Sydney CBD Market Commercial Market Overview - Jul 2015

Transcription

1 Sydney CBD Market Commercial Market Overview - Jul 2015

2 Contents The Sydney CBD Market... 4 The Sydney CBD Market - Summary... 5 The Sydney CBD Market - Overview... 6 The Sydney CBD Market - Commercial Stock... 7 Commercial Market Sales... 9 Sales Activity... 9 Sales Investor Activity and Composition Sales - Outlook Commercial Market Leasing Leasing - Activity Leasing - Outlook Sydney CBD Development CI Research Page 2 of 15

3 CI Teams The team at CI Australia benefit from a strong resource of property knowledge. Through close interaction with all departments and services offered within CI, are teams are able to access an extensive database of market activity. This, combined with the wide range of services available from our parent company APP Corporation, allows our teams to offer an all inclusive service to our clients. For further information or assistance and any enquiry, please contact: Name : Andrew Hunter Title : CEO Mobile : ahunter@ciaustralia.com.au Name : Michael Stokes Title : Director, Capital Transactions Australia Mobile : mstokes@ciaustralia.com.au Name : Ben Kardachi Title : Director, Sydney Leasing Mobile : bkardachi@ciaustralia.com.au Name : Georgia Hundt Title : Director, Tenant Representation Services Mobile : ghundt@ciaustralia.com.au Page 3 of 15

4 The Sydney CBD Market About : The Sydney CBD is recognised globally as the financial hub of Australia and consists of five major regions which include: The Financial Core located in the heart of the CBD The Western Corridor and Barangaroo precinct that runs along Cockle Bay Walsh Bay and the Rocks located at the Northern end of the CBD Midtown which runs along and around Hyde Park Southern which is below Midtown Page 4 of 15

5 The Sydney CBD Market - Summary Stock Period : January 2015 Total Commercial Stock : 4,961,728sqm Total Vacancy : 369,320sqm Vacancy Factor : 7.4% Net Absorption : 78,262sqm (12 months to Jan 2015) Sales Recent Activity : $4.7 B sold in 2014/2015.Double from 12 month period before Market Yields : Premium 5.5% % A Grade 6.25% % Secondary Grades 7.00% % Trends : Further yield compression for secondary grade offices expected Comments : Purchaser demand continues to be strong, fuelled by low interest rates and growth in funds management Andrew Hunter, CEO, CI Australia Leasing Market Activity : 243,800 sqm of leasing space Market Rents : $400-$720/sqm Market Incentives : Up to 30% depending on rental levels Comments : Demand has continued to improve throughout 2015, particularly from IT, Education and Property Services Sectors Ben Kardachi, Director, Sydney CBD Leasing Page 5 of 15

6 The Sydney CBD Market - Overview The Sydney CBD contains the nation s largest commercial property market comprising of 4,961,728sqm of stock. The city is characterised by a large financial services sector that has made Sydney the financial hub of Australia. It is typically growth in these industries that triggers redevelopment and expansion, the most contemporary example being the recent and ongoing developments at Barangaroo, the largest redevelopment project in Sydney this century. Sydney CBD has a high tenant profile of major companies that enjoy a prestigious location strategically positioned within Australia s financial hub. This is evidenced through the high rent levels and strong yield figures in comparison to other commercial precincts nationwide. The Barangaroo project is a prime example of Sydney s attraction to major tenants as the pre-commitment of Westpac, KPMG, Gilbert and Tobin, Lend Lease, PWC, HSBC and Marsh to Barangaroo South illustrate the suitability of the location to provide premium commercial accommodation and address the key target markets. Page 6 of 15

7 The Sydney CBD Market - Commercial Stock The Sydney CBD has recently witnessed an improvement in vacancy rates which have reduced by 1.6%. Further to this, the average vacancy rate for January 2015 is below the 10 year average of 8%. An analysis of these vacancy rates can be seen below. SYDNEY CBD (AGGREGATE) KEY MARKET INDICATORS Based on figures at January 2015 (Source PCA/CI Australia) Grade Vacancy January 2015(%) Vacancy January 2014 (%) Net Absorption, 6 months January 2015 (sqm) Net Absorption, 12 months to January 2015 (sqm) Premium ,503 15,201 A ,822 52,518 B ,146 28,577 C ,336-13,327 D ,707 Total ,279 78,262 Total Average Vacancy Page 7 of 15

8 SYDNEY CBD VACANCY RATES BY GRADE 8.0% 7.2% 7.3% 7.0% 6.6% Premium Grade A Grade B Grade C Grade D Grade In summary: Commercial stock is becoming limited as a result of the residential conversion of B Grade commercial space Limited new commercial stock and increased demand has led to a reduction in vacancy rates A reduction in vacancy rates due B, C and D Grade commercial space withdrawals has encouraged tenants to take up existing A and premium Grade commercial space. Premium Grade commercial space has remained unaffected. It is anticipated that growth in demand for premium space will follow shortly as tenants seek better quality premises due to the boom of growth and development within the Sydney CBD and more specifically, the Barangaroo precinct The Barangaroo precinct will introduce over 268,000sqm of premium office space which will attract tenants from existing stock within the Sydney CBD. This is anticipated to increase vacancy rates in the Premium/A grade markets. Page 8 of 15

9 Commercial Market Sales Sales Activity In the last 12 months, commercial sales within the Sydney CBD have totalled an estimated $4.7 billion. This increase is relatively large when compared to the 5 year average of $2.5 billion, and is thought to be a result of the significant weight of domestic and offshore capital chasing a limited amount of stock. An example of this is foreign investors who have purchased over $1.2 billion dollars of commercial stock. This figure comprises mostly B Grade office space with intentions to convert the stock into residential or mixed use. This pattern has seen a tightening of B Grade yields to around 7%. Capital values and yields within Sydney s CBD are signicantly varied amongst building grades. High quality A Grade assets have a capital value of approximately $8000- $13,000 per square metre and a yield range of sub 6.00%-7.00%. Secondary B, C or D Grade assets have capital values of anywhere between $5000-$8000 per square metre and a yield range of 7%-9%. Examples of recent transactions are detailed below. SYDNEY CBD SALES ACTIVITY Based on figures at July 2015 (Source CI Research) Number Street Total Area (sqm) Land Area (sqm) Date Price Yield 36 Hickson Road 1, Jan-14 $12,150,000 N/A 2A Macquarie Street 30,000 14,000 Jan-14 $80,000, % 133 Castlereagh Street 42,000 Feb-14 $194,250, % 255 George Street 39, Feb-14 $116,000, % Pitt Street 5, Feb-14 $55,000,000 N/A Castlereagh Street Feb-14 $9,200, % 50 & 54 Park Street 21,153 2,057 Feb-14 $126,500, % 312 George Street 437 Mar-14 $8,500,000 N/A 570 George Street 21,930 2,175 Mar-14 $151,800,000 U/D 59 Goulburn Street 19,721 1,947 Apr-14 $82,000, % 63 York Street 1, Apr-14 $11,200, % 88 Cumberland 4,676 1,464 Jun 14 $26,350,000 8% 285A Crown Oct-14 $50,250, % 35 Clarence Dec-14 $137,100, % 275 Clarence Dec-14 $3,450, % 338 Pitt Street 18,473 - Jan-15 $102,000,000 N/A Page 9 of 15

10 Sales Investor Activity and Composition It is anticipated that investor demand will continue to be strong over the next 24 months due to the following factors: Current interest in Sydney CBD assets are from local institutions, funds and offshore groups, namely investors from Asia including mainland China. This has come about due to strong occupational demand, tightening rates and mid term development potential. A large proportion of investment transactions stream from the foreign investment sector which accounts for over 40% of transactions Fund investments made up 25% of transactions Trust investment made up 12% of transactions Sydney CBD Investor Type 23% 40% 12% 25% Foreign Investor Fund investor Trust Investor Other Page 10 of 15

11 Sales - Outlook The Sydney office market is going through an unprecedented growth period. CBD vacancy rates are descending due to increased demand and extraction of many office buildings for residential conversion, incentives are reducing and forecasted to trend down resulting in increases in face and effective rentals. Australia and more particularly the Sydney CBD remains extremely attractive to domestic AREITS and financial institutions as well as an increasing volume of overseas investors from Europe, the U.S., the Middle East and Asia. The low cost of capital in the current economic environment coupled with record low interest rates has further supported increases in demand from domestic and overseas purchasers. This has led to significant yield compression which we believe will continue in the short term. - Andrew Hunter CEO, CI Australia Page 11 of 15

12 Commercial Market Leasing Leasing - Activity The Sydney CBD commercial market is currently witnessing an increase in leasing activity. This has come as a result of a larger number of tenant expansion over the past 12 months, especially in areas such as the Financial Core precinct. Due to a slow incline in business confidence, specifically in the IT/cloud based sector, the availability of high quality accommodation is becoming increasingly available to tenants. Examples of recent leasing activity are detailed below: SYDNEY CBD LEASING ACTIVITY Based on figures at July 2015 (Source CI Research) Number Property Date NLA (sqm) Rent ($/sqm) Tenant 201 Elizabeth Street Mar-15 3,456 na Campaign Monitor 37 Pitt Street Mar G Australian Credit and Finance 1 Bligh Street Mar-15 1, G Holman Fenwick Willan 343 George Street Mar-15 2,785 $739G Atlassian George Street Mar-15 1, G State water 14 Martin Place Feb $820G DCWC 420 George Street Aug $900 Berkshire Hathway 420 George Street Aug $730 CBA In summary: The current increasing demand for quality space has come about as a result of the rising business confidence, stability and growth High quality office grades are currently at an approximate incentive rate of 27% with rental rate figures of approximately $875- $1,400sqm (net) A Grade assets currently have a rental rate figure of $600-$875sqm (net) Secondary grade assets have a rental rate figure of $450-$600/sqm (net) Barangaroo has seen the largest pre-commitment of leasing space. Examples including PWC (26,500sqm), HSBC (8,000sqm), Westpac (70,000sqm),KPMG (34,000sqm) and Marsh Mercer (18,000sqm). Page 12 of 15

13 Leasing - Outlook Demand has continued to improve throughout 2015, particularly from IT, Education and Property Services Sectors. With property options have recently become under offer (signed heads of agreement stage, leases not yet executed) in buildings such as 45 Clarence Street, 1 Market, 2 Market, MLC, 1 Martin Place and 60 Margaret Street, contiguous larger opportunities in the market have substantially decreased. A tenant looking to secure a long term lease over 5,000sqm or more and wanting to occupy by the end of 2015 is currently restricted to half a dozen options. We have also seen solid take up in the smaller end of the market (sub 1,000sqm), with many metropolitan tenants taking advantage of the market conditions and moving into the CBD. Examples include Xero Software leasing 325sqm in 309 George Street and coming in from Surry Hills, Second Road leasing 550sqm in 45 Clarence Street and coming in from Chatswood, Waterman AHW leasing 500sqm in 68 Pitt Street (31 Hunter) and moving in from North Sydney and Morphos leasing 200sqm in 40 King Street coming from Crows Nest. We anticipate the market to continue to improve throughout the second half of 2015 despite many completions coming online throughout this time including, 5 Martin Place, 20 Martin Place and of course Barangaroo, Tower 2. With business looking to combine both office efficiencies and costs, while competing in the war for talent, we anticipate demand to continue, with an emphasis for many to be located in the CBD. - Ben Kardachi Director, Sydney CBD Leasing Page 13 of 15

14 Sydney CBD Development The Sydney CBD has a variety of new upcoming developments of which 70% has been committed for construction. The below table details major development projects and their current status within the Sydney CBD. COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY Based on Figures at July 2015 (Source PCA/CI Research) Number Address Status Completion NLA (sqm) 50 Martin Place Complete Martin Place Site works Pitt Street DA Applied Mooted Martin Place (120 Pitt Street) Construction George Street Construction George Street Construction George Street DA applied Bligh Street (20-26 O'Connell Street) DA Approved Mooted Castlereagh Street Complete Martin Place Complete Farrer Place Construction Farrer Place DA Approved Farrer Place Construction In summary: The removal of stock for short term refurbishment combined with the conversion of commercial stock to residential will assist in continuing to lower vacancy rates Barangaroo is currently the largest development site within Australia. High levels of pre-commitment currently dominate the southern end of Barangaroo with 80% pre-commitment to Tower 2, 77% pre-commitment to Tower 3 and 34% precommitment to Tower 1. Page 14 of 15

15 CI Research CI Australia is widely regarded as a market leader within the property and real estate industry, specialising in the areas of: Commercial Leasing Tenant Representation Services Investment Sales Asset Management Engineering & Facilities Management Valuations & Advisory Marketing & Research The CI research team benefits from a vast network of industry connections combined with the inherent resource of property knowledge that accompanies. The team at CI work ambitiously and thrive in ensuring your interests are successfully protected and your key drivers achieved through high-performance and superior results. For more information on any of our research items, or to request a personalised research document specific to a certain market or asset, please contact our offices: Sydney CBD Office Level 4, 35 Clarence Street Sydney, NSW, 2000 T: F: sydney@ciaustralia.com.au North Sydney Office Level 7, 2 Elizabeth Plaza North Sydney, NSW, 2060 T: F: northsydney@ciaustralia.com.au Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by CI Australia Pty Limited ( CI ) concerning information on the Sydney CBD Market. This report is given for information purposes only. CI does not give any warranty of reliability, accuracy, currency or completeness of any of the information supplied nor does it accept any responsibility arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for any errors or omissions in the information provided. The information in this report is subject to change without notice and may include certain statements, estimates and projections with respect to anticipated future performance. No representations or warranties are made as to the validity of those assumptions or the accuracy of those statements, estimates or projections. Any interested party should form its own views as to what information is relevant to any decisions it makes and make its own independent investigations and obtain its own independent advice. This report does not form part of or constitute an offer or contract. The information in this report must not be copied, reproduced or distributed without the prior written approval of CI. Page 15 of 15