The Tourism Market in Africa

Transcription

1 The Tourism Market in Africa Investour Fitur (Ifema), Madrid, Spain 2 January 211 John G.C. Kester Tourism Trends and Marketing Strategies Programme 1

2 UNWTO World Tourism Barometer Objective: monitoring short-term evolution of worldwide tourism Frequency: full issue 3 times a year (January, June, October) and two Interim Updates Permanent elements: Short term tourism data In focus UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts Economic data relevant for tourism 2

3 21: Multi-speed recovery International tourist arrivals, * mn million * 3

4 Inbound tourism Africa International tourist arrivals, * 6 49 mn million * 4

5 International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (% change) % -4.% +6.7% * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 5

6 International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution Advanced economies & Emerging economies (% change) Advanced economies Emerging economies * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 6

7 Growth driven by emerging destinations million International tourist arrivals by country of destination advanced economies emerging economies * Source: World Tourism Organization 7

8 Growth driven by emerging destinations 1 International tourist arrivals by country of destination share (%) advanced economies emerging economies * Source: World Tourism Organization 8

9 million 1, Most arrivals within own region International tourist arrivals by country of destination To emerging economies from other region To emerging economies from same region To advanced economies from other region To advanced economies from same region * Source: World Tourism Organization 9

10 International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution Africa (% change) % 3.1% +6.4% * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 1

11 Multi-speed recovery International Tourist Arrivals (% change over same period of the previous year) */8 21* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 11 Northern Europe Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe Southern/Mediter. Eu North-East Asia South-East Asia Oceania South Asia North America Caribbean Central America South America North Africa Subsaharan Africa Middle East

12 Is it just a dead cat bounce or a real new up-trend? 12

13 International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (million) * : 935 mn 29: 877 mn => 21: +58 mn 28: 913 mn => 21: +22 mn jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 13

14 International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution Africa (million) * : 48.8 mn 29: 45.8 mn => 21: +3 mn 28: 44.4 mn => 21: +4.4 mn jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 14

15 21 compared to pre-crisis peak year 28 International Tourist Arrivals (% change 21 over pre-crisis peak year 28) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 15 World Northern Europe Western Europe Central/Eastern E... Southern/Mediter. Eu. North-East Asia South-East Asia Oceania South Asia North America Caribbean Central America South America North Africa Subsaharan Africa Middle East International Tourist Arrivals (absolute change 21 over pre-crisis peak year 28, million) World Northern Europe Western Europe Central/Eastern E... Southern/Mediter. Eu. North-East Asia South-East Asia Oceania South Asia North America Caribbean Central America South America North Africa Subsaharan Africa Middle East Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

16 International Tourism International tourist arrivals and receipts and market share (%) International Tourist Arrivals (ITA), 21* 935 million International Tourism Receipts (ITR), 29* US$ 852 billion Americas ITA: 151 million (16%) ITR: US$ 165 billion (19%) Europe ITA: 472 million (5%) ITR: US$ 413 billion (49%) Middle East ITA: 6 million (6%) Africa ITR: US$ 41 bn (5%) ITA: 49 million (5%) ITR: US$ 29 billion (3%) Asia and the Pacific ITA: 24 million (22%) ITR: US$ 24 billion (24%) 16

17 Source: UNWTO Average annual growth rate 2-21 International tourist arrivals (% a year 2-21) Central America Subsaharan Africa North Africa South Asia South America World Central/Eastern Europe Southern/Mediter. Eu. Northern Europe Oceania Caribbean Western Europe North America Middle East South-East Asia North-East Asia

18 Inbound tourism Africa 4 International tourism receipts, * million US$ 29 bn * 18

19 Some 5 very diverse countries 19

20 Receipts by destination, 29 Africa 2 Morocco (23%) Tunisia 1% Tanzania (4%) Mauritius (4%) Ghana 3% Kenya 2% Uganda 2% Nigeria 2% Others 9% Madagascar 1% Cape Verde 1% Algeria 1% Ethiopia 1% Sudan 1% Angola 2% Senegal 2% Zimbabwe 2% Reunion 2% Botswana 2% Namibia 1% South Africa (26%) Source: UNWTO 29: US$ 29 billion Top 2: 91% Other 32 destinations: 9%

21 Arrivals by purpose of visit, 29 World Africa Leisure, recreation and holidays 51% VFR, Other 27% Leisure, recreation and holidays 56% VFR, Other 32% Not specified 7% Business and professional 15% Business and professional 12% Source: UNWTO 21

22 Arrivals to Africa by means of transport 25 million Air Surface Source: World Tourism Organization 22

23 tourism source markets of from a destination point of view Domestic tourism International tourism Intraregional tourism Interregional tourism Expatriates / diaspora Each has its own characteristics Sources are very much complementary All might be needed to reach critical mass All have a role to play in a balanced development of tourism 23

24 International tourism: Regions generally depend mostly on intra-regional tourism Inbound tourism by origin, 25 World 78 2 Europe Asia and the Pacific Americas Africa Middle East % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Same region From other regions not specified 24

25 Arrivals to Africa intra- versus interregional 25 million From Africa From other regions Source: World Tourism Organization 25

26 Arrivals to Africa by region of origin, 29 Africa 26 Europe (31%) Africa (43%) Asia and the Pacific (3%) Middle East (5%) Origin not specified 14% Americas (4%) Source: UNWTO

27 Arrivals to Africa by region of origin, 29 absolute numbers (million) Africa Europe Middle East Americas Asia and the Pacific Origin not specified Source: UNWTO 27

28 Outlook 28

29 Confidence confirmed UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts Better Equal Worse Prospects (before) Evaluation (after) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 29

30 Confidence confirmed Africa Better Equal Worse Prospects (before) Evaluation (after) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 3

31 Outlook 211: growth to continue at more moderate pace International Tourist Arrivals Forecast 211: 4% to 5% change (%) * 21* 211* -4. Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 31

32 Africa: growth picking up again in 21 International Tourist Arrivals Forecast 211: 4% to 7% change (%) * 21* 211* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 32

33 International Tourism 211 Forecast 21 Forecast 211 World +6.7% 4% to 5% Europe +3.2% 2% to 4% Asia and the Pacific +12.6% 7% to 9% Americas +7.7% 4% to 6% Africa +6.4% 4% to 7% Middle East +13.9% 7% to 1% Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 33

34 Actual Trend vs. Tourism 22 Vision Forecast World million 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, International Tourist Arrivals 534 mn Tourism 22 Vision forecast Actual * 1. bn 1.6 bn 935 mn Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 34

35 Actual Trend vs. Tourism 22 Vision Forecast Africa International Tourist Arrivals Tourism 22 Vision forecast Actual mn 77 bn 5 million mn mn Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 35

36 Thank you very much for your attention! World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) John Kester Tourism Trends and Marketing Strategies Programme 36

37 Thank you very much for your attention! World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) John Kester Tourism Trends and Marketing Strategies Programme 37

38 International Tourist Arrivals by Subregion Average Annual Growth Rate, Average Annual Growth Rate (number of countries between brackets) > 6.6 % (25) % (57) % (96) % (37) 38

39 Confidence confirmed 175 UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts Better Equal Worse Prospects Evaluation T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 39

40 Confidence confirmed Africa 175 Better Equal Worse Prospects Evaluation T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 4

41 Actual trend vs. Tourism 22 Vision forecast Africa International Tourist Arrivals Tourism 22 Vision forecast Actual mn 77 mn million mn 47 mn

42 29: African destinations International Tourist Arrivals Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Africa North Africa Algeria Morocco Sudan Tunisia Subsaharan Africa Botswana Cape Verde Kenya Mauritius Mozambique Rwanda change (%) Senegal Seychelles South Africa Swaziland

43 million 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 International Tourist Arrivals, Current situation and forecasts UNWTO Tourism 22 Vision Middle East Africa Asia and the Pacific Americas Europe Actual 536 mn 88 mn Forecasts 1 bn 1.6 b

44 % change over previous year International tourism Emerging destinations tend to grow faster and maintained differential in 29 Advanced economies Emerging economies AAG AAG '96/'95 '97/'96 '98/'97 '99/'98 '/'99 '1/' '2/'1 '3/'2 '4/'3 '5/'4 '6/'5 '7/'6 '8/'7 '9/'8 44

45 Preliminary conclusions considerable resilience and capacity of recovery against adverse conditions (economic downturns, terrorism, health threats, natural disasters, etc.) strong underlying demand, with still huge potential for growth: both from increase of participation and increased frequency: more often but shorter stays from current travellers but above all from new emerging middle classes sizable populations in developing countries currently still only take part in international tourism very limitedly many emerging economies show rapid economic growth resulting in increasing disposable incomes, a relative big share of this increase will be spent on tourism (domestic as well as international) 45

46 Thank you very much for your attention! World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) John Kester Tourism Trends and Marketing Strategies Programme 46