Prospects for international tourism

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1 Prospects for international tourism Project LINK UN DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy, NYC, USA October 211 John G.C. Kester Programme Manager, Tourism Trends and Marketing Strategies

2 The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) a specialized agency of the United Nations (UN) and the leading international organization in the field of tourism. It serves as a global forum for tourism policy issues and a practical source of tourism know how. plays a central and decisive role in promoting the development of responsible, sustainable and universally accessible tourism, paying particular attention to the interests of developing countries. encourages the implementation of the Global Code of Ethics for Tourism, with a view to ensuring that member countries, tourist destinations and businesses maximize the positive economic, social and cultural effects of tourism and fully reap its benefits, while minimizing its negative social and environmental impacts. intergovernmental organization with membership includes 162 countries and territories and more than 4 Affiliate Members representing the private sector, educational institutions, tourism associations and local tourism authorities. committed to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, geared toward reducing poverty and fostering sustainable development.

3 Tourism: concepts, forms and indicators Tourism comprises the activities of persons travelling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for not more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes Forms and indicators: same-day visitors and tourists (staying overnight at least one night) international and domestic inbound (destination) and outbound (origin) several indicators possible: arrivals, trips, nights, receipts, expenditure UNWTO 2 key indicators: ITA, ITR all purposes except paid work in the destination VFR, Other 27% International tourist arrivals by purpose, 28 Business and professional 15% Not specified 7% Leisure, recreation and holidays 51% Source: Methodology UNWTO and United Nations, Recommendations on Tourism Statistics

4 Results 21 International Tourist Arrivals 94 million +6.6% International Tourism Receipts US$ 919 billion (euro 693 bn) +4.7% (real terms)

5 International Tourism International tourist arrivals and receipts and market share (%) International Tourist Arrivals (ITA), 21* 94 million International Tourism Receipts (ITR), 21* US$ 918 billion Europe ITA: 477 million (51%) ITR: US$ 46 billion (44%) Americas ITA: 15 million (16%) ITR: US$ 182 billion (2%) Middle East ITA: 6 million (6%) Africa ITR: US$ 5 bn (6%) ITA: 49 million (5%) ITR:US$ 31 billion (3%) Asia and the Pacific ITA: 24 million (22%) ITR: US$ 249 billion (27%) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

6 21 compared to pre crisis peak year 28 International Tourist Arrivals (% change 21 over pre-crisis peak year 28) World Northern Europe Western Europe Central/Eastern E... Southern/Mediter. Eu. North-East Asia South-East Asia Oceania South Asia North America Caribbean Central America South America North Africa Subsaharan Africa Middle East Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) International Tourist Arrivals (absolute change 21 over pre-crisis peak year 28, million) World Northern Europe Western Europe Central/Eastern E... Southern/Mediter. Eu. North-East Asia South-East Asia Oceania South Asia North America Caribbean Central America South America North Africa Subsaharan Africa Middle East Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

7 Inbound tourism: World 21 International tourist arrivals and receipts, * International tourist arrivals (million) International tourism receipts (US$ billion) mn US$ 918 bn * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

8 International Tourism Arrivals and Receipts, World growth in receipts follows growth in arrivals closely 11 % change over previous year Asian financial and economic crisis: receipts grew slower 11S, SARS, economic downturn: receipts more affected Great recession : receipts more affected and slower to recover International tourist arrivals International tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices) -7 '9/89 '91/9 '92/91 '93/92 '94/93 '95/94 '96/95 '97/96 '98/97 '99/98 '/99 '1/ '2/1 '3/2 '4/3 '5/4 '6/5 '7/6 '8/7 '9/8 '1*/9

9 International tourism vs. other export categories 3, 2,5 International tourism: 3% of export of services 6% of exports of goods and services 2, US$ billion 1,5 1, International Tourism (BOP Travel & Passenger transport) Fuels Chemicals Food Automotive products

10 Tourism as Generator of prosperity Tourism as % of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) World wide Approx. 5% of GDP Advanced Diversified Economies 2-12 % of GDP Small Island Economies and Developing Economies up to 4% of GDP

11 Results 211

12 International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (% change) V shape decline of 15 consecutive months of negative growth % 3.8% +6.6% +4.5% * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

13 International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (million) * : 94 mn 29: 881 mn => 21: +59 mn 28: 916 mn => 21: +24 Jan Feb Mar Apr May mnjun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

14 Multi speed recovery International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution Advanced economies & Emerging economies (% change) months 1 months Advanced economies Emerging economies * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

15 21 and 211 year to date by subregion International Tourist Arrivals (% change over same period of the previous year) /9 11*/1 January - August World Northern Europe Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe Southern/Mediter. Eu. North-East Asia South-East Asia Oceania South Asia North America Caribbean Central America South America North Africa Subsaharan Africa Middle East Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

16 Sweden Major outbound markets International Tourism Expenditure (% change of same period year before, local currencies current prices) ytd Germany United States China United Kingdom France Canada Japan Italy Russian Federation Australia Saudi Arabia Netherlands Belgium Korea, Republic of Hong Kong (China) Spain Singapore Brazil Norway

17 Outlook and evaluation : World UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: World Better Equal Worse Prospects Evaluation V shape comparable to arrivals T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

18 UNWTO tourism business-cycle clock Prospects coming 4 months UNWTO tourism business-cycle clock Upswing May 23 Boom October Recession Downswing Evaluation past 4 months

19 Outlook

20 International Tourism: Forecast Forecast 211 World +6.6% +4.% to +4.5% Europe +3.2% +5% to +6% Asia and the Pacific +12.8% +5% to +6% Americas +6.4% +4% to +5% Africa +7.8% 2% to +1% Middle East +14.8% 1% to 5% Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

21 Outlook: World International tourist arrivals Forecast 211: 4.% to 4.5% 212: 2% to 4% change (%) * 212* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

22 Long-term trend

23 Tourism 22 Vision vs. actual trend World International tourist arrivals 1,6 1,4 1,2 million 1, 8 Tourism 22 Vision forecast Actual * mn 881 mn 94 mn Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

24 Tourism Towards 23 A broad research project in continuation of UNWTO s work in the area of long-term forecasting initiated in the 199s. Objectives: Assist UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans Provide a global reference on tourism future development Reinforce UNWTO s role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and activities Central in the study are the projections for international tourism flows in the two decades Data series on international tourist arrivals as reported by destination countries are used as the key indicator, taking into account subregion of destination, region of origin, mode of transport and purpose of visit for the period The quantitative forecast is based on a causal econometric model with international tourist arrivals as the dependent variable and as independent variables growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for traveller affluence and business travel potential, and also cost of transport

25 Growth in international tourism will continue, but at a more moderate pace International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year /' /'84 199/' /'94 2/'99 25/'4 21/'9 215/'14 22/'19 225/'24 23/'29 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

26 International tourist arrivals to increase by 43 million a year on average International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

27 International tourist arrivals to reach 1.8 billion by 23 International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, million 2, 1,75 1,5 1,25 1, source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

28 Emerging economy destinations to surpass advanced destinations in 215 Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies International Tourist Arrivals, million 1,25 1, emerging economies 75 5 advanced economies source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

29 Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivals Inbound tourism by region of destination 8 International Tourist Arrivals, million Europe Asia and the Pacific Americas Middle East Africa source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

30 Africa 3% Middle East 3% Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa to increase their shares 198 (277 mn) Americas 23% Asia and the Pacific 8% Americas 16% 21 (94 mn) Middle East 6% Asia and the Pacific 22% Europe 63% Africa 5% Americas 14% 23 (1.8 bn) Asia and the Pacific 3% Europe 51% Middle East 8% Africa 7% Europe 41%

31 North-East Asia will be the most visited subregion in 23

32 Europe continues to lead in international arrivals received per 1 of population

33 No major change in share by purpose of visit International tourism by purpose of visit International Tourist Arrivals, million 1, 9 Leisure, recreation and holidays VFR, health, religion, other Business and professional source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

34 Air transport will continue to increase market share, but at a slower pace International tourism by means of transport International Tourist Arrivals, million 1, by air 75 over surface source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

35 Travel between regions continues to grow slightly faster than within the same region International tourism by region of destination and origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, % within same region between regions source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

36 Asia and the Pacific will also be the outbound region that grows most Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated, million Africa Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East

37 Outbound tourism participation is highest in Europe and still low in Asia and the Pacific Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated per 1 population World Africa Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

38 What if assumptions change? Tourism Towards 23: global projection and sensitivity analysis International Tourist Arrivals, million 2, 1,75 1,5 1,25 Actual data Transport costs continue to fall (scenario 3) Central projection Faster rising cost of transport (scenario 2) A slower-than-expected economic recovery and future growth (Scenario 1) 1, source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

39 One-Page Tourism Towards 23 Global growth in international tourist arrivals to continue, but at a more moderate pace, from 4.2% per year (198 22) to 3.3% (21 23), as a result of four factors: The base volumes are higher, so smaller increases still add substantial numbers Lower GDP growth, as economies mature A lower elasticity of travel to GDP A shift from falling transport costs to increasing ones Tourism Towards 23 shows that there is still a substantial potential for further expansion in coming decades; established as well as new destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they do shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and economic benefits and minimising negative impacts Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and inclusive

40 Opportunities and challenges: how to make it possible Five key areas that mark the future: For many countries tourism represent a powerful tool for social and economic development and the reduction of poverty through the creation of job and enterprises, infrastructure development and the export revenues earned In order to tap this potential, it is essential to continue creating and raising awareness and to mainstream tourism in the political agenda Sustainability (social, economic and environment) is more important than ever, addressing issues such as energy dependency, climate change adaptation and mitigation, green economy, congestion management and risk management Keep track of the changing consumer: more experienced and demanding customers, demographic change (ageing, migration and diversification of family structure), changing values and lifestyles, from service economy to experience economy, etc. Enhance competitiveness in sense of shaping an adequate business environment: innovation, diversification of products, markets and segments, product development, ICT and technology in general, marketing and promotion, research, evaluation, human resources development, quality, etc.

41 Where to find information prepared by UNWTO? => Facts & Figures publications electronic: => UNWTO elibrary hardcopy: => UNWTO Infoshop => depositary libraries Affiliate Membership:

42 Tourism towards 23 / Global Overview Thank you very much for your attention! World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

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