The Outlook for the Residential Construction Industry Hunter and the Central Coast
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1 The Outlook for the Residential Construction Industry Hunter and the Central Coast Graham Wolfe HIA Chief Executive Industry Policy and Media HIA Industry Outlook Breakfast Newcastle February 2013
2 Backdrop: Summary of the Global Economy?
3 The most comprehensive housing report card produced in Australia Summer 2012/13 edition:- Around the global economy there is cause for optimism, but the risks remain. Growth in more recent quarters has been slowing. The household sector remains cautious with debt reduction seemingly preferable to consuming. Nevertheless, it is encouraging to see attitudes towards housing have improved over recent months. For more information on the HIA Economics Group, please contact us at: (02) or
4 HIA NSW Outlook, Summer 2012/13 edition into early 2013 global economic circumstances remain tenuous... Consequently the Australian dollar is likely to remain high in the foreseeable future and this will continue to act as a break on a return to higher levels of growth in the Australian economy. The implications for interest rates:- We think that [further reductions] is a fair bet, but there is considerable uncertainty as to how much further interest rates will fall.
5 Overall expectations on a recovery in 2013
6 Economic backdrop across Australia
7 Sep-91 Sep-92 Sep-93 Sep-94 Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 % change The Australian Economy where are we heading? Gross Domestic Product Source: ABS Qtrly Annual
8 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 % Interest Rate Interest rates have eased since late 2011 Interest Rates, Australia Source: HIA Economics, RBA Mortgate Rate Margin to Cash Rate (RHS) Discounted Variable Mortgage Rate RBA Cash Rate Small Business Variable Term Loan Late 2011, the RBA started to cut rates there has been 175bps of cuts to the official cash rate in the current easing cycle. Businesses and households still face tight credit conditions
9 Index Consumer confidence is (finally) picking up Consumer Confidence Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Feb-95 Feb-97 Feb-99 Feb-01 Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13
10 Unemployment is a big key to the outlook Unemployment Rate by State - January 2013 Source: ABS Labour Force National Unemployment Rate NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT
11 The Hunter Economy
12 Economic and housing update: a mixed bag HUNTER ECONOMY INDICATOR Interest rate settings Mining sector Unemployment rate Detached houses Mutli-units Major alterations and additions UPDATE Improved Mixed Improved Mixed Improved Mixed
13 Key to the Hunter s economic backdrop
14 But where are thermal coal prices heading?
15 Implications for the labour market Change in Hunter employment levels - Yr to Nov 2012 vs Yr to Nov 2011 Source: ABS Labour Force Health Care and Social Assistance 20.3 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Other Services Public Administration and Safety Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 7.0 Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Arts and Recreation Services Retail Trade Mining Wholesale Trade Information Media and Telecommunications Education and Training Transport, Postal and Warehousing Construction Administrative and Support Services Financial and Insurance Services Accommodation and Food Services Manufacturing Professional, Scientific and Technical Services change in employed persons ('000) Though there are bigger employers than the local mining industry.
16 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Per cent Overall Hunter region unemployment Unemployment rate - Hunter region Source" ABS Labour Force Newcastle Hunter 5 yr avge 20 yr avge
17 Which is key to consumer confidence
18 Business sentiment in the Hunter
19 Residential construction in the Hunter
20 Good starting point: Hunter home buying sentiment has picked up Source: Hunter Valley Research Foundation
21 Sep-2004 Dec-2004 Mar-2005 Jun-2005 Sep-2005 Dec-2005 Mar-2006 Jun-2006 Sep-2006 Dec-2006 Mar-2007 Jun-2007 Sep-2007 Dec-2007 Mar-2008 Jun-2008 Sep-2008 Dec-2008 Mar-2009 Jun-2009 Sep-2009 Dec-2009 Mar-2010 Jun-2010 Sep-2010 Dec-2010 Mar-2011 Jun-2011 Sep-2011 Dec-2011 Mar-2012 Jun-2012 Sep-2012 $ Source: rpdata.com, HIA Economics Hunter region land sales holding up decent levels RESIDENTIAL LAND SALES & MEDIAN LOT VALUE - HUNTER No. of sales Value (LHS) and are still outperforming other NSW regions
22 No. of approvals Hunter Detached House Approvals Detached House Approvals - Hunter Valley ex Newcastle Source: ABS Building Approvals months to Dec 12 v 3 months to Dec11-6% change Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
23 No. of approvals Hunter Multi-Unit Approvals Multi-Unit Approvals - Hunter Valley ex Newcastle Source: ABS Building Approvals 3 months to Dec 12 v 3 months to Dec % change Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
24 No. of approvals Newcastle Detached House Approvals Detached House Approvals - Newcastle and Lake Macquarie Source: ABS Building Approvals 3 months to Dec 12 v 3 months to Dec 11-10% change Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
25 No. of approvals Newcastle Multi-Unit Approvals Multi-Unit Approvals - Newcastle and Lake Macquarie Source: ABS Building Approvals 3 months to Dec12 v 3 months to Dec % change Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
26 No. of approvals Detached House Approvals Central Coast Detached House Approvals - Central Coast Source: ABS Building Approvals 70 3 months to Dec 12 v 3 months to Dec 11 +7% change Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
27 No. of approvals Central Coast Multi-Unit Approvals Multi-Unit Approvals - Central Coast Source: ABS Building Approvals months to Dec 12 v 3 months to Dec % change Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
28 No. of approvals Total detached house approvals Detached House Approvals - Hunter Valley, Newcastle and Central Coast Source: ABS building approvals months to Dec 2012 vs 3 months to Dec % change Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
29 No. of approvals Total multi-unit approvals Multi-unit Approvals - Hunter Valley, Newcastle and Central Coast Source: ABS building approvals months to Dec 2012 vs 3 months to Dec % change Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
30 No. of approvals Total Approvals Total Residential Building Approvals - Hunter Valley, Newcastle and Central Coast Source: ABS building approvals 3 months to Dec 2012 vs 3 months to Dec % change Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
31 Dec-90 Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Number compared with NSW approvals Building Approvals - NSW Source: ABS Building Approvals 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Seasonally adjusted Trend
32 Hunter Alterations and Additions Value of Approved Major Alterations & Additions ($'000) - Hunter Valley ex Newcastle Source: ABS Building Approvals 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, months to Dec 12 v 3 months to Dec 11-3% change 0 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
33 Newcastle Alterations and Additions Value of Approved Major Alterations & Additions ($'000) - Newcastle and Lake Macquarie Source: ABS Building Approvals 12,000 3 months to Dec 12 v 3 months to Dec 11 +4% change 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
34 Central Coast Alterations and Additions Value of Approved Major Alterations & Additions ($'000) - Central Coast Source: ABS Building Approvals 8,000 3 months to Dec 12 v 3 months to Dec 11 +3% change 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
35 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 While NSW major alts and adds track sideways The NSW Renovations and Additions Market Monthly Lending and Monthly Council Approvals ($000) 250, , , ,000 50,000 0 Lending for Alts and Adds Value of Council Approved Alts and Adds
36 A glance at regional house prices: picking up House Prices: 12 months to November 2012 Median Price 12 month Growth (%) 10 year Growth (%) Cessnock $255, Gosford $263, Muswellbrook $313, Singleton $395, Source: Australian Property Investor
37 So what does the future hold?
38 Thousand dwellings commenced Short term starts outlook NSW Housing Starts Forecasts Source: HIA Economics Group Forecast /04 (a) 2004/05 (a) 2005/06 (a) 2006/07 (a) 2007/08 (a) 2008/09 (a) 2009/10 (a) 2010/11 (a) 2011/12 (a) 2012/ /14
39 The outlook for renovations Financial Year DWELLING STARTS: by state and territory thousand dwellings commenced Starts NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT Aust 2003/04 (a) /05 (a) /06 (a) /07 (a) /08 (a) /09 (a) /10 (a) /11 (a) /12 (a) / / Source HIA Economics % change: 2004/05 (a) -14% -10% -11% 5% 2% -1% 28% -15% -8% 2005/06 (a) -16% -4% -4% -3% 13% -9% 2% -24% -5% 2006/07 (a) -10% -2% 9% 5% -5% 12% 5% 24% 0% 2007/08 (a) 6% 8% 9% 6% -9% 1% -26% -3% 4% 2008/09 (a) -25% 0% -36% 1% -18% 0% 7% 18% -17% 2009/10 (a) 36% 31% 20% 0% 36% 7% 11% 66% 27% 2010/11 (a) -3% 8% -23% -12% -17% -4% 4% 16% -6% 2011/12 (a) -6% -16% 0% -18% -15% -26% -3% -13% -11% 2012/13 16% -16% 7% 1% 25% 1% 13% -26% 1% 2013/14 5% -3% 14% 3% 5% 3% -4% -3% 4% Updated December 2012
40 THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME THIS MORNING Graham Wolfe HIA Chief Executive Industry Policy and Media February
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