OUTLOOK EAST LEPPINGTON

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1 OUTLOOK EAST LEPPINGTON A CONTEXT ON BUSINESS, CULTURE, LIFESTYLE AND RESIDENTIAL Located within the rapidly expanding South West Growth Centre of Sydney, the East Leppington Precinct is well positioned to benefit from the region s strong infrastructure investment and residential market growth. A B C D E F APRIL 2016 LOCATION Strong local amenity including significant open space, recreation and retail services. / PG02 INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT East Leppington is well positioned to benefit from major infrastructure investment in the region. / PG04 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH South West Sydney has growing employment nodes with over 120,000 new jobs anticipated by / PG04 POPULATION GROWTH A population that is projected to grow faster than the Sydney average growth rate. / PG05 SALES PRICE GROWTH Median house price growth of 22% during 2015 / PG06 RENTAL GROWTH Strong rental price growth for houses and units exceeding the surrounding region / PG07 EAST LEPPINGTON IS WELL SERVICED BY OPEN SPACE. THE LEPPINGTON TRAIN STATION PROVIDES GOOD PUBLIC TRANSPORT ACCESS FOR RESIDENTS. THE SOUTH WEST GROWTH CENTRE COMPRISES SIGNIFICANT NEW RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. East Leppington is experiencing all three of the Urbis Economics and Market Research residential market fundamentals that support a sustainable suburb Population Growth, Infrastructure Investment and Employment Generation.

2 SYDNEY CBD LIVERPOOL CITY CENTRE km LEPPINGTON TRAIN STATION 7 WESTERN SYDNEY EMPLOYMENT AREA PROPOSED WESTERN SYDNEY AIRPORT East Leppington is located within South West Sydney, approximately 45km south-west of the Sydney CBD, and forms part of both the Campbelltown and Camden Local Government Areas (LGAs). East Leppington is a release area (comprising greenfield land that has been released by the NSW Government for development) forming part of the South West Growth Centre and is located in close proximity to recreational areas and shopping precincts. 2 URBIS EAST LEPPINGTON MARKET OUTLOOK

3 LOCATION & ACCESSIBILITY East Leppington HUME MOTORWAY 30 CAMDEN VALLEY WAY CAMPBELLTOWN CITY CENTRE km km km km km 26 Retail And Entertainment Education LEGEND 1. Leppington Fair Shopping Centre 2. Ingleburn Fair Shopping Centre 3. Crossroads Homemaker Centre 4. Carnes Hill Marketplace 5. Eagle Vale Marketplace 6. Glenquarie Town Centre 7. Leppington Public School 8. John Edmondson High School 9. William Caret Christian School 10. Ingleburn North Public School 11. Bardia Public School 12. Hoxton Park High School 13. Hurlstone Agricultural High School 14. Greenway Park Public School 15. Robert Townson Public School Western Sydney University Campbelltown Campus TAFE NSW South Western Sydney Institute Health 18. Liverpool Hospital 19. Sydney Southwest Private Hospital 20. Camden Hospital 21. Campbelltown Hospital The area is also located near a number of significant employment nodes, including the Western Sydney Employment Area (WSEA) and Liverpool CBD. Newly developed transport infrastructure, including the new Leppington Train Station, connects residents to major centres throughout Sydney such as the Sydney and Parramatta CBDs. 15km 20 Parks and Recreation 22. Macquarie Links International Golf Club 23. Macquarie Fields Indoor Sports Complex 24. Camden Lakeside Country Club 25. Sydney Horse Riding Centre 26. Camden Valley Golf Resort 27. Macarthur Grange Country Club 28. Raby Sports Complex 29. Eagle Vale Leisure Centre 30. Minto Indoor Sport Centre 31. Tree Valley Golf Course URBIS EAST LEPPINGTON MARKET OUTLOOK 3

4 INFRASTRUCTURE & EMPLOYMENT The NSW Government projects upward of 53,300 new jobs by 2036 in the Campbelltown and Camden LGAs. EMPLOYMENT For the purpose of this profile, a Study Area has been defined for the assessment of population growth, demographic characteristics and the property market. This reflects the fact that East Leppington is a new release area, meaning historical data is limited and a wider study area is required to analyse market indicators. The Study Area includes the adjacent LGAs of Camden and Campbelltown, which cover the East Leppington precinct. According to the NSW Bureau of Transport and Statistics, the Study Area boasts several major employment precincts that are projected to record significant growth over the next 25 years. These employment areas include Ingleburn, Minto, Smeaton Grange industrial precincts and the Campbelltown City Centre (which includes Campbelltown Hospital and the Western Sydney University). Employment in the Study Area is projected to increase by approximately 53,390 new jobs by 2036, equating to an increase of 76%. The Study Area is also located near other major employment centres within South West Sydney such as Liverpool and Bankstown and express public transport services provide good access to major CBDs such as Parramatta and Sydney. AREA 2011 CURRENT 2036 FORECAST NEW JOBS CAMPBELLTOWN CITY CENTRE 8,200 12,330 4,130 INGLEBURN INDUSTRIAL PRECINCT 5,150 7,150 2,000 MINTO INDUSTRIAL PRECINCT 7,280 10,270 2,990 SMEATON GRANGE INDUSTRIAL PRECINCT 4,890 8,000 3,110 CAMPBELLTOWN AND CAMDEN LGAs 70, ,020 53,390 SOUTH WEST SYDNEY 209, , ,680 OTHER MAJOR CENTRES BANKSTOWN AIRPORT MILPERRA 15,300 17,344 2,044 LIVERPOOL CITY CENTRE 17,106 29,221 12,115 PARRAMATTA CBD 46,589 65,522 18,933 Source: NSW Bureau of Transport Statistics (2014) INFRASTRUCTURE The Study Area is serviced by an extensive network of transport infrastructure. In addition, the Study Area is well placed to benefit from over $7.5 billion in infrastructure investment across transport, health and retail amenity. WESTERN SYDNEY AIRPORT (Mid 2020s) - $2.5 billion The Australian Government has announced that Badgerys Creek will be the site for a new airport for Western Sydney. The development of Sydney s second airport is expected to generate around an additional 30,000 jobs by 2035 and act as a catalyst for business investment in the region. SOUTH WEST RAIL LINK (Completed in 2015) $2.1 billion A new 11.4 kilometre rail line from Glenfield to Leppington was opened in 2015 with two new stations located at Edmondson Park and Leppington. The investment has significantly improved public transport to the East Leppington Precinct and accessibility for residents throughout Sydney. THE NORTHERN ROAD UPGRADE (2019) $1.6 billion The upgrading of the Northern Road from Narellan to Jamison Road in Penrith (totalling around 35 km in length). The benefits of the upgrade will include improved travel times, road capacity and road safety. BRINGELLY ROAD UPGRADE (2016) $509 million The 10 km project includes the upgrade of Bringelly Road to include additional lanes and the upgrade of the Eastwood Road intersection. CAMPBELLTOWN HOSPITAL REDEVELOPMENT (2016) - $443 million A redevelopment of the hospital including an additional 90 inpatient beds, new emergency department, construction of a Clinical School and expansion of other medical facilities. MACARTHUR SQUARE REDEVELOPMENT (2017) - $240 million Construction of new full-line Coles and ALDI supermarkets, expanded and refurbished Target, refurbished Woolworths and David Jones, around 45 new specialty stores and approximately 550 new car spaces. NARELLAN TOWN CENTRE (2017) - $150 million Expansion of retail floorspace from 35,000 sq.m to 70,000 sq.m including a sky bridge over Camden Valley Way, which will join the existing and new shopping precincts together to form one cohesive regional retail centre. 4 URBIS EAST LEPPINGTON MARKET OUTLOOK

5 The East Leppington Study Area is projected to have annual population growth of over 8,000 per year. POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the Study Area has recorded population growth of 1.7% per annum between 2009 and This was above the average growth rate of 1.6% achieved by Metropolitan Sydney during the same period. Based on data from the NSW Department of Planning and Environment, the population of the Study Area is projected to increase by more than 137,400 people between 2014 and The projected growth equates to an average of 8,080 new residents per year at a growth rate of 2.9% per annum, and is expected to grow faster than Sydney (1.5% per annum). The Study Area has a significant white collar labour force, comprising 64% of employed residents. This includes a high proportion of managers and professionals (accounting for 26% of employed residents) that has increased between 2006 and An increasing affluent and more educated resident population The growing well-educated and professional workforce is reflected in an increasing average household income. The average household income within the Study Area was $84,830 in 2011, which is 27% above what was recorded in The projected high population growth rate coupled with an affluent white collar workforce within the Study Area represents a key demand driver for residential dwellings in the area. POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION 400, , , , , , ,000 50,000 - ACTUAL POPULATION 8,080 NEW RESIDENTS PER YEAR Source: ABS, NSW Department of Planning and Environment, Urbis OCCUPATION BY RESIDENTS (2011) WHO LIVES IN THE STUDY AREA? Labourers Machinery operators & Drivers Sales Workers 11% 11% 11% 11% STUDY AREA 2011 STUDY AREA 2006 STUDY AREA 2006 STUDY AREA 2011 Average Age of Residents 33 years 35 years Employed as Professionals 14% 16% Clerical & Administrative Workers Community & Personal Service Workers Technicians & trades workers 9% 15% 16% 18% 19% Employed in White Collar Jobs 63% 64% Bachelor Degree or Higher 12% 16% Professionals 14% Managers 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% SHARE OF POPULATION (%) Average Household Income $67,000 $84,830 Household Income Above $130,000 11% 19% Source: ABS 2006 and 2011 Census, Urbis Prepared by Urbis; Source ABS 2006 and 2011 Census Data URBIS EAST LEPPINGTON MARKET OUTLOOK 5

6 RESIDENTIAL MARKET The East Leppington Study Area has recorded strong unit price growth averaging per year over the last five years. STUDY AREA HOUSE MARKET The Study Area recorded approximately 4,100 settled house sales in The number of house sales averaged around 2,880 between 2004 and 2012 before increasing significantly over the last three years with a peak of around 4,500 in This reflected the significant activity in the Study Area including new house releases in the South West Growth Centre. Houses recorded a median sales price of $585,100 in 2015, reflecting average annual growth of 10.1% per annum over the last five years. This followed a five year period of stable prices between 2004 and 2009 that also included the Global Financial Crisis. The price growth in the Study Area was higher than the Metropolitan Sydney average of 7.3% over the last five years. STUDY AREA UNIT MARKET During 2015, the Study Area recorded a median unit price (comprising apartments and semi-detached houses) of $410,000 based on 735 settled transactions (excluding recent off-the-plan sales that have not settled). Unit product within the Study Area has historically shown consistent price growth recording a 10 year median price increase of 5.7% per annum. The price growth in the Study Area was marginally above the Metropolitan Sydney average of 5.6% over the last 10 years. Over the past three years there has been an upward trend in activity, due to the large increases in units and townhouses supplied to the market. The relatively high transaction levels, coupled with increasing median unit sale prices, indicate that new unit stock has been readily absorbed. NEW HOUSING SUPPLY Data compiled by Cordell Connect as of February 2016 indicates that there are an estimated 4,275 residential dwellings proposed to be completed in the Study Area over the next four years. Just over 3,000 dwellings are anticipated to be completed by 2017, highlighting that the majority of proposed supply is in the construction stage. Looking ahead, the Study Area is anticipated to continue to evolve with medium density and apartment developments to enter the market as well as increased investment in state and local infrastructure projects that is expected to further enhance the amenity and accessibility for existing and new residents. STUDY AREA HOUSE SALES MEDIAN PRICE Source: Pricefinder, Urbis STUDY AREA UNIT SALES MEDIAN PRICE $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 Source: Pricefinder, Urbis FUTURE RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN STUDY AREA (as at February 2016) 1, Source: Cordell Connect HOUSE AND UNIT PRICE GROWTH 2015 HOUSES UNITS Source: Pricefinder 1, YEAR % YEAR 10.1% HOUSE SALES MEDIAN HOUSE SALE PRICE $ UNIT SALES MEDIAN UNIT SALE PRICE $ ,275 TOTAL 10 YEAR 6.0% 13.9% 10.0% 5.7% 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 1,200 1, NUMBER OF SALES NUMBER OF SALES 6 URBIS EAST LEPPINGTON MARKET OUTLOOK

7 The Study Area has recorded strong rental growth over the last decade. RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS The Study Area has a similar proportion of households renting (28%) as the Sydney South West region at 29%. The number of household renting in the Study Area has increased by around 835 over the last decade as more households choose to rent in the area. MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT FOR 2 BEDROOM UNIT MEDIAN RENT ($) $450 CAMPBELLTOWN LGA $400 SYDNEY OUTER RING $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Prepared by Urbis; Source NSW Department of Housing Rent Data (December 2015) MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT FOR 3 BEDROOM HOUSES UNIT MARKET According to the NSW Department of Housing, two bedroom units in the Campbelltown LGA recorded a median rent of $400 per week in the December Quarter Over the last decade, median rents in the Campbelltown LGA have recorded annual growth of 9.6% per annum, significantly higher than recorded in the Outer Sydney Ring of 5.5%. It is noted that median unit price data was not available for the Camden LGA. HOUSE MARKET Three bedroom houses represent the major component of rental dwellings in the Study Area (65%). According to the NSW Department of Housing, three bedroom houses have recorded median weekly rental growth of 6.2% for Campbelltown LGA and 5.6% for Camden LGA over the 12 months to December According to the APM Pricefinder, houses in East Leppington and adjacent suburbs achieved an indicative gross rental yield of % for the 12 months to September 2015, above the Sydney average of 3.1%. This highlights the strong rents achieved in the area relative to sales prices. MEDIAN RENT ($) $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 CAMPBELLTOWN LGA CAMDEN LGA SYDNEY OUTER RING Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 MEDIAN WEEKLY RENTS FOR 2 BEDROOM UNITS THE STUDY AREA V BENCHMARK REGION DECEMBER Q 2005 DECEMBER Q 2015 ANNUAL % GROWTH CAMPBELLTOWN LGA $160 $ % SYDNEY OUTER RING $240 $ % Prepared by Urbis; Source NSW Department of Housing Rent Data (December 2015) RENTING HOUSEHOLDS STUDY AREA RENTING HOUSEHOLDS (NO.) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,802 Prepared by Urbis; Source ABS Census 3,354 3, Prepared by Urbis; Source NSW Department of Housing Rent Data (December 2015) MEDIAN WEEKLY RENTS FOR 3 BEDROOM HOUSES THE STUDY AREA V BENCHMARK REGION DECEMBER Q 2005 DECEMBER Q 2015 ANNUAL % GROWTH CAMPBELLTOWN LGA $220 $ % CAMDEN LGA $260 $ % SYDNEY OUTER RING $250 $ % Prepared by Urbis; Source NSW Department of Housing Rent Data (December 2015) URBIS EAST LEPPINGTON MARKET OUTLOOK 7

8 Sydney Level 23, Darling Park Tower Sussex Street Sydney NSW This publication is prepared on the instruction of Stockland and is not suitable for use other than by the party to whom it is addressed. As the publication involves projections and assumptions it can be affected by a number of unforeseen variables. The forecasts and assumptions are a prediction and whilst Urbis has made every effect to ensure that the forecasts and assumptions are based on reasonable information, they may be affected by assumptions that do not necessarily eventuate or by know or unknown risks and uncertainties. It should be noted that past performance is not necessarily a reliable indication of future performance. The information in the publication does not represent financial advice and should not be regarded as such. It has been prepared without taking into account your financial situation or investment objectives. You should consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your current financial situation or needs. Urbis accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. The information is subject to change without notice and Urbis is under no obligation to update the information or correct any assumptions which may change over time. This study has been prepared for the sole use of Stockland and is not to be relied upon by any third party without specific approval from Urbis. This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrievals system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be addressed to the publishers. EMR0532

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