The Tourism Market Trends, 2003 Edition series...7. I Main Features: The World II Quantitative Analysis of Tourism Results: World Overview...

Transcription

1 Table of Contents Pages The Tourism Market Trends, 2003 Edition series...7 I Main Features: The World...11 II Quantitative Analysis of Tourism Results: World Overview...47 II.1 Inbound Tourism...49 II.1.1 International Tourist Arrivals...49 II Overview Results II Purpose of Trip...53 II Means of Transport...55 II Countries by Volume of Arrivals...57 II Top Tourism Destinations...60 II Emerging Tourism Destinations...63 II.1.2 International Tourism Receipts...65 II Overview Results II Top Tourism Earners...69 II.1.3 Regional Highlights...71 II Europe...71 II Asia and the Pacific...75 II The Americas...78 II Africa...81 II Middle East...84 II.2 Origin and Destination...87 II.2.1 International Tourist Flows: Where To and From...87 II.2.2 Outbound Tourism Trends...92 II.2.3 International Tourism Expenditure...95 II.3 Tourism Sectors...97 II.3.1 Air Transport...97 II.3.2 Airport Passenger Traffic II.3.3 The International Meetings Market in 2002 By the International Congress and Convention Association (ICCA) II.3.4 Accommodation II.4 Past and Future II.4.1 Trend from 1950 to Present II.4.2 Differentiation and Diversification of Tourism II.4.3 Tourism and Economic Growth II.4.4 Short-term Prospects II.4.5 WTO Long-term Forecast Tourism 2020 Vision...132

2 III Tourism Topics III.1 New Directions for Cultural Tourism? by Prof. Greg Richards III.2 Hotel Industry Report 2002 results by Tim Bartlett and Manuel Riego, of TRI Hospitality Consulting (Madrid) III.3 Development of hotel room supply by Camilla Baston and Sabine Balzer, Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels III.4 A Case Study of the 2002 FIFA World Cup Korea/Japan by Prof. Jeong-Woo Byun and Prof. Choong-Ki Lee III.5 Cruise Tourism by WTO Secretariat Annex 1. International Tourist Arrivals...Annex International Tourism Receipts...Annex Methodological Notes...Annex Sources of Information...Annex Questionnaire on tourism development Annex - 31

3 The Tourism Market Trends, 2003 Edition series Tourism Market Trends is WTO s regular series of reports whose objective is to present international tourism trends in the world as well as in each region, subregion and country. The full series consists of one volume providing an overview of the tourism trends in the world and five regional volumes highlighting the international tourism trends in each of the regions. The structure of the series introduced in the 2001 edition, and further developed in the 2002 edition, has been maintained in the Tourism Market Trends, 2003 Edition, namely: The analysis of the evolution of international tourism worldwide and the accompanying aggregated data is presented in a separate volume World Overview and Tourism Topics. The second part of this volume is dedicated to a discussion of tourism topics of interest, which for this year are related to cultural tourism, the hotel industry and the impact of major events. Detailed information on the various regions of the world and on the individual countries and territories they are composed of is included in five regional volumes respectively covering Africa, Americas, Asia and the Pacific (integrating the WTO regions of East Asia and the Pacific and South Asia), Europe and the Middle East. Each regional volume opens with a first chapter Main Features containing an overview of the tourism development in the region based on the information provided by the National Tourism Administrations or National Tourism Organisations of the various countries in response to the survey conducted by the Market Intelligence and Promotion Section. Chapter II includes a more in-depth quantitative analysis of tourism trends in terms of tourism arrivals and receipts, as well as a breakdown of inbound by regions of origin, means of transport and purpose of visit. Concerning outbound tourism, data is also included on international tourism expenditure and outbound trips taken. Chapter III of the regional volumes includes results for the individual countries or territories of the region. For each country the following information is included (to the extent that data has been made available): A Profile table including the following data series: - different categories of International Arrivals (inbound tourism); - Tourism accommodation: number of rooms and nights spent (inbound tourism and domestic tourism); - Trips abroad (outbound tourism); - Receipts and Expenditure for International Tourism; - various indicators of an economic or general nature. The full response to the survey conducted by the WTO Secretariat for each individual country or territory that replied. The survey encompasses an evaluation of the past year (2002) as well as an outlook on the year Detailed tables on arrivals and nights broken down by country of origin. Each of the six volumes is concluded with an annex comprising overview tables of data on international tourist arrivals and international tourism receipts for all countries for which data are available, methodological notes on concepts and definitions, sources of the data used, and sources of information. World Tourism Organization 7

4 The WTO Secretariat is constantly striving to extend and enhance the content of the Tourism Market Trends series. Some of the changes and additions introduced in the 2003 edition are: The evolution of International Tourism Receipts has been analysed in local currencies in order to eliminate the distortion caused by exchange rate fluctuations with the US dollar. The tables on International Tourism Receipts in the Annex are included in both US dollar and euro. In the survey section for the individual countries in Chapter III, except for the regular questions on tourism development, a set of questions has been included paying special attention to Cultural Tourism. When using the reports the following considerations should be borne in mind: In accordance with the nature of the data provided by the countries and territories, the focus is on inbound tourism. When referring to outbound tourism trends, it should be taken into account that this information is largely derived from the same inbound-oriented data. The Secretariat covers outbound tourism in a separate series of reports, see the annex for more information. The emphasis in the analysis and the tables is on medium-term rather than on short-term development. For the short-term evolution of tourism WTO recently introduced the WTO World Tourism Barometer. The WTO World Tourism Barometer is published three times a year (January, June and October) and contains three permanent elements: an overview of short-term tourism data; a retrospective and prospective evaluation of tourism performance by the WTO Panel of Tourism Experts and selected economic data relevant for tourism; see the annex or the WTO website for more information. The reports generally reflect data as collected by the WTO Secretariat up to September 2003 (see the foot of each table). Data is often still provisional and can be updated or revised by the reporting countries in a later stage without further notice. When making references it is preferable always to attempt using the latest published data. In the world and (sub)regional aggregates (totals, subtotals), estimates are included to make allowance for the countries and territories with data still missing based upon data available for a part of the year or the general trend for the region. The data presented for the individual countries, however, reflect what has been reported for each country and does not include estimates of the WTO Secretariat. The Secretariat of the World Tourism Organization is aware of the limitations of the available statistical information on tourism. Despite the considerable progress made in recent decades, tourism statistics are often not uniform, because definitions and methods of data collection tend to differ. Every user of this information should bear in mind that the international comparability of statistical data is still not optimal. The contents of this report are prepared under the responsibility of the WTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Section. Except where otherwise indicated, the quantitative and qualitative information in this report is based on data supplied by the official institutions of the various countries and territories. The WTO Secretariat wishes to express its sincere gratitude for the reception given to this publication and for the cooperation it received in preparing this report. It welcomes the active involvement of countries, as well as their comments and suggestions on the design and contents of this series. 8 World Tourism Organization

5 I Main Features: The World World Tourism Organization 9

6 I Main Features: The World Introduction In the history books 2002 will probably go down as that relatively quiet year uncomfortably trapped between the traumas of September 11th and the Iraq War. But, as the tourism industry knows only too well, 2002 was far from problem free. There were three serious terrorist incidents with direct relevance to tourism. The Djerba attack occurred in the Spring and had a major impact on bookings to Tunisia especially but also to other North African destinations. The Mombassa attack was in late autumn and had an immediate but very short-lived impact. The Bali attack in October had by far the highest profile. There was massive media coverage. Tourism appeared to be the direct target, and the impact on the industry was dramatic. However, Indonesian tourism recovered remarkably well and ended the year just 2.3 per cent down, due to the very professional reaction from the authorities and to a world wide wave of sympathy and support many people saw this is an isolated and random attack and it did little to erode Bali s long-term deep-rooted image of tranquillity and spirituality. ITA - International Tourist Arrivals 703 million ITR - International Tourism Receipts US$474 billion Europe ITA: 400 million ITR: US$240 billion Americas ITA: 115 million ITR: US$114 billion Africa ITA: 29 million ITR: US$12 billion Middle East ITA: 28 million ITR: US$13 billion Asia / Pacific ITA: 131 million ITR: US$95 billion In 2002 Middle Eastern problems and the tense build up towards the war against terrorism created an uncertain atmosphere of the type which inevitably inhibits holiday planning, but more damaging by far was the persistent economic malaise which the world suffered throughout the year and is still suffering now. Oil prices rose sharply in the second half of 2002 and reached above US$30 per barrel at the beginning of The stock market slumped. GDP growth was sluggish (3 per cent world-wide in 2002 according to the International Monetary Fund - IMF). WTO figures have clearly demonstrated the close World Tourism Organization 11