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1 213 Economic Outlook December 1, 212 Dr. Stephen P. A. Brown, Director Prepared by The Lee Lee Business School University of Nevada, Las Vegas University of Nevada, Las Vegas May 3, 212 December 1, Overview Southern Nevada Economy Slowly Strengthening Tourism and Gaming Housing and Real Estate Gaining traction Southern Nevada in Slow Recovery Southern Nevada Economic Outlook Slow growth 2 University of Nevada, Las Vegas 1

2 213 Economic Outlook December 1, 212 Southern Nevada Economy Slowly Strengthening 3 Southern Nevada Leading and Coincident Indexes Leading Index Index: January 1981 = Coincident Index Index: January 1981 = Southern Nevada Recessions University of Nevada, Las Vegas 2

3 213 Economic Outlook December 1, Clark County Business Activity Index 45 4 Index: January 1981 = Southern Nevada Recessions Clark County Tourism Index Index: January 1981 = Southern Nevada Recessions University of Nevada, Las Vegas 3

4 213 Economic Outlook December 1, Clark County Construction Index 9 8 Index: January 1981 = Southern Nevada Recessions People, Employment and Income 8 University of Nevada, Las Vegas 4

5 213 Economic Outlook December 1, 212 3, Nevada and Clark County Populations 2,5 Nevada Clark County 2, Thousands of People 1,5 1, , Clark County Redeemed Driver's Licenses 8, th umber of Licenses Turned in Each Mont Nu 6, 4, Clark County Redeemed Driver's Licenses 12 Month Moving Average 2, University of Nevada, Las Vegas 5

6 213 Economic Outlook December 1, 212 3,5, Clark County Population Forecast 3,, Number of Persons 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,,, 5, Nevada and Las Vegas Employment 1,4 1,2 1, Nevada Las Vegas Thousands of Jobs Note: Data are seasonally adjusted University of Nevada, Las Vegas 6

7 213 Economic Outlook December 1, Las Vegas Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 14 Percent Unemployed Seasonally Adjusted , Nevada and Clark County Taxable Sales 4,5 4, 3,5 Millions of Dollars 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Nevada Taxable Sales 12 Month Moving Average Clark County Taxable Sales 12 Month Moving Average University of Nevada, Las Vegas 7

8 213 Economic Outlook December 1, 212 9, Automobile and Part Sales 9 8, 8 United States 7, 7 6, 6 Millions of Dollars 5, 4, Nevada 5 4 Millions of Dollars 3, 3 2, Clark County 2 1, Washoe County , Per Capita Personal Income 4, 35, 3, Dollars 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, United States Nevada Las Vegas 16 University of Nevada, Las Vegas 8

9 213 Economic Outlook December 1, 212 What Drives the Southern Nevada Economy? 17 Nevada and Las Vegas Location Quotients Industry Nevada Las Vegas Natural Resources and Mining.89.3 Mining, Except Oil and Gas Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation and Utilities Air Transportation Transit and Ground Transportation Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation Support Activities for Transportation Information Financial Activities Real Estate, Rental and Leasing Professional and Business Services.9.9 Education and Health Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Leisure and Hospitality Other Services University of Nevada, Las Vegas 9

10 213 Economic Outlook December 1, Mgmt. of Companies and Enterprises in Las Vegas Thousands of Employees Nevada and Las Vegas Location Quotients Industry Nevada Las Vegas Natural Resources and Mining.89.3 Mining Except Oil & Gas Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation and Utilities Air Transportation Transit and Ground Transportation Information Financial Activities Real Estate, Rental and Leasing Professional and Business Services.9.9 Tourism and Gaming Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services University of Nevada, Las Vegas 1

11 213 Economic Outlook December 1, 212 1, U.S. GDP and Clark County Gaming Revenue 18, U.S. GDP 8 15, Clark County Gaming Revenue (12 Month Moving Average) 12, Millions of Dollars 6 4 9, Billions of Dollars 6, 2 U.S. Recessions 3, , U.S. Employment and Las Vegas Leisure and Hospitality Employment 3 14, Total U.S. Employment 25 12, Las Vegas Leisure and Hospitality Employment 1, 2 Thousands of Jobs 8, 6, 15 Thousands of Jobs 1 4, 2, 5 Note: Data are seasonally adjusted U.S. Recessions University of Nevada, Las Vegas 11

12 213 Economic Outlook December 1, 212 4,8, Nevada Visitor Volume 4,6, 4,4, Number of Visitors 4,2, 4,, 3,8, 3,6, 3,4, Nevada Visitor Volume 12 Month Moving Average 3,2, ,1, Clark County Visitor Volume 3,9, 3,7, Number of Visitors 3,5, 3,3, 3,1, Clark County Visitor Volume 12 Month Moving Average 2,9, 2,7, 2,5, University of Nevada, Las Vegas 12

13 213 Economic Outlook December 1, 212 4,, Las Vegas Visitor Volume 3,5, 3,, Number of Visitors 2,5, 2,, 1,5, Las Vegas Visitor Volume 12 Month Moving Average 1,, 5, ,6, Las Vegas Visitor Volume and Taxi Trips 2,4, 3,4, Taxi Trips 2,3, 2,2, Number of Visitors 3,2, 3,, 2,8, Visitor Volume 2,1, 2,, 1,9, Number of Taxi Trips 1,8, 2,6, Note: Data shown are 12 month moving averages 1,7, 2,4, ,6, 26 University of Nevada, Las Vegas 13

14 213 Economic Outlook December 1, 212 3,6, 3,4, Las Vegas Visitor Volume and Room Nights Occupied 4,, Room Nights Occupied 3,8, Number of Visitors 3,2, 3,, 2,8, 2,6, 2,4, Visitor Volume 3,6, 3,4, 3,2, 3,, 2,8, 2,6, Number of Room Nights Occupied 2,2, 2,4, 2,, Note: Data shown are 12 month moving averages 2,2, 1,8, ,, 27 4,2 Clark County Visitor Volume and Gaming Revenue 1, 3,6 Visitor Volume 8 3, GrossGaming Revenue Thousands of Visitors 2,4 1,8 6 4 Millions of Dollars 1,2 6 2 Note: Data shown are 12 month moving averages University of Nevada, Las Vegas 14

15 213 Economic Outlook December 1, 212 3,6, Las Vegas Visitor Volume and Employment in Leisure and Hospitality 3 3,, Visitor Volume Leisure and Hospitality Employment 25 2,4, 2 Number of Visitors 1,8, 1,2, 15 1 Thousands of Employees 6, 5 Note: Visitor data are 12 month moving averages; employment data are seasonally adjusted Southern Nevada Housing and Real Estate 3 University of Nevada, Las Vegas 15

16 213 Economic Outlook December 1, Case Shiller Home Price Indexes 2 Index: 2 = Las Vegas United States (1 City Composite) United States (2 CityComposite) Composite) Note: Data are seasonally adjusted Median Home Prices 35 3 Thousands of Dollars Q1 Q2 Q3 United States Western Region Las Vegas Metro Area 32 University of Nevada, Las Vegas 16

17 213 Economic Outlook December 1, 212 4, Clark County Median Home Prices 35, 3, 25, Dollars 2, 15, New Existing 1, 5, Las Vegas Months of Supply and House Prices 25 Months of Supply Potential Months of Total Supply? Months of Vacant Supply? Months of Listed Supply 6.2 House Prices ) ouse Prices (Index: January 2 = 1 Ho Months of Listed Vacant Supply University of Nevada, Las Vegas 17

18 213 Economic Outlook December 1, Nevada Homeowners with Negative Equity Percent Q4 21 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 211 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 212 Q1 212 Q2 Negative Equity Near Negative Equity 35 7 Negative Equity Mortgages: Top Six States (Second Quarter 212) 6 5 Percent Nevada Florida Arizona Georgia Michigan California U.S. Average Negative Equity Near Negative Equity 36 University of Nevada, Las Vegas 18

19 213 Economic Outlook December 1, Housing Opportunity Index ncome t of Housing Sold That Is Affordable at Median I Percent Las Vegas Paradise, NV Los Angeles Long Beach Glendale, CA Phoenix Mesa Scottsdale, AZ United States Southern Nevada Economy in a Slow Recovery 38 University of Nevada, Las Vegas 19

20 213 Economic Outlook December 1, Leading Indexes of Economic Activity 11 1 Index 24 = Southern Nevada Nevada United States CBER Southern Nevada Business Confidence Index 12 Percent Up Percent Down University of Nevada, Las Vegas 2

21 213 Economic Outlook December 1, 212 8% U.S. and Southern Nevada Credit Conditions 76% 7% 65% 64% 67% 6% 5% 4% 3% 25% 28% 26% 2% 16% 1% 1% 8% 8% 7% % U.S. 21 U.S. 212Q4 Southern Nevada 21 Southern Nevada 212Q4 Not seeking additional credit Credit needs were satisfied Credit needs were not satisfied 41 4 Western States Employment Growth 3 2 Percent Change U.S. Arizona California Colorado New Mexico Oregon Utah Washington Nevada University of Nevada, Las Vegas 21

22 213 Economic Outlook December 1, 212 Southern Nevada Forecast Visitor Volume 3.6% 1.3% 2.% 2.5% Gross Gaming Revenue 3.5% 2.4% 2.8% 3.5% Hotel/Motel Rooms 8%.8%.1%.2%.3% Housing Units Permitted 8.2% 22.5% 2.% 45.% Employment.6%.9% 1.3% 1.7% Unemployment 1.9% 2.1% 1.4%.9% Total Personal Income 4.3% 2.2% 3.2% 3.5% Population.1% 1.% 1.1% 1.5% 2.% 1.%.% 1.% 2.% 3.% 4.% 5.% Clark County Visitor Volume and Gaming Revenue 4,2 $1, Visitor Volume Forecast 3,6 $8 Forecast 3, GrossGaming Revenue Thousands of Visitors 2,4 1,8 $6 $4 Millions of Dollars 1,2 6 $2 Note: Data shown are 12 month moving averages $ 44 University of Nevada, Las Vegas 22

23 213 Economic Outlook December 1, 212 4, Clark County Housing Permits 3,5 3, Number of Units Permitted 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Forecast 5 Note: Data shown are 12 month moving averages ,4 Nevada and Las Vegas Employment Nevada 1,2 Forecast 1, Thousands of Jobs 8 6 Las Vegas Forecast 4 2 Note: Data are seasonally adjusted University of Nevada, Las Vegas 23

24 213 Economic Outlook December 1, 212 Economic Outlook: Conclusions Improving Southern Nevada economy Dependent on U.S. growth, particularly in the West Headwinds: Weak U.S. economy financial sector; European recession; Slowing Asian economies; Real estate overhang; Lack of economic diversity Fair Winds: Housing market improving; Increased consumer confidence and spending; U.S. economy to improve 47 Thank You 48 University of Nevada, Las Vegas 24

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