Tourism Trends, Outlook and Issues. John G.C. Kester. 6th UNWTO/PATA Forum on Tourism Trends and Outlook. Guilin, China October 2012 day 1

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1 Tourism Trends, Outlook and Issues 6th UNWTO/PATA Forum on Tourism Trends and Outlook Guilin, China October 212 day 1 John G.C. Kester Programme Manager, Tourism Trends and Marketing Strategies

2 World 211

3 Results 211 International Tourist Arrivals 99 million +5.% International Tourism Receipts US$ 1,3 billion (euro 74 bn) +3.9% (real terms)

4 Inbound tourism: World International tourist arrivals, * (million) 11 US$ 1,3 bn mn Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) International tourist arrivals (million) International tourism receipts (US$ billion) *

5 % change over previous year International Tourism Arrivals and Receipts, World '9/89 growth in receipts follows growth in arrivals closely '91/9 '92/91 International tourist arrivals '93/92 '94/93 '95/94 '96/95 Asian financial and economic crisis: receipts grew slower '97/96 '98/97 '99/98 '/99 '1/ 11S, SARS, economic downturn: receipts more affected International tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices) '2/1 '3/2 '4/3 '5/4 '6/5 '7/6 Great recession : receipts more affected and slower to recover '8/7 '9/8 '1/9 '11*/1 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

6 Asia and the Pacific 211

7 Inbound tourism: Asia and the Pacific 211 International tourist arrivals, * (million) 35 3 US$ 289 bn Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) * mn International tourist arrivals (million) International tourism receipts (US$ billion)

8 % change over previous year International Tourism Arrivals and Receipts Asia and the Pacific growth in receipts follows growth in arrivals closely International tourist arrivals International tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices) Asian financial and economic crisis 11S, SARS, economic downturn Great recession '9/89 '91/9 '92/91 '93/92 '94/93 '95/94 '96/95 '97/96 '98/97 '99/98 '/99 '1/ '2/1 '3/2 '4/3 '5/4 '6/5 '7/6 '8/7 '9/8 '1/9 '11*/1 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

9 Share 211 by region Asia and the Pacific, 218 mn, 22% Americas, 157 mn, 16% Africa, 5 mn, 5% Europe, 59 mn, 51% International Tourist arrivals Asia and the Pacific, 289 bn, 28% Middle East, 56 mn, 6% International Tourism Receipts Americas, 199 bn, 19% Africa, 33 bn, 3% Middle East, 46 bn, 4% Europe, 463 bn, 45%

10 Inbound tourism: Asia and the Pacific 211 Healthy growth in all sub regions International tourist arrivals, * (million) North-East Asia South-East Asia South Asia Oceania * 211* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

11 Inbound tourism: Asia and the Pacific 211 Healthy growth in all sub regions International tourism receipts, * (US$ billion) North-East Asia South-East 6 56 Asia Oceania South Asia * 211* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

12 212

13 International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (% change) V-shape decline of 15 consecutive months of negative growth % -3.8% +6.6% +5.% +4.2% * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

14 International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (million) * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

15 Emerging destinations suffered less in the crisis and recovered quicker International Tourist Arrivals (% change) Advanced economies Emerging economies 7/6 8/7 9/8 1/9 11/1 12*/11 YTD Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

16 Asia and the Pacific 212

17 International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution Asia and the Pacific (% change) V-shape decline of 12 consecutive months of negative growth % -1.6% +13.2% +6.4% +7.3% * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

18 International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution Asia and the Pacific (million) * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

19 211 and 212 year to date by subregion International Tourist Arrivals (% change over same period of the previous year) /1 12*/11 January - June -7-1 World Northern Europe Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe Southern/Mediter. Eu. North-East Asia South-East Asia Oceania South Asia North America Caribbean Central America South America -9 North Africa Subsaharan Africa Middle East Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

20 International Tourism Expenditure (% change of same period year before, local currencies current prices) Germany United States C Major outbound markets BRICs are hot R B China United Kingdom France Canada Russian Federation Italy Japan Australia Belgium Brazil Singapore Netherlands Korea, Republic of * Hong Kong (China) Spain Norway Sweden Switzerland India Malaysia I

21 UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index

22 Confidence weakening but still positive UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: World 175 Better Equal Worse Prospects (before) Evaluation (after) T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

23 but on the rise again UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: Asia and the Pacific 175 Better Equal Worse Prospects (before) Evaluation (after) T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

24 Outlook

25 Outlook: World International tourist arrivals Forecast 212: 3% to 4% change (%) * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

26 Outlook: Asia and the Pacific International tourist arrivals Forecast 212: 4% to 6% change (%) * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

27 Tourism Towards 23 Advance Edition: Key Results 5th UNWTO-PATA Forum on Tourism Trends and Outlook Guilin, China, 27 October 211 Michel Julian, UNWTO Tourism Trends and Marketing Strategies Programme

28 International tourist arrivals to reach 1.8 billion by 23 International tourism, World 2, International Tourist Arrivals, million 1.8 bn 1,75 1,5 1.4 bn 1,25 1 bn 1, source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

29 Emerging economy destinations to surpass advanced destinations in 215 Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies 1,25 International Tourist Arrivals, million 1, emerging economies 75 5 advanced economies source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

30 Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivals Inbound tourism by region of destination 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, International Tourist Arrivals, million Africa Middle East Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

31 Asia and the Pacific

32 International tourist arrivals to increase by 17 million a year on average International Tourism, Asia and the Pacific International tourist arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million Average increase million a year mn a year mn a year source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

33 Asia and the Pacific : Intl tourist arrivals still to grow from 2 mn to over 5 mn International Tourism, Asia and the Pacific 6 International tourist arrivals, million 535 mn mn 3 24 mn Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

34 Asia and the Pacific by subregion Asia and thepacific: Inbound tourism by subregion of destination 3 International tourist arrivals, million North-East Asia 25 2 South-East Asia South Asia Oceania Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

35 South Asia subregion with fastest growth (%) International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals, average annual growth % South Asia West and Central Africa East Africa source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Central America South-East Asia North-East Asia South America North Africa Middle East Southern Africa Central/Eastern Europe Oceania Southern/Mediter. Eu. Caribbean Western Europe Northern Europe North America

36 NE Asia subregion with fastest growth (abs.) International tourism by (sub)region of destination 1 International tourist arrivals, average absolute change over previous year, million North-East Asia South-East Asia Southern/Mediter. Eu. source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Middle East Central/Eastern Europe Western Europe North America South America North Africa East Africa South Asia Northern Europe Southern Africa West and Central Africa Central America Caribbean Oceania

37 North-East Asia will be the most visited subregion in 23 International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals, million North-East Asia Southern/Mediter. Eu. Western Europe South-East Asia Central/Eastern Europe Middle East North America Northern Europe South America North Africa East Africa South Asia Caribbean Southern Africa Central America West and Central Africa Oceania source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

38 International tourism by (sub)region of destination 12 1 Europe continues to lead in international arrivals received per 1 of population International tourist arrivals received per 1 of population Western Europe Southern/Mediter. Eu. Northern Europe Caribbean Central/Eastern Europe Middle East Southern Africa Oceania Central America North Africa South-East Asia North America North-East Asia South America East Africa West and Central Africa South Asia source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

39 Share in the world

40 Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa to increase their shares 198 Africa 3% Middle East 3% Americas 23% Asia and the Pacific 8% Americas 16% 21 Middle East 6% Asia and the Pacific 22% Europe 63% Africa 5% Americas 14% 23 Asia and the Pacific 3% Europe 51% Middle East 8% Africa 7% Europe 41%

41 Asia and the Pacific outbound tourism also growing at a faster pace Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, % 7 6 Europe Asia and the Pacific 2 Americas 1 Middle East Africa source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

42 Bulk of arrivals in Asia and the Pacific intraregional, mkt shares not to vary much Asia and the Pacific: Inbound tourism by region of origin International tourist arrivals, million Africa Middle East Americas Europe Asia and the Pacific Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

43 Tourism Towards 23 in one page Tourism Towards 23 shows that there is still a great potential for further expansion in coming decades; emerging as well as established destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and economic benefits and minimising negative impacts Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and inclusive

44 Asia and the Pacific: how to make it possible Opportunities - natural resources - cultural resources - human resources - price competitiveness - large populations fuelling intrareg. travel - economic dynamism - travel facilitation - planning & product development Challenges - infrastructure development - congestion management - quality - marketing and promotion - e-marketing - image building and branding - coordination, cooperation, collaboration

45 International Tourist Arrivals received (million) UNWTO Tourism Towards 23: Actual trend and forecasts ,8 1,6 Actual Forecasts 1.8 bn 1,4 1,2 1, 8 Africa Middle East Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe 94 mn 1.4 bn

46 Asia and the Pacific towards 23 million additional international tourist arrivals on average a year of the 43 million worldwide

47 Tourism towards 23 / Global Overview Thank you very much for your attention! World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

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