Housing Outlook. Mr Sam White, Ray White Group Mr Harley Dale, Housing Industry Association. 29 October 2007

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1 Housing Outlook Mr Sam White, Ray White Group Mr Harley Dale, Housing Industry Association 29 October 2007

2 Australian Business Economists October 2007 Presented by Sam White

3 Average Prices 700, , ,000 NSW QLD SA/NT VIC/TAS WA 400, , , ,000 Qtr Jun 06 Qtr Sep 06 Qtr Dec 06 Qtr Mar 07 Qtr Jun 07 Qtr Sep 07 Source: Ray White Slide 3

4 NZ Experience AVERAGE PRICES 500, , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 Qtr Dec 06 Qtr Mar 07 Qtr Jun 07 Qtr Sep 07 Source: NZ ABS Source: Ray White Slide 4

5 Ray White Sydney Markets Blue Metro Green BLUE METRO GREEN Eastern Suburbs, North Shore, most of Northern Beaches, part of Inner West Southern suburbs, Sutherland, Northern Districts, Hills Districts, Western Sydney, most of South West Sydney, Central Coast Some outer lying Sydney and regional Slide 5

6 Average Prices Blue Metro Current 1,050,000 1,000, , , , , , ,000 Jun 06 Sep 06 Dec 06 Mar 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Source: Ray White Ray White Market Slide 6

7 Average Prices Blue Metro Current 520, , , , , , , , ,000 Jun 06 Sep 06 Dec 06 Mar 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Source: Ray White Ray White Market Slide 7

8 Average Prices 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 Slide 8 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Source: Ray White Blue Metro

9 NSW Trading Sales 400,000, ,000,000 Trading sales ($) 300,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 50,000,000 0 Mar 06 Jun 06 Sep 06 Dec 06 Mar 07 Jun 07 Ray White 'Blue' Ray White 'Metro' Source: Ray White Slide 9

10 Sales Volume NSW Number of properties sold: March Qtr 2006 March Qtr 2007 % change Blue % Metro % Sydney TOTAL 1,318 1,680 21% Source: Ray White Slide 10

11 Auction Clearance Rates Mar 2006 Jun 2006 Sep 2006 Dec 2006 Mar 2007 Jun 2007 Sep 2007 Blue 59% 59% 57% 56% 69% 74% 73% Metro 45% 42% 40% 42% 55% 55% 55% Sydney TOTAL 54% 52% 49% 50% 63% 65% 66% Source: Ray White Slide 11

12 Median Weekly Asking Rents Houses Sep 07 Jun 07 Sep 06 3 month % change 12 month % change Sydney $400 $385 $350 4% 14% Melbourne $330 $320 $285 3% 16% Brisbane $320 $320 $290 0% 10% Source: Australian Property Monitors Rental Report, September Quarter. Slide 12

13 Gross Rental Yield Houses Sep 07 Jun 07 Sep 06 3 month % change 12 month % change Sydney 4.00% 4.00% 3.80% 0% 6% Melbourne 4.30% 4.30% 4.00% -1% 5% Brisbane 4.80% 4.80% 4.60% 0% 3% Source: Australian Property Monitors Rental Report, September Quarter. Slide 13

14 Median Weekly Asking Rents Units Sep 07 Jun 07 Sep 06 3 month % change 12 month % change Sydney $380 $380 $340 0% 12% Melbourne $290 $285 $260 2% 12% Brisbane $300 $300 $285 0% 5% Source: Australian Property Monitors Rental Report, September Quarter. Slide 14

15 Gross Rental Yield Units Sep 07 Jun 07 Sep 06 3 month % change 12 month % change Sydney 4.90% 5.00% 4.60% -1% 6% Melbourne 4.90% 4.90% 4.50% 0% 9% Brisbane 4.90% 4.90% 4.60% 0% 6% Source: Australian Property Monitors Rental Report, September Quarter. Slide 15

16 Factors in the Market Slide 16

17 Supply Side Tight Equity vs growth in prices Pay later poor vs rising home values Appraisal numbers are down Slide 17

18 Demand Side The boy who cried wolf Slide 18

19 Source: Australian Financial Review 18 August 2007 Source: Australian Financial Review 3 October 2007 Slide 19

20 Demand Side The boy who cried wolf Caution at top end vs evidence High growth in weekly rents vs costs of first home owners Interest rates Slide 20

21 Australian Business Economists October 2007 Presented by Sam White

22 The Outlook for Residential Activity Harley Dale HIA Chief Economist Australian Business Economists October 2007

23 Overview: New housing is flat, renovations has been recovering for some time There are wide differences in housing conditions across both geographical locations and sectors of the residential sector These differences will remain with us for some time yet

24 There are four sectors at play: New home building The renovations sector The established housing market The rental market

25 Sector 1: New Homes Dwelling Approvals the heartbeat of the new home industry Activity very cyclical until recently Building Approvals - Australia The industry needs to build 170,000 homes per annum to satisfy population growth (equates to 14,500 approvals per month) Have been below this level since 2003 Number Aug-83 Aug-86 Aug-89 Aug-92 Aug-95 Aug-98 Aug-01 Aug-04 Aug-07 Seasonally adjusted Trend

26 Sector 1: New Homes Building Approvals Capital City vs Rest of State Six months to August 2007 Rest of TAS Hobart Rest of WA Perth Rest of SA Adelaide Rest of QLD Brisbane Rest of VIC Melbourne Rest of NSW Sydney % annual

27 Sector 1: New Homes Supply side constraints have been an issue, in particular land availability and price. High prices have hammered affordability Typical house-and-land package was 4.5 times annual earnings in the 1990 s it s currently 8 times Vacant Lot Price - Average of Australia's Largest 5 States Source: Australian Property Monitors $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 Jun-97 Vacant Lot Price (LHS) Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 $176,634 Annual Change (RHS) Jun-06 Jun % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20%

28 Sector 1: New Homes Primary Charges for Broadacre Development - % of final house price* Source: HIA 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 16.9% 12.0% 10.9% Per cent 10.0% 8.0% 6.8% 6.8% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.5% 1.9% 5.3% 1.1% 4.7% 0.0% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane 1980's 1990's 2007 Includes: infrastructure charges; local regulations; compliance costs; stamp duty on land

29 Sector 1: New Homes Change in Housing Starts 2003/04 to 2006/ % Change New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania Northern Territory ACT

30 Sector 1: New Homes Dwelling Commencement Forecasts & 2007/ Australia NSW Victoria Qld SA WA Sep-06 Actual 2007/08

31 Sector 1: New Homes HOUSING STARTS: by state and territory thousand dwellings com m enced NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT Aust 2002/03 (a) /04 (a) /05 (a) /06 (a) /07 (a) / / / % change: 2003/04 (a) /05 (a) /06 (a) /07 (a) / / /

32 Sector 2: The Renovations Sector New Housing and Renovations $ million / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /07 New Renovations Renovation activity is much less cyclical Renovation activity lost its sexiness for a couple of years but is now heading back up

33 Sector 2: The Renovations Sector Average Value of Major Renovation Projects Source: HIA Renovations Monitor Second Storey Extensions 115,023 Ground Floor Extensions 109,546 Repairs/Maintenance 39,100 External Work 34,288 Roofing and Cladding 33,358 Kitchens 21,929 Bathrooms 20,681 Garages/Carports 18,591 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000

34 Sector 3: The Established Real Estate Market 70,000 Purchase of Established Dwellings - Number of Monthly Loans On the up and up and set to continue that way 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Oct-75 Oct-77 Oct-79 Oct-81 Oct-83 Oct-85 Oct-87 Oct-89 Oct-91 Oct-93 Oct-95 Oct-97 Oct-99 Oct-01 Oct-03 Oct-05

35 Sector 3: The Established Real Estate Market

36 Sector 3: The Established Real Estate Market Median House Prices June 2007 quarter 20% 18% 16% 17.6% Annual Growth 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 12.8% 11.6% 10.8% 9.8% 8.7% 4.7% 2% 0% -2% -0.2% Canberra Source APM Brisbane Darwin Melbourne Adelaide Perth Hobart Sydney

37 Sector 3: The Established Real Estate Market Change in Median House Prices Source: REIA 25.0% 20.0% Annuul % change 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Inner Melbourne Middle Melbourne Outer Melbourne Geelong Bendigo Ballarat

38 Sector 4: The Rental Market Vacancy Rate, Capital Cities, June 2007 qtr Source: REIA Darwin 1.2% The real casualty of the current housing squeeze Hobart Canberra 2.3% 2.4% Public housing supply has all but disappeared Perth Adelaide 1.3% 2.1% Tight Market Easy Market Vacancy rates are at crucially tight levels Brisbane 1.5% Melbourne 1.4% Sydney 1.4% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Per Cent

39 Sector 4: The Rental Market Trend in Lending for Residential Investment Source: ABS $000's Jul-97 Jul-98 Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 $000's New (lhs) Existing (rhs)

40 Sector 4: The Rental Market Growth in Residential Lending over 2006/ Annual % change OO = Owner Occupier; FHB = First Home Buyer FHB and Non-FHB owner occupier only Established OO New Purchase OO Construction OO Established Investment -5 New Investment FHB Non FHB

41 Hot off the press HIA Trade Contractor Price Index - by Trade (Sep 02 All Trades, All Regions = 100) Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Qtly Change Annual Change Bricklaying % 14.0% Carpentry % 4.1% Ceramic Tiling % -2.1% Electrical % 0.0% General Building % 0.0% Joinery % 7.8% Landscaping % 4.8% Other Trades % 3.2% Painting % 4.4% Plastering % 7.1% Plumbing % 5.9% Roofing % 4.1% Site Preparation % 2.5% All trades % 5.4%

42 Hot off the press Trade Availability - by Region Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Sydney Quarterly Movement in Availability Regional NSW Melbourne Regional Vic Brisbane Regional QLD Adelaide Regional SA = Perth Regional WA All of Australia *Note: Critical Short Supply is between -2 and -1, Moderate Short Supply is between -1 and 0, In balance = 0 Moderate oversupply is between 0 and 1, and massive oversupply is between 1 and 2. Source: HIA Austral Bricks Trades Report

43 Some points to take away: No recovery for new home building until 2008/09 within which wide differences across regions will persist The renovations sector will grow through the rest of the decade Current fair call: If you re in the housing market you re fine, if you re not, you re stuffed. Land release, infrastructure funding, investment in new rental stock are vital ingredients to a national housing recovery of any suitable magnitude

44 Harley Dale Chief Economist October 2007 Password: ABEOctober

45 Wednesday 14 November Forecasting Conference Tim Flannery, Ross Gittins, Don Gunasekera Annual Dinner Richard Fisher, Dallas Federal Reserve abe.org.au

46

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