Winning Strategies for African Airlines:
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- Preston Grant
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1 Winning Strategies for African Airlines: Aligning Governments with the Industry Agenda Thomas S. Windmuller Cairo, November 6, 2006
2 Air transport is critical to the global economy
3 Airlines are the US$450 billion heart of a value chain that supports US$2.9 trillion in economic activity
4 28 million jobs 471,000 jobs in Africa
5 Air transport is a critical industry Correct policy decisions essential for growth
6 Governments aligned with the industry agenda
7
8 We are an industry in crisis
9 We are an industry in crisis Since 9/11 airlines have lost over US$40 billion
10 We are an industry in crisis Since 9/11 airlines have lost over US$40 billion African carriers losing $800 billion in 2006; $900 million in 2007
11 We are an industry in crisis Change has never been more important
12 Airlines responded with efficiency Labour productivity increased 33%
13 Airlines responded with efficiency Sales/distribution costs dropped 10%
14 Airlines responded with efficiency Non-fuel unit costs reduced 13%
15 eaten by a rising fuel price
16 eaten by a rising fuel price 2001 fuel bill: US$43 billion 13% operating costs
17 eaten by a rising fuel price 2001 fuel bill: US$43 billion 13% operating costs 2006 fuel bill: US$115 billion 26% operating costs
18 eaten by a rising fuel price 2001 fuel bill: US$43 billion 13% operating costs 2006 fuel bill: US$115 billion 26% operating costs Increase from 2005 = US$24 billion
19 % sales US$ billion Moving back into profit as revenues boom Operating margin (LHS) Net losses (RHS) F 2007F -15 Source: ICAO / IATA AFRAA AGA 19 6 November 2006
20 One key uncertainty concerns oil prices $/b Jet Fuel and Crude Oil Price ($/barrel) Jet fuel price Crude oil price (Brent) Jan03 May03 Sep03 Jan04 May04 Sep04 Jan05 May05 Sep05 Jan06 May06 Sep06 Source: Platts, RBS AFRAA AGA 20 6 November 2006
21 $ million % operating costs Fuel bills likely to remain high in Fuel bill, % opex Fuel bill, $ million F 2007F 0 Source: IATA AFRAA AGA 21 6 November 2006
22 Increase Safety Reduce airline costs Intelligent Regulation
23 Safety Fuel Efficiency Liberalization Security External Costs Training
24 Safety - our top priority 2005 accident rate was the lowest ever
25 Accident Rate Accident Rate Reduction IATA Member Hull Loss Rate Industry Rate IATA Rate Trend Industry rate at 0.76 per million flights in IATA member accident rates 53% better than industry average at 0.35 per million flights Q Estimate AFRAA AGA 25 6 November 2006
26 Accident Rate Target AFRAA AGA 26 6 November 2006
27 Regional Safety AFRAA AGA 27 6 November 2006
28 2004 Western-built Jet Hull Loss Rate by Region Hull losses per million departures by region of operator, Western-built Jets 2004 World 0.78 AFRAA AGA 28 6 November 2006
29 2005 Western-built Jet Hull Loss Rate by Region North America 0.2 Europe North Asia 0.3 Mid-East/North Africa Asia-Pacific 3.8 Latin America/ 1.3 Caribbean 2.6 Africa Hull losses per million departures for operators based in the IATA region, western-built jets 2005 World 0.76 AFRAA AGA 29 6 November 2006
30 2006 Western-built Jet Hull Loss Rate by Region (Q1-Q3) North America 0.58 Europe 0.84 North Asia 0.0 Mid-East/North Africa 0.0 Asia-Pacific Latin America/ 0.0 Caribbean 0.82 Africa 0.0 Hull losses per million departures for operators based in the IATA region, western-built jets - Projected 2006 Q1-Q3 World 0.53 AFRAA AGA 30 6 November 2006
31 2006 Western-built Jet Hull Loss Rate by Region (Q & 10-Year Rate) North America Latin America/ Caribbean Europe Mid-East/North Africa Africa Russia 2 HL 0 HL Asia-Pacific North Asia Hull losses per million departures for operators based in the IATA region, western-built jets - Projected 2006 Q1-Q3 AFRAA AGA 31 World rate (thru Q3) Rates year rate 6 November 2006
32 Q Hull Loss Rate by Region (All Aircraft Types) North America 1.9 Europe 1.5 Russia 5.9 North Asia 1.0 Mid-East/North Africa Asia-Pacific 6.5 Latin America/ 1.5 Caribbean 3.4 Africa 6.0 Hull losses per million departures for operators based in the IATA region, all aircraft types (eastern/western, jet and turboprop) - Projected 2006 Q1-Q3 World 2.1 AFRAA AGA 32 6 November 2006
33 Six-point Safety Programme AFRAA AGA 33 6 November 2006
34 The IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA) is at the core of our efforts to further improve safety
35 The IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA) is the 1 st global standard for airline safety management
36 The IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA) will be a condition of IATA membership from 2008
37 Number of IAR Requests Audits Completed & Saved As at October 31, Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Completed Audits Registrations AFRAA AGA 37 6 November 2006
38 AFRAA AGA 38 6 November 2006
39 Partnership for Safety Systematic approach towards safety improvement
40 IATA s Partnership for Safety 17 IOSA Awareness Workshops 22 gap analyses
41 IATA s Partnership for Safety 17 IOSA awareness workshops 22 gap analyses Non-Member airline participation
42 IATA s Partnership for Safety
43 AFRAA AGA 43 6 November 2006
44 NO FLAGS OF CONVENIENCE AFRAA AGA 44 6 November 2006
45 The IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA) is at the core of our efforts to further improve safety Many governments are incorporating IOSA in their safety oversight
46 Many governments are incorporating IOSA in their safety oversight Egypt Madagascar South Africa Ghana Nigeria Ethiopia Kenya ACAC
47 All governments should incorporate IOSA in their safety oversight AOCs Foreign Operators Codeshares
48 All governments should incorporate IOSA in their safety oversight AOCs Foreign Operators Codeshares No cost for governments
49 Security is a top priority
50 We are a much more secure industry since 2001
51 01 The failure of BAA to handle capacity is not acceptable All airports must look at their contingency plans Ensure the goal is continued operations
52 02 We need standardisation and harmonisation Governments improved security after 2001 but missed the boat on harmonisation
53 03 Funding
54 03 Funding terrorism is a national security issue
55 03 Funding terrorism is a national security issue It is a government responsibility to protect its citizens and to pay the bill
56 03 Funding added measures since 2001 now cost airlines and passengers US$5.6 billion [a year]
57 we must also improve efficiency
58 Simplifying the Business
59 Simplifying the Business Make travel and shipping more convenient > Save US$6.5 billion
60 Simplifying the Business Bar coded boarding passes RFID for aviation E-freight 100% e-ticketing by 2007 Common use self-service kiosks > Save US$6.5 billion
61 AFRAA AGA 61 6 November 2006
62 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% ET progress by airlines September 2006 Global United States Europe North Asia The Americas Africa Asia Pacific MENA CIS Targets 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% AFRAA AGA 62 6 November 2006
63 African airlines issuing ET in BSPs % % % % 10 airlines with ET Nationwide Airlines SAA Air Austral % % % Kenya Airways Air Namibia Ghana International Air Seychelles % % % 0.00 % Sep- 05 Oct- 05 Nov- 05 Dec- 05 Jan- 06 Feb- 06 Mar- 06 Apr- 06 May- 06 Jun- 06 Jul- 06 Aug- 06 Sep- 06 Air Mauritius Precision Air Services Ethiopian Airlines and 31 airlines still to start ET AFRAA AGA 63 6 November 2006
64 AFRAA AGA 64 6 November 2006
65 AFRAA AGA 65 6 November 2006
66 Why is Interline ET difficult? With ET the systems do all the work Systems must be synchronised or the ET fails Each interline partnership is a separate task How to proceed faster Sign contracts for all IETs needed Use IATA MatchMaker and GBR Generator agent Pax Airline ET database Handlers Rely upon your System provider Partner airlines AFRAA AGA 66 6 November 2006
67 Why is Ground handling difficult? DCS system must be aligned with Airline s ETS But Ground Handlers often use other DCSs Airline must link its ETS to all the DCS systems they use This link is different according to the ET method Interactive mode Working Copy ETL Again give your System Provider the complete task Operating Carrier (ZZ) GH agreement (722h) AFRAA AGA 67 Ground Handler (XYZ) 6 November 2006
68 AFRAA AGA 68 6 November 2006
69 The Africa Challenge Can ET really work? No power/no telecoms Power/telecoms outages Completely manual stations AFRAA AGA 69 6 November 2006
70 The Africa Challenge Can ET really work? No power/no telecoms Power/telecoms outages Completely manual stations No more dependent with ET Use the PNL Have a contingency plan AFRAA AGA 70 6 November 2006
71 The Africa Challenge Can ET really work? No power/no telecoms Power/telecoms outages Completely manual stations No more dependent with ET Use the PNL Have a contingency plan No excuses - ET works everywhere AFRAA AGA 71 6 November 2006
72
73
74 Airlines are confident of ET Airlines with ET confident of reaching 100% In April they forecast Reaching 98% ET Having 2500 IET agreements Major airlines without ET say they too will make it But should they be so confident? AFRAA AGA 74 6 November 2006
75 Reality Check 65% ET (Sep) 30% of Interline coupons ET (Aug) 111 of 171 airlines w/o ET will issue ET Of 130 airlines with ET in Feb are increasing fast enough to exceed 99%, 29 are within 90-99%, 22 within 70-99% and 19 below 70% Will be well over 90% ET at end 2007 Time to stop paper or find alternative AFRAA AGA 75 6 November 2006
76 So what is IATA doing? Keep pressure to get to 100% Alerting CEOs to dangers Working with ET managers at airlines Warn of impact not having 100% ET on time Pressing Interline ET capability IET Workshops, MatchMaker, Super-Hub Capability, GBR Generator and examining a solution to the Residual (20%) Interline Problem Need cooperation of System Providers, GDSs, Ground Handlers to offer ET capability now Lobby Regulators to overcome ET hurdles Any other ideas? AFRAA AGA 76 6 November 2006
77 Fuel efficiency GO Teams Maximise fleet s fuel efficiency Flight operations Ground operations Engineering and maintenance AFRAA AGA 77 6 November 2006
78 Fuel efficiency GO Teams Maximise fleet s fuel efficiency Flight operations Ground operations Engineering and maintenance Savings of 3-8% of an airline s total fuel bill 4 African airlines completed 3 African airlines committed AFRAA AGA 78 6 November 2006
79 There is a role for Governments
80 Introducing new, shorter, direct routes ORAN UM998 Algiers MAIDUGURI NODJAMENA Red Carpet express North-South route saves the industry US$7.6 million total savings UM731 GBV RUDAS Pretoria
81 Supporting continuous descent approaches
82 Ensuring there is sufficient airport and airspace capacity
83 AFRAA AGA 83 6 November 2006
84 Airport and ATC Charges in Africa: Agenda for Change Meaningful consultation Non-discrimination Transparency Cost related charges Better Cost efficiency Global Press Briefing December 2004
85 The Reality in Africa Global Press Briefing December 2004
86 ANSPs $2,000 $1,500 European Average ASECNA African En-route Charges for a B $1,000 Nav Canada $500 $0 Sudan Nigeria European Avg. ASECNA South Africa Roberts Morocco Angola Algeria DR Congo Namibia Cape Verde Ghana Tunisia NavCanada Mauritius Botswana Libya Seychelles Kenya Egypt Zimbabwe Mozambique Uganda Somalia Tanzania Zambia Rwanda Ethopia Eriterea Malawi Djibouti Source Data: IATA En-route Charges Manual AFRAA AGA 86 6 November 2006
87 B Charges in USD Airports Benchmark of African Airports: Landing and Passenger Charges 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 WDH LOS, KAN, PHC, ABV EBB NBO JNB, DUR, CPT HRE DKR CMN, CAS KRT LUN MRU Algeria (All Apts) Source Data: IATA En-route Charges Manual AFRAA AGA 87 6 November 2006
88 The Reality in Africa Global Press Briefing December 2004
89 Training AFRAA AGA 89 6 November 2006
90 International Airlines Training Fund AFRAA AGA 90 6 November 2006
91 International Airlines Training Fund 20 courses in 2006, including 17 safety-related Close partnership with AFRAA AFRAA AGA 91 6 November 2006
92 International Airlines Training Fund 20 courses in 2006, including 17 safety-related Close partnership with AFRAA 29 African airlines 429 airline staff trained, 63 on scholarships AFRAA AGA 92 6 November 2006
93 We need a vision for a liberalised industry
94 2003 ICAO Fifth Air Traffic Conference agreed to a vision of progressive liberalisation
95 The agreement was a landmark 2003 Air Traffic Conference 5 agreed to a vision of progressive liberalisation
96 but the results were few 2003 Air Traffic Conference 5 agreed to a vision of progressive liberalisation
97 Yamoussoukro Declaration
98 Air transport is stuck with a 60 year-old bilateral system
99 Wake up to
100 We are a mass transport for 2.2 billion passengers
101 It is a different world
102 It is a different world and the rules must change
103 Governments have an essential role Safety Security Regulating monopolies where markets don t work
104 Governments have an essential role Safety Security Regulating monopolies where markets don t work
105 We don t need governments to determine markets Passenger demand should decide
106 Airlines are businesses
107 Airlines are businesses But the flag on the aircraft tail is so heavy
108 Airlines are businesses But the flag on the aircraft tail is so heavy it is sinking the industry
109 Freedom to run our business like a business
110 Africa must accelerate liberalisation AFRAA AGA November 2006
111 Only path to economic prosperity cxcxcxz AFRAA AGA November 2006
112 Airlift strategy of South Africa AFRAA AGA November 2006
113 Air transport is the most exciting industry in the world
114 African carriers have come a long way in difficult circumstances
115
116 We stand ready to assist you
117 AFRAA AGA November 2006
118 Drive the pace of change AFRAA AGA November 2006
119 We need your help
120 We need the leadership and support of you the CEO s AFRAA AGA November 2006
121 Without your drive and direction There is little we can achieve
122 With your commitment there is little that can stop us
123 AFRAA AGA November 2006
124
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