Briefing Sydney CBD Office September 2018

Transcription

1 Savills Research New South Wales Briefing Sydney CBD Office Highlights Vacancy fell to 4.6% in June 2018 with an outlook to continue to fall until 2019/2020; Rental and capital growth continued with signs of upwards growth until the next development cycle nears completion in 2019/20; Net effective rents increased to $965/sqm in Premium grade buildings and $845/sqm in A grade; Increase investment activity from domestic 'funds' and 'trusts' was evident, accounting for 45% of transactions; Demand drivers for Sydney CBD are positive, with business sentiment up for the office sector. A Grade Averages Latest Yr Change Outlook Rental N.F. ($/sq m) 1, % Incentives bps Rental N.E ($/sq m) % Yield Market (%) bps IRR (%) bps Capital Values ($/sq m) 19, % Demand & Supply Latest PCP* Vacancy (%) Net Absorb. ( 000 sq m) Stock U/C ( 000 sq m) % of market % committed *PCP = Previous Corresponding Period

2 Report Contents Vacancy & Availability 3 Leasing Activity & Demand 4 Sales Activity 6 Supply 8 Development Map 9 Rents & Outlook 10 Key Indicators 12 Key Contacts 12 Shrabastee Mallik smallik@savills.com.au Head of Research For our latest national reports, visit savills.com.au/research To join Savills Research mailing list, please research@savills.com.au Executive Summary Sydney CBD s office market continues to outperform across key indicators, with the vacancy rate falling to 4.6% in June 2018, the lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, after continued falls for the last 8 quarters. The strength of the market is further highlighted by healthy demand for office space in the CBD in spite of rents rising to record high levels. We are seeing a large number of tech and IT firms centralising and organically growing in the CBD after decentralisations due to cost pressures during the 2008 to 2010 period. While net absorption has been low, this is largely as a result of reduced available space in this category, due to the absorption associated with government projects, redevelopment and change-of-use projects currently underway. Total net absorption was recorded at 9,489 square metres for the 12 month period to June Positive net absorption in Prime grade stock (44,931 square metres) was largely offset by withdrawals of secondary stock for refurbishments and conversions for alternate use. Average A Grade net face rents in Sydney s CBD grew 8.7% in the 12-month period to, while average A Grade capital values increased 6.8%, breaking the $20,000 per square metre mark for the first time. Whilst these growth rates are more muted than the double-digit growth rates that we have seen throughout the past two years, what is remarkable is that we are still seeing growth in rents on both a face and effective basis, in spite of relatively subdued economic conditions since 2016, pointing to the ongoing resilience of the Sydney CBD office market. With an economic turnaround now evident in Australia, and forward-looking indicators the strongest they have been in more than 18 months, it would be prudent to assume there is steam left in Sydney CBD s performance. The yield compression cycle continued in the Sydney CBD, with average A Grade market yields falling 40 basis points in the 12 months to. PCA Summary Table Sydney CBD (year to Sep-18) Premium A Grade Prime Secondary Total AUS CBD Total Stock ( 000) 1, , , , , ,907.5 Total Vacancy ( 000) ,640.7 Vacancy (%) 5.1 (7.2) 4.6 (7.1) 4.8 (7.2) 4.4 (7.3) 4.6 (7.3) 9.2 (9.2) Net Absorption ( 000) 83.6 (45.2) (17.7) 44.9 (62.9) (-35.2) 9.5 (27.8) (170.4) Net Absorption (%) * 8.2 (5.4) -2.2 (1.1) 1.6 (2.5) -1.8 (-1.7) 0.2 (0.6) 0.9 (1.1) Net Additions ( 000) 38.0 (48.2) (21.1) 16.4 (69.3) (-38.5) (30.8) (283.0) - Stock Additions ( 000) Stock Withdrawals ( 000) Net Additions (%) 3.4 (5.5) -1.2 (1.2) 0.5 (2.7) -3.7 (-1.7) -1.2 (0.6) -0.5 (1.7) Source: PCA / Savills Research (10yr Averages shown in brackets);*as a percentage of occupied stock savills.com.au/research 2

3 Vacancy The vacancy rate for Sydney CBD fell to 4.6% in June 2018 from 6.0% a year prior and well below the 10 year average of 7.2%. Notably, this was the lowest it has been since it hit 4.3% in June All precincts in the Sydney CBD recorded falls in their vacancy rates in June 2018 from the year prior, except for the City Core precinct, where the vacancy rate rose to 6.9% from 3.5% as a result of IAG relocating out of 388 George Street to 201 Sussex Street. The Rocks / Walsh Bay precinct saw the greatest fall in the vacancy rate, falling to 9.2% in June 2018 from 27.6% in June Looking forward, Savills Research anticipates the vacancy rate for the Sydney CBD to continue to fall, nearing historic lows until at least 2019/20. With a pre-commitment rate just under 60%, this upcoming supply will help to alleviate pressures on the Sydney CBD market and absorb pent-up demand. Historic Vacancy Rate 12% Prime Secondary Total 10% Availability by Period 120, ,000 Premium (sq m) A Grade (sq m) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 In 6 Mths 6-12 Mths 1-2 Yrs > 2 Years Source: PCA / Savills Research Full Floor Availability The Savills Prime Full Floor Availability Report assesses the state of the leasing market in a different manner to standard vacancy surveys. The report shows each Premium and A Grade building in the city on a floor-by-floor basis highlighting which floors are available for lease, now and in the near future, including those under construction and refurbishment. By Grade By Precinct Total Premium A Grade Core Midtown Western Southern W. Bay/ Rocks Total Prime Floors (No) 2, ,558 1, Total Prime NLA (sq m) 3,324,816 1,325,244 1,999,572 1,395, , , , ,882 Prime Floors Available (No) Prime Full Floor Avail. (sq m) 342, , , ,846 66,754 34,219 15,171 11,032 Prime Full Floor Avail. (%) Max Contiguous Floors (No) Max Contiguous Area (sq m) 20,497 9,500 20,497 46,267 20,497 18,380 11,271 4,229 savills.com.au/research 3

4 Leasing Activity & Demand In the 12 months to Savills identified 105,670 square metres of office leasing activity in Sydney CBD. This is significantly lower than the 12 months prior and 10 year average (down 53.4% and 50.6% respectively) which is largely attributed to limited tenants options due to low supply and limited available contiguous space, which has been driving tenants to consider options in Sydney s non-cbd and fringe office markets. The Core precinct saw the majority of these leases accounting for approximately 58% of total leasing activity, followed by the Western Corridor precinct (31%). The Sydney CBD saw only one lease greater than 10,000sqm, with the category accounting for only 8.2% of total activity, which was a pre-commitment by Allianz at 10 Carrington Street. This was down 88.7% from the year prior which emphasises a clear lack of contiguous space. The Property & Business Services sector continued to dominate, with 64.4% of the leasing activity (in the 12 months to ) coming from this industry. This sector provided one of the largest lease transactions in the year with WeWork committing to 10,000 square metres at Daramu House, 1 Sussex Street. The co-working giant continues to boost leases in this sector, increasing their footprint by approximately 20,000 square metres throughout the CBD in the 12 months to. Although anecdotal evidence is suggestive of increased enquiries from the IT & Technology sector in the current annual period, compared to the previous 12 month period, recorded leasing activity for the sector was down considerably as they failed to acquire space that met their requirements. While net absorption has been low, this is largely as a result of reduced available space in this category, due to the absorption associated with government projects, redevelopment and change-of-use projects currently underway. Total net absorption was recorded at 9,489 square metres for the 12 month period to June Positive net absorption in Prime grade stock (44,931 square metres) was largely offset by withdrawals of secondary stock for refurbishments and conversions for alternate use. Leasing Activity by Precinct (> 1,000 square metres) 600,000 Core Midtown Southern Walsh Bay - The Rocks Western Corridor 500, , , , ,000 - Leasing Activity by Tenant Type (> 1,000 square metres) Prop & Bus Serv % Fin & Ins % W'Sale & Retail - 6.6% Govt & Community - 5.2% Mining - 2.3% IT & Comm - 1.0% Undisclosed - 0.8% Net Absorption vs. Growth in Professional Job Ads 200,000 Annual Net Abs. - SYD CBD 40% 150,000 Prof. Job Ads - NSW 30% 100,000 20% 50,000 10% 0% - (10%) (50,000) (20%) (100,000) (30%) (150,000) (40%) (200,000) (50%) Source: DOE / Savills Research savills.com.au/research 4

5 Growth in professional job advertisements for NSW were at their highest levels since mid-2016, recorded at 9.9% in the year to August This suggests ongoing strength in leasing demand for Sydney s office markets. Tenant enquiries remain strong, in spite of record high rents and capital values across the CBD, and alternative options available in Sydney s fringe markets. Professional Job Advertisement Growth by State (Aug-18) ACT 6.5% NSW 9.9% QLD 11.3% According to the latest NAB Commercial Property Index, the office sentiment fell in all states apart from Victoria, though sentiment in NSW remained the strongest of all states nationally. Forecasts for economic metrics remain positive, suggestive of a supportive economic environment for the office markets in Sydney. AUS VIC SA 11.6% 12.7% 15.2% WA 18.0% Source: DOE / Savills Research Recent Notable Leases (by Area Leased) Tenant Property Date NLA (sq m) Type Rent Term 10 Carrington St, Sydney Allianz Jul-18 10,820 Precommit n.a 10 1 Sussex St, Sydney WeWork Jul-18 10,000 Precommit n.a n.a. 60 Martin Pl, Sydney HDY/NRF Aug-18 9,527 Precommit 1,250 (G) Phillip St, Sydney Deutsche Bank Sep-18 8,664 Renewal n.a George St, Sydney WeWork Mar-18 5,211 Direct 965 (N) Castlereagh St, Sydney WeWork Mar-18 4,443 Direct 1,250 (N) Martin Pl, Sydney Regus Aug-18 4,200 Precommit 1,250 (G) Clarence St, Sydney Built Sep-18 3,500 Precommit 1,115 (G) n.a. 220 George St, Sydney Poly Group Sep-18 2,500 Precommit 1,450 (G) 8 60 Martin Pl, Sydney Banco Chambers Aug-18 2,500 Precommit 1,400 (G) Barangaroo Ave, Sydney Hannover Life Re Mar-18 2,345 Direct 1,250 (G) George St, Sydney Colgate-Palmolive Oct-17 2,212 Direct 1,004 (G) George St, Sydney Universal Pictures International Jan-18 2,000 Direct 1,000 (G) George St, Sydney Alinta Energy Jan-18 1,916 Direct 1,285 (G) George St, Sydney Investa Dec-17 1,721 Direct 1,225 (G) 10 1 Macquarie Pl, Sydney Dimensional Fund Advisers Oct-17 1,593 Direct 1,563 (G) 5 55 Harrington St, Sydney Capital Markets CRC Apr-18 1,553 Direct 750 (G) 6 19 Martin Pl, Sydney Meridian Lawyers Aug-18 1,441 Sublease 900 (G) 4 T1, 100 Barangaroo Ave, Sydney Ferrier Hodgson Feb-18 1,400 Direct 1,316 (G) 7 savills.com.au/research 5

6 Sales Activity In the 12 months to, Savills Research recorded approximately $4.82 billion of office sales (> $5 million) in the Sydney CBD which was up from the 12 months prior ($4.34 billion) and the 10 year average ($2.95 billion). Notably, the majority of transactions have been for assets over $100 million in the past 12 months, accounting for approximately 86% of total office sales. Investor appetite for Premium and A Grade assets remained evident accounting for approximately 58% of transactions during this period. However, with only one Premium Grade transaction recorded in the 12 months to, (a 50% interest at 275 Kent Street purchased by ISPT for $860 millon at an initial yield of 4.50% in June 2018) it is clear that limited availability of these assets for sale are driving intense competition among investors. There was an increase in investment activity from domestic Funds and Trusts, jointly accounting for 45% of all purchasers in the 12 months to. A lack of Prime, freehold assets available for sale in the Sydney CBD in conjunction with record high capital values and record low yields, has meant that foreign investor activity has slowed from the highs seen at the start of the property boom. Over the same 12 month period, Foreign Investors accounted for 37% of all buyers in Sydney CBD. However, we are seeing foreign investors identifying the benefits of acquiring secondary grade assets in Sydney CBD that have redevelopment potential. Market valuation yields in Sydney CBD, as at September 2018, are typically estimated to range from 4.50% to 5.00% for Prime grade buildings and 4.50% and 5.25% for Secondary grade buildings. Average A Grade yields fell 40 basis points, whilst average B Grade yields fell 25 basis points over the 12 months to. Given recent evidence and expectations for current sales campaigns however, this figure is expected to continue tightening over the remainder of 2018 and through Sales Activity by Price (> $5 million) $8,000m $7,000m $6,000m $5,000m $4,000m $3,000m $2,000m $1,000m Purchasers 12% 10yr Bond Rate Average Sydney CBD (Grade A Yield) Average Sydney CBD (Grade A IRR) 10% 8% $0m Vendors $5m - $50m $50m - $100m >$100m Vendor & Purchaser Type (> $5 million) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fund Trust Developer Owner Occupier Government Syndicate Foreign Investor Private Investor Other Yield Spread to Bond & IRR Sydney CBD 6% 4% 2% % savills.com.au/research 6

7 Average A Grade capital values in Sydney CBD increased 6.8% over the year to, breaking the $20,000 per square metre mark for the first time. Growth in secondary grade capital values was more pronounced, with average B Grade capital values recorded at $16,800 per square metre, representing a growth rate of 17.5% over the same period. Anecdotal evidence is suggestive of a continuation of strong local and off-shore investment demand, in spite of record high capital values. This is particularly the case for 100% holdings and for assets with strong lease covenants or redevelopment potential. Capital Value ( $/sq m) vs. Market Yield 25,000 Market Yield (RHS) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, % 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% Recent Notable Sales (by Sale Price) Property Price ($m) Date NLA Yield Type $/sq m 275 Kent St, Sydney (50.0%) Jun-18 77, i 22, Elizabeth St, Sydney Dec-17 23, e 14,694 2 Market St, Sydney (50.0%) Mar-18 40,178 n.a n.a 14, Elizabeth St, Sydney May-18 16, e 16, Clarence St, Sydney Apr-18 14, r 17,043 1 Sussex St, Sydney Jul-18 10,000 n.a n.a 25, George St, Sydney Aug-18 7, r 32, Pitt St, Sydney Dec-17 10, i 21,023 1 Castlereagh St, Sydney Dec-17 11, i 19,069 1 York St, Sydney Jan-18 18, e 11,136 9 Hunter St, Sydney Nov-17 15, e 12, Hunter St, Sydney Dec-17 9, i 19, Goulburn St, Sydney (50.0%) Mar-18 23, e 15, Clarence St, Sydney Jun-18 12, e 12, Thomas St, Haymarket Apr-18 23, i 16, Barrack St, Sydney Dec-17 9, i 14, Sussex St, Sydney Dec-17 8, e 11, Elizabeth St, Sydney Jan-18 5, e 15,202 Piers 8/9 23 Hickson Rd, Sydney Jun-18 8, e 10, Pitt St, Sydney Aug-18 4, i 19,764 ; r = reported yield; e = equated market yield; i = initial yield; savills.com.au/research 7

8 Supply After a period of low supply, the Sydney CBD office market is entering a new phase of development completions will see just under 50,000 square metres of net supply hitting the market (with a pre-commitment rate of 41%), whilst in 2019, Savills Research expect approximately 45,000 square metres of net supply. In 2018, the Sydney CBD office market was subject to further withdrawals associated with refurbishments and redevelopments for alternate use projects. The withdrawal of the former DOE building (35-39 Bridge Street) for a hotel conversion saw nearly 14,000 square metres of space being withdrawn permanently. Looking further ahead, we anticipate net supply to build to a peak in 2021 as new Premium supply in the Core precinct becomes a key feature of the market. Beyond this, development focus will likely shift to the Southern precinct with the Central Station redevelopment, however detail on this project is not available at present as this development will be subject to significant pre-commitments. Net Supply by Year (square metres) Historic Net Additions 150,000 15yr Avg 100,000 50,000 - (50,000) (100,000) / PCA Savills Forecast Development The table below summarises some of the major upcoming and planned development and refurbishment projects in the Sydney CBD. Building Address Dev Stage NLA Exp. Comp Precinct Tenants Broadway UC 5, Southern University of Technology Sydney (UTS) 233 & 241 Castlereagh St DA 13, Midtown 3 60 Martin Pl UC 40, Core Norton Rose Fullbright, Banco Chambers, Regus Barangaroo C1 DA 10, Walsh Bay WeWork 10 Carrington St UC 58, Core NAB, Allianz 1 Carrington St UC 7, Core NAB 44 Martin Pl DA 11, Core Market St DA 10, Midtown 50 Bridge St / Quay Quarter Tower UC 83, Core AMP 275 George St DA 7, Core 33 Bligh St (Kindersley) DA 26, Core George St DA 16, Core Poly Circular Quay Tower, 182 George St DA 55, Core Darling Park Tower 4, 201 Sussex St EP 63, Western 4-6 Bligh St DA 10, Core 55 Pitt St EP 45, Core Hickson Rd, Millers Point Mooted 51, Walsh Bay - The Rocks Sydney Metro - Martin Pl Station, 39 Martin Pl & 60 Hunter St Mooted 81, Core Macquarie ; UC = Under Construction, DA = Development Approved, PS= Plans Submitted, EP = Early Planning savills.com.au/research 8

9 Savills Research Briefing Notes Sydney CBD Development Map savills.com.au/research 9

10 Rents Average A Grade net face rents in Sydney s CBD were recorded at $1,065 per square metre, growing 8.7% in the 12-month period to, whilst average B Grade net face rents grew a staggering 27.6% over the same period. On an effective basis, rental growth in secondary grade buildings was even more pronounced, with average B Grade net effective rents growing 32.1% as gross incentives fell a 75 basis points over the same period. Given current market conditions and positive forward economic indicators, Savills Research anticipates a continuation of the tight conditions over the short to medium term, until the upcoming development cycle, which should provide some relief to tenants. Net face rents are expected to increase in line with inflation after 2019 for a four-year period, with rising incentives pushing net effective rents down somewhat. Net Effective Rents by Grade ($/sq m) 1,200 Premium Grade A Grade B 1, Net Face & Net Effective Rents as at Sep-18 ($/sq m) Looking forward, asking rents for future developments suggest a re-casting of premium rates at the upper end, with asking rents and those achieved on future developments showing a strong uplift over existing premium assets. 1,200 1, , Net Face Rent Net Effective Rent Net Incentive % - rhs Premium Grade A Grade B 20.0 Outlook There is evidence of continued strength in the Sydney CBD market with growth in professional job advertisements at their highest level in 2 years. Data from the Department of Employment shows growth in job advertisements for white collar professionals is 8.1% over the year to June This points to ongoing demand for space in the CBD and its surrounds as occupiers increasingly recognise the lifestyle benefits the CBD offers and enquiries remain strong in spite of historically high rents and low incentives. Demand for office space in the CBD from co-working giants such as WeWork highlight this. Projection of vacancy rates below the 3% mark in the next 6 months are well deserved, with no relief in sight for tenants as landlords continue to hold the bulk of the power in the currently tight market. Whilst the completion of the next development cycle in 2019/20 would likely provide relief for tenants, in Sydney s tight market, this will more likely work to absorb pent-up demand, though we should see more normal rental and capital growth rates than we have seen over the last 2 years. Though rental and capital value growth will remain, it most probably will not be at the double digit growth rates that we have seen in the recent past, as the completion of the next development cycle provides much needed space to the market. Demand drivers for Sydney CBD are positive, with business sentiment up for the office sector. According to the latest NAB Commercial Property Index, overall sentiment for the sector was well above its long term average. The Sydney CBD office market is expected to lead the way for rental and capital value growth nationally over the next months. savills.com.au/research 10

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12 Sydney CBD Key Indicators (Q3-18) Premium A Grade B Grade Low High Low High Low High Rental - Gross Face ($/sq m) 1,265 1,665 1,160 1,330 1,000 1,150 Rental - Net Face ($/sq m) 1,050 1, , ,000 Incentive Level Gross (%) 18% 21% 15% 20% 15% 20% Rental - Net Effective ($/sq m) 800 1, Outgoings - Operating ($/sq m) Outgoings - Statutory ($/sq m) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Typical Lease Term Yield - Market (% Net Face Rental) IRR (%) Cars Permanent Reserved ($/pcm) 990 1, , Office Capital Values ($/sq m) 22,500 30,000 18,500 22,000 13,500 20,000 NB: All rents equivalent to whole floor mid-rise Key State Contacts Valuations Andrew Pannifex +61 (0) apannifex@savills.com.au Office Leasing Rob Dickins +61 (0) rdickins@savills.com.au Capital Transactions Ian Hetherington +61 (0) ihetherington@savills.com.au Metro & Regional Sales Tom Tuxworth +61 (0) ttuxworth@savills.com.au Project Management Adele Eagleton +61 (0) aeagleton@savills.com.au Asset Management Howard Chapman +61 (0) hchapman@savills.com.au The Savills Research & Consultancy team has years of experience, and is supported by our extensive agency, property management and valuation professionals. For national-level consultancy or subscription requirements please contact: Capital Strategy & Research Shrabastee Mallik +61 (0) smallik@savills.com.au Savills is a leading global property service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. Trusted since 1855, we have extensive experience across the Asia Pacific, with over 50 offices, and in Australia, we have over 800 staff focused on meeting all your property needs. This information is general information only and is subject to change without notice. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Savills will not be liable for any omissions or errors. Savills will not be liable, including for negligence, for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential losses or damages arising out of our in any way connected with use of any of this information. This information does not form part of or constitute an offer or contract. You should rely on your own enquiries about the accuracy of any information or materials. All images are only for illustrative purposes. This information must not be copied, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Savills. savills.com.au/research 12