Briefing Melbourne CBD Office April 2018

Transcription

1 Savills Research Victoria Briefing Melbourne CBD Office Highlights Victorian jobs ads have been positive for past five years and currently are at their highest level since May 2009; This growth in professional job advertisements is reflected in the net absorption and vacancy rate of Melbourne CBD, which are a national standout; As a result of tight vacancy and strong tenant demand, rental growth remained positive with the rise in face rents and a fall in incentives driving net effective rates to record high levels; Availability in prime full floors has been falling since August 2017, with the impending full-floor vacancy falling further over the next six month period; The weight of capital amidst a shortage of assets offered for sale has lifted capital values and tightened investment yields for both prime and secondary assets further. A Grade Averages Latest Yr Change Outlook Rental N.F ($/sq m) % Incentives bps Rental N.E ($/sq m) % Yield Market (%) bps IRR (%) bps Capital Values ($/sq m) 10, % Demand & Supply Latest PCP* Vacancy (%) Net Absorb. ( 000 sq m) Stock U/C ( 000 sq m) % of market % committed *PCP = Previous Corresponding Period

2 Report Contents Vacancy & Availability 3 Leasing Activity & Demand 4 Sales Activity 6 Supply & Development 8 Rents & Outlook 9 Key Indicators 10 Contacts 10 Associate Director Research Monica Mondkar mmondkar@savills.com.au For our latest national reports, visit savills.com.au/research To join Savills Research mailing list, please research@savills.com.au Executive Summary The Melbourne CBD office market has been going from strength to strength on the back of the strongest economic indicators in the country, while forward indicators point to continued outperformance and have provided the impetus for business expansions and accommodation upgrades. Melbourne CBD showed the strongest net absorption of any CBD over 2017, with net absorption at 1.7% of the occupied stock, totalling almost half of the national CBD absorption, and represents Melbourne s 16th consecutive quarter of positive take-up. With the total vacancy rate (4.6%) now equal to Sydney CBD and lowest nationally. This led to a decline in vacancy levels across both prime (4%) and secondary grades (5.8%). Demand from the Education sector grew, as Melbourne s status as the most liveable city in Australia and relative affordability (compared to Sydney), continued to be a drawing card for international students. Besides the educational institutes, the co-working sector has been expanding and as a result competing with the government sector occupiers looking to expand or upgrade their existing floor space. Education and Co-working sector expansions remained a feature of the market over In the past 12 months 27,700 square metres of total space was added in the CBD, two-third of which was prime stock. With 38,100 square metres of stock withdrawn for refurbishment or redevelopment over the same period, displaced tenants competing for limited options particularly in the prime market, drove incentive levels down by 100 basis points over the year to March Savills Research anticipates a further decline in available office stock over the next six months resulting from strong demand coupled with a shortage of upcoming supply, putting further downward pressure on the vacancy rate. While the supply pipeline remains below that of the 15 year average for the next 2 years, nearly 307,000 square metres is forecast to hit the market in 2020, which will help meet tenant requirements. PCA Summary Table Melbourne CBD (year to Dec-17) Premium A Grade Prime Secondary Total AUS CBD Total Stock ( 000) , , , , ,936.8 Total Vacancy ( 000) ,763.3 Vacancy (%) 5.9 (6.4) 3.3 (5.6) 4.0 (5.8) 5.8 (7.9) 4.6 (6.6) 9.8 (8.9) Net Absorption ( 000) 17.8 (11.9) 64.1 (74.2) 81.8 (86.1) -7.0 (-15.3) 74.8 (70.8) (171.8) Net Absorption (%) * 2.5 (1.8) 3.1 (4.3) 2.9 (3.6) -0.5 (-1.0) 1.8 (1.8) 0.9 (1.1) Net Additions ( 000) 12.9 (15.2) -6.7 (75.7) 6.2 (90.9) (-15.2) (75.7) (303.2) - Stock Additions ( 000) Stock Withdrawals ( 000) Net Additions (%) 1.7 (2.3) -0.3 (4.2) 0.2 (3.7) -1.1 (-0.9) -0.2 (1.9) -0.3 (1.9) Source: PCA / Savills Research (10yr Averages shown in brackets); *As a percentage of occupied stock savills.com.au/research 2

3 Vacancy Strong take-up combined with a considerable amount of stock withdrawals in the 12 months to December 2017, led to a decline in vacancy levels across prime and secondary markets. The total vacancy rate of 4.6% recorded in the year to December 2017, was down from 6.6% a year ago. Tenant migration in pursuit of flight to quality, either for building quality or location remains the key driver for tightening of the prime office space in the CBD market. Ongoing withdrawals of secondary office space drove secondary grade vacancies further down in 2017 to 5.8%. Savills Research anticipates further falls in the vacancy rate over the next 12 months as a result of strong demand drivers coupled with a limited upcoming supply. Historic Vacancy Rate Full Floor Availability by Period 14% Prime Secondary Total 120 Premium A Grade 12% 10% 8% % 60 4% 2% 0% In 6 Mths 6-12 Mths 1-2 Yrs > 2 Years Source: PCA / Savills Research Full Floor Availability The Savills Prime Full Floor Availability Report assesses the state of the leasing market in a different manner to standard vacancy surveys. The report shows each Premium and A Grade building in the city on a floor-by-floor basis highlighting which floors are available for lease, now and in the near future, including those under construction and refurbishment. The total number of available prime full floors sit at 216 prime grade floors in March 2018, falling down up from 222 full floors 12 months ago, availability in full floors was lowest figure since August 2017 of 201 full floor options. There was an upward trend of available options due to future tenant relocations to pre-committed developments within the market recently. However these options are now on a decline, coinciding with tightening of vacancy rates in the CBD market. Impending prime full floor availability between March and August 2018 sits tight with only 97 full floors available for lease, falling from 121 full floors available in the previous period 12 month period. By Grade By Precinct Total Premium A Grade North West North East South West South East Total Prime Floors (No) 1, , Total Prime NLA (sq m) 2,118, ,080 1,546, , , , ,887 Prime Floors Available (No) Prime Full Floor Avail. (sq m) 284,086 52, ,906 40,390 18, ,080 56,887 Prime Full Floor Avail. (%) Max Contiguous Floors (No) Max Contiguous Area (sq m) 35,095 7,542 35,095 13,830 14,772 25,008 35,095 savills.com.au/research 3

4 Leasing Activity & Demand In the 12 months to March 2018, 327,795 square metres of space (sized above 1,000 square metres) was leased in the Melbourne CBD. This is down 37% from 12 months ago. Near record low vacancy rates limited tenant migration, though leasing activity in year to March 2018 was still above the 10 year average of 315,970 square metres. Docklands precinct accounted for 28% of the total space leased in the past 12 months. Of total office stock leased in the last 12 months, over half of the leases were large tenant requirements sized above 10,000 square metres, amounting to 176,124 square metres of total office take-up. Grade A stock accounted for the majority of the tenant take-up, measuring 217,910 square metres of office space leased over the past year. The Finance and Insurance sector was the dominant cohort, responsible for 34% of total office leasing activity for first time in the past seven years, surpassing Government and Community which accounted for 33%. Demand from the Education sub-sector (a sub-sector of the Government & Community sector) grew, as Melbourne s status as the most liveable city in Australia and relative affordability compared to Sydney continued to be a drawing card for international students. This drove educational institutes to compete with Professional Services and Government sector tenants looking to expand or upgrade their existing floor space. The largest recorded transaction from the Education & Training sub-sector was Monash College s lease at 750 Collins Street building (41,000 square metres). Leasing Activity by Precinct (> 1,000 square meters) 700,000 Spencer Flagstaff Docklands Western Core 600,000 Civic North Eastern Eastern Core 500, , , , ,000 - Leasing Activity by Tenant Type (> 1,000 square meters) Fin & Ins % Govt & Community % Prop & Bus Serv % IT & Comm % Mining - 9.7% Direct leases accounted for the majority of recorded leases (130,000 square metres) in total leasing activity in 12 months to March Pre-Commitment leases ranked second in the lease category with 122,254 square metres of pre-commitment leases recorded over the 12 months to March In the most notable deals in the past year, National Bank of Australia pre-committed to lease 43,000 square metres at 405 Bourke Street and Energy Australia has pre-committed 22,000 square metres lease at Two Melbourne Quarter. Whilst, AMP Capital pre-committed to 9,720 square metres at Lendlease s One Melbourne Quarter and ANZ pre-committed to 26,500 square metres at 839 Collins Street. Growth in professional job advertisements has been consistently positive in Victoria over the last five years with recent job advertisements (Mar-18) at their highest level since September Reflected in positive net absorption numbers in Melbourne CBD the growth in professional job advertisements still strong in the current quarter, it would be prudent to expect this to translate to continued positive net absorption over the remainder of W'Sale & Retail - 1.4% Net Absorption vs. Growth in Professional Job Ads 150,000 Annual Net Abs. - MEL CBD 130,000 Prof. Job Ads - VIC 110,000 90,000 70,000 50,000 30,000 10,000 (10,000) (30,000) (50,000) Source: PCA / DOE / Savills Research 50% 25% 0% (25%) (50%) savills.com.au/research 4

5 Growth in professional job advertisements in Victoria remained the highest amongst the Eastern states and also considerably higher than the national average. Victorian employment indicators recorded highest growth in the Professional and Technical services sector, which is on trend with national employment numbers. This points to stronger growth in white collar employment for Victoria, which is likely to translate to continued strength in tenant demand for Melbourne CBD. Professional Job Advertisement Growth by State (Mar-18) WA QLD VIC 9.54 AUS 7.36 SA 7.14 Strong business conditions were evident from the NAB Index, which is a record high for the series driven by the Finance, and Property and Business Services amongst the white collar employment industries. As a result, Savills Research expects the positive outlook for leasing demand in Melbourne CBD to persist in the short to medium term. NT ACT NSW TAS (0.67) Source: DOE / Savills Research Recent Notable Leases (by Area Leased) Tenant Property Date NLA (sqm) Type Rent Term National Bank of Australia 405 Bourke St, Melbourne Jan-18 43,000 Precom n.a. 12 Monash College 750 Collins St, Melbourne Oct-17 41,000 Direct n.a. n.a. Energy Australia 697 Collins St, Melbourne Mar-18 22,000 Precom n.a. n.a. RMIT University 222 Lonsdale St, Melbourne Jan-18 10,634 Direct n.a 15 AMP Capital 699 Collins St, Docklands Oct-17 9,720 Precom n.a n.a. Allianz Australia Services 360 Elizabeth St, Melbourne Apr-17 7,260 Renewal n.a 5 AGL Energy 664 Collins St, Melbourne Oct-17 6,366 Precom n.a. 10 PEXA 727 Collins St, Docklands Dec-17 2,640 Direct n.a n.a. Worksafe Victoria 567 Collins St, Melbourne Feb-18 2,603 Direct n.a. 10 The National Heart Foundation 850 Collins St, Docklands Jun-17 2,154 Direct 420 (N) 7 Mitsui & Co 120 Collins St, Melbourne Oct-17 1,689 Renewal n.a. 5 Melbourne IT 505 Lt Collins St, Melbourne Sep-17 1,568 Direct 370 (N) 5 Deloitte 181 William St, Melbourne Apr-17 1,500 Direct n.a 3 Space & Co. 360 Elizabeth St, Melbourne Aug-17 1,426 Direct n.a n.a. Vic State Govt. Dept of Treasury & Finance 222 Exhibition St, Melbourne Sep-17 1,327 Renewal 460 (N) 3 RMIT University 171 La Trobe St, Melbourne Jun-17 1,300 Renewal n.a 3 Clear Edge 555 Bourke St, Melbourne Apr-17 1,213 Direct 450 (N) 7 The Australian Institute of Superannuation Trustees (AIST) 150 Lonsdale St, Melbourne Apr-17 1,126 Direct 415 (N) 10 Mars 727 Collins St, Docklands Feb-18 1,000 Direct n.a. n.a. savills.com.au/research 5

6 Sales Activity Investment activity was the strongest on record, with Savills Research recording approximately $3.9 billion of Melbourne CBD office sales transactions in the 12 months to March After muted sales activity in 2016, reported sales over past 12 months were the highest on record, and 135% more than recorded sales activity in previous 12 month period. Foreign investors remained the most dominant purchaser type, accounting for 58.5% of total sales in the 12 months to March Prime grade office sales accounted for 63% of the total investment transactions amounting to $2.45 billion in Melbourne CBD over the past year. Docklands precinct accounted for 56% of the prime grade sales volume across the CBD. A shortage of prime investment grade assets offered for sale in an active investment environment has translated to robust demand for assets currently under development. Five fund-through transactions amounting to $1.75 billion, have been recorded in Melbourne CBD over the past year. In the most recent fund through sale, Lendlease APPF and First State Super purchased Two Melbourne Quarter from Lendlease development. The Grade A building, comprising 49,000 square metres of the leasable area has a 22,000 square metres of pre-commitment from Energy Australia. Also, ISPT purchased 50% share of 405 Bourke Street development from Brookfield, while Australia Post has divested its 50% holding of Cbus 311 Spencer Street development to Keppel REIT. Other key fund through transactions include ARA Asset Management s acquisition of a 50% stake in 477 Collins Street for $414 million, and Morgan Stanley s acquisition of a 50% share in 664 Collins Street for $138 million, which is to be held in Morgan Stanley s Prime Property Asia Fund. Strong investment levels state the unabated investor demand for prime assets offered for sale, with a few fund through deals setting new low benchmarks for Grade A assets below 5% yields. The yield compression cycle has continued for the past seven years (since December 2010) and has been even more pronounced over the last 12 months. Yields for Grade A assets have tightened by 55 basis points on average, while secondary yields compressed by 120 basis points on average, mainly due to lack of stock offered for sale. Sales Activity by Price (> $5 million) $4,500m $4,000m $3,500m $3,000m $2,500m $2,000m $1,500m $1,000m $500m $0m Vendors Purchasers 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% % $5m - $50m $50m - $100m >$100m Vendor & Purchaser Type (> $5 million) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fund Trust Developer Owner Occupier Government Syndicate Foreign Investor Private Investor Other Yield Spread to Bond & IRR Melbourne CBD 10yr Bond Rate Average Melbourne CBD (Grade A Yield) Average Melbourne CBD (Grade A IRR) savills.com.au/research 6

7 Capital values in Melbourne CBD as at March 2018 are estimated to range from $8,000 to $12,000 per square metre for Grade A buildings and between $6,000 and $10,000 per square metre for secondary grade buildings. Average capital values for Grade A properties grew by 6.4% over the year. Although current market yields remain at record low levels, this coincides with historically low interest and 10-year bond rates, incentivising investors to seek a healthy return on property investment. Australia s safe-haven status, historically low-interest rates, tightening vacancy rates and Melbourne s relative affordability over Sydney led investors to demand for core office property in Melbourne CBD, further augmenting the capital values over the past year. Capital Value ($/sq m) vs. Market Yield 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Capital Value - MEL CBD Market Yield (RHS) 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% Recent Notable Sales (by Sale Price) Property Price ($m) Date NLA Yield Type $/sq m 697 Collins St (Two Melbourne Quarter), Melbourne Mar-18 50,000 n.a n.a 11, Collins St (Older Fleet), Melbourne (50%) Jun-17 58, e 14, Bourke St, Melbourne (50%) Dec-17 61,500 n.a n.a 13, Spencer St, Melbourne (50%) Jun-17 65, e n.a 447 Collins St (Collins Arch), Melbourne (50%) Jul-17 49,000 n.a n.a 12, Collins St, Docklands Nov-17 28, e 10, Spencer St, Melbourne Jun-17 32,217 n.a n.a 7, Bourke St (QBE House), Melbourne Jun-17 24, e 7, La Trobe St, Melbourne Nov-17 19,864 n.a n.a 8, Collins St, Docklands Nov-17 17,337 n.a n.a 9, Bourke St, Melbourne Nov-17 16,152 n.a n.a 8, Collins St, Docklands (50%) Jun-17 26, r 10, La Trobe St, Docklands Aug-17 12, e 8, Franklin St, Melbourne Dec-17 n.a n.a n.a n.a Collins St (Newspaper House), Melbourne Apr-17 2, i 16, Russell St, Melbourne Jul-17 2,591 n.a n.a 8, Elizabeth St (Elizabeth Chambers), Melbourne 9.62 Mar n.a n.a 17, Hardware Ln (Cyclone House), Melbourne 6.71 Sep n.a n.a 16,692 ; Yield Types: i = Initial, r = Reported, e = Equated, v = Vacant, dev = development savills.com.au/research 7

8 Supply 2017 saw negative net stock additions (-10,399 square metres) to the CBD for the first time since December 2002, with only 9,000 square metres of office space added (new and refurbished) at Rialto Tower and further addition of 9,400 square metres of refurbished office space across two projects. At the same time, 31,000 square metres of office accommodation was withdrawn, of which 19,500 square metres was for refurbishment purposes. The forecast supply for 2018 includes the new development of three projects - Tower 5 at Collins Square, One Melbourne Quarter and 664 Collins Street totalling 90,000 square metres in the Docklands precinct. Also, refurbishment of four office projects is scheduled to return 44,000 square metres of refurbished office space to the CBD market. Supply levels over will remain lower than the longterm average until the new supply comes online in Net Supply by Year (square metres) 350,000 Historic Net Additions Savills Forecast 300,000 15yr Avg 250, , , ,000 50,000 - (50,000) / PCA Development The table below details the major upcoming and planned development projects in the Melbourne CBD. Building Address Dev Stage NLA Exp. Comp Tenants Tower 5, 737 Collins Street, Collins Square UC 40, Transurban, Grant Thornton One Melbourne Quarter UC 26, Arup, Lendlease, AMP 664 Collins Street UC 25, Pitcher Partners, Exxon, Fujitsu, AGL 839 Collins Street UC 38, ANZ 271 Spring Street UC 15, Australian Unity 405 Bourke Street UC 61, NAB 80 Collins Street South Tower UC 43, Macquarie Group, Savills 477 Collins Street UC 51, Deloitte 447 Collins Street UC 49, King & Wood Mallesons, Gadens, HWL Ebsworth 311 Spencer Street PS 65, Vic Police, Fed Police, ACIC 130 Lonsdale Street UC 55, Cbus, Vanguard, Telstra Super 140 Lonsdale Street DA 15, Two Melbourne Quarter DA 49, Energy Australia 1000 La Trobe Street PA 31, Melbourne Quarter Tower PA 55, ; UC = Under Construction, DA = Development Approved, EP = Early Planning, PS = Plans Submitted, PA = Plans Approved savills.com.au/research 8

9 Rents Net effective rents in Melbourne CBD typically range from $405 to $615 per square metre per annum for premium assets, $380 to $470 per square metre for Grade A stock, and between $345 and $370 per square metre for Grade B grade buildings. Net effective rents in Melbourne CBD are now witnessing cyclical upturn, recording the highest average rents for Premium and Grade A assets. This rental growth corresponds with tightening Prime vacancy rates since December Interestingly, Grade B net effective rents are also at historically high levels. Average net effective rents for Premium grade assets grew by 17%, whilst Grade A net effective rents recorded a 12% increase over the current 12 month period. The highest growth over the past year was recorded for Grade B net effective rents, which rose by 22%. Net Effective Rents by Grade ($/sq m) 600 Premium Grade A Grade B Net Face & Net Effective Rents as at Mar-18 ($/sq m) Growth in net effective rents over the three years was as a result of a combination of growth in net face rents and falling incentive levels. Net incentive levels have fallen from a high of 31% (in June 2014) to 27% for Prime grade property. Looking forward, Savills Research expects current rental growth to continue its momentum over the next two years, with a stabilising effect thereafter, as nearly 307,000 square metres of supply comes online around Outlook Melbourne s notable absorption is largely a result of strong economic fundamentals in Victoria. The Victorian economy is growing faster and stronger than any other state in the country underpinned by key drivers - population and employment growth. Forward-looking drivers point to a continued demand on the back of above average jobs growth, predominantly strong rise in professional services jobs and job advertisements. Contrary to the strong tenant demand, supply levels are expected to remain constrained with tighter vacancy rates at play, in turn limiting tenant migration until new supply comes online in This is likely to temper net absorption levels over the next 12 to 18 months. While overall tenant demand continues to remain strong as the vacancy levels tighten, rental growth is expected to continue an upwards cycle, although with incentives still at play. As Melbourne CBD enters a new phase of development activity, Savills Research expects net supply to be muted over the next two years after which close to 307,000 square metres of developments will come online in 2020, which will have a stabilising impact on rents. Although investment yields are now at record low levels coinciding with record low-interest rates, this still offers cushioning against the long-term bond yields. With a lower for longer outlook for interest and long-term bond rates, Savills Research expects the current yield compression cycle to continue, albeit at a lower rate, with investment capital chasing expectations of future income growth. The US Federal Reserve System raised its benchmark interest rates in March 2018 and has another two rate hikes forecast for the remainder of As interest rates rise in the competing global markets such as the US lift yields, Australian markets - particularly Melbourne will remain an attractive investment destination for foreign buyers when compared to its global competitors in the capital transactions market. savills.com.au/research 9

10 Melbourne CBD Key Indicators (Q1-18) Premium A Grade B Grade Low High Low High Low High Rental - Gross Face ($/sq m) 735 1, Rental - Net Face ($/sq m) Incentive Level Net 24% 28% 25% 28% 22% 26% Rental - Net Effective ($/sq m) Outgoings - Operating ($/sq m) Outgoings - Statutory ($/sq m) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Typical Lease Term Yield - Market (% Net Face Rental) IRR (%) Cars Permanent Reserved ($/pcm) Cars Permanent ($/pcm) Office Capital Values ($/sq m) 10,000 15,000 8,000 12,000 6,000 10,000 NB: All rents equivalent to whole floor mid-rise Key State Office Contacts Research Monica Mondkar +61 (0) mmondkar@savills.com.au Office Leasing Mark Rasmussen +61 (0) mrasmussen@savills.com.au Valuations Joe Phegan +61 (0) jphegan@savills.com.au Project Management David Hayden +61 (0) dhayden@savills.com.au Capital Transactions Ben Parkinson +61 (0) bparkinson@savills.com.au Asset Management Howard Chapman +61 (0) hchapman@savills.com.au CBD & Metropolitan Sales Clinton Baxter +61 (0) cbaxter@savills.com.au The Savills Research & Consultancy team has years of experience, and is supported by our extensive agency, property management and valuation professionals. For national-level consultancy or subscription requirements please contact: Capital Strategy & Research Chris Freeman +61 (0) cfreeman@savills.com.au Savills is a leading global property service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. Trusted since 1855, we have extensive experience across the Asia Pacific, with over 50 offices, and in Australia, we have over 800 staff focused on meeting all your property needs. This information is general information only and is subject to change without notice. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Savills will not be liable for any omissions or errors. Savills will not be liable, including for negligence, for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential losses or damages arising out of our in any way connected with use of any of this information. This information does not form part of or constitute an offer or contract. You should rely on your own enquiries about the accuracy of any information or materials. All images are only for illustrative purposes. This information must not be copied, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Savills. savills.com.au/research 10