1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project? 2 African Economic Performance: Multifaceted Growth. 3 Africa and Globalization
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1 African Economic Outlook 2007 Measuring the Pulse of Africa Nicolas Pinaud, OECD Development Centre 经合组织 发展中心 Standard Chartered & the OECD Development Centre AFRICA AND CHINA: ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS PERSPECTIVES Shanghai 16 May 2007
2 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project? 2 African Economic Performance: Multifaceted Growth 3 Africa and Globalization 2
3 African Economic Outlook Measuring the Pulse of Africa Joint publication of the AfDB and the OECD Development Centre, supported by the EC 6th edition. Mobilising a network of in-country African experts & collaboration with WB, IMF, bilateral donors, A resource for policy makers, aid practitioners, investors, researchers, students, A tool for policy dialogue among African policy makers (nationally, APRM, ) and with their partners (EC, G8, OECD) 3
4 African Economic Outlook An innovative product, an evolving process Comprehensive, comparative and independent analysis of 31 countries and short-term macroeconomic forecasts. Annual focus 2003: Privatization 2004: Access to energy 2005: SME development 2006: Transport infrastructure 2007: Access to drinking water and sanitation Statistical annex, including innovative indicators 4
5 Coverage 2007: 31 African countries Tunisia Morocco Algeria Libya Egypt AEO 2007 Mauritania Niger Cape verde Senegal Gambia Mali Chad Sudan Eritrea Guinea-Bissau Sierra Leone Guinea Liberia Côte d'ivoire Burkina Faso Ghana Togo Benin Nigeria Cameroon Central African Republic Ethiopia Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Sao Tome et principe Gabon Congo Dem.Rep. Congo Rwanda Uganda Burundi Kenya Somalia 91% of GDP Angola Tanzania Malawi Comores 86% of population Namibia Zambia Botswana Zimbabwe Mozambique Madagascar Mauritius Swaziland South Africa Lesotho 5
6 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project? 2 African Economic Performance: Multifaceted Growth 3 Africa and Globalization 6
7 Africa continues to grow strongly 7 6 growth rate Africa Total OECD (e) 2007(p) 2008(p) Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007, OECD 7
8 490 The commodity boom has played an important role janv-01 juil-01 janv-02 juil-02 janv-03 juil-03 janv-04 juil-04 janv-05 juil-05 janv-06 juil-06 janv-07 Petroleum Copper Aluminium Gold Source: Worldbank
9 Vibrant & stable growth in oil-producing countries in 2006 (%) 8 Real GDP Growth Net Oil Exporters (e) Africa 2007 (p) 2008 (p) Angola Sudan Congo Egypt DRC Nigeria Libya Cameroon Algeria Gabon Chad Equatorial Guinea Source: African Economic Outlook 2007 Best performing net oil exporters in Real GDP Growth (%)
10 Growth gaining momentum in oil importers: Good harvests and booming metal prices Oil Importing Countries Africa Best Performing net oil importers in Real GDP growth (%) (e) 2007(p) 2008(p) Kenya South Africa Net Oil Importers Namibia Tunisia Africa Zambia Ghana Morocco Net Oil Exporters Uganda Botswana Mali Burkina Faso Tanzania Mozambique Average Real GDP Growth 2001/2006 (%) Sources: African Economic Outlook
11 but also fewer bullets & more ballots Presidential elections in 2006 Benin Cape Verde* Chad DRC* Gambia Madagascar Sao Tome et Principe* Seychelles Zambia* Uganda *Parliamentary elections as well Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007, Political Indicators 11
12 Despite strong growth rate, progress towards the MDGs remains slow Satisfactory Non Satisfactory 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Halve the % of Ensure that all people suffering children can from hunger Complete primary school Eliminate Gender disparity in all levels of education Reduce by 2/3 under 5 mortality rates Reduce maternal mortality by 3/4 Halt and reverse spread of Tuberculosis Halve the % of people without access to safe water Sources: African Economic Outlook
13 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project? 2 African Economic Performance: Multifaceted Growth 3 Africa and Globalization 13
14 Africa & globalisation Noteworthy developments New actors, new trends New foreign direct investors trade partners : the Asian Drivers (China & India), trade & direct investment; investors from Africa into Africa (South Africa, North Africa, Nigeria) Yield-hungry portfolio investors: Africa, the new investment / credit frontier? Source: World bank, Global Development Finance 14
15 Africa and Globalization:... a vulnerable continent? Africa s share in world trade and investment remains minimal (1.5 % & 4% resp.) and concentrated in raw materials Partnering with the Asian drivers: opportunities / risk of further specialization and of raising the bar for competing in labor intensive industries Source: UN COMTRADE 15
16 Africa and Globalization:... Investment in Oil and South Africa Foreign investment in Africa is concentrated in oil exporting countries and in South Africa % of World FDI % of Total FDI to Africa Total FDIs to Sub-Saharan Africa Total FDIs to Northern Africa FDIs to Sub-Saharan Main Oil Producers* & South Africa as a % of total FDIs to Africa (right axis) Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 16
17 Africa DRC Ethiopia Cameroon Zambia Algeria Mozambique Mali Sudan Bot swana Nigeria Eq. Guinea Africa and Globalization:... Slow progress in diversification The higher the index, the more diversified the economy Morocco Tunisia South Africa Egypt Tanzania Kenya Mauritius Uganda Senegal Lesot ho Cote d'ivoire Chad Angola Least diversified Ghana Africa Most diversified Source: African Diversification Index, African Economic Outlook
18 How can Africa become an active player in globalization? Increase capacity for trade and investment: maintain macroeconomic stability, improving business environment, promote diversification Use external resources more effectively: Capitalize on oil and minerals windfall gains to invest in health, education and access to basic services Use ODA as a catalyst: aid for trade is an instrument for enhancing Africa s integration in the global economy. 18
19 Aid must be used strategically % of GNI ODA ($ billion 2004) 0.33 ODA as a % of GNI (left scale) Total ODA (right scale) Total ODA to Africa (right scale) 19
20 Aid for trade is on the rise and Africa is the 2 nd largest recipient 20
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