Briefing Sydney CBD Office August 2018

Transcription

1 Savills Research New South Wales Briefing Sydney CBD Office Highlights Prime yields tightened further in the year to March 2018 as demand for prime assets continued unabated from both local and overseas investors; Rental and capital growth continued with signs of upwards growth until the next development cycle nears completion in 2019/20; Net effective A-Grade rents increased by 19.6% in the year to March 2018; Net supply is expected to be negative until 2019, which should lead to continued growth in effective rents and capital values; Given current yield spreads to bond rates, the market s rental outlook bodes well for investment performance in coming years. A Grade Averages Latest Yr Change Outlook Rental N.F. ($/sq m) 1, % Incentives bps Rental N.E ($/sq m) % Yield Market (%) bps IRR (%) bps Capital Values ($/sq m) 19, % Demand & Supply Latest PCP* Vacancy (%) Net Absorb. ( 000 sq m) Stock U/C ( 000 sq m) % of market % committed *PCP = Previous Corresponding Period

2 Report Contents Vacancy & Availability 3 Leasing Activity & Demand 4 Sales Activity 6 Supply 8 Development Map 9 Rents & Outlook 10 Key Indicators 12 Key Contacts 12 Associate Director Capital Strategy & Research Shrabastee Mallik smallik@savills.com.au For our latest national reports, visit savills.com.au/research To join Savills Research mailing list, please research@savills.com.au Executive Summary Sydney CBD s office market continues to outperform across key indicators, with the vacancy rate falling to 4.6% in June 2018, the lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, after continued falls for the last 8 quarters. The strength of the market is further highlighted by healthy demand for office space in the CBD in spite of rents rising to record high levels. We are seeing a large number of tech and IT firms centralising and organically growing in the CBD after decentralisations due to cost pressures during the 2008 to 2010 period. While net absorption has been low, this is largely as a result of reduced available space in this category, due to the absorption associated with government projects, redevelopment and change-of-use projects currently underway. Total net absorption was recorded at 9,489 square metres for the 12 month period to June Positive net absorption in Prime grade stock (44,931 square metres) was largely offset by withdrawals of secondary stock for refurbishments and conversions for alternate use. Savills Research expect a continuation of strong local investment demand despite tightening credit conditions and rising cost of debt. Interest from offshore superannuation funds is likely to increase in the short to medium term, as investors are increasingly interested in investing in safe haven areas, such as Australia, which ranks 2nd highest globally in terms of transparency and is supported by strong population growth. We are already seeing evidence of superannuation funds increasingly re-weighting their holdings to Australian commercial property in the search for secure income streams. PCA Summary Table Sydney CBD (year to Jun-18) Premium A Grade Prime Secondary Total AUS CBD Total Stock ( 000) 1, , , , , ,907.5 Total Vacancy ( 000) ,640.7 Vacancy (%) 5.1 (7.2) 4.6 (7.1) 4.8 (7.2) 4.4 (7.3) 4.6 (7.3) 9.2 (9.2) Net Absorption ( 000) 83.6 (45.2) (17.7) 44.9 (62.9) (-35.2) 9.5 (27.8) (170.4) Net Absorption (%)* 8.2 (5.4) -2.2 (1.1) 1.6 (2.5) -1.8 (-1.7) 0.2 (0.6) 0.9 (1.1) Net Additions ( 000) 38.0 (48.2) (21.1) 16.4 (69.3) (-38.5) (30.8) (283.0) Stock Additions ( 000) Stock Withdrawals ( 000) Net Additions (%) 3.4 (5.5) -1.2 (1.2) 0.5 (2.7) -3.7 (-1.7) -1.2 (0.6) -0.5 (1.7) Source: PCA / Savills Research (10yr Averages shown in brackets);*as a percentage of occupied stock savills.com.au/research 2

3 Vacancy The vacancy rate for Sydney CBD fell to 4.6% in June 2018 from 6.0% a year prior and well below the 10 year average of 7.2%. Notably, this was the lowest it has been since it hit 4.3% in June All precincts in the Sydney CBD recorded falls in their vacancy rates in June 2018 from the year prior, except for the City Core precinct, where the vacancy rate rose to 6.9% from 3.5% as a result of IAG relocating out of 388 George Street to 201 Sussex Street. The Rocks / Walsh Bay precinct saw the greatest fall in the vacancy rate, falling to 9.2% in June 2018 from 27.6% in June Looking forward, Savills Research anticipates the vacancy rate for the Sydney CBD to continue to fall, nearing historic lows until at least 2019/20. With a pre-commitment rate just under 60%, this upcoming supply will help to alleviate pressures on the Sydney CBD market and absorb pent-up demand. Historic Vacancy Rate Full Floor Availability by Period 12% Prime Secondary Total 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Premium (sq m) A Grade (sq m) In 6 Mths 6-12 Mths 1-2 Yrs > 2 Years Source: PCA / Savills Research Full Floor Availability The Savills Prime Full Floor Availability Report assesses the state of the leasing market in a different manner to standard vacancy surveys. The report shows each Premium and A Grade building in the city on a floor-by-floor basis highlighting which floors are available for lease, now and in the near future, including those under construction and refurbishment. By Grade By Precinct Total Premium A Grade Core Midtown Western Southern W. Bay/ Rocks Total Prime Floors (No) 2, ,553 1, Total Prime NLA (sq m) 3,322,711 1,325,127 1,997,584 1,406, , , , ,733 Prime Floors Available (No) Prime Full Floor Avail. (sq m) 344, , , ,156 46,257 43,935 13,865 11,203 Prime Full Floor Avail. (%) Max Contiguous Floors (No) Max Contiguous Area (sq m) 22,281 9,500 22,281 46,267 18,053 18,380 11,271 4,229 savills.com.au/research 3

4 Leasing Activity & Demand In the 12 months to June 2018 Savills identified 157,015 square metres of leasing activity in Sydney CBD over 1,000 square metres. This is down 46% on the 12 months prior and 42% below the 10 year average, with new tenant options being limited by the low supply environment. The majority of these leases (approximately 36% of total space leased) occurred in the Core precinct, followed by the Western Corridor precinct (approximately 32% of total space leased). A lack of contiguous space in the Sydney CBD meant that leases for space less than 5,000 square metres (65.2% of total leases) accounted for a greater proportion of total leasing activity than in any other financial year in the recent past. The Property & Business Services sector was the most dominant sector over FY-18, comprising 45% of major leasing activity tracked, with the traditionally dominant Finance & Insurance sector less active in the current financial year. The Property & Business Services sector also provided one of the largest leasing transaction for FY-18, being the 7,258 square metre pre-commitment at 60 Martin Place by Norton Rose Fullbright. Leases for the sector were boosted significantly by co-working space giant WeWork increasing their footprint across Sydney CBD. With plans to acquire additional space across the CBD, it is clear that the notion of co-working is becoming more popular, particularly for small businesses. Based on leasing evidence on the ground, there has been a significant increase in demand for space in the CBD from the IT & Technology sector. We have seen a large number of tech and IT firms centralising and organically growing in the CBD after decentralisations due to cost pressures during the 2008 to 2010 period. Demand from smaller occupiers was still evident, with a spike in leasing activity in the sub-1,000sqm category, driven largely by the opportunity and capital cost savings in speculatively fitted tenancies. While net absorption has been low, this is largely as a result of reduced available space in this category, due to the absorption associated with government projects, redevelopment and change-of-use projects currently underway. Total net absorption was recorded at 9,489 square metres for the 12 month period to June Positive net absorption in Prime grade stock (44,931 square metres) was largely offset by withdrawals of secondary stock for refurbishments and conversions for alternate use. Leasing Activity by Precinct (> 1,000 square metres) 600,000 Core Midtown Southern Walsh Bay - The Rocks Western Corridor 500, , , , ,000 - Leasing Activity by Tenant Type (> 1,000 square metres) Prop & Bus Serv % Govt & Community % IT & Comm % Fin & Ins % W'Sale & Retail - 5.5% Mining - 3.9% Undisclosed - 1.6% Net Absorption vs. Growth in Professional Job Ads Annual Net Abs. - SYD CBD 200,000 Prof. Job Ads - NSW 150, ,000 50,000 - (50,000) (100,000) (150,000) (200,000) Source: DOE / Savills Research 30% 20% 10% 0% (10%) (20%) (30%) (40%) (50%) savills.com.au/research 4

5 After muted growth in professional job advertisements in NSW over 2017, we have seen a rebound in the first 6 months of Professional job advertisements grew by 8.1% over the year to June 2018, on the back of renewed strength in Corporate Australia, which saw record growth in company profits, providing the impetus for companies to increase their labour requirements. Demand drivers for Sydney CBD are positive, with business sentiment up for the office sector. According to the latest NAB Commercial Property Index, overall sentiment for the sector was well above its long term average. The Sydney CBD office market is expected to lead the way for rental and capital value growth nationally over the next months. Professional Job Advertisement Growth by State (Jun-18) WA 18.3% SA 16.1% TAS 14.9% VIC 13.5% QLD 12.1% AUS 11.2% NSW 8.1% ACT 6.5% NT 5.7% Source: DOE / Savills Research Recent Notable Leases (by Area Leased) Tenant Property Date NLA (sq m) Type Rent Term 60 Martin Pl, Sydney Norton Rose Fullbright Mar-18 7,258 Precommit 1,130 (Net) Hickson Rd, Millers Point WPP AUNZ Aug-17 6,463 Direct 751 (Gross) Clarence St, Sydney Mills Oakley Lawyers Jun-18 5,673 Precommit n.a Elizabeth St, Sydney Department of Veteran Affairs Nov-17 5,335 Direct 595 (Gross) George St, Sydney Australian Institute of Company Mar-18 4,750 Direct 995 (Net) n.a. 151 Clarence St, Sydney Pfizer Australia Dec-17 4,460 Direct 1,065 (Net) Castlereagh St, Sydney WeWork Mar-18 4,443 Direct 1,410 (Gross) Pitt St, Sydney hipages Group Sep-17 3,788 Direct 913 (Gross) 6 10 Shelley St, Sydney IRESS Market Technology Sep-17 3,433 Direct 654 (Net) George St, Sydney Jardine Lloyd Thompson Sep-17 3,149 Direct 1,215 (n.a) Sussex St, Sydney Adobe Systems Sep-17 3,079 Direct 1,010 (Net) Sussex St, Sydney Dimension Data Sep-17 2,940 Direct 920 (Net) Phillip St, Sydney Treasury Corp (TCorp) Sep-17 2,888 Direct 910 (Net) Barangaroo Ave, Sydney Hannover Life Re Mar-18 2,345 Direct 1,250 (Net) George St, Sydney Colgate-Palmolive Oct-17 2,212 Direct 1,004 (Gross) George St, Sydney APT Management Services Sep-17 2,015 Direct 925 (Gross) George St, Sydney Universal Pictures International Jan-18 2,000 Direct 1,000 (Gross) George St, Sydney APA Group Sep-17 2,000 Direct 925 (Gross) 7 ; savills.com.au/research 5

6 Sales Activity Savills Research recorded approximately $6.83 billion of office sales (> $5 million) in the 12 months to June 2018 in Sydney CBD, which was the highest on record. This is over double the total transactions recorded in the previous financial year and circa double the 10 year average ($3.18 billion). During the current period, 30 properties were sold, up on the 22 sold in FY-17. We are seeing an increase in the number of assets worth over $100 million being transacted, with assets in the price range accounting for over 90% of all office sales in the current financial year, as illustrated in the adjoining chart. Investor appetite for prime grade assets remained strong, with approximately 65% of all assets transacted in FY- 18 Premium or A Grade buildings. However, recent sales evidence is suggestive of investors more likely to consider secondary grade stock for purchase, as prime quality assets available for sale become more rare. Investors are recognising the smaller differences across grades in Sydney CBD, with secondary grade assets increasingly providing greater income growth potential. Notably, the sale of 10 Spring Street (Swire House) at an initial yield of 3.91% and 55 Clarence Street at a reported yield of 3.60% is representative of growing investor interest in secondary grade assets in prime locations in the CBD. In FY-18, there was a significant fall in foreign investors acquiring office assets in Sydney CBD. This was primarily as a result of tightening yields driving foreign investors to fringe markets in search of more favourable yield differentials. In addition, this there was a clear turnaround in foreign investor preference for prime grade assets, with a notable increase in secondary grade assets transacted by foreign investors. Domestic Funds and Trusts accounted for 66.1% of all office assets transacted in Sydney CBD over the 12 months to June Notably, ISPT s purchase of a 50% stake in 275 Kent Street in June 2018 at an initial yield of 4.50% pushed capital values up for the CBD market. Market valuation yields in Sydney CBD, as at June 2018, are typically estimated to range from 4.60% to 5.05% for Prime grade buildings and 4.65% and 5.25% for Secondary grade buildings, with average A Grade yields firming 35 basis points over FY-18 to 4.90%. Given recent evidence and expectations for current sales campaigns however, this figure is expected to continue tightening over the next 12 months.. Sales Activity by Price (> $5 million) $8,000m $7,000m $6,000m $5,000m $4,000m $3,000m $2,000m $1,000m Purchasers 12% 10yr Bond Rate Average Sydney CBD (Grade A Yield) Average Sydney CBD (Grade A IRR) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% % $0m Vendors $5m - $50m $50m - $100m >$100m Vendor & Purchaser Type (> $5 million) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fund Trust Developer Owner Occupier Government Syndicate Foreign Investor Private Investor Other Yield Spread to Bond & IRR Sydney CBD savills.com.au/research 6

7 Savills Research expect a continuation of strong local investment demand despite tightening credit conditions and rising cost of debt. Interest from offshore superannuation funds is likely to increase in the short to medium term, as investors are increasingly interested in investing in safe haven areas, such as Australia, which ranks 2nd highest globally in terms of transparency and is supported by strong population growth. We are already seeing evidence of superannuation funds increasingly re-weighting their holdings to Australian commercial property in the search for secure income streams. Whilst it appears that the yield compression cycle in Sydney s CBD is nearing a floor, Savills Research believe that there is still further room for compression given the current spread to long term government bond rates and positive tenancy outlook. However, whether predictions of an appreciating US dollar are realised will clearly affect foreign investor ability to as easily invest in Australian commercial property, particularly as 10 year US bond yields surpass those in Australia for the first time in 25 years. Capital Value ( $/sq m) vs. Market Yield 25,000 Capital Value - SYD CBD Market Yield (RHS) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, % 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% Recent Notable Sales (by Sale Price) Property Price ($m) Date NLA Yield Type $/sq m 275 Kent St, Sydney (50.0%) Jun-18 77, i 22, Elizabeth St, Sydney Jan-18 23, i 14, Spring St, Sydney Sep-17 13, i 19, Elizabeth St, Sydney May-18 16, e 16, Clarence St, Sydney Jun-18 14, r 17, Goulburn St, Sydney Aug-17 22, e 11, Pitt St, Sydney Dec-17 10, i 21,023 1 Castlereagh St, Sydney Nov-17 11, i 19,070 1 York St, Sydney Jan-18 18, e 11,109 9 Hunter St, Sydney Nov-17 15, e 12, Hunter St, Sydney Dec-17 9, i 19, Goulburn St, Sydney (50.0%) Mar-18 23, r 15, Pitt St, Sydney Oct-17 9, e 16, Goulburn St, Sydney Jul-17 19, e 8, Clarence St, Sydney Jun-18 12, r 12, Thomas St, Haymarket Apr-18 23, i 6, Barrack St, Sydney Dec-17 9, i 14, Sussex St, Sydney Dec-17 8, e 11, Elizabeth St, Sydney Jan-18 5, i 15,065 ; r = reported yield; e = equated market yield; i = initial yield; savills.com.au/research 7

8 Supply After a period of low supply, the Sydney CBD office market is entering a new phase of development completions will see just under 50,000 square metres of net supply hitting the market (with a pre-commitment rate of 41%), whilst in 2019, Savills Research expect approximately 45,000 square metres of net supply. In 2018, the Sydney CBD office market was subject to further withdrawals associated with refurbishments and redevelopments for alternate use projects. The withdrawal of the former DOE building (35-39 Bridge Street) for a hotel conversion saw nearly 14,000 square metres of space being withdrawn permanently. Looking further ahead, we anticipate net supply to build to a peak in 2021 as new Premium supply in the Core precinct becomes a key feature of the market. Beyond this, development focus will likely shift to the Southern precinct with the Central Station redevelopment, however detail on this project is not available at present as this development will be subject to significant pre-commitments. Net Supply by Year (square metres) 150, , ,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 - (25,000) (50,000) (75,000) (100,000) / PCA Historic Net Additions Savills Forecast 15yr Avg Development The table below summarises some of the major upcoming and planned development and refurbishment projects in the Sydney CBD. Building Address Dev Stage NLA Committed Exp. Comp Precinct Tenants Broadway UC 5,500 99% 2018 Southern University of Technology Sydney 275 George St DA 7,300 58% 2019 Core ARUP, Pfizer Barangaroo C1 DA 10, Walsh Bay 60 Martin Pl UC 40, % 2019 Core WeWork 1 Carrington St UC 7,700 44% 2020 Core Norton Rose, Fullbright, Banco 10 Carrington St UC 58,626 91% 2020 Core NAB Market St DA 10, Midtown NAB 44 Martin Pl DA 11, Core 50 Bridge St / Quay Quarter UC 83, Core 4-6 Bligh St DA 10,000 35% Core AMP George St DA 16, Core 1-6 Hickson Rd, Millers Point Mooted 51,000 16% Walsh Bay Poly Circular Quay Tower DA 55, Core 233 & 241 Castlereagh St DA 13, Midtown 33 Bligh St** UC 24, Core 55 Pitt St PS 45, Core 201 Sussex St (DPT4) EP 63, Western Sydney Metro - Martin Place Mooted 81, Core ; UC = Under Construction, DA = Development Approved, PS= Plans Submitted, EP = Early Planning; * Walsh Bay - The Rocks; ** Under Construction for Metro only savills.com.au/research 8

9 Development Map savills.com.au/research 9

10 Rents Rents in the Sydney CBD continued to record significant growth with average Grade A net face rents increasing by 12.6% in the year to June This rate of growth is by far the strongest of all CBD markets nationally. Growth was slightly more pronounced on an effective basis, increasing by 13.3% over the same period. Growth in Sydney CBD s secondary markets was significantly more pronounced, with average B Grade net face rents increasing by 21.9% over the year to June Given current market conditions and positive forward economic indicators, Savills Research anticipates a continuation of the tight conditions over the short to medium term as limited new supply additions until 2019, maintain upward pressure on rents. Net Effective Rents by Grade ($/sq m) 1,000 Premium Grade A Grade B Looking forward, asking rents for future developments suggest a re-casting of premium rates at the upper end, with asking rents and those achieved on future developments showing a strong uplift over existing premium assets. Net Face & Net Effective Rents as at Jun-18 ($/sq m) 1,175 Net Face Rent 1,200 Net Effective Rent 1,030 Net Incentive % - rhs 1, Premium Grade A Grade B 20.0 Outlook There is evidence of continued strength in the Sydney CBD market with growth in professional job advertisements at their highest level in 2 years. Data from the Department of Employment shows growth in job advertisements for white collar professionals is 8.1% over the year to June This points to ongoing demand for space in the CBD and its surrounds as occupiers increasingly recognise the lifestyle benefits the CBD offers and enquiries remain strong in spite of historically high rents and low incentives. Demand for office space in the CBD from co-working giants such as WeWork highlight this. Projection of vacancy rates below the 3% mark in the next 6 months are well deserved, with no relief in sight for tenants as landlords continue to hold the bulk of the power in the currently tight market. Whilst the completion of the next development cycle in 2019/20 would likely provide relief for tenants, in Sydney s tight market, this will more likely work to absorb pent-up demand, though we should see more normal rental and capital growth rates than we have seen over the last 2 years. Though rental and capital value growth will remain, it most probably will not be at the double digit growth rates that we have seen in the recent past, as the completion of the next development cycle provides much needed space to the market. Demand drivers for Sydney CBD are positive, with business sentiment up for the office sector. According to the latest NAB Commercial Property Index, overall sentiment for the sector was well above its long term average. The Sydney CBD office market is expected to lead the way for rental and capital value growth nationally over the next months. savills.com.au/research 10

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12 Sydney CBD Key Indicators (Q2-18) Premium A Grade B Grade Low High Low High Low High Rental - Gross Face ($/sq m) 1,210 1,560 1,135 1, ,145 Rental - Net Face ($/sq m) 1,000 1, , ,000 Incentive Level Gross (%) Rental - Net Effective ($/sq m) 765 1, Outgoings - Operating ($/sq m) Outgoings - Statutory ($/sq m) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Typical Lease Term (years) Yield - Market (% Net Face Rental) IRR (%) Cars Permanent Reserved ($/pcm) 990 1, , Cars Permanent ($/pcm) Office Capital Values ($/sq m) 22,000 29,000 18,000 21,000 13,500 20,000 NB: All rents equivalent to whole floor mid-rise Key State Contacts Research Shrabastee Mallik +61 (0) smallik@savills.com.au Office Leasing Rob Dickins +61 (0) rdickins@savills.com.au Valuations Andrew Pannifex +61 (0) apannifex@savills.com.au Capital Transactions Ian Hetherington +61 (0) ihetherington@savills.com.au Metro & Regional Sales Tom Tuxworth +61 (0) ttuxworth@savills.com.au Project Management Adele Eagleton +61 (0) aeagleton@savills.com.au Asset Management Howard Chapman +61 (0) hchapman@savills.com.au The Savills Research & Consultancy team has years of experience, and is supported by our extensive agency, property management and valuation professionals. For national-level consultancy or subscription requirements please contact: Capital Strategy & Research Chris Freeman +61 (0) cfreeman@savills.com.au Savills is a leading global property service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. Trusted since 1855, we have extensive experience across the Asia Pacific, with over 50 offices, and in Australia, we have over 800 staff focused on meeting all your property needs. This information is general information only and is subject to change without notice. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Savills will not be liable for any omissions or errors. Savills will not be liable, including for negligence, for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential losses or damages arising out of our in any way connected with use of any of this information. This information does not form part of or constitute an offer or contract. You should rely on your own enquiries about the accuracy of any information or materials. All images are only for illustrative purposes. This information must not be copied, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Savills. savills.com.au/research 12