State of the Economy St. John's Metro

Transcription

1 State of the Economy St. John's Metro May 2017

2 Published by: Economic Development, Culture & Partnerships Department of Community Services City of St. John's Economic Updates (monthly), Economic Reviews and Outlooks (biannual) are also available in the publications section of the website or can be subscribed to by visiting the e-updates section. Although every effort has been made to ensure the completeness and accuracy of the information contained in this publication, the City of St. John s does not guarantee, warrant or make any representations, express or otherwise, that the information contained herein is complete and correct. All numbers are nominal unless otherwise stated. Publication date: May

3 St. John's CMA¹ economic indicators e % Change e Real GDP (2007$M) 12,502 12, % Retail Trade ($M) 3,914 3, % Household Income ($M) 10,828 10, % Consumer Price Index (2002=100) % 1 St. John s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) is a geographic area defined by Statistics Canada that includes St. John s and several neighbouring communities. St. John s CMA may also be referred to as St. John s metro throughout this document. Please refer to the following website for a map of St. John s CMA Table shows change from previous year data is estimated. Source: Statistics Canada; Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division. e: estimate, f: forecast 3

4 The St. John's metro unemployment rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 7.8% in e % Change e Labour Force 123, , % Employment 115, , % Unemployment Rate 6.5% 7.8% 1.3 ppts Participation Rate 69.3% 69.6% 0.3 ppts Table shows change from previous year data is estimated. Source: Statistics Canada; Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division. e: estimate, f: forecast. 4

5 Business approvals in the City of St. John s, including Home Based Businesses Home Based Businesses General Total Source: City of St. John s 5

6 Economic growth and oil production Real GDP growth in the St. John s CMA is sensitive to changes in oil production. The majority of oil industry activity is resident in the area, therefore most of the province s oil-related Real GDP is allocated to the CMA. Real GDP Growth With and Without Oil & Gas St. John's CMA (%) With Oil & Gas Excluding Oil & Gas Source: Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division. 6

7 Oil production impacts local and provincial economies. The Hebron project is scheduled to begin oil production in Exploration continues with recent discoveries, including Bay du Nord. Source: Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB), January

8 Major projects in the province are making significant investments and contributing to the local economy. Project Value Hebron Offshore Oil Development ( ) Lower Churchill Phase 1, Muskrat Falls Hydroelectric Generation Facility Vale Long Harbour Nickel Processing Facility ( ) Vale Voisey's Bay Underground Mine Development $14 B $9.396 B $4.25 B ($US) NA Note : This is not a complete list of Major Projects. Source: Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division 8

9 Millions of dollars in ongoing developments in the City of St. John s Project $10 M St. John's International Airport Capital Plan $245 Galway and Glencrest Development , Phase One $102 Alt Hotel, 123 Water Street $35 Star of the Sea Condos, 40 Henry Street St. John s Harbour Upgrade Project, Irving Oil $22 $20 Best Western Plus St. John s Airport Hotel $17 Sandman Hotel, 227 Kenmount Rd. $10.6 Micro Boutique Living, 12 Water Street $10 MIX residences, 345 Duckworth Street $15.4 Note: Table is not a complete list of all projects. Source: City of St. John s, Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division, Project Proponent 9

10 City of St. John s Initiatives Project $1 M Paul Reynolds Community Centre, Wedgewood Park $38.5 Water Transmission Main Replacement Program ( ) $34 Bay Bulls Big Pond Water Treatment Facility Upgrade $12 Kenmount Terrace Park $10 City of St. John s Street Rehabilitation Program 2016 $9.8 Metrobus Capital Works $6.1 St. Patrick s Housing Project $4.6 Community Market, 245 Freshwater Rd. $3.7 Note: Table is not a complete list of all projects. Source: City of St. John s 10

11 Other Public Investments in St. John s Project $15 M Memorial University Core Science Facility ( ) $325 Team Gushue Highway Extension ( ) $61.3 Atlantic Region Coast Guard Headquarters ( ) $40.0 Memorial University Battery Facility ( ) $25.6 Colonial Building Restoration ( ) $22.2 Note: Table is not a complete list of all projects. Source: City of St. John s, Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division 11

12 Harvey s Power Centre, east side of Torbay Road Field Power Centre, west side of Torbay Road Glencrest Industrial Centre, Phase One Galway residential and retail For location and further information: Map: City of St. John s 12

13 St. John s CMA housing starts decreased by 15% to 833 units in In the City of St. John s, housing starts declined to 294 units. Housing Starts - City of St. John's and St. John's CMA CMA St. John's , Note: CMA housing starts include St. John's housing starts. Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) 13

14 Thousands $ The average MLS ¹ housing price almost doubled from 2007 to 2014, decreasing to $305,763 in 2016². Average MLS Housing Price in St. John's CMA MLS (Multiple Listing Service) is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). ² CREA has made changes to the way the historical series is aggregated so prices are different from previous editions of the State of the Economy. Source: CMHC, adapted from MLS data. 14

15 Rent per sq foot Total Vacancy Rate Industrial market rental rates increased 5% to $14.35 per square foot and the vacancy rate increased to 16% in January First Quarter Gross Rental Rate and Vacancy Rate, Industrial St. John's CMA $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $ % $9.01 $ % $ % $10.53 $ % $ % 5.9% $ % $ % $ % $ % 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% $ % 2.0% $ % Source: Cushman & Wakefield Atlantic 15

16 psf/yr Office market rental rates increased slightly to $35.09 per square foot in the first quarter of 2016 and have increased 84% over the last ten years. First Quarter Gross Rental Rate St. John's $40 $30 $24.57 $27.50 $29.11 $31.05 $33.10 $34.63 $35.09 $20 $19.05 $18.58 $20.70 $10 $ Source: Cushman & Wakefield Atlantic 16

17 Office vacancy rates rose in 2016, reaching 13.4%, an increase of 44% from Q An additional 358,028 sq. ft. of office space has been completed and occupied over the last couple of years st Quarter Office Market Overall Vacancy St. John's CMA (%) Class A Overall* * Class A buildings in St. John's are: Baine Johnson Building, Fort William Building, Cabot Place, lll Fifty One Water Street, Fortis Place and Scotia Centre. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Atlantic, Altus Group 17

18 $Millions The value of commercial building permits in St. John s was $131 million in 2016 while residential and repair permits were $98.2 million. Value of Construction from Commercial and Residential Building Permits City of St. John's, , $Millions 300 Com Res Com = Commercial Permits; Res = Residential and Repair Permits Source: City of St. John's 18

19 Investment in non-residential* building construction in the St. John s CMA reached $59 million in the third quarter of 2016, down -52.6% from the fourth quarter of Investment in non-residential building construction, selected CMA s seasonally adjusted 3rd Qrt 3rd Qrt 3 rd Qrt 2015 to rd Qrt 2016 $ millions $ millions % change London Moncton Saskatoon Victoria Toronto Vancouver Calgary 1,133 1, Quebec Kingston St. John's Canada 12,825 12, Source: Statistics Canada. * The investment in non-residential building construction represents the spending value for enterprises and governments, for industrial, commercial and institutional buildings. It excludes engineering work (bridges, roads, electrical dams, etc.). 19

20 St. John s CMA labour force participation rate increased slightly (0.3 ppts) to 69.6% in 2016 but remained higher than the national rate (65.7%). Labour Force Participation Rates (%) St. John's CMA vs Canada % St. John's CMA Canada Source: Statistics Canada; Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division. 20

21 The annual unemployment rate in the St. John's CMA was 7.8% in The rate in Canada was 7.0%. 16 Annual Unemployment Rate (%) St. John's CMA Source: Statistics Canada; Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division. 21

22 City of St. John s 2011 Census 2016 Census Population % Change Population 106, , % St. John's Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) Occupied Private Dwellings 47, % St. John s CMA 2011 Census 2016 Census % Change Population 196, , % Occupied Private Dwellings 85, % Source: Department of Finance, Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census of Population. 22

23 St. John s CMA - A Demographic Snapshot: A glimpse into the future The percentage of the population of Newfoundland and Labrador living in St. John s CMA continues to grow Source: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division, Population Projections, medium scenario,

24 St. John s CMA - A Demographic Snapshot: A glimpse into the future It is forecasted that the number of households will increase at a greater rate than the population. Source: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division, Population Projections, medium scenario,

25 St. John s CMA - A Demographic Snapshot: A glimpse into the future An Aging Population: The portion of the population aged 65 and over grows while the age group declines. Source: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division, Population Projections, medium scenario,

26 St. John s CMA - A Demographic Snapshot: A glimpse into the future Population growth forecasted in the City of St. John s and St. John s CMA Source: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division, Population Projections, medium scenario,

27 Average weekly earnings declined in 2016 decreasing 4.5%, but are 45% higher than they were 10 years ago. The consumer price index increased 18% between Jan 2006 and Jan Average January Weekly Earnings St. John's CMA $1,100 $1,000 $949 $998 $900 $800 $781 $805 $860 $913 $1,003 $953 $700 $640 $748 $600 $658 $ Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM) 27

28 The median family income in the St. John s CMA rose by 1.3% to $94,060 compared to an increase of 1.1% in Canada. Median total income of all census families % Change to 2014 $ $ Kelowna 78,370 80, Saint John 75,040 76, Windsor 74,880 76, Vancouver 74,820 76, St. John's 92,880 94, Calgary 103, , Regina 93,670 96, Quebec 85,800 86, Sherbrooke 72,090 72, Canada 78,050 78, Source: Statistics Canada Census families include couple families, with or without children, and lone-parent families. 28

29 Billions $ Slower growth in household income resulted in retail sales of $3.9 billion in 2016, on par with Retail Sales ($B) - St. John's CMA $3.88 $ $3.44 $3.74 $3.91 $ $3.03 $3.12 $ $ Source: Statistics Canada; Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division.

30 84% of businesses in St. John s CMA have less than 20 employees. # of businesses by Employment Size Range St. John's CMA 2016 (n=6,943) 12.7% 2.5% 0.7% 50.3% 33.8% 1 to 4 5 to to to Source: Statistics Canada, Business Register 30

31 Approximately 32% of the 17,422 students enrolled at Memorial University in 2016 were from out of province. International student enrolment increased 6.7% over Number of International and Other Canadian Students Enrolled at MUN, Fall Semesters Other Canadian International Source: Center for Institutional Analysis and Planning, Memorial University. 31

32 St. John's average hotel occupancy rate was 60.36% in 2016, down from 62.95% in Room nights available increased to 939,909 from 892,368 in The average rate was $ per night in 2016, in 2015 it was $ Note: These numbers reflect all room nights including major hotels, boutique hotels, and B & Bs. An increase in room nights available in 2016 has affected the comparison of occupancy rates slightly. Source: Destination St. John s 32

33 St. John s Convention and Cruise Data The new St. John's Convention Centre opened in May 2016! *Meetings and conventions of greater than 50 people Source: Destination St. John s, City of St. John s Note: The St. John s Convention Centre was closed from fall of 2014 to spring 2016 for construction Convention Delegates* 24,490 21,215 24,098 Number of ship visits Number of Passengers ,775 16,756 15,439 33

34 Thousands Passenger traffic increased 4.3% in 2016 to 1.6 million. Airline Passenger Movements at St. John's International Airport (000's) Source: St. John's International Airport Authority and Transport Canada 34

35 Thousands Port Data The number of vessel arrivals increased to 1,436 in 2016 while total port cargo decreased St. John's Total Port Cargo (metric tonnes) (000's) St. John's Port Vessel Arrivals Note: vessel arrivals exclude non-commercial, e.g., Department of National Defence and small commercial vessels entering the Port of St. John s. Source: St. John's Port Authority

36 How does St. John s rank? Studies offer comparisons with other cities nationally and internationally City Magnets III: Benchmarking the Attractiveness of 50 Canadian Cities The City of St. John s received an A grade in this study from the Conference Board of Canada. St. John s is ranked as the sixth most attractive city in Canada for newcomers. St. John s ranked second out of 50 cities in the category of full-time employment (2011 data). St. John s is one of only 2 cities to receive an A in Health. KPMG Competitive Alternatives 2016 Out of 111 cities internationally, St. John s ranked 12 th. St. John s ranked 10 th among the 17 featured Canadian Cities. Within the New England/Atlantic region, St. John s ranked 5 th out of 11 cities. St. John s now has the lowest effective corporate income tax rate among cities in this study. Note: City Magnets III is a study conducted by the Conference Board of Canada that grades and ranks 50 Canadian cities according to features that make them attractive to mobile populations. Released in September KPMG s 2016 Competitive Alternatives report explores the most significant business cost factors in more than 100 cities and 10 countries around the world to provide an independent comparison of international business locations. Released March

37 Outlook for 2017 The economic outlook for St. John s CMA is expected to remain subdued in There will be a significant decline in capital investment as the Hebron and Long Harbour projects move past peak construction, although capital investment will remain high in a historical context. Government deficit reduction measures are expedited to curtail expenditures in the public sector. Source: Statistics Canada; Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division. 37