Edmonton Real Estate Forum

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1 Edmonton Real Estate Forum On Solid Footing Shaw Conference Centre May 10, 2012 Mario Lefebvre Director, Centre for Municipal Studies

2 Uneven Growth in Global Economy (per cent change, real GDP) Japan E.U. North America Latin America Asia Pacific Asia Pacific (excl Japan) Source: Consensus Economics.

3 U.S. Labour Market (Change in U.S. Employment, 000s) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

4 U.S. Real GDP (per cent change) '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 13 Sources: BEA; CBoC.

5 ,000-1,250-1,500 U.S. Federal Deficit (NIPA basis, $billions) Sources: CBO; CBoC.

6 Raw Materials Price Index (per cent change) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada

7 The Loonie and the Oil Price WTI $US, $US/$C Dollar (left) Oil Price (right) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; U.S. EIA; Statistics Canada.

8 60,000 50,000 U.S. and Canada s GDP per capita (in current CAD$) U.S. Canada 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Sources: CBoC, Statistics Canada; BEA..

9 Interest Rates (90-Day T-Bill) Quarterly Canada U.S Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; BEA; Statistics Canada.

10 Federal and Provincial Gov t Balances (as a Share of GDP ) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; various government budgets.

11 Federal and Provincial Gov t Debt (as a Share of GDP ) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; various government budgets.

12 Real GDP Growth Rate Canada Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

13 Edmonton Outlook: Highlights Notwithstanding a decline in the first quarter of this year, employment has rebounded sharply. Continued strong oil prices support activities in the oil sands and, in turn, in Edmonton s manufacturing sector, which is forecast to grow vigorously. Following a large contraction, the housing market has recovered and appears on sound footing. Continued healthy population growth will support consumer spending.

14 Energy Prices (US$) January 1995 to March Natural Gas Oil Source: Statistics Canada.

15 Labour Market Edmonton ( ) Employment (000s) Unemployment Rate Source: Statistics Canada.

16 Employment Growth Edmonton ( ) f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

17 Unemployment Rate Edmonton ( ) f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

18 Disposable Income Growth Edmonton ( ) f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

19 Retail Sales Growth Edmonton ( ) f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

20 Population Growth Edmonton ( ) f 14f 16f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

21 Housing Starts Edmonton ( ) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4, f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC.

22 Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Edmonton ( ) Seller s Market Balanced Market Buyer s Market Source: Canadian Real Estate Association.

23 Existing Home Price, New Housing Price Index Edmonton ( ) 400, , , , , , ,000 Existing New Sources: Canadian Real Estate Association; Statistics Canada..

24 Non-Residential Building Permits Edmonton (millions $) Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

25 Goods Output Growth Edmonton ( ) f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

26 Manufacturing Output Growth Edmonton ( ) f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

27 Construction Output Growth Edmonton ( ) f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

28 Services Output Growth Edmonton ( ) f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

29 Wholesale and Retail Trade Output Growth Edmonton ( ) f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

30 Real GDP Growth Edmonton ( ) f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

31 Edmonton vs. East (Real GDP Growth, ) Edmonton Québec Halifax Ott-Gat Toronto Montréal Hamilton Source : The Conference Board of Canada.

32 Edmonton vs. West (Real GDP Growth, ) Edmonton Saskatoon Calgary Vancouver Victoria Regina Winnipeg Source : The Conference Board of Canada.

33 Edmonton vs. East (Real GDP Growth, 2011) Edmonton Halifax Toronto Québec Hamilton Montreal Ott-Gat Source : The Conference Board of Canada.

34 Edmonton vs. West (Real GDP Growth, 2011) Regina Saskatoon Edmonton Vancouver Calgary Winnipeg Victoria Source : The Conference Board of Canada.

35 Edmonton vs. East (Real GDP Growth, 2012) Edmonton Toronto Halifax Québec Hamilton Montreal Ott-Gat Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

36 Edmonton vs. West (Real GDP Growth, 2012) Saskatoon Calgary Edmonton Regina Vancouver Winnipeg Victoria Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

37 Edmonton vs. East (Real GDP Growth, ) Edmonton Toronto Hamilton Halifax Montreal Quebec Ott-Gat Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

38 Edmonton vs. West (Real GDP Growth, ) Calgary Edmonton Saskatoon Vancouver Regina Winnipeg Victoria Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

39 The Conference Board of Canada

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