with the largest growth gaps in the UK and Spain. As highlighted on page six, this is likely attributable to a declining mix of High Net Worth travellers, and the reverse was true in October 2016 in the UK, as although there was a 6% decline in the number of arrivals, the devaluation of Sterling resulted in a 12% increase in sales. The 30% growth in arrivals numbers of South Korean tourists represented the highest gains amongst the top nationalities, which in contrast to the over-arching trends, also resulted in a 30% increase in both sales and transactions. Sales to American tourists fell below the gains in arrival numbers, likely attributable to continued currency fluctuations, however the Dollar has recently strengthened following reports of Q3 GDP growth exceeding expectations, and job creation being well above forecast in October. Opportunity The final two months of 2017 are predicted to see gains in arrival number of 11% and 7% in November and December respectively, with France expected to be main beneficiary with growth of 11% over the course of these two months, with the remaining destinations all predicted to see gains of between 7 to 10%. From a source market perspective, the conclusion of 2017 is predicted to be particularly boosted by increasing traveller numbers from South Korea, USA, Australia and Brazil, with double-digit gains expected from each of these source market nations. The current outlook suggests a downturn in the prospects for the start of 2018 with a 1% decline in arrival numbers. However it should be noted that this is impacted by the predicted 25% decline in Chinese tourists, which in turn is attributable to the timing of the Chinese New Year which fell on 28th January in 2017, and will be celebrated on 16th February in 2018, which will likely result in strong gains in February, with preliminary estimates from Forward Keys suggesting there is currently a 40% increase in booking numbers for February FRANCE NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % GERMANY NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % ITALY NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % SPAIN NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % Premier Vision 13

14 3 Month Arrivals Outlook NOV USA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % BRAZIL NOV 16 JAN NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % KUWAIT NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % UAE NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % INDIA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % AUSTRALIA FRANCE S. KOREA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % JAPAN NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % TAIWAN NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % THAILAND NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % Premier Vision 14

15 3 Month Arrivals Outlook USA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % BRAZIL NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % KUWAIT NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % UAE NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % INDIA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % AUSTRALIA S. KOREA JAPAN TAIWAN UK NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % THAILAND NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % Premier Vision 15

16 3 Month Arrivals Outlook USA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % BRAZIL NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % KUWAIT NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % UAE NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % INDIA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % AUSTRALIA S. KOREA JAPAN ITALY NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % TAIWAN NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % THAILAND NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % Premier Vision 16

17 3 Month Arrivals Outlook USA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % BRAZIL NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % KUWAIT NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % UAE NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % INDIA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % AUSTRALIA S. KOREA JAPAN SPAIN NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % TAIWAN NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % THAILAND NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % Premier Vision 17

18 3 Month Arrivals Outlook USA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % BRAZIL NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % KUWAIT NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % UAE NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % INDIA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % AUSTRALIA GERMANY S. KOREA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % JAPAN NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % TAIWAN NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % THAILAND NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % Premier Vision 18

19 3 Month Arrivals Outlook NOV USA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % BRAZIL NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % KUWAIT NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % UAE NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % INDIA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % AUSTRALIA SINGAPORE S. KOREA NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % JAPAN NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % TAIWAN NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % THAILAND NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % NOV 16 JAN % NOV % DEC % JAN % NOV 17 JAN % Premier Vision 19

20 Part of the Fintrax Group Fintrax Group Holdings Headquartered in Galway, Ireland Web: premiertaxfree.com/business If you would like to know more about Tax Free Statistics, please get in touch with your Premier Tax Free representative.