URBIS RESIDENTIAL MARKET & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK HAMILTON

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1 URBIS RESIDENTIAL MARKET & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FEBRUARY 2015

2 WALKABILITY & ACCESSIBILITY Hamilton NEW FARM 4 OXFORD STREET GOLD COAST 40MIN PORT OF BRISBANE 15MIN ROYAL QUEENSLAND GOLF CLUB 3MIN NORTHSHORE BUSINESS & INNOVATION PRECINCT 3MIN KINGSFORD SMITH DRIVE 5 BRISBANE AIRPORT 13MIN SUNSHINE COAST 1HOUR DOOMBEN RACECOURSE 2MIN DOOMBEN TRAIN STATION 2MIN EAGLE FARM RACECOURSE 2MIN Hamilton is one of Brisbane s most significant waterfront development precincts, with $5 billion of investment expected by Located within 5 kilometres of the Brisbane Central Business District (CBD), Hamilton is well-serviced with an array of public transport options, allowing high accessibility to major employment nodes and diverse lifestyle amenities. The region is becoming increasingly popular with high income Gen Y workers and wealthy owner-occupiers who are attracted to the premium waterfront living. The suburb incorporates an extensive network of parkland and community space and a wide range of lifestyle amenities including 3 supermarkets, casual and fine dining, a range of fashion boutiques and a five-screen cinema. The Hamilton precinct is set to benefit from significant investment in the region. Northshore Hamilton is the largest waterfront urban renewal project in Brisbane and has been regarded as a Priority Development Area (PDA) by Economic Development Queensland (EDQ). The project has a vision to deliver a vibrant, mixed-use master-planned community of over 15,000 residents and 15,000 office workers, integrated with innovative urban design and world-class infrastructure. This project will provide a catalyst towards Hamilton becoming one of Brisbane s most desirable residential precincts. 2 URBIS MARKET OUTLOOK

3 BRISBANE CBD FORTITUDE VALLEY BULIMBA 3 RACECOURSE ROAD Walking/Bike Path Ferry Terminals Bus Stop Entertainment, Shopping & Dining 1 PORTSIDE WHARF 2 DOCKLANDS HARBOUR 3 RACECOURSE ROAD 4 OXFORD STREET IGA SUPERMARKET WOOLWORTHS COLES SUPERMARKET 25+ CAFES, RESTAURANTS & BARS 15 RESTAURANTS 8 SPECIALTY STORES 7 FASHION BOUTIQUES 24/7 GYM 5 SCREEN CINEMA CRUISE SHIP TERMINAL PILATES STUDIO DENTAL CLINIC RESTAURANTS/CAFES 3 SPECIALTY STORES 24/7 GYM MEDICAL CENTRE 28+ CAFES, RESTAURANTS & BARS 130+ SPECIALTY STORES 14 FASHION BOUTIQUES HOTEL EAGLE FARM MARKETS Green Space & Parks SPECIALTY STORES Hercules Street Park (Hamilton Recreational Reserve) Hamilton Park Commercial & Employment KSD Commercial Building URBIS MARKET OUTLOOK 3

4 INFRASTRUCTURE & EDUCATION Hamilton will benefit from over $18.8 billion in existing and future infrastructure KEY INFRASTRUCTURE 1 S COMMERCIAL EXPANSION 90,000 SQM ONGOING Hamilton is developing into a prime commercial location due to significant new office development within the Northshore Urban Development Area. Hamilton will deliver over 90,000sqm of new office space over the next five years, transforming the area into a self-sustained suburb with people having the option to work and live in the same location. In addition, Hamilton is also within proximity to the emerging Northern fringe commercial precinct, which includes Fortitude Valley, Bowen Hills and Newstead. 2 3 AUSTRALIA TRADE COAST $ BILLION ONGOING The Australia TradeCoast (ATC), which incorporates the Port of Brisbane, Brisbane Airport and surrounding industrial areas is the largest and fastest-growing industry and commercial precinct in Australia. Some 8,000 hectares of the ATC is dedicated to employable businesses and continues to attract significant infrastructure investment in hotels, offices, mixed industry and business parks. GATEWAY MOTORWAY $2 BILLION COMPLETE Connectivity from Hamilton to the Port of Brisbane has been improved by the completion of the Gateway Upgrade project, which included the duplication of the Gateway Bridge and the upgrade of 24km of the Gateway Motorway network. 4 KINGSFORD SMITH DRIVE UPGRADE $90 MILLION UNDERWAY The early stages of construction has commenced on the Kingsford Smith Drive Upgrade with the aim of increasing capacity from four to six lanes and reducing commute time between Hamilton and Brisbane CBD. 5 CITYCAT TERMINAL $5 MILLION COMPLETE Hamilton is serviced by two CityCat Terminals; Bretts Wharf and the Northshore Hamilton Terminal located near the Riverside Café. The new opening of the second Hamilton CityCat terminal in late 2011 offers full and express services from Hamilton to the Brisbane CBD and the University of Queensland. TRANSAPEX MASTER PLAN $10 BILLION The suburb of Hamilton is close to a number of entry and exit points within the TransApex road network, a multibillion dollar tunnel project which reduces travel times to the CBD, the Airport and south of the Brisbane River. The project is the biggest urban road network infrastructure development in EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS PRIMARY & SECONDARY SCHOOLS 1 CLAYFIELD COLLEGE 2 ST MARGARET S ANGLICAN GIRLS SCHOOL 3 ASCOT STATE SCHOOL 4 EAGLE JUNCTION STATE SCHOOL 5 STATE SCHOOL ST RITA S COLLEGE 7 AVIATION STATE HIGH SCHOOL 8 ST AGATHA S CATHOLIC SCHOOL 9 HENDRA STATE SCHOOL TERTIARY INSTITUTIONS 10 TAFE QUEENSLAND SKILLSTECH 11 AVIATION AUSTRALIA Australia. The TransApex system includes the Inner City Bypass, the Clem 7 Tunnel, the Go Between Bridge, Legacy Way and Airport Link. All components are complete except for Legacy Way, which is due for completion in The ultimate objective of the TransApex system is that all components intertwine to create a highly sophisticated road system. CLEM7 TUNNEL $3 BILLION The Clem7 tunnel motorway links major Brisbane roads including the Pacific Motorway, Ipswich Road, Inner City Bypass and Airportlink. The Clem7 bypasses 24 existing traffic lights, saving more than 15 minutes of travel time and provides an uninterrupted route across the Brisbane River. B D C 4 URBIS MARKET OUTLOOK

5 Nearly 145,000 new jobs in proximity to Hamilton are forecast by 2031 EMPLOYMENT AIRPORTLINK M7 $4.8 BILLION Airportlink is Australia s largest privately funded infrastructure project. It was built to relieve congestion in Brisbane s northern suburbs and improve public transport. The project provides connectivity to the Clem7 Tunnel, the Inner City Bypass, northern arterials and the International and Domestic Airports. INNER CITY BYPASS $220 MILLION The 4.5 km bypass provides an express connection between the northern suburbs and Brisbane CBD. Hamilton residents can directly benefit from the Bypass by driving through via Kingsford Smith Drive. Hamilton is ideally positioned to benefit from the employment growth in the Brisbane CBD, the Australia TradeCoast (ATC), and the emerging northern fringe precinct (comprising Fortitude Valley, Bowen Hills and Newstead). These precincts are home to leading national and multinational firms, with the Brisbane CBD the primary financial, government, legal and education centre in Queensland. Growth in the commercial market within the Brisbane CBD, together with the current and proposed new office development within the northern fringe commercial precinct and Hamilton precinct, will significantly boost the local white collar employment. Estimates generated by the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) forecast that employment along the corridor surrounding Hamilton, stretching from the CBD in the south to the ATC in the north, will surge by over 144,000 new jobs by This data was issued by NIEIR prior to the approval of the Northshore Hamilton Master Plan. Given the 15,000 jobs the Master Plan is forecast to create, the employment growth in Hamilton will likely be much higher than projected. This will provide a strong catalyst for growth in the residential market MIN F 2 4 MIN A FORECAST EMPLOYMENT SURROUNDINGS A BOWEN HILLS D E 2011 CURRENT / 12, FORECAST / 14,799 TOTAL NEW JOBS / 2, CURRENT / 9, FORECAST / 22,211 TOTAL NEW JOBS / 12,04 BRISBANE CBD B NEWSTEAD E 2011 CURRENT / 15, FORECAST / 222,178 TOTAL NEW JOBS / 5, CURRENT /, FORECAST / 7,287 TOTAL NEW JOBS / 1,234 FORTITUDE VALLEY C AUSTRALIAN TRADE COAST F 2011 CURRENT / 20, FORECAST / 32,32 TOTAL NEW JOBS / 11, CURRENT / 0, FORECAST / 110,000 TOTAL NEW JOBS / 50,000 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 2011 CURRENT / 24, FORECAST / 408,837 TOTAL NEW JOBS / 144,022 Hamilton Surroundings includes the suburbs of Hamilton, Albion and Ascot Australia Trade Coast includes Brisbane Airport and Port of Brisbane URBIS MARKET OUTLOOK 5

6 RESIDENTIAL MARKET BRISBANE APARTMENT INSIGHTS OFF-THE-PLAN SALES Urbis provide an independent survey and analysis on the sale of new apartments within Brisbane s Inner City. The following results have been produced from the September 2014 Brisbane Apartment Insights report. INNER BRISBANE APARTMENT INSIGHTS Prepared by Urbis; Source: Urbis 1,401 SALES OVER THE 3RD QTR 2014 $555,24 WEIGHTED AVERAGE SALE PRICE 3RD QTR INCREASE IN SALES FROM 2ND QTR 2014 NORTHSHORE APARTMENT INSIGHTS 101 SALES OVER THE 3RD QTR 2014 $53,218 WEIGHTED AVERAGE SALE PRICE 3RD QTR 2014 $73,055 INCREASE IN WEIGHTED AVERAGE SALE PRICE FROM 2ND QTR 2014 CAPITAL CITIES APARTMENT COMPARISON SEPTEMBER 2014 MELBOURNE SYDNEY BRISBANE MEDIAN SALE PRICE SEPT $450,000 $575,000 $420,000 AVERAGE ANNUAL 10 YEAR GROWTH 5.0% 4.4% 3.8% MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT SEPT $35 $490 $410 INDICATIVE GROSS RENTAL YIELD SEPT % 4.5% 5.1% An analysis of major capital cities indicates the relative affordability offered by the Brisbane apartment market. APARTMENT MARKET The median sale price for apartments within the Hamilton Catchment (comprised of Hamilton and Ascot) over the September quarter 2014 was recorded at $44,450. This represents a premium of $44,450 over the Brisbane LGA apartment median price of $420,000. Hamilton apartments have shown largely uninterrupted price growth since the early 1990s, with the median sale price averaging. per cent per annum over the last two decades. This growth rate is consistent with other urban regeneration precincts within Inner Brisbane, which have registered average growth rates of between and 9 per cent per annum over the same period. APARTMENT SALES CYCLE SEPTEMBER 2014 NUMBER OF TRANSACTIONS Hamilton s median apartment sale price is $44,450 higher than the Brisbane LGA Spurred on by the completion of a number of new apartment projects, the Hamilton Catchment has registered an average of over 150 settled transactions per year between 2010 and This steady level of sales activity is characterised by the continued regeneration of the precinct and typifies a pent-up demand for apartment living, driven by those who want a low-maintenance lifestyle in a quality suburb. Hamilton is undergoing a demographic shift towards a younger population who prefer affordable apartment living over traditional housing. Simultaneously, ongoing urban renewal within Hamilton has seen the addition of local jobs and lifestyle choices. This investment is expected to continue to drive the apartment demand within Hamilton. TRANSACTIONS MEDIAN SALE PRICE SEP-84 SEP-85 SEP-8 SEP-87 SEP-88 SEP-89 SEP-90 SEP-91 SEP-92 SEP-93 SEP-94 SEP-95 SEP-9 SEP-97 SEP-98 SEP-99 SEP-00 SEP-01 SEP-02 SEP-03 SEP-04 SEP-05 SEP-0 SEP-07 SEP-08 SEP-09 SEP-10 SEP-11 SEP-12 SEP-13 SEP-14 PERIOD (HALF YEARLY) $00,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 MEDIAN SALE PRICE Prepared by Urbis; Source: RPData Prepared by Urbis; Source: RPData URBIS MARKET OUTLOOK

7 RENTAL ANALYSIS RENTAL GROWTH BETWEEN 2009 AND 2014 Hamilton Postcode 4007 ONE TWO THREE Prepared by Urbis; Source: RTA OVER INNER NORTH ONE TWO THREE INNER NORTH INNER NORTH INNER NORTH Prepared by Urbis; Source: RTA $270 $290 $350 $420 $395 $30 $420 $420 $395 NEW APARTMENT PRODUCT VS. EXISTING Hamilton Postcode 4007 $450 $520 $ % 12.9% 23.8% 44.8% 9.7% 15.% Hamilton has become a rental market driven by significant urban renewal of commercial and lifestyle amenity. The catchment facilitates the needs, and wants of both the professional Gen Y demographic and the wealthy owneroccupier demographic. These are increasingly becoming the most prominent demographics within the region encapsulated in the desire for inner city living, low maintenance product, proximity to work and high walkability to a wide range of lifestyle and entertainment offerings. Hamilton apartments have continued to attract premium rental prices Based on Rental Tenancy Authority (RTA) data, the postcode 4007 (Hamilton and Ascot) has been used for the rental assessment. The postcode has registered an annual rental growth of 11. per cent per annum,.0 per cent per annum, and 5.7 per cent per annum for one, two, and three-bedroom apartments respectively in the ten-year period to September On the market rental data indicates that new and near-new apartment product in the Hamilton catchment is attracting a premium over existing stock. New and near-new twobedroom apartments are renting for approximately $232 per week more than existing stock, whilst new and nearnew three-bedroom apartments are achieving a premium of approximately $801 per week. These premiums have been realised due to a large inflow of quality apartment product in recent years, an influx of wealthy owner-occupiers and professional Gen Y residents, and the premium waterfront living that is now available in Hamilton due to its regeneration. ONE TWO EXISTING NEW EXISTING NEW $420 $428 $395 $27 58.% The culmination of the strong shift towards a wealthier demographic and premium waterfront lifestyle will typically dictate a higher quality tenant within the precinct. This is expected to drive a strong rental market and, subsequently, strong rental growth and premiums within the precinct. THREE EXISTING $ % NEW $1,321 Prepared by Urbis; Source: RTA; realestate.com.au URBIS MARKET OUTLOOK 7

8 Brisbane Level 7, 123 Albert St Brisbane QLD This publication is prepared on the instruction of Hercules Northshore and is not suitable for use other than by the party to whom it is addressed. As the publication involves projections and assumptions it can be affected by a number of unforeseen variables. The forecasts and assumptions are a prediction and whilst Urbis has made every effort to ensure that the forecasts and assumptions are based on reasonable information, they may be affected by assumptions that do not necessarily eventuate or by know or unknown risks and uncertainties. It should be noted that past performance is not necessarily a reliable indication of future performance. The information in the publication does not represent financial advice and should not be regarded as such. It has been prepared without taking into account your financial situation or investment objectives. You should consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your current financial situation or needs. Urbis accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. The information is subject to change without notice and Urbis is under no obligation to update the information or correct any assumptions which may change over time. This study has been prepared for the sole use of Hercules Northshore and is not to be relied upon by any third party without specific approval from Urbis. This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 198, no part of it may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrievals system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquires should be addressed to the publishers. / BPE0xxx

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