Briefing Sydney Industrial April 2018

Transcription

1 Savills Research New South Wales Briefing Sydney Industrial Highlights Demand from the Wholesale retail sector underpinned leasing activity, accounting for 47% of total leasing activity in the 12 months to March 2018; Sydney industrial prime rents recorded positive growth over the past 12 months, following a period of stagnation; An increase in speculative development in conjunction with growing developer confidence has driven industrial supply in Sydney back to pre-gfc levels; Averages (Western Sydney) Latest 12mo Diff Outlook Rental N.F. ($/sq m) 133 n/c Incentives (%) 10.0 n/c Yield Market (%) bps IRR (%) 8.50 n/c Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,925 (+2.7%) Land Values ($/sq m) 475 n/c Although sales volumes were down from the record high levels in the 12 months prior, investor demand remains strong for industrial assets.

2 Report Contents Executive Summary 2 Leasing Activity & Demand 3 Rents and Development 5 Sales Activity 6 Infrastructure & Outlook 9 Key Indicators 10 Key Contacts 10 Senior Analyst Research Houssam Yakzan hyakzan@savills.com.au For our latest national reports, visit savills.com.au/research To join Savills Research mailing list, please research@savills.com.au Executive Summary Over the last 12 months, there has been a notable increase in new supply and a rise in leasing activity in Sydney s industrial market, driven by strong population growth and a strengthening domestic economy. Demand for industrial space in Sydney remains strong, reflected by leasing volumes of 910,000 square metres (including pre-commitments) leased over the past 12 months; just below its 10 year average of 954,000 square metres. Following a prolonged period of subdued rental growth, the lack of quality stock and strong demand for prime industrial space has resulted in above average growth in prime industrial rents over the past three years, rising by 7.1% over this period. Industrial precincts such as the North West and Outer South West Sydney outperformed the market, recording 6.8% and 4.8% growth respectively over the same period. Development of new industrial supply returned to pre-gfc levels, supported by strong tenant demand for new industrial facilities. A surge of speculative development across Western Sydney was evident, with over 80% of speculative developments reported were leased prior to or at practical completion. Sydney Markets Summary - Warehouse Precincts N.F. Rent ($/sq m) Market Yield (%) IRR (%) Cap. Value ($/sq m) Land Value ($/sq m) SYD - South Sydney 170 (n/c) 5.88 (-25 bps) 7.25 (-25 bps) 3,075 (+8.8%) 1,150 (+9.5%) SYD Western 118 (+2.2%) 6.25 (-13 bps) 7.50 (n/c) 2,000 (+9.6%) 538 (+2.4%) SYD - Central West 135 (n/c) 6.25 (-38 bps) 7.63 (n/c) 2,025 (+2.5%) 713 (+5.6%) SYD - North Shore 163 (n/c) 6.75 (-63 bps) 8.38 (n/c) 2,450 (+8.9%) 725 (+11.5%) SYD - North West 118 (+6.8%) 6.63 (-25 bps) 7.75 (-38 bps) 1,750 (+7.7%) 575 (+15.0%) SYD - South West 115 (+2.2%) 6.38 (n/c) 7.63 (-25 bps) 1,925 (+8.5%) 538 (+2.4%) SYD - Outer South West 110 (+4.8%) 6.50 (-38 bps) 8.13 (n/c) 1,675 (+8.1%) 500 (n/c) ; Note: 12 month change shown in brackets, land values reflect serviced & benched sites (3,000-5,000 sq m). n/c = no change savills.com.au/research 2

3 Leasing Activity & Demand Savills recorded approximately 910,000 square metres of industrial leasing activity (>1,000 square metres) in Sydney in the 12 months to March This is in line with the 10 year average of 954,000 square metres. The number of leases identified in the 12 months to March 2018 totalled 102. By comparison, a total of 121 transactions were recorded in the 12 months to December 2016, suggestive of greater demand from larger occupiers. Pre-lease activity accounted for close to 40% (337,200 square metres) of total tenant demand, primarily in Sydney s Western and South Western precincts. The Wholesale retail sector continues to drive leasing activity, accounting for 428,376 square metres, or 47% of total stock leased in the 12 months to March This was closely followed by Transport and Logistics operators, accounting for 350,328 square metres over the same period or 38% of total volumes. Over the past 5 years, much of Australia s demand for industrial warehousing has been driven by large retailers (Supermarkets), 3rd Party Logistic providers and pure online retailers (Amazon, The Iconic). The growth of e-commerce is expected to strain many supply chains in the future, as more consumers move towards on-demand consumption. Traditional retailers are now understanding the need to review their existing supply chain(s) and to focus on 'business to consumer' (B2C) distribution channels in order to adapt quickly to this change in consumer behaviour. Whilst online retailing remains a largely immature market in the Australian retail landscape, online trade growth has outpaced traditional retailing over the recent past, although at a volatile pace, indicating the changing nature of consumer tastes and shopping habits. In the 12 months to July 2017, online shopping only accounted for around 7.5% ($23.3 billion) of spending at traditional bricks and mortar retailers, as measured by the ABS. It s expected the e-commerce sector has plenty of headroom and should continue grow with each generation. Leasing Activity by Precinct (>1,000 square metres) Western Central West Outer South West 1,650,000 Western South West Central South West Outer North South West West 1,650,000 South North West Shore South Non-Metro North West 1,500,000 North Shore Non-Metro 1,500,000 1,350,000 1,350,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,050,000 1,050, , , , , , , , , , , , , Leasing Activity by Industry Type (>1,000 square metres) Wholesale - 428,376sqm % 1,650,000 1,500,000 1,350,000 1,200,000 1,050, , , , , , ,000 Wholesale - 428,376sqm % Transport & Logistics - 350,328sqm Transport &- Logistics 38.5% - 350,328sqm % Manuf/Engineering - 94,873sqm % Manuf/Engineering - 94,873sqm % Health / Community Services / Education Health / Community - 17,379sqm Services - 1.9% / Education - 17,379sqm - 1.9% Construction, Mining & Agri - 12,911sqm Construction, - 1.4% Mining & Agri - 12,911sqm - 1.4% Property & Business Services - 1,852sqm Property &- 0.2% Business Services - 1,852sqm - 0.2% Leasing Activity by Lease Type (>1,000 square metres) Direct - New Direct - Existing Precommit Sublease Leaseback Renewal savills.com.au/research 3

4 Job advertisement for the industrial sector are indicative of continued strength in leasing demand for industrial space over the short to medium term. Whilst growth in industrial job advertisements in NSW appears subdued relative to other Australian states, the base is much higher than the other states. In the 12 months to March 2018, there were 128,800 logistics related job advertisements, which was circa 40% greater than the next largest market of Victoria. The current level of growth for logistics job advertisements is in line with long term averages and are thus conducive of improving tenant demand. Logistics Job Advertisements (12 mo Growth to Mar-18) WA 28.7 QLD 23.1 NT 16.0 SA 15.1 AUS 14.8 VIC 13.6 ACT 12.1 TAS 7.7 NSW 6.5 Source: DOE / Savills Research Top 15 Leases (by Area Leased) Property Tenant Date Area Leased (sq m) Type Rent Term 36 Huntingwood Dr, Huntingwood Chemist Warehouse Jan-18 33,500 p Hume Hwy, Chullora Australia Post Dec-17 21,500 d-n (Part) Lot 2012 Eastern Creek Dr, Eastern Creek Silk Contract Logistics Dec-17 15,665 d-n Waterloo Rd, Chullora EWE Global Express Feb-18 14,418 d-e Building 7, Hollinsworth Rd, Marsden Park estore Logistics Sep-17 12,800 p Williamson Rd, Ingleburn Visy PET Bottles Jan-18 11,987 d-e Penelope Crescent, Arndell Park YHI Australia Aug-17 11,419 d-e Cumberland Industrial Estate, Smithfield Nissan Dec-17 10,344 d-e A Raffles Glade, Eastern Creek Cleanaway Sep-17 8,439 d-e John Morphett Pl, Erskine Park VISA Global Logistics Oct-17 7,531 p Unit Moorebank Ave, Moorebank McPhee Distribution Services Aug-17 7,441 d-e 75 3 Unit Moorebank Ave, Moorebank VillaPlaster Aug-17 7,197 d-e 90 5 Quarry Industrial Estate, Greystanes Power Plastics Feb-18 6,700 d-n Woodpark Rd, Smithfield WesTrucks Mar-18 4,200 d-e Loftus Rd, Yennora Porter Group Feb-18 3,300 d-e ; Leasing Types: p = Pre-commitment, d-n = Direct New, d-e = Direct Existing, pl = Pre-Lease, s = Sub-Lease, r = Renewal savills.com.au/research 4

5 Rents Average Net Face Rents by Precinct Average prime grade industrial rents in Sydney have remained largely subdued over the last 10 years, growing at circa 1% per annum over this period. However, growing demand for new industrial facilities have led to a rents growing over the last 3 years at nearly double the annual rate of the 10yr CAGR. In particular, rental growth in precincts such as the North West and Outer South West Sydney outperformed the market, recording 12.5% and 16.5% growth respectively over the 3 year period SYD - West SYD - Nth Shore SYD - Outer South West SYD - South West SYD - Cntrl West SYD - Nth West SYD - South Sydney Positive sentiment surrounding population growth and record levels of infrastructure spending is already boosting job growth, helping support the view for positive rental growth forecasts over the medium-term As at March 2018, prime industrial net rents in South Sydney ranged between $140 and $200 per square metre, whilst rents in secondary buildings ranged between $120 and $140 per square metre. industrial rents in Western Sydney ranged between $110 and $125 per square metre. Whilst secondary rents range between $80 and $100 per square metre. Supply / Industrial Development Supply in Sydney s industrial market over the first half of 2018 is expected to exceed 410,000 square metres, on latest available data from Savills Research, with over 50% of this development concentrated in Western Sydney, it is clear that above average employment and population growth in Sydney s West is having a positive effect on the area. Looking at speculative development, this view is further reinforced, with industrial space currently under construction (on a speculative basis) similarly concentrated in Sydney s western precincts. New supply was largely pre-committed in 2017, led by the Logistics sector, with Toll pre-committing to 60,000 square metres in Sydney s South Western precinct and Australia Post committing to 21,500 square metres in a Charter Hall developed facility in Sydney s Central West. A competitive rental market driven by speculative developers keen on securing pre-commitments has seen tenants signing rental agreements at competitive rates. NSW industrial supply pipeline 700,000 Completed Under Construction 600, , , , , ,000 0 Source: Cordell / Savills Research NB: *includes new/addition speculative, pre-commitment, owner occupier development types savills.com.au/research 5

6 Sales Activity Investor demand remains strong, despite the drop in sales volumes and number of transactions from the record high levels posted over the past two years, local and overseas purchasers are actively seeking out investment opportunities to grow their portfolios. This competition for Sydney industrial assets is expected to intensify and push prices up and continue to have a firming effect on yields. Anecdotal evidence is suggestive of offshore investors greater competitiveness in acquiring industrial assets in Sydney, compared to local investors and REITs. Savills recorded approximately $817 million worth of industrial transactions (>$5 million) in the 12 months to March 2018, down on the levels recorded in the previous year ($3.4 billion), and slightly below the five year average ($2.1 billion). In the 12 months to March 2018, 43 properties were sold, down from the previous 12 months total of 155. Transactional activity is expected to remain steady in the next 12 months, however the ability to unlock investment stock is expected to become more challenging, as owners hold onto stock for income returns. The lack of significant sales over the past 12 months has resulted in Private Investors becoming the most active buyer group in the past year, purchasing 50% of stock sold over the period. Transactions have typically ranged between $5 million and $20 million and predominantly focused on warehouse type assets. Many of the assets acquired with vacant possession were mostly located in the Western Sydney market. Sales Activity by Price (>$5 million) $4,000m $5m - $50m $50m - $100m >$100m $3,500m $3,000m $2,500m $2,000m $1,500m $1,000m $500m $0m Vendor & Purchaser Composition Vendors Vendors Purchasers Purchasers 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fund Trust Developer 0% Owner Occupier 20% 40% Government60% Syndicate 80% 100% Fund Foreign Investor Trust Private Investor Developer Other Owner Occupier Government Syndicate Foreign Investor Private Investor Other While setting new benchmarks for both yields and capital values, assets continued to benefit from the spread between property yields and long-term Government bond yields, which remained low (2.60% as at March 2018). Whilst it appears that the yield compression cycle across Sydney may be nearing a floor, Savills Research believe that industrial assets will remain attractive to many investors seeking a greater spread to long term Government bond yields, with recent rental growth providing a positive outlook on over the medium-term. Yield Spread to Bond 10yr Bond & IRR Rate Sydney 12% Average IRR 10% 10yr Bond Rate 12% Average IRR 8% 10% 6% 8% 4% 6% 2% 4% % Average Yield Average Yield 2% % Source: RBA/Savills savills.com.au/research 6

7 Over the last 12 months, heightened demand for industrial development sites was evident, reflecting significant growth in land values. A range of A-REITs and private equity groups acquired multiple larger strategic land banks. Notably, GPT and Charter Hall acquiring large land banks in Erskine Park. Pockets of Western Sydney and South Sydney recorded a significant uplift in industrial land values, due to yield compression over the last 24 months. Average industrial land values in Western Sydney, as at March 2018, ranged between $450 per square metre to $500 per square metre for sites ranging between 10,000 and 50,000 square metres. Average prime yields for industrial investments in the South West, Central West and Western precincts, typically range between 5.75% and 6.50%. We note there is evidence nationally of prime assets with long WALE profiles (>10 years) reflecting yields of sub 5.50%, which is expected to place further tightening pressure on yields. Average industrial capital values in Western Sydney as at March 2018 ranged between $1,600 to $2,150 per square metre for prime assets and between $1,100 and $1,600 per square metre for secondary properties. Over the next 12 months Savills anticipates industrial investment to remain relatively strong as investors continue to seek both core and non-core investment opportunities. Average Market Yield by Precinct SYD - West SYD - Cntrl West 10.5 SYD SYD - Nth - West Shore SYD SYD - Nth - Cntrl West West SYD SYD - Outer - Nth Shore South West SYD SYD - South - Nth West Sydney 10.0 SYD SYD - South - Outer West South West SYD - South Sydney 9.5 SYD - South West Average Land Values by Precinct SYD - West SYD - Cntrl West SYD SYD - West - Nth Shore SYD SYD - Cntrl - Nth West West 1,300 SYD - Nth Shore SYD - Nth West 1,300 SYD - Outer South West SYD - South Sydney SYD SYD - Outer - South South West West SYD - South Sydney 1,100 SYD - South West 1, Top Sales Property Type Price ($m) Date GLA Yield Type $/sq m 2-6 Moore St, Banksmeadow Warehouse Dec-17 20, i 3,469 Old Walgrove Rd, Eastern Creek Land Dec ,000 n.a dev South Creek Rd, Cromer Warehouse Sep-17 25,999 n.a v 2, Moore St, Banksmeadow Warehouse Mar-18 18,500 n.a n.a 1,946 Lot 532 Eastern Creek Dr, Eastern Creek Land Feb-18 57,490 n.a dev 610 Berkeley Distribution Centre* Warehouse Jan-18 27,761 n.a n.a 1,225 5 Inglis Rd, Ingleburn Warehouse May-17 20, e 1,537 5 Williamson Rd, Ingleburn Warehouse Aug-17 19, r 1, Bourke Rd, Alexandria Land Feb-18 6,175 n.a dev 3, Mars Rd, Lane Cove West Warehouse Jul-17 6,794 n.a n.a 3, Mccredie Rd, Smithfield Warehouse Jul-17 20,236 n.a v 1, Military Rd, Matraville Warehouse Mar-18 3, i 6,902 12A Rodborough Rd, Frenchs Forest Warehouse Sep-17 7, r 2, Jumal Place, Smithfield Warehouse Jul-17 13,444 n.a v 1, Newton Rd, Wetherill Park Warehouse May-17 13, r 1,398 ; i = Initial, r = Reported, e = Equated, v = Vacant, dev = development savills.com.au/research 7

8 Infrastructure In June 2014, the Government announced Rebuilding NSW which aimed to solve many infrastructure issues across NSW. The plan detailed over $20 billion in new productive infrastructure, recognising the importance of sustaining productivity growth in our major centres as well as supporting population growth. Significant spending on major road and rail infrastructure initiatives are anticipated to improve connectivity to Sydney s industrial precincts, with the WestConnex motorway project being Australia s largest Roads and Maritime Services project. Key Infrastructure Project Summary - Sydney Project WestConnex Motorway Location Est. Cost ($billion) Status Completion Various u/c 2023 NorthConnex Various 3.00 u/c 2019 Sydney Airport Area Road Upgrades Source: NSW Government/ Savills Research. U/C = Under Construction Mascot 0.26 u/c 2020 Commencing in 2015, Westconnex involved the widening of lanes on Parramatta Road and the M4 and is scheduled for completion in The 33 kilometre project will bring together a number of Sydney s freeways from the Orbital Network. The scope of works include the widening of the M4 east of Parramatta, a duplication of the M5 East and new sections of motorway to provide a connection between the two key corridors. The Western Sydney Infrastructure Plan is a $3.5 billion initiative by the State and Federal Government, which will provide new and upgraded road systems to support the future demands of the second airport at Badgerys Creek. The plan provides for many improvements to existing Western Sydney roads, as well as the proposal of a new motorway link (M12) connecting the new airport with the M7. For industrial occupiers, this road investment program will improve road transport capacity and functionality. Outlook Sydney s industrial landscape is quickly changing to accommodate a growing population, with forecasts indicating Sydney s population will grow significantly over the next 25 years. Significant spending on major road and rail infrastructure initiatives are anticipated to improve connectivity to Sydney s industrial precincts. With strong economic fundamentals expected to continue over the long term, combined with the rise in e-commerce and a growing population, industrial tenant demand from the Transport & Logistics industry and Wholesale operators for logistics facilities is expected to strengthen across all Sydney industrial precincts. For investors, improved leasing conditions and rising effective rents is driving demand for prime assets. However, the opportunities to acquire assets is becoming increasingly more difficult as limited investment grade stock reach the sales market. With developers, A-REITs and private equity groups are all expected to focus on developable land across all precincts and thus competing for limited land opportunities, placing upward pressure on already record high land values. savills.com.au/research 8

9 Sydney Industrial Precincts savills.com.au/research 9

10 Sydney Industrial Key Indicators (Q1-2018) South Sydney (Alexandria, Botany, Banksmeadow, Rosebery) Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Incentives (%) Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 2,150 4,000 1,600 2,100 1,300 (high) 1,000 (low) 1,000 (high) 900 (low) South West Sydney (Chipping Norton, Moorebank, Prestons) Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Incentives (%) Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,600 2,250 1,200 1,650 Land Values 10 ha and above ($/sq m) 575 (high) 500 (low) 500 (high) 450 (low) 425 (high) 375 (low) Outer South West Sydney (Campbelltown, Ingleburn, Minto, Smeaton Grange) Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Incentives (%) Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,500 1,850 1,100 1,400 Land Values 10 ha and above ($/sq m) 550 (high) 450 (low) 450 (high) 375 (low) 375 (high) 300 (low) savills.com.au/research 10

11 Central West Sydney (Auburn, Greenacre, Chullora, Granville, Homebush, Rydalmere, Silverwater, Regents Park) Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Incentives (%) Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,750 2,300 1,400 1,800 Land Values 10 ha and above ($/sq m) 750 (high) 675 (low) 675 (high) 600 (low) 600 (high) 500 (low) Western Sydney (Arndell Park, Eastern Creek, Erskine Park, Greystanes, Huntingwood, Smithfield, Wetherill Park, Yennora) Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Incentives (%) Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,750 2,250 1,200 1,700 Land Values 10 ha and above ($/sq m) 575 (high) 500 (low) 500 (high) 450 (low) 425 (high) 375 (low) savills.com.au/research 11

12 North Western Sydney (Seven Hills, Kings Park, Blacktown, Marsden Park, Baulkham Hills) Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Incentives (%) Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,500 2,000 1,200 1,450 Land Values 10 ha and above ($/sq m) 600 (high) 550 (low) 550 (high) 450 (low) 400 (high) 350 (low) North Shore (Artarmon, Lane Cove, St Leonards) Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Incentives (%) Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,950 2,950 1,350 1, (high) 700 (low) 700 (high) 625 (low) savills.com.au/research 12

13 Key State Industrial Contacts Research Houssam Yakzan +61 (0) hyakzan@savills.com.au Capital Transactions Ian Hetherington +61 (0) ihetherington@savills.com.au Valuations Al Carpenter +61 (0) acarpenter@savills.com.au Project Management Gavin Boswarva +61 (0) gboswarva@savills.com.au Industrial & Business Services Darren Curry +61 (0) dcurry@savills.com.au Asset Management Howard Chapman +61 (0) hchapman@savills.com.au The Savills Research & Consultancy team has years of experience, and is supported by our extensive agency, property management and valuation professionals. For national-level consultancy or subscription requirements please contact: Capital Strategy & Research Chris Freeman +61 (0) cfreeman@savills.com.au Savills is a leading global property service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. Trusted since 1855, we have extensive experience across the Asia Pacific, with over 50 offices, and in Australia, we have over 800 staff focused on meeting all your property needs. This information is general information only and is subject to change without notice. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Savills will not be liable for any omissions or errors. Savills will not be liable, including for negligence, for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential losses or damages arising out of our in any way connected with use of any of this information. This information does not form part of or constitute an offer or contract. You should rely on your own enquiries about the accuracy of any information or materials. All images are only for illustrative purposes. This information must not be copied, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Savills. savills.com.au/research 13