Ottawa-Gatineau s Economic Outlook

Transcription

1 Ottawa-Gatineau s Economic Outlook Slow Growth, but Growth Nonetheless Mario Lefebvre Director, Centre for Municipal Studies The Ottawa Real Estate Forum October 11, 2012

2 Canadian Outlook The Canadian economy has rebounded nicely from the recession. The job level is now greater than its pre-recession peak and our commodities are in high-demand. But the recession has left scars, including government deficits. Moreover, consumers debt level has never been so high. Overall, a soft domestic economy and turbulent external environment will hold GDP growth to 2.2% in 2012 and 2.4% in 2013.

3 The Loonie and the Oil Price WTI $US, $US/$C Dollar (left) Oil Price (right) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; U.S. EIA; Statistics Canada.

4 Employment Growth Canada, ,000 jobs lost Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

5 Interest Rates (90-Day T-Bill) Quarterly Canada U.S Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; BEA; Statistics Canada.

6 Total Consumer & Mortgage Credit (Debt) as a Per Cent of Disposable Income Quarterly 1990Q1 to 2012Q1 Sources: Statistics Canada; Bank of Canada.

7 Mortgage and Consumer Debt Service (share of disposable income 1990:1 to 2012:2) Recession 90:2 91:1 Recession 08:4 09:2 Source: Statistics Canada.

8 5.0 Real Consumer Spending Growth Canada Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

9 Uneven Growth in Global Economy (% change, real GDP) Japan EU North America Latin America Asia Pacific Asia Pacific (excl Japan) Source: Consensus Economics

10 Western Europe (per cent change, real GDP) UK Spain Italy Germany France Source: Consensus Economics.

11 Federal and Provincial Gov t Balances (as a Share of GDP ) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; various government budgets.

12 Federal and Provincial Gov t Debt (as a Share of GDP ) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; various government budgets.

13 Real GDP Growth Rate Canada Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

14 Ottawa-Gatineau: Highlights A belt-tightening exercise by the federal government is never good news for the Ottawa-Gatineau economy. Job cuts by the federal government will limit the amount of newcomers to the area, putting a lid on housing demand. Prospects are brighter for the construction sector, particularly on the non-residential side of the industry.

15 Labour Market Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) Employment (000s) Unemployment Rate Source: Statistics Canada.

16 Employment Growth Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

17 Public Administration Employment Growth Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

18 Unemployment Rate Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

19 Disposable Income Growth Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

20 Retail Sales Growth Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

21 Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Ottawa ( ) Seller s Market Balanced Market Buyer s Market Source: Canadian Real Estate Association.

22 Existing Home Price, New Housing Price Index Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) 370, , , , , ,000 Existing New Sources: Canadian Real Estate Association; Statistics Canada..

23 Population growth Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 15f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

24 Housing Starts Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5, f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC.

25 Non-Residential Building Permits Ottawa-Gatineau (millions $, 3MMA) Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

26 Construction Output Growth Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

27 Manufacturing Output Growth Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

28 Business Services Output Growth Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

29 Public Administration Output 5.0 Growth Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

30 Real GDP Growth Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

31 Ottawa vs. East (Real GDP Growth, 2012) Hamilton Toronto Québec Halifax Montréal Ottawa-Gatineau Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

32 Ottawa vs. West (Real GDP Growth, 2012) Edmonton Calgary Regina Vancouver Saskatoon Winnipeg Victoria Ottawa-Gatineau Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

33 Ottawa vs. East (Real GDP Growth, 2013) Toronto Hamilton Québec Halifax Montréal Ottawa-Gatineau Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

34 Ottawa vs. West (Real GDP Growth, 2013) Calgary Saskatoon Edmonton Regina Vancouver Victoria Winnipeg Ottawa-Gatineau Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

35 Ottawa vs. East (Real GDP Average Annual Growth, ) Toronto Hamilton Montréal Halifax Ottawa-Gatineau Québec Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

36 Ottawa vs. West (Real GDP Average Annual Growth, ) Calgary Edmonton Saskatoon Vancouver Regina Winnipeg Victoria Ottawa-Gatineau Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

37 The Conference Board of Canada