2015 Lodging Econometrics, Inc.

Transcription

1

2 Lodging Econometrics (LE): What We Do LE is the leading provider of Global Hotel Real Estate Intelligence. LE has a team of researchers who maintain relationships with over: 200 Brands, all multiple Developers and 1,500 Ownership and Management Groups, globally. LE maintains the most comprehensive Live Online Database of Records for New Construction and Open and Operating Hotels (Census) which includes Announced Renovations, Conversions, and Individual Sales Transactions, globally. Perfect for: - Franchise Development Teams looking for Unbranded Development Pipeline projects and all Conversion opportunities with contacts. - O&M Groups looking for Development Pipeline projects that have yet to select a Management Company and all other Third-Party Management opportunities with contacts. - Vendors/Suppliers looking for New Development Pipeline projects, Announced Renovations and Brand Conversions complete with contacts.

3 US Lodging Real Estate Cycle Earnings Development Lending Transactions Cycle Peak Full Wall St. Participation Peak New Hotel Openings Peak Earnings Peak Transaction Activity Early Wall St. Activity Early Operating Recovery Full Operating Recovery Main Street Debt Availability Conversions/Renovations New Project Announcements Early Transaction Recovery Recovery Expansion Maturity X Rev. 10/1/15

4 US Construction Pipeline: by Projects and Rooms Rooms (000s) Under Construction Starts in Next 12 Mos Early Planning Forecast 750 Prior Peak 2Q 08: 785 K Rooms / 5883 Projects Q 15 Year End 15 Year End 16 Year End 17 Projs 2,753 2,757 3,020 3,645 4,038

5 US Construction Pipeline: by Project Stage Year-Over-Year 2Q Q 2014 % Variance Projs Rms Projs Rms Projs Rms Under Construction Starts Next 12 Month Early Planning 1, , ,380 18% 16% 1, ,506 1, ,204 27% 23% 1, , ,803 19% 21% Total Pipeline 4, ,221 3, ,387 22% 20%

6 US Construction Pipeline: by Chain Scale with Unbranded 2% Projs Rooms 7% Luxury 42 11,785 24% Upper Upscale ,909 Upscale 1, ,706 3% 2% 6% 26% Upper Midscale 1, ,164 Midscale ,414 Economy 114 9,462 30% Casino 36 13,766 Unbranded ,015 Total 4, ,221 % By Rooms

7 US Construction Pipeline by Chain Scale: with Unbranded Included Projs Rooms Luxury 98 21,722 Upper Upscale ,000 Upscale 1, ,573 Upper Midscale 1, ,077 Midscale ,735 Economy ,348 Casino 36 13,766 Total 4, ,221 % By Rooms

8 US Forecast for New Hotel Openings Forecast Actual Rooms ,968 *2.2% ,628 *1.9% ,808 *1.6% ,319 *1.2% ,090 *1.0% * Growth rate

9 Forecast for New Hotel Openings: by Chain Scale as of 2Q13 US Forecast for New Hotel Openings: by Chain Scale * = growth rate % (Includes Unbranded) Projs Rms * Projs Rms * Projs Rms * Luxury 16 3, , , Upper Upscale 34 6, , , Upscale , , , Upper Midscale , , , Midscale 78 5, , , Economy 38 2, , , Casino 7 1, ,

10 US Construction Pipeline: Top 10 Markets by Rooms * = Pipeline of rooms as a percentage of current Census Projs Rms * New York , Houston , Los Angeles 79 15, Washington DC 88 14, Dallas ,

11 US Construction Pipeline: Top 10 Markets by Rooms (cont d) * = Pipeline of rooms as a percentage of current Census Projs Rms * Miami 70 12, Chicago 56 10, Boston 59 10, Seattle 53 10, Austin 72 9,

12 Top 5 US Parent Companies: New Construction plus Conversions by Rooms Projs Rms Avg. Rms per Proj. Hilton , Marriott , IHG , Choice , Starwood ,

13 Global Construction Pipeline by Region Under Construction Planning Total Pipeline United States Other Americas Proj Rms Proj Rms Proj Rms 1, ,743 2, ,478 4, , , ,021 1, ,605 EMEA , ,811 1, ,691 Asia Pac 2, ,953 1, ,477 4, ,430 Global 5, ,160 5, ,787 10,897 1,857,947

14 Asia Pacific Construction Pipeline: Top 5 Countries by Rooms Projs Rms China 2, ,268 Indonesia ,195 India ,237 South Korea ,018 Japan ,850

15 Asia Pacific Construction Pipeline: Top 5 Markets by Rooms Projs Rms Seoul, South Korea ,285 Chengdu, China 92 23,514 Jakarta, Indonesia ,897 Shanghai, China ,148 Guangzhou, China ,606

16 Latin America Construction Pipeline: Top 5 Countries by Rooms Projs Rms Brazil ,978 Mexico ,160 Colombia 49 7,716 Argentina 35 3,893 Dominican Republic 10 2,941

17 Latin America Construction Pipeline: Top 5 Markets by Rooms Projs Rms Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 52 10,736 Sao Paulo, Brazil 37 7,599 Campinas, Brazil 36 6,734 Cancun, Mexico 5 3,381 Nassau, Bahamas 6 2,392

18 Europe Construction Pipeline: Top 5 Countries by Rooms Projs Rms United Kingdom ,993 Germany ,085 Russia 99 20,136 Turkey 77 13,267 Spain 55 8,242

19 Europe Construction Pipeline: Top 5 Markets by Rooms Projs Rms London, United Kingdom 60 11,186 Moscow, Russia 34 8,617 Istanbul, Turkey 35 5,930 Amsterdam, Netherlands 17 4,450 Berlin, Germany 15 4,255

20 US Transactions with a Reported Selling Price Average Selling Price Per Room (000s) K 224K 215K 159K 153K 146K 104K 74K 106K 77K 72K 74K 77K 48K YTD 15 >200 Rooms <200 Rooms Total Trans

21 US Lodging Real Estate: Total Investment by Dollars 1 $ Millions Privately Held Companies As Sellers YTD 2015 As Buyers YTD 2015 Equity Funds 5,790 7,402 6,657 6,791 7,728 2,824 Hotel Companies 5,479 4,755 2,987 2,789 3,569 1,165 Individual Owners 1,765 2, ,090 2,317 1,041 Publicly Traded Companies REITs 3,032 2, ,516 6,715 4,484 Hotel Companies 755 1, , Other Entities 593 2, ,074 Total Dollar Volume 17,415 22,332 11,815 17,415 22,332 11,815 1 For Transactions with a reported Selling Price

22 Forecast: Much of the Same The overall US Market will continue to remain robust in several areas including Transactions. The Construction Pipeline will continue to grow in a steady and measured way and will be dominated with projects less than 200 rooms in the Upscale and Upper Midscale Chain Scales. Supply concerns in some markets will continue to be debated as Pipelines grow. Profits will remain strong as we have a good 2-3 year run in front of us. However, if you are an owner it is a great time to sell and take your profits given the sales cycle and looming interest rate hikes.

23 Presented by: Bruce Ford Thank You!