State of the Economy St. John's Metro

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1 State of the Economy St. John's Metro

2 Published by: Department of Economic Development, Tourism & Culture City of St. John's Although every effort has been made to ensure the completeness and accuracy of the information contained in this publication, the City of St. John s does not guarantee, warrant or make any representations, express or otherwise, that the information contained herein is complete and correct. All numbers are nominal unless otherwise stated. Publication date: April 2013

3 St. John's is an economic driver. St. John's CMA s 1 share of total provincial GDP is about 50%. 50.0% St. John's CMA Share of Provincial GDP CMA Other NL 50.0% In 1992, 32.1% of the NL population lived in the St. John's CMA. By 2012, that had risen to 39.1% 1 St. John s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) is a geographic area defined by Statistics Canada that includes St. John s and several neighbouring communities. St. John s CMA may also be referred to as St. John s metro throughout this document. Please refer to the following website for a map of St. John s CMA Source: Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)

4 St. John's metro economic indicators positive e Retail trade +6.5% +6.9% Labour force +3.2% +4.3% Employment +4.5% +3.6% Unemployment rate 6.6% 7.2% Personal income +7.7% +7.8% Real GDP (2007$M) +1.1% -0.4% Table shows change from previous year data is a preliminary estimate Source: Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)

5 Economic growth and oil production Real GDP growth in the St. John s CMA is more sensitive to changes in oil production. The majority of oil industry activity is resident in the area, therefore most of the province s oil-related Real GDP is allocated to the CMA. Source: Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)

6 Source: CNLOPB Oil production is projected to decline in the long term, impacting local and provincial economies.

7 Millions of dollars in proposed and ongoing projects for St. John's. Project $20 M Henry Bell Developments - two condo projects including parking garage, Duckworth/Henry St. $150 Long term care facility, Pleasantville $100 Convention Centre expansion, New Gower St. * $53 Fortis office building, New Gower St./Springdale St. $50 Eastport Properties office building, Water St. $46 Deacon Investments office building, Job St. $40 Hotels (Water St., Kenmount Rd., Stavanger Dr.) $38 St. John's International Airport, Cat 3 Landing System $26 Note: Table is not a complete list of all projects. * Value of Convention Centre expansion main building Source: City of St. John's

8 Major projects in the province are making significant investments and boosting the local economy. Hebron Offshore Oil Development, $14 B Vale Long Harbour Nickel Processing Facility, $4.25 B ($US) Hibernia Southern Extension Unit, $1.7 B Lower Churchill Phase 1, Muskrat Falls, $6.2 B Iron Ore Company of Canada Mine Expansion, $828 M Suncor Energy / Terra Nova Expenditures, $254 M Husky Energy / South White Rose Extension, $1.2 B Tata Steel Direct Shipping Iron Ore Project, $630 M Alderon Iron Ore Corp. Kami Project, $1.273 B Note : This is not a complete list of Major Projects. Source: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)

9 In 2012, the CMA recorded its 11 th consecutive annual population increase. 210 Population - St. John's CMA ,038 Thousands , Source: Population estimates, Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)

10 The population of the St. John s CMA increased 13.9% between the 2001 and 2011 census years. During this time period the population of the communities surrounding the capital city grew by 23.1% while the population of the City of St. John s increased 7.0%. Source: Statistics Canada

11 Young Children, Young Adults and Seniors in St. John's CMA had a faster population growth rate than Canada between 2006 and Population Growth Rates by Age Category, St. John's CMA Compared to National Level, (%) CMA 16.5 Can Age Category Source: Statistics Canada

12 Approximately one in four (26.9%) students enrolled at MUN in 2012 were from out of province (4,905 out of 18,236). The number of other Canadian students enrolled at MUN doubled since Meanwhile, the number of international students increased by 195% during the same time period and increased 19.0% in Number of International Students and Other Canadian Students Enrolled at MUN Other Canadian International Source: Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador (MUN).

13 We have strengths in several areas. Offshore Energy Fueling local economy, St. John's main service centre. Ocean Technology One of the fastest growing segments of the provincial economy, based largely in the metro area. Tourism Iconic tourism destination, growth sector. Arts & Culture A cultural capital.

14 We are a city of small business. Half of our businesses have less than 5 employees. Source: Statistics Canada

15 Increasing labour force participation key component in long term economic growth. 72.3% 64.7% 66.7% 63.4% Source: Statistics Canada

16 Annual unemployment rate in the St. John's CMA shows steady decline since The 2012 unemployment rate is half of the rate reported in Annual Unemployment Rate (%) St. John's CMA Source: Statistics Canada

17 Total employment in the St. John s CMA increased by 10,000+ over the past three years and almost 30,000 since The majority of employment growth over the past three years was full-time (97.1%). The number employed as a percentage of the total labour force increased from 86% in 1996 to 92.8% in Thousands Total # of People Employed in St. John's CMA Source: Statistics Canada

18 Incomes are on the rise, increasing 51% since January 2005, 13.4% over the past two years and 6.2% in the past year. Average January Weekly Earnings St. John's CMA $1,000 $900 $913 $800 $700 $658 $748 $781 $805 $860 $600 $605 $640 $ Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM)

19 St. John s had the largest increase in median family incomes among major Canadian cites between 2006 and The median family income in the St. John s CMA rose by $15,110 or 23.9% compared to the Canadian average increase of $6,260 or 9.8%. Source: Statistics Canada Median total income, all census families, by metropolitan area $ $ Change % Change Year to10 06 to Ottawa 84,000 90,990 94,700 10, % Calgary 83,500 91,570 89,490 5, % Edmonton 79,300 88,190 87,930 8, % Regina 72,200 81,480 84,890 12, % Saskatoon 68,300 77,740 80,570 12, % St. John's 63,100 72,120 78,210 15, % Halifax 67,600 74,040 76,500 8, % Quebec 67,100 73,780 76,450 9, % Winnipeg 64,700 70,510 72,050 7, % Toronto 63,800 68,120 68,110 4, % Vancouver 62,900 68,670 67,090 4, % Montreal 60,800 65,660 67,010 6, % Canada 63,600 68,860 69,860 6, %

20 Driven by gains in personal income and high levels of consumer confidence, retail sales have increased by $1.72 billion over the past 10 years (+86.7%). Retail Sales - St. John's CMA Billions $ Source: Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)

21 The average MLS 1 housing price more than doubled over the last 6 years (+104.7%), and increased 6.3% in Average MLS Housing Price in St. John's Thousands $ MLS (Multiple Listing Service) is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association. Source: CMHC, adapted from MLS data.

22 St. John's CMA housing starts increased 167% since 1999 and increased 12.0% to 2,153 units in Meanwhile, housing starts in the City of St. John s increased 5.5% in 2012 to a record 1,001 starts. Housing Starts - St. John's and CMA CMA St. J ohn's Note: CMA housing starts include St. John's housing starts. Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

23 Although vacancy rates have increased slightly the last few years, the rate remains low from a historical perspective. 20 Vacancy Rates - St. John's (%) Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

24 The value of permits in the City of St. John's increased 12.1% to $432.4 million in The increase was lead by commercial permits, up 116% or $118.3 million to $220.1 million. Meanwhile, the value of Government permits declined 54.5% to $16.3 million and the value of residential permits declined 21.0% to $196.0 million. Source: City of St. John's Com = Commercial Permits, Res = Residential Permits; Gov = Government Permits

25 Office vacancy rates have declined substantially since Class A* vacancy is currently at 0%. 1st Quarter Office Market Vacancy - St. John's CMA (%) Class A Overall * Class A buildings in St. John's are: Baine Johnson Building, Fort William Building, Cabot Place, and Scotia Centre. Source: Cushman Wakefield Atlantic

26 Total port cargo has increased 3.5% over the last ten years while vessel arrivals have increased by 29.7%. Note: vessel arrivals exclude non-commercial, e.g., Department of National Defence and small commercial vessels entering the Port of St. John s. Source: St. John's Port Authority

27 Passenger traffic reaches record high at St. John's International Airport. The number of passenger movements increased 5.5% in 2012 to approximately 1.45 million. Thousands Airline Passenger Movements at St. John's International Airport (000's) PAST 10 YEARS St. John's 66.6% PAST 3 YEARS St. John's 18.2% PAST YEAR St. John's 5.5% Source: St. John's International Airport Authority and Transport Canada

28 Tourism revenues in the St. John's CMA rise 65.5% over the past 10 years. Source: Provincial Department of Tourism Culture and Recreation and City of St. John's

29 St. John's CMA hosted 386,713 out of province visitors in 2011, majority arrive by air. Source: Provincial Department of Tourism Culture and Recreation and City of St. John's

30 St. John's had the 3 rd highest hotel occupancy rate (72.5%) in Canada in The St. John's rate increased 0.7 percentage points from 71.8% in Saskatoon Regina St. John's Calgary Thunder Bay Ottawa Vancouver Edmonton Toronto Winnipeg Montreal Halifax Victoria Canada Quebec City Moncton Alberta Resorts Whistler Hotel Occupancy Rates (%) Major Canadian Destinations Note: Occupancy rates reflect all rooms sold for all purposes including tourism, conventions, business etc. Source: Destination St. John s and PKF Consulting Inc.

31 Number of convention delegates remained stable in 2012 with 22,149 delegates. 40 # Convention Delegates - St. John's Thousands Source: Destination St. John's.

32 St. John's CMA has a higher percentage of its labour force in arts occupations (0.98%) than the Canadian average (0.77%). The St. John's labour force also has a higher percentage of cultural workers (3.9%) than Canada (3.3%). Source: Analysis by Hill Strategies Research based on a 2006 census custom data request

33 Perceptions are changing. [St. John s].feverish activity in the oil and gas sector has helped lift St. John s onto the A list of cities St. John s record-high productivity has recently outpaced that of Calgary and Edmonton. City Magnets ll: Benchmarking the Attractiveness of 50 Canadian Cities Conference Board of Canada, January 2010 "As a have-not, there was a lot of psychological baggage. Now, a positive change is starting to take place in the perception of ourselves as a distinct society. What was despair, not knowing what ll happen because of the fishery closing, has turned to hope. Curtis Andrews in Up! Magazine and St. John's Newfoundland where they have initiated world class educational programs to support their offshore energy development. Jack B. Moore, CEO, Cameron St. John s has begun to rival Halifax as Atlantic Canada s hipster nexus thanks to a network of artists, musicians and entrepreneurs. Steven English, Arrival Magazine, 2009

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