The Canadian Retail Real Estate Market Real Estate Forum. Presented to:
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1 The Canadian Retail Real Estate Market Presented to: 2012 Real Estate Forum Presented by John G. Crombie National Retail Director Cushman & Wakefield Ltd
2 Retail Real Estate Canadian Retail Market Basic Facts
3 Retail in Canada Basic Facts! Retail Sales in Canada In 2011, retailers sold an estimated $456.3 billion worth of goods and services. Record high sales of Food & Beverage in 2011 with $104.3 billion. Employment Retail sector is Canada s largest employer. 12.5% of Canadian jobs Retail Stores in Canada 220,000 retail establishments 2,724 shopping centres (72 super regional) 505 million SF (average size Shopping Centre 186,000 SF) 487 power centres million SF (average size Power centre 333,000 SF) Top 100 Retailers in Canada control over 70% market share <50% of Canada s Leading Retailers are Foreign Owned & Operated (largely US) Top 5 Foreign Owned Retailers in Canada Wal-Mart, Costco, Safeway, NRDC Equity Partners (HBC) & Home Depot Controls 19% of total retail sales (1,423 stores) 2
4 Retail Real Estate Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales - Canada & US
5 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Confidence Index (2002=100) Canadian Consumer Confidence Three Year Trend Source: J.C. Williams 4
6 Consumer Confidence (2002=100) Canada vs. U.S. Consumer Confidence Canada U.S Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan. 12 Oct. 11 Jul. 11 Apr. 11 Jan. 11 Oct. 10 Jul. 10 Apr. 10 Jan. 10 Oct. 09 Jul. 09 Apr. 09 Jan. 09 Oct. 08 Jul. 08 Apr. 08 Jan. 08 Oct. 07 Jul. 07 Apr. 07 Jan. 07 Oct. 06 Jul. 06 Apr. 06 Jan. 06 Oct. 05 Jul-05 Apr-05 Jan-05 Source: J.C. Williams/ICSC 5
7 July January July January July January July January July January July (billions) Canadian Retail Sales Seasonally Adjusted $40 $39 $38 $37 $36 $35 $34 $33 $32 $31 $30 Source: Statistics Canada
8 Canadian Retail Sales Geography % of sales in Western & Central Canada Ontario (35.4%) Western Canada (34.4%) Alberta = 14.1% British Columbia = 13.1% Manitoba = 3.6% Saskatchewan = 3.6% Quebec (22.4%) Eastern Canada (7.5%) Nfld & Labrador = 1.7% PEI = 0.4% Nova Scotia = 2.9% New Brunswick = 2.4% Northern Canada (0.4%) Yukon = 0.1% NW Territories = 0.2% Nunavut = 0.1% Source: Statistics Canada, 7
9 Canadian Retail Sales by Province August Year Over Year % Change 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% British Columbia Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic Canada Source: J.C. Williams 8
10 Retail Sales Productivity Canadian Malls Approximately $580 PSF $650 $600 $550 $500 $450 $ Source: ICSC Research 9
11 Retail Sales Productivity U.S. Malls Approximately $440 PSF $480 $460 $440 $420 $400 $380 $360 $340 $ Source: ICSC Research 10
12 Recent Arrivals or Expressing Interest in Canada American Retailers European Retailers Source: Cushman & Wakefield
13 Foreign Arrivals in Canada Source: Ryerson University CSCA 12
14 Square Feet/Capita Canadian Retail Space Square Feet Per Person Shopping Centres & Big Box Stores (excludes street front) Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Toronto Montreal Canadian Average Source: Ryerson University CSCA 13
15 Retail Inventory by Age Toronto & Ontario 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Toronto Ontario Source: Cushman & Wakefield
16 Technology Affecting Our Industry Omni-Channel Strategies BRICK & MORTAR MOBILE QR CODE-DRIVEN VIRTUAL SUPERMARKETS (South Korea Subway Stations) Evolving multi-channel dynamics increase the importance of a cohesive omni-channel strategy BRICK & MORTAR INTERNET AMAZON.COM STORE BRICK & MORTAR SOCIAL MEDIA POP-UP STORE 15
17 Retail Real Estate Rental Rates, Vacancy Rates
18 National Retail Rental Rates 2010 vs. 2011/12 Retail Product 2010 Average Net Rent ($/sq.ft.) 2011/12 Average Net Rent ($/sq.ft.) CRU (New) $22-$28 $24-$30 Big Box (New) $16-$22 $16-$24 Pads (New) $30-$45 $32-$50 Street Front $25-$100 $30-$120 Source: Cushman & Wakefield
19 High Street Rental Rates 2011 vs (Street Level) City Submarket 2011 Average Net Rent ($/sq.ft.) 2012 Average Net Rent ($/sq.ft.) Vancouver Robson Street $240 $220 Calgary 17 th Avenue SW $45 $50 Edmonton Whyte Avenue $40 $45 Montreal Saint-Catherine West (street level) $160 $180 Ottawa Sussex Drive $50 $50 Toronto Bloor Street $315 $320 Toronto Queen Street $100 $100 Ottawa Sussex Drive $50 $50 Montreal Saint-Catherine West (street level) $160 $180 Source: Cushman & Wakefield
20 Canadian Retail Vacancy Rate 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: Global Real Estate Trends. Scotiabank Group, Global Economic Research (2011) 19
21 Retail Vacancy Rates Street Front % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Vancouver Edmonton Calgary Toronto Ottawa Source: Cushman & Wakefield
22 Retail Vacancy Rates by Shopping Centre Type % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Power Centre Super Regional Regional Community Neighbourhood Strip Average Source: Cushman & Wakefield
23 This report contains information available to the public and has been relied upon by Cushman & Wakefield on the basis that it is accurate and complete. Cushman & Wakefield accepts no responsibility if this should prove not to be the case. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. Cushman & Wakefield Ltd
The Canadian Retail Real Estate Market Overview
The Canadian Retail Real Estate Market Overview Presented for: Toronto Real Estate Forum 2013 Presented by: John G. Crombie, National Retail Director Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. john.crombie@ca.cushwake.com
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