Structure. Introduction

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Structure. Introduction"

Brianne Glenn
6 years ago
Views:

1 1

2 Introduction Structure Demographic Dynamics in Africa Determinants of the Demographic Transition Human Development Payoffs Jobs Payoffs Economic Growth in Africa Policies to Speed up the Demographic Transition Policies to Reap the Demographic Dividend 2

3 Total Fertility Rate Total Fertility Rate in Select World Regions, Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa North America South Asia World Source: Health, Nutrition and Population Statistics. The World DataBank

4 Great Heterogeneity in Fertility Transition Total Fertility Rates Mauritius Réunion Gabon Togo Senegal Malawi Niger South Africa Lesotho Ghana Comoros DRC Cape Verde Namibia Ethiopia Gambia Zambia Botswana Zimbabwe Congo Mozambique Chad Swaziland Côte d'ivoire Sierra Leone Uganda Sao Tome and Principe Burundi Guinea-Bissau Somalia Sudan Equatorial Guinea Mali Cameroon Liberia Eritrea Rwanda Mauritania Guinea Kenya Benin Madagascar Tanzania CAR Nigeria Angola Burkina Faso 4

health and education Longevity and saving Dividend not automatic extra

5 Fertility Reduction The Demographic Dividend Pure age structure effects Behavioral effects Female labor supply Investments in child health and education Longevity and saving Dividend not automatic extra resources must be productively employed Dividend must be earned by investments 5

6 Ratio of Working Age to Dependents Working Age Share Projections 3 Ratio of Working Age to Dependents Sub Saharan Africa 2.5 East Asia South Asia Year Source: World Bank Medium Fertility Variant 6

7 Probabilistic Projections of Fertility 7

8 Proximate Determinates of Fertility Source: Madhavan et al Data Source: Various DHSs. 8

9 Proximate Determinants of Fertility Change From Madhavan et al Data Source: Various DHS. 9

10 Policies to Promote Fertility Decline Decrease Child Mortality *World Development Indicator Data

11 Mortality Transition Under 5 Mortality per 1000 Births Below Réunion Namibia Comoros Guinea Chad Mauritius Botswana Tanzania Cameroon Cape Verde Madagascar Kenya Zambia Eritrea Gambia Nigeria Ghana Ethiopia Niger Sao Tome and Princip Swaziland Burundi Gabon Congo Burkina Faso South Africa Lesotho Equatorial Guinea Zimbabwe Togo Angola Senegal Mauritania CAR Sudan Côte d'ivoire Sierra Leone Liberia Somalia Uganda DRC Rwanda Mali Benin Guinea-Bissau Malawi Mozambique 11

12 Fertility Rates by Women s Education Data from various Demographic and Health Surveys.

13 Education of Women by Birth Year: Ethiopia Birth Cohort No Coverage Partial Coverage Full Coverage 13

14 Demographic Dividend is not Automatic Depends on effective policies in other areas Education Labor market Trade Governance Macroeconomic management Demography creates supply side increases in labor, human capital, and saving but there is still a need for jobs and investment

15 Fertility Rates by Mother s Education Data from various Demographic and Health Surveys.

16 Female Education Is a Major Diver of Fertility Rates 16

17 Education of Women by Birth Year: Ethiopia Birth Cohort No Coverage Partial Coverage Full Coverage 17

18 Male-Female Education Gap in Sub-Saharan Africa-- Secondary Enrollment 18

19 3 Infant Mortality Adjusted RRR: Age of Mother at Birth years years years years (Reference) years years years years

20 Short Birth Spacing Increases Infant Mortality 5 Adjusted Relative Risk by Birth Interval months months months months months months (ref) months months >95 months 20

21 Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa 6 Annual Growth Rates GDP & GDP per capita GDP growth GDP per capita growth 21

22 22

23 Economic Consequences The Demographic Dividend Working age share year boost Labor force per capita Investments in Child Health Education Female Labor Force Participation Savings 23

24 Yearly Cohort (Million) Increasing Youth Cohorts In Sub Saharan Africa Eastern Asia South-Central Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 24

25 Impact of large youth cohorts Youth Unemployment Underemployment in unpaid and low productivity jobs Slows industrialization and structural transformation, youth are absorbed in low productivity sectors such as agriculture Requires high levels of investment to maintain capital labor ratio 25

26 DRC Total Population Under Different Scenarios 26

27 DRC Working Age Share of the Population 27

28 DRC Average Years of Schooling of the Workforce 28

29 DRC Share of Workers not in Agriculture Key: 29

30 DRC PPP Income per Capita 30

31 Goals Polices Speed the Demographic Transition To empower women and allow fertility choices Child mortality, female education, social norms, access to family planning Realizing the Labor Force Dividend To absorb Youth Bulge FDI, domestic saving, natural resource revenues education, infrastructure, Industrialization (Agriculture and natural resources not sufficient) Realizing the Savings Dividend Harness the 2 nd dividend Improve policies and institutions for promoting domestic savings and investment 31

Table A.LPG1 : TOTAL LPG CONSUMPTION (Best available Estimates)

Table A.LPG1 : TOTAL LPG CONSUMPTION (Best available Estimates) 1000 MT 1 Burkina Faso 0.509 0.587 0.615 0.606 0.435 0.429 0.691 1.057 1.385 1.698 2.156 2.432 2.888 2 Cape Verde 4.058 4.268 4.988 5.259