Briefing Perth CBD Office August 2018

Transcription

1 Savills Research Western Australia Briefing Perth CBD Office Highlights The Perth CBD office market has swung through the bottom of the cycle into recovery, with recent employment growth aiding positive net absorption; Investment volumes are more than three times the value recorded at same time last year and the highest level recorded in the market since June 2013; This rise in investor appetite is reflective of confidence levels on the back of improvements in the leasing market, with declining vacancy and rising occupier demand; Foreign investors, in particular, have dominated recent transactional activity, with entrants seeking to redeploy capital into potentially higher-yielding assets under counter-cyclical strategy. A Grade Averages Latest 12mo Diff Outlook Rental N.F. ($/sq m) % Incentives (%) bps Rental N.E ($/sq m) % Yield Market (%) bps IRR (%) bps Capital Values ($/sq m) 8, % Demand & Supply Latest Yr Before Vacancy (%) Net Absorb. ( 000sq m) Stock U/C ( 000sq m) % of market 3.1% - % committed 100%

2 Report Contents Vacancy & Availability 3 Leasing Activity & Demand 4 Sales Activity 6 Supply 8 Development Map 9 Rents & Outlook 10 Key Indicators 12 Key Contacts 12 Associate Director Research Katy Dean kdean@savills.com.au Research Analyst Research Nicholas Volk nvolk@savills.com.au For our latest national reports, visit savills.com.au/research Executive Summary To join Savills Research mailing list, please research@savills.com.au Although mining investment, particularly in new iron ore projects, is less than half of what it was during the boom years of 2012/13, Western Australia remains the nation s leading mining investment destination and investment in new sectors is rising. BHP and its JV partners recently announced an investment of circa $4.7 billion to develop the South Flank Mine in the Pilbara. The project will be the single largest annual production iron ore mine that BHP has ever developed and is expected to generate 2,500 jobs during construction and about 600 operational roles once in operation. FMG has also committed approximately $1.7 billion on a new mine in Eliwana, with production of iron ore expected late The project is expected to create 1,900 construction jobs and 500 permanent positions, while Rio Tinto is anticipated to execute a final investment decision on a new mine, Koodaideri, by year-end. The strengthening performance and confidence in Western Australia from the CBD s largest tenants is a direct contributor to the dynamics of the office market. The State Government has projected business investment to return to growth from 2019, supported predominantly by large iron ore and LNG projects, however growth is expected to be modest relative to the previous upswing, suggesting a return to a more normal and sustainable investment level. Tenant demand, particularly for Prime stock, has strengthened considerably. This flight to quality has created a two-tiered market, where the gap between Prime and Secondary grade vacancy rates is increasing. The market is starting to see incentives in Premium space taper off, as well as in higher quality A grade buildings where occupancy is normalising. The last 12 months has been characterised by Australian real estate trusts and funds trading large-scale assets and offshore groups investing. On a rolling year basis, investment volumes are more than three times the value recorded at same time last year and the highest level recorded in the market since June This rise in investor appetite is reflective of confidence levels on the back of improvements in the leasing market. Comparatively speaking, average market yields are still high relative to other Australian markets, particularly Sydney and Melbourne, a factor, along with the strengthening market fundamentals that continues to be a drawcard for investors. PCA Summary Table Perth CBD (as at Jun-18) Premium A Grade Prime Secondary Total AUS CBD Total Stock ( 000) , , ,907.5 Total Vacancy ( 000) ,640.7 Vacancy (%) 4.1 (5.8) 17.7 (11.5) 13.2 (9.7) 28.9 (15.6) 19.4 (12.1) 9.2 (9.2) Net Absorption ( 000) 26.9 (9.9) 11.1 (4.7) 37.9 (14.6) -7.2 (-.4) 30.8 (14.2) (170.4) Net Absorption (%)* 8.5 (3.5) 1.9 (0.8) 4.2 (1.7) -1.4 (-0.1) 2.2 (1.1) 0.9 (1.1) Net Additions ( 000) 0.0 (11.3) -1.3 (17.4) -1.3 (28.8) 1.4 (19.3) 0.1 (48.1) (283.0) Stock Additions ( 000) Stock Withdrawals ( 000) Net Additions (%) 0.0 (3.9) -0.2 (2.8) -0.1 (3.1) 0.2 (3.3) 0.0 (3.2) -0.5 (1.7) (10yr Averages shown in brackets); NB: Secondary Rents shown are for B Grade; All rents equivalent to whole floor mid-rise savills.com.au/research 2

3 Vacancy Recovery has been the theme for the Perth CBD office market over the last months, with strong tenant demand for Prime grade stock triggering a significant decline in Prime vacancy. It is becoming increasingly challenging for larger tenants to secure contiguous floor options, especially in Premium grade space, which now has a vacancy rate of 4.1%, its lowest vacancy factor since June A distinct two-tiered market began to emerge at the tail-end of 2016, with the gap between Prime and Secondary vacancy continuing to widen. This trend is placing downward pressure on incentives, particularly Premium and quality A grade space. One of the most telling signs of recovery is three consecutive periods of positive net absorption. This is the first time this has occurred since The turnaround in net absorption has been a result of tenant demand, rather than supply-led through pre-commitment leasing. Historic Vacancy Rate (Perth CBD) Full Floor Availability by Period 35% 30% Prime Secondary Total 160, ,000 Premium (sq m) A Grade (sq m) 25% 120,000 20% 100,000 15% 80,000 10% 5% 0% 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 In 6 Mths 6 12 Mths 1 2 Yrs > 2 Years / PCA OMR Full Floor Availability In Savills Prime Full Floor Availability Report, the state of the leasing market is assessed in a different manner to most vacancy surveys. The report considers Premium and A grade buildings in the city on a floor-by-floor basis, identifying whole floors competing for tenants - both now and in the future - including those under construction and refurbishment, along with backfill space created by pre-commitment. Having peaked at 180 in August 2016, the number of available full floors has decreased to a four year low of 140 in July 2018, down from 166 a year prior. Of the 140 Prime floors vacant, 127 are available for immediate occupation, 10 floors will be available between six and 12 months and three floors will become available between one and two years. The market for larger contiguous areas has tightened, with just four 5,000 square metre opportunities available, and as at July 2018, there are no options in the market for immediate occupation for a 10,000 square metre tenant. By Grade By Precinct Total Premium A Grade West CBD Mid CBD East CBD Total Prime Floors (No) Total Prime NLA (sq m) 1,131, , , , , ,190 Prime Floors Available (No) Prime Full Floor Avail. (sq m) 168,614 54, , ,169 27,213 16,232 Prime Full Floor Avail. (%) 14.9% 15.3% 14.7% 16.0% 11.9% 13.4% Max Contiguous Floors (No) Max Contiguous Area (sq m) 9,444 9,444 6,198 9,444 3,170 6,198 savills.com.au/research 3

4 Leasing Activity & Demand In the 12 months to June 2018, Savills identified approximately 65,602 square metres of leasing activity (>500 square metres) in the Perth CBD office market. The majority of these leases, approximately 54% of total volume, occurred in the West CBD precinct. Of the 65,602 square metres identified as leased in Perth CBD in the last 12 months, Mining, Utilities & Industry was the dominant sector accounting for 39% of transactions by volume. As reflected in the declining vacancy rate for Premium and A grade stock, the majority of leases have occurred in the Prime end of the market over the last 12 months, highlighting the recent flight to quality trend in the Perth CBD market. The volume of leasing transactions by both the Property and Business Services sector and the Mining sector accounted for approximately 61% in the year to June As a proportion of total leasing volume, these major sectors have been rising for the last three years, indicative of the rise in general business sentiment and prospect of new projects starting in the resource sector. Rivet Mining Services signed for 607 square metres at 140 St Georges Terrace for three years, relocating from Raine Square. Bhagwan Marine, a marine vessel operator servicing the oil and gas industry, has leased 1,105 square metres for their new head office at 251 St Georges Terrace after being awarded a contract to support Rio Tinto s Amrun Project. Minnovo signed for 2,033 square metres for five years at 256 Adelaide Terrace, adding to recent leasing activity for the building. Leasing Activity by Precinct (> 500 square metres) 180,000 East CBD Mid CBD West CBD 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Leasing Activity by Tenant Type (> 500 square metres) Mining 39.2% Prop & Bus Serv 21.5% Fin & Ins 17.6% IT & Comm 7.2% Govt & Community 6.5% W'Sale & Retail 5.8% Undisclosed 2.2% Iluka Resources, who had an active mandate for up to 3,000 square metres since mid-2017, is expected to relocate from 140 St Georges Terrace to 240 St Georges Terrace later this year. WA Super has recently consolidated its offices into 1,102 square metres at 140 St Georges Terrace, while Perth business systems specialist Fortix has leased 1,983 square metres at Stirling Street. Accounting firm Pitcher Partners has relocated from 914 Hay Street, occupying 1,030 square metres in The Esplanade. It must be noted that there are a number of large mandates in the market at the present time, with not only the ability to significantly impact leasing activity, but the ability to reduce the availability of Prime space in better quality assets. FMG, Rio Tinto, WorleyParsons, TechnipFMC, and the State Government are all in the market for up to approximately 58,000 square metres. Net Absorption vs. Growth in Professional Job Ads 200, , ,000 50,000 (50,000) (100,000) Source: DOE / Savills Research Annual Net Abs. PER CBD Prof. Job Ads WA 60% 40% 20% 0% (20%) (40%) (60%) savills.com.au/research 4

5 Western Australia continues to hold the largest year-onyear growth rate nationally for office job advertisements, a clear forward driver of tenant demand. Although coming off a low base relative to actual advertisements in the eastern states, the growth rate in job ad numbers for the state continues to surpass previous reports. The year-onyear growth rate continues to be the highest rate reported since 2012, when mining investment was peaking. Professional Job Advertisement Growth by State (Jun-18) WA 18.3% SA 16.1% TAS 14.9% VIC 13.5% QLD 12.1% AUS 11.2% NSW 8.1% ACT NT 5.7% 6.5% Source: DOE / / Savills Research Recent Notable Leases (by Area Leased) Tenant Property Date NLA (sq m) Type Rent Term CBH Group 240 St Georges Tce, Perth Apr-18 3,790 Direct n.a n.a. Alinta Energy 300 Murray St, Perth Dec-17 3,480 Sublease n.a 6 Iluka Resources 240 St Georges Tce, Perth May-18 3,238 Direct n.a n.a. HWL Ebsworth 240 St Georges Tce, Perth Dec-17 2,477 Direct n.a n.a Virtual Gaming Worlds William St, Perth Feb-18 2,129 Direct n.a 7 Arthur J Gallagher 235 St Georges Tce, Perth Aug-17 2,096 Direct 668 (N) 7 Tetra Tech Companies (Coffey, Proteus, Eco Logical) 235 St Georges Tce, Perth Aug-17 2,096 Direct 610 (N) 5 Minnovo 256 Adelaide Tce, Perth Feb-18 2,033 Direct 300 (N) 5 Fortix Stirling St, Perth Mar-18 1,983 Direct n.a n.a. CleanTeq 40 The Esplanade, Perth Sep-17 1,860 Sublease n.a n.a. Linkforce Engineering 2 Victoria Ave, Perth Jul-17 1,756 Direct n.a n.a. DXC Technology 250 St Georges Tce, Perth Oct-17 1,608 Direct 650 (N) 5 Acknowledge Education 647 Wellington St, Perth Jul-17 1,503 Direct n.a n.a. Brand Agency 556 Wellington St, Perth Jul-17 1,371 Direct 525 (N) 5 Leasing Types: p = Pre-commitment, d = Direct, s = Sub-Lease, r = Renewal savills.com.au/research 5

6 Sales Activity In the 12 months to June 2018, Savills identified approximately $827 million worth of office transactions (> $5 million) in the Perth CBD. On a year-on-year basis, this figure is up more than three times the $193 million reported in the year to June 2017, and well above the five year average of approximately $544 million. While the market has mostly been characterised by institutions trading assets, offshore investors have been very active in Perth, picking up half of the total value reported in the last 12 months, circa $416 million in assets. The level of investment by offshore groups is the largest seen in the last decade and is indicative of the countercyclical strategies being deployed both by foreign investors and domestic groups. Aberdeen Standard Life (recently merged Standard Life and Aberdeen Asset Management) sold 55 St Georges Terrace and 182 St Georges Terrace to Zone Q, a Chinese property developer, for a combined total of $64.60 million. The buildings were originally acquired in 2011 by Standard Life and were reportedly being tabled separately or together in an off-market campaign in November last year. At the time of the sale, both properties had a WALE of less than a year, suggesting that the acquisitions by Zone Q represented a significant repositioning opportunity. Zone Q now has three office assets on the Terrace in Perth, after acquiring Westralia Plaza from the Insurance Commission of Western Australia in 2016 for $87 million. Earlier this year 6-8 Bennett Street Perth sold to Singaporean investor, OKP Holdings, for $43.5 million on a market yield of 8.15%. The acquisition is the first overseas investment property for the group, who announced the entry into Australia as being a significant milestone. The buy is reflective of the counter-cyclical buying trends of late, as investors see the upside of strategically positioned assets and take advantage of the long-term growth prospects in Perth. Elanor Investors Group has acquired Workzone West from Charter Hall for $ million, increasing their portfolio of owned and managed assets to more than $1.25 billion. The A Grade tower is part of a twin-tower complex, which includes the Workzone East tower that was acquired by CorVal Partners at the end of 2016 for $68.25 million. Workzone West is 98% occupied with a WALE of 7.4 years and the sale price reflects a market yield of 7.04%. Elanor has established a new syndicate and will invest approximately 51% of the syndicate equity alongside new capital partners. Sales Activity by Price (> $5 million) $1,800m $1,600m $1,400m $1,200m $1,000m Vendor & Purchaser Type (> $5 million) Yield Spread to Bond & IRR Perth CBD 12% 10% $800m $600m $400m $200m Vendors Purchasers 8% 6% 4% 2% % $0m 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fund Trust Developer Owner Occupier Government Syndicate Foreign Investor Private Investor Other Source: RBA / Savills Research $5m $50m $50m $100m >$100m 10yr Bond Rate Average Perth CBD (Grade A Yield) Average Perth CBD (Grade A IRR) savills.com.au/research 6

7 Market yields in the Perth CBD, as at June 2018, are estimated to range between 5.75% and 7.00% for Premium grade buildings, 6.50% and 7.50% for A grade, and between 7.50% and 8.75% for Secondary grade buildings. The average yield for A grade office buildings in the quarter to June 2018 is 7.00%, representing a 50 basis point tightening over the year. Capital values in the Perth CBD, as at June 2018, are estimated to range from $8,500 per square metre to $12,500 per square metre for Premium grade buildings, between $7,000 per square metre and $9,000 per square metre for A grade, and between $4,800 per square metre and $6,500 per square metre for Secondary grade (B grade) buildings. Although capital values generally eased over three years to mid-2016, some stabilisation emerged in the latter half of 2016, a trend which has continued through to In context, the differential between capital values for the Perth and Sydney CBD markets is the highest it has ever been. With an average premium to purchase an A grade asset in Sydney costing $11,500 per square metre more than in Perth, demand from both domestic and international capital is recognising Perth as a counter-cyclical play and an opportunity to take advantage of greater yields in comparison to the eastern seaboard. Capital Value ($/sq m) vs. Market Yield 12,000 Capital Value PER CBD Market Yield (RHS) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Recent Notable Sales (by Sale Price) Property Price ($m) Date NLA Yield Type $/sq m 141 St Georges Tce Oct-17 32, e 6,626 1 William St (Quadrant) Aug-17 23, e 7, Pier St (Workzone West) Jun-18 15, e 8, Stirling St Aug-17 11, e 5, St Georges Tce Nov-17 10, e 5, Adelaide Tce* Jul-17 14,409 n.a n.a 3, Bennett St Jan-18 10, e 4, St Georges Tce Feb-18 8, e 5, Murray St Apr-18 5, e 3, St Georges Tce Feb-18 5, e 3,897 ; i = Initial, r = Reported, e = Equated, v = Vacant, dev = development *Part of portfolio sale savills.com.au/research 7

8 Supply The market has swung through the bottom of the cycle into recovery, with recent employment growth and a strengthening resources outlook aiding positive net absorption and developer confidence for new projects. Three years after the last major uncommitted office development was completed, a new development cycle is in its infancy, buoying the potential for new projects in the coming years. The most recent being Chevron s announcement that they are committed to building their new circa 52,000sqm tower at Elizabeth Quay. Capital Square, the new headquarters for Woodside, reached practical completion in July. Woodside will relocate from their existing building at 240 St Georges Terrace in the second half of the year, leaving behind backfill space of approximately 40,000 square metres. A number of tenants have already secured space within the building, including CBH Group, HWL Ebsworth and Iluka Resources. Chevron was granted another development extension by the Metropolitan Redevelopment Authority late last year for the Elizabeth Quay sites (Lots 7 and 8) they acquired in 2013 for $64 million, and in June 2018 reported they would be moving ahead with the project with Brookfield appointed as developer. The proposed development on the site, expected to house Chevron s Australian headquarters, has development approval for a circa 52,000 square metre office tower. Chevron currently occupies a number of locations within the CBD, the l argest being circa 28,000 square metres in QV1. Timing on the new development could potentially align with that expiry in 2022/23, however details regarding the partnership with Brookfield and investment of the tower are likely to be confirmed next year. Brookfield Property Partners is proposing a development for Elizabeth Quay sites, Lots 5 and 6, which they purchased from the MRA last year, though the sale price has not yet been disclosed. The Plus Tower development, proposes a twin-tower complex, including a luxury hotel component and initially circa 15,000 square metres of office possibly in line with Chevron s timing. Net Supply by Year (square metres) 160,000 Historic Net Additions 15yr Avg 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 (20,000) (40,000) Source: PCA / Savills Research Savills Forecast savills.com.au/research 8

9 Development Map LEGEND West Perth Statistical Division 6 MURRAY ST ROE ST Statistical Division 5 KINGS PARK RD HAY ST MILLIGAN ST 2 KING ST ST GEORGES TCE WILLIAM ST PERTH WELLINGTON ST Statistical Division 4 Statistical Division 3 Statistical Division 2 Statistical Division BARRACK ST HILL ST ADELAIDE TCE PLAIN ST The table below details the major upcoming and planned development projects in the Perth CBD. Building Address Dev Stage NLA % Comm Exp. Comp Precinct Tenants Capital Square, Mounts Bay Rd Complete 54, West CBD Woodside Hay St & 33 Milligan St PA 10, West CBD Lots 5 Elizabeth Quay EP 15, Mid CBD Lots 7 & 8, Elizabeth Quay EP 52, /23 Mid CBD Chevron QV3 North Tower, 250 St Georges Tce PA 20, West CBD QV2 South Tower, 250 St Georges Tce PA 7, West CBD Source: Cordell / Savills Research; UC = Under Construction, EP = Early Planning, PS = Plans Submitted, PA = Plans Approved. savills.com.au/research 9

10 Rents As at June 2018, net face rents in Perth typically range from $600 to $725 per square metre per annum for Premium grade, $475 to $650 per square metre per annum for A grade, and $250 to $475 per square metre per annum for B grade. There has been no change in the year to June Incentives began to rise in 2013, resulting in a decline in net effective rents over the three years to 2016, before beginning to show signs of stabilising in Prime grade incentives in the CBD are 45% to 50% on average, while Secondary grade incentives are slightly higher, ranging from 50% to 55%. Net Effective Rents by Grade ($/sq m) 900 Premium Grade A Grade B As at June 2018, Premium net effective rents typically range from $320 to $390 per square metre. A decline in Premium grade incentives over the last 12 months has led to small amount of growth on a net effective basis, with Premium net effective rents growing on average 2.2% on the same time last year. A grade net effective rents range average $290 per square metre per annum, while B grade net effective rents average $175 per square metre per annum. B grade incentives increased mid-2017 and remain close to 53% on average. As a result, B grade net effective rents are showing a decline on average of 5.5% over the last 12 months, highlighting the flight to quality trend. Net Face & Net Effective Rents as at Jun-18 ($/sq m) Net Face & Net Effective Rents (as at Jun-18) Net Face Rent Net Effective Rent Net Incentive % rhs Premium Grade A Grade B Outlook Tenant appetite for Prime space has been elevated and we expect to see a continuation of this trend moving forward to the extent that the upper end of the market will continue to pull-back on incentives. Effective rental growth is already beginning to be seen in Premium grade space, albeit slightly. Expect to continue to see a gradual reduction in Premium and A grade net incentives moving forward, returning net effective rental growth to Perth. There are several development projects in the pipeline and after three years, with no new construction outside of Woodside s new headquarters (Capital Square), there are signs that a new development cycle is emerging. In June, Chevron reported they would be moving ahead with their project with Brookfield appointed as developer to build the circa 52,000 square metre building in Elizabeth Quay. Timing on the new development could potentially align with Chevron s current lease tails around 2022/23. Tenant flight to quality has already driven a large gap between Prime and Secondary vacancy, and with no new buildings for at least three years, the technical vacancy rate is likely to decline. Investment capital inflows to Perth remain elevated and well above the long-run average suggesting that Perth is still being considered an investment target by both offshore and domestic investors. While the price differential between Perth and our eastern seaboard counterparts still exists, ongoing compression and eventual rise of bond rates is making it more competitive for investors. On that note, we may see some investors move up the risk-curve seeking value-add or repositioning strategies an outcome that bodes well for Secondary space in Core locations, particularly along the Terrace. savills.com.au/research 10

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12 Perth CBD Key Indicators (Q2-18) Premium A Grade B Grade Low High Low High Low High Rental - Gross Face ($/sq m) Rental - Net Face ($/sq m) Incentive Level Net Rental - Net Effective ($/sq m) Outgoings - Operating ($/sq m) Outgoings - Statutory ($/sq m) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Typical Lease Term Yield - Market (% Net Face Rental) IRR (%) Cars Permanent Reserved ($/pcm) Cars Permanent ($/pcm) Office Capital Values ($/sq m) 8,500 12,500 7,000 9,000 4,750 6,500 NB: All rents equivalent to whole floor mid-rise Key State Office Contacts Research Katy Dean +61 (0) kdean@savills.com.au Capital Transactions Nick Charlton +61 (0) ncharlton@savills.com.au City & Metropolitan Sales Chas Moore +61 (0) cmoore@savills.com.au Research Nicholas Volk +61 (0) nvolk@savills.com.au Office Leasing Graham Postma +61 (0) gpostma@savills.com.au Asset Management Jason Ridge +61 (0) jridge@savills.com.au Valuations Mark Foster-Key +61 (0) mfosterkey@savills.com.au Office Leasing Shelley Ritter +61 (0) sritter@savills.com.au Project Management Graham Nash +61 (0) gnash@savills.com.au The Savills Research & Consultancy team has years of experience, and is supported by our extensive agency, property management and valuation professionals. For national-level consultancy or subscription requirements please contact: Capital Strategy & Research Chris Freeman +61 (0) cfreeman@savills.com.au Savills is a leading global property service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. Trusted since 1855, we have extensive experience across the Asia Pacific, with over 50 offices, and in Australia, we have over 800 staff focused on meeting all your property needs. This information is general information only and is subject to change without notice. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Savills will not be liable for any omissions or errors. Savills will not be liable, including for negligence, for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential losses or damages arising out of our in any way connected with use of any of this information. This information does not form part of or constitute an offer or contract. You should rely on your own enquiries about the accuracy of any information or materials. All images are only for illustrative purposes. This information must not be copied, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Savills. savills.com.au/research 12