The Sydney CBD is in the midst of a supply drought

Transcription

1 RESEARCH

2 Stock withdrawals continue to have a bearing on the Sydney CBD office market with a total of 99,695 sq m (2.% of stock) withdrawn from the market during H Sydney CBD s white-collar employment has grown by 5,682 over the past year, representing an annual growth rate of 1.9%, 68bps above the 1 year average. Sustained strong demand amid tight supply has resulted in further contraction of vacancy, which declined from 5.8% in July 217 to 4.6% in January 218, the lowest level since July 28. Robust effective rental growth rates of 8.52% and 11.36% have been recorded for prime and secondary stock respectively over the past 12 months. Foreign investors and unlisted funds have underpinned strong investor demand in the CBD, which saw volumes up by 28% YoY to reach $4.98 billion in 217. Prime and secondary yields experienced further tightening of 2-4bps over the year to range between 4.5%-5.25% and 5.5% -6.% as at January 218. Associate Director, Research The Sydney CBD is in the midst of a supply drought Stock withdrawals have remained a key feature of the Sydney CBD office market over the past six months, highlighted by a total of 99,695 sq m (2.% of stock) withdrawn from the market. Of this amount, 22,483 sq m was permanently withdrawn for conversion to alternative uses. Prominent office buildings taken off -line over the past six months include 39 Martin Place (16,746 sq m), taken down for the construction of the Martin Place Metro Station, and 5 Bridge Street (54,98 sq m), to be demolished for the Quay Quarter Tower development. Additionally, four buildings along 9-13 Young Street, 2-1 Loftus Street, 2 Loftus Street and Young Street (totalling 19,594 sq m) have been withdrawn for conversion to super-prime residential developments as part of Quay Quarter Sydney precinct. Over the past two years, a total of 411,96 sq m of existing office space has been taken offline, equivalent to 8.1% of the total stock at the beginning of 216. Of this amount, 175,516 sq m has occurred over the past 12 months. While withdrawals were significant, new supply has been limited over the past six months with only 37,376 sq m added to the market, resulting in a negative net supply figure of 62,319 sq m (Figure 1). The supply shortage was further exacerbated by the fact that the majority of new additions had been precommitted prior to completion. New supply over the past six months has derived primarily from refurbished spaces stemming from 1 Shelley Street (27,718 sq m), which was fully committed by Suncorp, and Darling Park Tower 2 at 21 Sussex Street (2,773 sq m), primarily leased to IAG. The only new building completed during this period was the International House Sydney building at Barangaroo (6,885 sq m), fully occupied by Accenture relocating from Pyrmont. Limited speculative completions on the horizon Looking forward, new office supply in the Sydney CBD will be significantly constrained in the next two years, while stock withdrawals will continue to have a major effect on the market. The only new addition over the next 12 months is 151 Clarence Street (22, sq m), which is almost fully pre-leased by ARUP and Pfizer. The supply shortage is expected to stay in place at least until late 219/early 22 when 6 Martin Place (38,6 sq m reportedly pre-committed by Henry Davis York/Norton Rose Fulbright and Banco Chambers), and 275 George Street (6,363 sq m) are expected to come online. Beyond 22, the supply pipeline is projected to gradually improve although speculative supply is not expected to be significant. Future completions from 22 will include; Lendlease s second timber building (C1 Site) at the Barangaroo precinct (circa 11,25 sq m being considered by a co-working operator H1 22), Brookfield and AMP Capital s Wynyard Place project (68,2 sq m 53% pre-committed by NAB & Allianz H2 22), AMP Capital s Quay Quarter Tower (QQT) (88,274 sq m 4% precommitted by AMP Capital H2 22), Lendlease s Circular Quay Tower (CQT) (circa 55, sq m potentially end of 22 or early 221) and George Street (17, sq m potentially being pre-leased to a foreign co-working operator H2 221). Sydney CBD Office Market Indicators as at January 218 Grade Total Stock (sq m) Vacancy Rate (%) Annual Net Absorption (sq m) Annual Net Additions (sq m) Average Gross Face Rent* ($/sq m) Average Incentive* (%) Average Core Market Yield (%) Prime 2,97, ,435 42,936 1,1 1, Secondary 2,53, ,68-97, , Total 5,23, ,827-54,66 8-1, * 2

3 SYDNEY CBD OFFICE MARCH 218 RESEARCH Pitt St# - 18, sq m (ex Rail Corp) ISPT - H Clarence St - 22, sq m [ARUP, Pfizer] Investa - Q % committed 3 21 & 27 Kent St# - 5,536 sq m (ex ARUP) Cromwell / Investa- Q Broadway - 5,447 sq m Frasers/Seksui - H Oxford St# (ex Dept of Education) - 13,943 sq m Memocorp - H Clarence St - 9,5 sq m Built - H George St# - 36,151 sq m (ex IAG) Investa/Brookfield - H Martin Place - 38,6 sq m [Banco Chambers] Investa/Gwynvill Group - H1 22-7% committed 9 44 Martin Pl# - 9,5 sq m (ex Henry Davis York) Gwynvill Group - H Wynyard Pl - 58,974 sq m [NAB, Allianz] Brookfield - H % committed George St - 6,363 sq m John Holland - H Market St# - 22,3 sq m (ex Westpac) Mirvac - H Barangaroo C1 - c. 11, sq m LLOneITST - H Elizabeth St# - 22,964 sq m (ex Telstra) Charter Hall - H Pitt St# - 29,159 sq m (ex Telstra) ARA - H Market# - 18,99 sq m (ex Allianz) Allianz/Charter Hall - H George St# - 22,5 sq m (ex NAB) AMP - H Quay Quarter Tower (QQT) - 88,274 sq m AMP - H % committed 19 Circular Quay Tower (CQT), 182 George St - 55, sq m Lendlease - H George St - 17, sq m Poly Real Estate - H Bligh St - 26, sq m Energy Australia/Investa - Mooted Pitt St - 3, sq m+ Mirvac Darling Park Tower 4-7, sq m GPT/Brookfield/AMP Harrington St# - 6,37 sq m (ex Dimension Data) Harrington St Investments - H Alfred St# - 32,353 sq m (ex AMP Capital) AMP Capital - H Market St - c.12, sq m CBUS/Scentre - H Central Barangaroo - 45, sq m Grocon/Aqualand/Scentre Martin Place Metro Station North Tower (ex-55 Hunter St) TBC± Source of map: Knight Frank 29 Martin Place Metro Station South Tower (ex-39 Martin Pl) TBC± Refurbished Supply New Addition (Under Construction/Pre-committed) York St - 6, sq m NIG Investment - Mooted 4-6 Bligh St - 6,137 sq m SC Capital Partners - Early Feasibilty New Addition (Planned/Mooted/Early Feasibility) NB. Dates are Knight Frank Research estimates. Includes select CBD major office supply (NLA quoted) Major tenant precommitment in [brackets] next to NLA # Major refurbishment/backfill ± Macquarie Group has submitted an unsolicited proposal for the sites, which is being considered by the State Government. 3

4 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Dec-7 Dec-8 Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Tenant demand is driven by strong white-collar employment growth Tenant demand in the Sydney CBD continues to gain traction on the back of solid employment growth. Over the 12 months to December 217, a total of 5,682 new office jobs have been created in the Sydney CBD, representing an annual growth rate of 1.9%. This is 68 basis points above the 1 year average growth rate of 1.23% per annum. Looking ahead, employment growth is forecast to accelerate over the next 24 months (Figure 2) indicating a positive outlook for strong demand. Propelling the solid job growth in the CBD last year was the Information Media and Telecommunications sector, which experienced above-average growth of 2.6% over the 217 calendar year. These trends are clearly reflected in the active engagement by co-working tenants in the Sydney CBD over the past 12 months. Recent examples include the inauguration of the Sydney Startup Hub across 17, sq m at York Street in February 218 and Hub Australia s newest location across 4,3 sq m at 223 Liverpool Street. Additionally, WeWork continues its aggressive expansion plan in the Sydney CBD across numerous locations, which are yet to be publicly disclosed. They currently occupy 15,26 sq m across three locations in the CBD and Pyrmont and are set to more than double in size over the next 24 months, according to Knight Frank Research s estimates. The exponential growth of co-working space in the Sydney CBD is showing no signs of slowing with a number of sizable enquires by co-working operators, both local and offshore, yet to be satisfied. Those include Chinese co-working operator Naked Hub, in negotiation for a 1, sq m lease in the CBD, Singapore-based The Great Room seeking up to 4, sq m, Work Inc looking for between 1, and 2,5 sq m and CreativeCubes.Co requiring 1,5 2,3 sq m. The strong leasing activity by co-working operators further reinforces the strength of the TAMI sector (Technology, Advertising, Media & Information). According to Access Economics forecasts, employment in the TAMI sector is projected to grow by 1,98 jobs over the next 12 months. This will see TAMI occupiers overtaking the traditional FIRE sector (Finance, Insurance & Real Estate) as the largest occupiers of space in the Sydney CBD. Lack of available space is a constraint on demand While pent-up demand continued to accumulate, the overall net absorption in the CBD has been constrained by the lack of available stock due to space withdrawals and limited new supply. The net absorption over the twelve months to January was a mere 345 sq m, while the total for the year was 24,827 sq m. The market continues to see the polarisation of demand with the premium segment of the market experiencing the strongest level of take-up with 29,849 sq m of space absorbed over the past six months, as available stock was more adequate. Over the year to January 218, premium net absorption measured 68,45 sq m, more than double the 1 year average of circa 33, sq m per year. On the other hand, the secondary market recorded negative absorption of 7,581 sq m over the past six months. Amidst the rapid depletion of stock and falling vacancy, many B-Grade tenants have become more space efficient or upgraded to the prime market. Vacancy has declined across the board On the back of positive tenant demand amid negative net supply, the overall vacancy rate in the Sydney CBD has declined from 5.8% in July 217 to 4.6% in January 218. This is the lowest level of vacancy since July 28 and 27bps below the 1 year average of 7.3%. Furthermore, the current vacancy in the market is not evenly distributed, but heavily concentrated at the Barangaroo precinct. Exclusive of the Barangaroo towers, the overall vacancy rate in the Sydney CBD is extremely tight at 3.7% as at January 218 based on our calculations. The only time that the market registered a lower vacancy rate (3.6%) was back in January 199, when the PCA began tracking the market. Both prime and secondary markets experienced similar levels of decline in Sydney CBD Office Supply Per six month period (sq m) Source of Employment Growth Annual Change in White-Collar Employment Sydney CBD Vacancy Rate Prime vs secondary (%) - Past decade 2, 2, Projection 12% 15, 15, 1% 1, 1, 8% 5, 5, 6% -5, 4% -1, -5, 2% -15, -1, % GROSS SUPPLY WITHDRAWALS NET SUPPLY TAMI FIRE OTHER TOTAL PRIME SECONDARY OVERALL 4

5 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-19 Jan-2 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-19 Jan-2 SYDNEY CBD OFFICE MARCH 218 RESEARCH vacancy rates. While the prime vacancy rate has declined from 5.8% to 4.9%, the secondary vacancy rate has fallen from 5.6% to 4.2% over the past six months. Within the prime segment, the A-Grade market registered a tighter vacancy rate at 3.7% compared to the Premium-Grade market at 6.9%, albeit this level has almost halved from the peak of 12.5% twelve months ago when the Barangaroo towers were completed. The latest tenant to call Barangaroo home is Cathay Pacific signing up circa 65 sq m at Tower 1, while Facebook is reportedly close to finalising a deal for around 5, sq m in Tower 2. Additionally, the second Barangaroo timber building (C1 site) is reportedly being contemplated by an international co- working operator. Face and effective rents continue to rise The declining vacancy rates have supported further rental growth in the CBD over the past 12 months across all grades, but more so in the secondary market where the space shortage is more severe. The average prime gross face rent has increased by 5.6% over the 217 calendar year to $1,166/sq m ($992/sq m net face). Additionally, prime incentives have declined to between 2-24% on average as at January 218 from above 25% a year ago. As a result, the effective face rental growth was boosted to 8.5% YoY. In the secondary market, the average secondary gross face rent increased by 11.2% YoY to $885/sq m ($749/sq m net). Secondary incentives for full-floor, midrise levels varied between 17% and 2% as at January 218, although incentives for smaller suites are well below 17%. Consequently, the average secondary effective gross face rent has increased by 11.4% to $77/sq m over the past year. Looking forward, Knight Frank anticipates prime and secondary gross face rents to grow by 5.-6.% and 4.-5.% respectively while vacancy is projected to fall below 4.% over the next two years. Sydney CBD Vacancy Rate By Precinct (%) - July Net Absorption & Vacancy Sydney CBD, per six month period ( s sq m, %) Projection 12% 8% 4% % -4% -8% Average Gross Effective Rents Sydney CBD ($/sq m) 1,1 1, Projection % 1. NET ABSORPTION 6 MTHS TO...(m²)-LHS TOTAL VACANCY (%)-RHS PRIME SECONDARY Recent Leasing Activity Sydney CBD Address Precinct NLA (sq m) Term (yrs) Lease Type Tenant Sector Start Date 6 Martin Pl Core 7,2 12 New HDY & NRF Legal Jan George St Core 1,58 5 Renewal BRI Ferrier Accounting Nov George St Core 2,83 1 New Sonic Healthcare Healthcare Oct-18 1 Barangaroo St Walsh Bay 7,765 1 New Origin Energy Energy Jul Sussex St Western c.6, 1 New Dimension Data IT Jul-18 1 Barangaroo St Walsh Bay c.65 U/D New Cathay Pacific Aviation Jul Phillip St Core 2,888 7 New NSW Treasury Corp Finance Jun-18 1 Barangaroo St Walsh Bay 1,82 1 New Morningstar Finance May-18 1 Barangaroo St Walsh Bay 4,939 U/D New ICBC Finance Apr Sussex St Western 1, New Spruson & Ferguson Legal Apr George St Midtown 1,721 1 New Investa Real Estate Apr-18 8 Clarence St Western New/Expansion Liquid Learning Education Apr Clarence St Western New Specialist Recruitment Employment Apr-18 1 Barangaroo St Walsh Bay 1,4 7 New Ferrier Hodgson Finance Mar Liverpool St Midtown 1,661 6 New Evolution Mining Mining Mar Pitt St Core Renewal Guidewire Software IT Mar-18 5

6 Volumes rise on the back of demand from offshore and unlisted funds In line with Knight Frank s expectations, investment volumes in the Sydney CBD picked up in 217, following a decline in 216 due to restricted stock. Total investment volumes jumped by a impressive 28% YoY to reach $4.98 billion. This strong surge in transaction activity can be attributed to the increased number of core assets being put on the market, in conjunction with solid investor demand led by offshore investors and local unlisted trusts. Foreign buyers continued to expand their footprint aggressively in the Sydney CBD market buying more office buildings last year than any other buyer type. In total, offshore buyers acquired $1.98 billion worth of assets in 217, up 24% YoY. They were followed by local unlisted trusts, which purchased $1.2 billion (24% of total) over the year. While unlisted trusts have picked up fewer assets than offshore buyers, they dominated the upper end of the market with big-ticket transactions. Singapore and Hong Kongbased investors dominate cross-border activity Cross-border capital flows have remained undeterred by the sharpening yields and rising property prices in the CBD. Leading the way was Hong Kong and Singaporebased investors, while Mainland Chinese buyers appeared to take a breather. A total of $1.28 billion was poured in the CBD market from Hong Kong and Singapore last year, accounting for more than 65% of the total foreign investment value. Prominent foreign buyers over the year included ARA/Straits Real Estate, Ascendas-Singbridge, PA Realty (a joint venture between Mitsubishi Estate Co & CLSA Real Estate), Early Light International and K Wah International. Further yield compression The strong investor competition for CBD assets continued to see tightening in yields with a further 2 4 basis point compression across the grades over the past 12 months. Prime trophy assets are now regularly trading on sub-5% core market yields with the pool of capital remaining deep. The largest single transaction last year was conducted by AMP Capital Wholesale Office Fund in conjunction with UniSuper, acquiring a 5% stake in the Wynyard Place project (1 Carrington Street) for $898.2 million. The fundthrough deal, to be completed in mid- 22, reflected a core market yield of 4.75%. More than half of the Premiumgrade building has been secured to NAB and Allianz, while there will be a rental guarantee for the remaining vacant areas for up to four years from completion. Another prominent deal was the sale of a 5% share in the MLC Centre (19-29 Martin Place) to Dexus Group for $722.5 million. The 73,14 sq m A-Grade property was transacted on a core market yield of 4.95% and with a WALE by income of 4.8 years. The building has recently gone through an extensive redevelopment of the retail podium. In the secondary market, sustained investor appetite continues to be backed up by offshore capital and opportunistic buyers. Core market yields for secondary assets with five years WALEs currently Recent Sales Activity Sydney CBD Address Price ($ mil) Core Mkt Yield (%) NLA (sq m) $/sq m NLA WALE (yrs) Purchaser Vendor 75 Pitt St 43.5 U/D 2,422 17,857 VP Undisclosed Thai Airways Mar Elizabeth St * 5,974 15, Offshore Investor Private Investor Feb-18 1 York St 25. c ,428 11, Blackstone HNA Group Feb-18 1 Castlereagh St ,432 19,7 2.3 Early Light Blackstone Dec Pitt St ,968 2, PA Realty^ ICPF Dec Elizabeth St ,275 14, Charter Hall REIT Bright Ruby Resources Dec York St ,5 14, Private Investor The Primo I.P. Co Pty Dec-17 1 Barrack St , AEW Capital Bright Ruby Resources Dec-17 2 Hunter St ,852 19, K Wah International TH Real Estate Oct-17 9 Hunter St ,548 12, Investec CorVal Oct Kent St * 1,569 15, Offshore Investor Warwick Sherman Oct-17 5 Pitt St ,873 16, AEW Capital TrustCapital Advisors Sep-17 1 Spring St ,871 19, APPF Centuria Sep-17 1 Carrington St ,8 24,64 c.1. AMP/UniSuper Brookfield Sep-17 Sale Date 6

7 AREIT Developer Offshore Owner Occupier Private Investor Super Fund Unlisted/Syndicate Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 SYDNEY CBD OFFICE MARCH 218 RESEARCH Sydney CBD Sales $1 million+ By Purchaser Type ($m) Sydney CBD Purchaser/Vendor $1 million+ sales CY217 Sydney CBD Yields & Spread Core Market Yields - Prime vs Secondary 7, 6, 5, 4, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5-5 9% 8% 7% 6% bps , -1, -1,5 5% 3 2, -2, -2,5 4% 2 1, -3, 3% 1 2% AREIT GOVERNMENT OWNER OCCUPIER SUPER FUND DEVELOPER OFFSHORE PRIVATE INVESTOR UNLISTED/SYNDICATE BUYERS SELLERS NET PRIME YIELD SPREAD OVER BOND (RHS) PRIME YIELD SECONDARY YIELD range between 5.5% and 6.%, about 4bps lower than a year ago. Nevertheless, B-Grade assets with repositioning potential and shorter WALEs are trading at similar yields to premium assets at sub-5% reflecting repositioning potential. A key example was the $22 million purchase of 1 Castlereagh Street purchased at 4.57% core market yield by Hong Kong-based Early Light International, which also acquired 2 Bridge Street earlier in the year for $335 million (4.73% core market yield). A more recent deal exchanged earlier in 218 was 1 York Street purchased for $25 million by Blackstone from HNA Group. The core market yield was 5.94% have provided early indication for further yield compression this year. Additionally, 299 Elizabeth Street and 75 Pitt Street are reported have been sold on sub-4% initial yields. By number of transactions, there were 27 properties ($1 million+) exchanged in 217. Even though the number of assets transacted has decreased from last year (33), the average deal size increased by 56% YoY to $184 million per transaction. This is reflective of both the increase in the number of prime assets being transacted as well as the rising value in the Sydney CBD. These trends are expected to continue over the next 12 months with volumes projected to continue to rise. More than $664 million worth of assets have already transacted over the first two months of 218, more than double the corresponding period a year ago. Outlook New supply will be relatively constrained between now and late 219, when 6 Martin Place and 275 George Street are scheduled for completion although speculative supply is limited. The overall vacancy rate in the CBD is forecast to trend down towards circa 3.5% over the next two years. SMEs, TAMI (Technology, Advertising, Media and Information) and co-working sectors are expected to be the major drivers of tenant demand growth in the CBD over the coming years. Gross face rental growth over the next two years is forecast to be between 5. 6.% and 4. 5.% p.a. for prime and secondary stock respectively. Growth in prime stock is expected to be strong given the already strong growth and high rental base in secondary stock that is now pushing through to A-Grade stock. Prime and secondary incentives are projected to trend towards 22% and 15% respectively over the next two years, although incentives being offered for new developments over will likely be higher for pre-committing tenants. The leasing market over the next 24 months will see a rise in precommitments deals as landlords seek to secure tenants for the future developments currently under construction. The supply pipeline is expected to gradually pick up beyond 22 with major completions including; Wynyard Place (68,2 sq m 53% pre-committed by NAB & Allianz H2 22), Quay Quarter Tower (QQT) (88,274 sq m 4% pre-committed by AMP Capital H2 22) and Circular Quay Tower (CQT) (circa 55, sq m potentially end of 22 or early 221). Investor demand is expected to remain strong, supported by offshore investors and unlisted funds while secondary assets continue to attract opportunistic buyers and developers. Given the strength of demand and the spread between prime yields and real bond rates still above 4 basis points, we consider that there is still scope for further yield tightening over the next 12 months. However, expectations of a rising interest rate environment will be a major influence on investors demand. 7

8 RESEARCH Ben Burston Group Director, Research & Consulting Ben.Burston@au.knightfrank.com Alex Pham Associate Director, NSW Alex.Pham@au.knightfrank.com Marco Mascitelli Research Analyst, NSW Marco.Mascitelli@au.knightfrank.com CAPITAL MARKETS Ben Schubert Joint Head of Institutional Sales, Australia Ben.Schubert@au.knightfrank.com Paul Roberts Joint Head of Institutional Sales, Australia Paul.Roberts@au.knightfrank.com John Bowie Wilson Head of Commercial Sales, NSW John.Bowiewilson@au.knightfrank.com Dominic Ong Head of Asian Markets Dominic.Ong@au.knightfrank.com OFFICE LEASING Aaron Weir Head of Office Leasing, NSW Aaron.Weir@au.knightfrank.com Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide including developers, investors, funding organisations, corporate institutions and the public sector. All our clients recognise the need for expert independent advice customised to their specific needs. Sydney Industrial Vacancy Analysis February 218 Australian Office Top Transactions CY 217 Student Housing 218 Knight Frank Research Reports are available at KnightFrank.com.au/Research Active Capital 217 Tina Raftopoulos Director, Office Leasing Tina.Raftopoulos@au.knightfrank.com Robin Brinkman Director, Office Leasing Robin.Brinkman@au.knightfrank.com Nick Lau Director, Office Leasing Nick.Lau@au.knightfrank.com Al Dunlop Director, Office Leasing Al.Dunlop@au.knightfrank.com VALUATIONS David Castles National Director David.Castles@au.knightfrank.com Knight Frank 218 This report is published for general information only. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no legal responsibility can be accepted by Knight Frank Research or Knight Frank for any loss or damage resultant from the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not permitted without prior consent of, and proper reference to Knight Frank Research.