Briefing Melbourne CBD Office August 2018

Transcription

1 Savills Research Victoria Briefing Melbourne CBD Office Highlights Tenant demand has been steady and on the back of strong economic indicators, Grade A stock is now recording its lowest vacancy rate in 16 years; Low vacancy is driving further growth in average rents, with growth rates running above long-run averages; Demand for space continues to fuel new development plans, with many of the new projects reporting high or full pre-commitment rates; Following five years of elevated investment capital inflows into Melbourne CBD office assets ($5m+), transaction volumes have surpassed expectations to reach a decade high of $3.127 billion; Institutional and offshore investor appetite remains buoyant and there are signs that new is capital entering the Melbourne office market. A Grade Averages Latest Yr Change Outlook Rental N.F ($/sq m) % Incentives bps Rental N.E ($/sq m) % Yield Market (%) bps IRR (%) bps Capital Values ($/sq m) 10, % Demand & Supply Latest PCP* Vacancy (%) Net Absorb. ( 000 sq m) Stock U/C ( 000 sq m) % of market % committed 45.0 *PCP = Previous Corresponding Period

2 Report Contents Vacancy & Availability 3 Leasing Activity & Demand 4 Sales Activity 6 Supply & Development 8 Rents & Outlook 9 Key Indicators 10 Contacts 10 For our latest national reports, visit savills.com.au/research To join Savills Research mailing list, please research@savills.com.au Executive Summary On the back of strong economic indicators and subsequent occupier demand, particularly from financial services, education for government, property and business services, the market is growing rapidly. This demand has seen elevated absorption levels drive down the technical vacancy rate over the last two years and trigger a new development cycle, which is wellunderway. That pressure, however, is driving net effective rental growth and while incentives are still high relative to the lows of period, they are gradually declining. Low vacancy in Prime is attracting developers of new projects and a number of new pre-commitment leasing deals are being secured. Forward economic indicators continue to provide momentum for business expansions and accommodation upgrades. Tenant demand has been the strongest for A grade space, accounting for almost half of the 65,392 square metres of space absorbed in the last six months. A grade is now recording its lowest vacancy rate in 16 years, sitting at 2.9%, compared to 5.2% at the same time last year. Expansion in the co-working sector, with likes of WeWork, Hub Australia and Creative Cubes continues to be a feature of the market. Following five years of what have been record capital inflows into the CBD office market, the last 12 months has surpassed expectations to reach a decade high of $3.127 billion in office asset transactions ($5m+). Institutional funds and trusts dominated asset acquisitions in the CBD, predominantly in the $100 million+ segment. Cross-border investment remains prominent, with increasing new interest from Europe, Japan and the United States for core opportunities. Yields are at record lows, underpinned by low vacancy rates and strong tenant demand. However, relative to bond rates, office assets in Melbourne still remain very attractive to investors. PCA Summary Table Melbourne CBD (year to Jun-18) Premium A Grade Prime Secondary Total AUS CBD Total Stock ( 000) , , , , ,907.5 Total Vacancy ( 000) ,640.7 Vacancy (%) 4.6 (6.6) 2.9 (5.6) 3.3 (5.8) 4.1 (7.9) 3.6 (6.6) 9.2 (9.2) Net Absorption ( 000) 16.5 (11.7) 77.2 (75.2) 93.6 (86.9) 28.5 (-14.5) (72.4) (170.4) Net Absorption (%) * 2.3 (1.8) 3.6 (4.3) 3.3 (3.6) 2.0 (-0.9) 2.9 (1.8) 0.9 (1.1) Net Additions ( 000) 5.4 (14.9) 27.1 (77.3) 32.5 (92.2) (-14.8) 17.3 (77.4) (283.0) - Stock Additions ( 000) Stock Withdrawals ( 000) Net Additions (%) 0.7 (2.2) 1.2 (4.3) 1.1 (3.7) -1.0 (-0.9) 0.4 (1.9) -0.5 (1.7) Source: PCA / Savills Research (10yr Averages shown in brackets); *As a percentage of occupied stock savills.com.au/research 2

3 Vacancy The Melbourne CBD vacancy rate experienced one of the largest declines of all CBD markets in the six months to June, just behind Brisbane, with the overall vacancy rate declining to 3.6%, down from 4.5% in December This is the lowest recorded vacancy rate since June 2008 and much lower than previously anticipated. The market is coming off several years of elevated net absorption rates underpinned by strong tenant demand, with Melbourne recording the highest net absorption rate of all CBD markets nationally in the six months to June All grades recorded a decline in vacancy over the last six months and the gap between Prime and Secondary space has continued to narrow. That pressure has driven rental growth across both Prime and Secondary throughout the past 12 to 18 months, accompanied by a reduction in incentives over the same period. Historic Vacancy Rate Full Floor Availability by Period 14% Prime Secondary Total 140,000 Premium (sq m) A Grade (sq m) 12% 120,000 10% 100,000 8% 80,000 6% 60,000 4% 40,000 2% 20,000 0% 0 In 6 Mths 6 12 Mths 1 2 Yrs > 2 Years Source: PCA / Savills Research Full Floor Availability In Savills Prime Full Floor Availability Report, the state of the leasing market is assessed in a different manner to most vacancy surveys. The report considers Premium and A grade buildings in the city on a floor-by-floor basis, identifying whole floors competing for tenants - both now and in the future - including those under construction and refurbishment, along with backfill space created by pre-commitment. Compared to July 2017, the number of full floors available has increased from 230 to 239 in July Of the 239 Prime floors vacant, 119 are available for immediate occupation, 15 floors will be available between six and 12 months, 24 between one and two years and 76 floors will become available after two years. There has been an upward trend of available options due to future tenant relocations to pre-committed developments within the market recently. However these options are now declining, coinciding with tightening of vacancy rates in the CBD market. The market for contiguous options is limited, with just 13 Prime buildings offering 5,000 square metre options and seven buildings offering options for a 10,000 square metre tenant. By Grade By Precinct Total Premium A Grade North West North East South West South East Total Prime Floors (No) 1, , Total Prime NLA (sq m) 2,539, ,080 1,546, , ,591 1,196, ,802 Prime Floors Available (No) Prime Full Floor Avail. (sq m) 308,582 52, ,906 51,544 18, ,422 56,887 Prime Full Floor Avail. (%) 12.2% 9.1% 15.0% 15.1% 5.3% 15.2% 9.1% Max Contiguous Floors (No) Max Contiguous Area (sq m) 35,095 7,542 35,095 13,830 14,772 25,008 35,095 savills.com.au/research 3

4 Leasing Activity & Demand In the 12 months to June 2018, Savills identified approximately 320,647 square metres of leasing activity (>1,000 square metres) in the Melbourne CBD office market. While this is slightly down on the same period 12 months prior, leasing volumes are just above the 10-year average. The Western Core and Docklands office precincts accounted for the largest proportion of transactions by volume, accounting for more than 61% of activity. Of the 320,647 square metres identified as leased in Melbourne CBD in the last 12 months, there were two industries that equally dominated leasing activity recently - Finance & Insurance and Government & Community. Government tenants have traditionally been large occupiers, however, on the back of the state s growing status in education, demand has been rising. One of the largest transactions in the last 12 months was the announcement last August that Monash College (University) would be occupying 41,000 square metres in 750 Collins Street. More recently, RMIT University, who had been in the market for some time with a requirement of about 10,000 square metres, confirmed that they had signed a 15-year lease for 10,634 square metres over three floors in 222 Lonsdale Street. RMIT will occupy Sensis backfill space. While leasing activity from Finance & Insurance occupiers has doubled over the last 12 months, it is led by NAB precommitting to lease 65,000 square metres at 405 Bourke Street. The new building is located adjacent their existing office and is expected to be completed in More than half of the leasing transactions recorded were for deals greater than 10,000 square metres, a trend not dissimilar to previous years. More than half of the leasing transactions recorded were for deals greater than 10,000 square metres, a trend not dissimilar to previous years. Prime buildings accounted for the majority of deals in this segment, driven to a large extent by pre-commitment leasing. Pre-commitments have risen significantly over the last two to three years given a lack of existing options for larger tenant requirements, particularly for contiguous space. In addition to NAB s pre-commitment to lease 65,000 square metres, Energy Australia has recently pre-leased 22,000 square metres at Two Melbourne Quarter. Leasing Activity by Precinct (> 1,000 square metres) Civic Spencer Flagstaff Docklands 600,000 Western Core North Eastern Eastern Core 500, , , , ,000 Leasing Activity by Tenant Type (> 1,000 square metres) Govt & Community 31.8% Fin & Ins 31.7% IT & Comm 12.3% Mining 10.5% Prop & Bus Serv 10.0% W'Sale & Retail 3.3% Rec Serv 0.4% Net Absorption vs. Growth in Professional Job Ads 150,000 Annual Net Abs. MEL CBD Prof. Job Ads VIC 50% 130, ,000 25% 90,000 70,000 50,000 0% 30,000 10,000 (25%) (10,000) (30,000) (50,000) (50%) Source: PCA / DOE / Savills Research savills.com.au/research 4

5 Victoria holds the largest year-on-year growth on the eastern seaboard for professional office job advertisements, a clear forward driver of tenant demand. Job advertisements have gained some ground over the last six to 12 months to sit ahead of New South Wales and well-above the national average. Professional Job Advertisement Growth by State (Jun-18) WA 18.3% SA 16.1% TAS 14.9% The strength in job advertisement numbers is reflected in the unemployment rate, which is one of the lowest nationally, and is broadly representative of high level of positive absorption that is currently trending in the CBD market. VIC QLD AUS NSW 8.1% 11.2% 12.1% 13.5% ACT NT 5.7% 6.5% Source: DOE / Savills Research Recent Notable Leases (by Area Leased) Tenant Property Date NLA (sqm) Type Rent Term National Bank of Australia 405 Bourke St, Melbourne Jan-18 65,000 p n.a 12 Monash College 750 Collins St, Docklands Oct-17 41,000 d 520 (Net) n.a. Energy Australia 697 Collins St, Docklands Mar-18 22,000 p n.a n.a. Department of Justice & Regulation and the Carlton Justice Service Centre 50 Franklin St, Melbourne Sep-17 11,500 d n.a 10 RMIT University 222 Lonsdale St, Melbourne Jan-18 10,634 d n.a 15 AMP Capital 699 Collins St, Docklands Oct-17 9,720 p n.a n.a. DTF 2 Lonsdale St, Melbourne Sep-17 8,250 d 610 (Net) 5 GHD 180 Lonsdale St, Melbourne Sep-17 7,200 r 550 (Net) 5 Regus 161 Collins St, Melbourne Sep-17 4,500 d n.a n.a. Domestic Violence Commitee 35 Collins St, Melbourne Sep-17 3,092 d 575 (Net) 5 PEXA 727 Collins St, Docklands Dec-17 2,640 d n.a n.a. WorkSafe Victoria 567 Collins St, Melbourne Feb-18 2,603 d n.a 10 Deutsche Bank 333 Collins St, Melbourne Aug-17 1,894 d 520 (Net) 5 Victoria Institute of Technology 235 Queen St, Melbourne Jun-18 1,885 d n.a 5 Department of Health and Human Services 180 Lonsdale St, Melbourne Sep-17 1,800 d 555 (Net) 5 Mitsui & Co 120 Collins St, Melbourne Oct-17 1,689 r n.a 5 Minister for Finance Victoria 8 Exhibition St, Melbourne Aug-17 1,620 d 520 (Net) 10 Melbourne IT 505 Lt Collins St, Melbourne Sep-17 1,568 d 370 (Net) 5 Google 161 Collins St, Melbourne Sep-17 1,500 d n.a n.a. Vic State Govt. Dept of Treasury & Finance 222 Exhibition St, Melbourne Sep-17 1,327 r 460 (Net) 3 Leasing Types: p = Pre-commitment, d = Direct, s = Sub-Lease, r = Renewal savills.com.au/research 5

6 Sales Activity In the 12 months to June 2018, Savills identified approximately $3.127 billion worth of office transactions (> $5 million) in the Melbourne CBD. On a year-on-year basis, investment volumes have been elevated since June 2014, and although only 6.0% more than the same time last year, are now at a decade high. Investment activity continues to be headlined by assets being exchanged in the $100 million segment, predominantly between Australian institutional owners and foreign investors. Australian funds and trusts were the most dominant purchasers in the last 12 months, accounting for just over half of the transactions (51%), with foreign investors accounting for 38% of acquisitions. Interestingly, while foreign investment into Melbourne office is down on the previous year, investment is in line with the long-run average. In contrast, institutional investment is above average. Throughout the past 10 years, Australian funds and trusts have generally accounted for about 35% of office acquisitions ($5m+) in Melbourne CBD. The rise in the level of investment by institutions recently suggests a change in focus in regards to acquisitions and divestments. Foreign investors dominated divestment capital, accounting for almost 60% of assets being sold ($5m+). The last time this happened was in 2015/16 when Brookfield put more than $1.5 billion worth of office assets to the market. Late last year, Singaporean group TrustCapital sold five office assets nationally, including three in Melbourne. 850 Collins Street ($156.1m) and 575 Bourke Street ($140.2m) were purchased by PA Realty, and 469 La Trobe Street ($160.5m) was acquired by AMP Capital. In December, ISPT purchased a 50% share of 405 Bourke Street development from Brookfield for circa $400 million and more recently, TH Real Estate sold out of their 50% stake in 699 Bourke Street to Morgan Stanley for $102 million. While the yield compression cycle has been running for some time, there are signs that the rate of compression is beginning to slow, with no change in average A grade yields since September However, on a rollling yearon-year basis, as at June 2018, average A grade yields are showing a compression of 30 basis points, down from 5.50% in June Sales Activity by Price (> $5 million) $3,500m $5m $50m $50m $100m >$100m $3,000m $2,500m $2,000m $1,500m $1,000m $500m $0m Vendor & Purchaser Type (> $5 million) Vendors Purchasers 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fund Trust Developer Owner Occupier Government Syndicate Foreign Investor Private Investor Other Yield Spread to Bond & IRR Melbourne CBD 10yr Bond Rate Average Melbourne CBD (Grade A Yield) Average Melbourne CBD (Grade A IRR) savills.com.au/research 6

7 Capital values in Melbourne CBD as at June 2018 are estimated to range from $8,000 to $12,000 per square metre for Grade A buildings and between $6,000 and $10,000 per square metre for secondary grade buildings. Average capital values for A grade properties have risen 5.3% on a year-on-year basis, as at June Capital Value ($/sq m) vs. Market Yield 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Capital Value MEL CBD Market Yield (RHS) 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% Recent Notable Sales (by Sale Price) Property Price ($m) Date NLA Yield Type $/sq m 697 Collins St (Two Melbourne Quarter), Melbourne Mar-18 50,000 n.a n.a 11, Bourke St, Melbourne (50.0%) * Dec-17 61,500 n.a n.a 13, Collins St, Melbourne (50.0%) * Jul-17 49,000 n.a n.a 12, Collins St, Docklands Nov-17 28, e 10, La Trobe St, Melbourne Nov-17 19, r 8, Collins St, Docklands Nov-17 17,337 n.a n.a 9, Bourke St, Melbourne Nov-17 16,152 n.a n.a 8, Flinders St, Docklands Feb-18 23, r 5, La Trobe St, Docklands Aug-17 12, e 8, Bourke St, Docklands (50.0%) Apr-18 18,644 n.a n.a 10, Harbour Esplanade, Docklands Jun-18 7, r 12, Franklin St, Melbourne Dec-17 11, e 7, Bourke St, Melbourne May-18 8, r 8, Collins St, Melbourne Apr-18 2, r 16, Bourke St, Melbourne Apr-18 3,339 n.a n.a 8, Russell St, Melbourne Jul-17 2,591 n.a n.a 8, Elizabeth St, Melbourne 9.62 Mar n.a n.a 17,179 ; Yield Types: i = Initial, r = Reported, e = Equated, v = Vacant, dev = development; *approximate price listed savills.com.au/research 7

8 Supply Around 450,000 square metres in new supply is expected to be added to Melbourne s CBD office market over the next three years. The current development cycle has delivered more than 350,000 square metres of new supply since 2015, including the recently completed 664 Collins Street. While the outlook for demand is expected to continue to drive significant rental growth, incoming new supply and the impact of backfill in 2020/21 may place upward pressure on the headline vacancy rate and temper rental growth in those years. 664 Collins Street reached practical completion in June. Last year, Mirvac sold a 50% stake in the tower to Morgan Stanley for $138 million to fund the development costs. At the time, the tower was 62% pre-leased to ExxonMobill and Pitcher Partners. Fujitsu was secured late 2017, and earlier this year AGL committed to the balance of the tower. Net Supply by Year (square metres) 300,000 Historic Net Additions Savills Forecast 15yr Avg 250, , , ,000 50,000 (50,000) / PCA The first of three commercial towers being developed in the precinct to be known as Melbourne Quarter, located between Flinders and Collins Street, is due to reach practical completion shortly. The tower, which is leased to Arup, AMP and Lendlease, was acquired by Australian Prime Property Fund (APPF) (managed by Lendlease) in The second tower was jointly acquired under a development agreement by APPF and First State Super in March 2018 for $550 million. The final building in the Collins Square development, Tower 5 (40,000sq m) is also nearing completion, with the first tenant expected to move in shortly. Charter Hall started construction on the $600 million Wesley Place development at 130 Lonsdale Street in November. The site, which is located in the North Eastern precinct, is expected to house super funds Cbus and Telstra Super as anchor tenants, joining Uniting Church. Vanguard has recently pre-committed to 10,500 square metres in the circa 55,000 square metre tower. savills.com.au/research 8

9 Development Map The table below details the major upcoming and planned development projects in the Melbourne CBD. Building Address Dev Stage NLA % Comm Exp. Comp Precinct Tenants Tower 5, Collins Square UC 40, Docklands NBN Co, Transurban, Grant Thornton One Melbourne Quarter, 695 Collins St UC 26, Docklands Arup, Lendlease, AMP 839 Collins St UC 38, Docklands ANZ, WeWork 271 Spring St UC 15, Eastern Core Australian Unity 311 Spencer St UC 65, Docklands Vic Police 130 Lonsdale St UC 55, Civic 140 Lonsdale St PA 15, Civic Cbus Vanguard, Telstra Super, Uniting Church 477 Collins St UC 55, Western Core Deloitte, Norton Rose 447 Collins St UC 49, Western Core 80 Collins St UC 43, Eastern Core King & Wood Mallesons, HWL Ebsworth, Gadens, Minters Macquarie Group, Savills, McKinsey 180 Flinders St UC 20, Western Core John Holland 405 Bourke St UC 63, Spencer NAB 1000 LaTrobe St PA 33, Docklands Two Melbourne Quarter, 697 Collins St UC 50, Docklands Energy Australia ; UC = Under Construction, DA = Development Approved, EP = Early Planning, PS = Plans Submitted, PA = Plans Approved savills.com.au/research 9

10 Rents As at June 2018, net face rents in Melbourne CBD typically range from $545 to $830 per square metre per annum for Premium grade, $520 to $640 per square metre per annum for A grade, and $455 to $485 per square metre per annum for B grade. On average net face rents have increased 8.8% over the 12 months to June On a net effective basis, Average A grade rents are showing a 9.0% increase over the 12 months to June 2018, while average Premium net effective rents are up 13%. Net Net Effective Rents Rents by by Grade Grade ($/sq ($/sq m) m) 600 Premium Grade A Grade B Average B Grade net effective rents are also at historically high levels, having risen 11% on average over the last 12 months. Average net effective rents across Premium, A and B grade buildings in Melbourne CBD are now at their highest in more than a decade. Rental growth is generally aligned with lower Prime vacancy rates since 2014/15 as well as declining incentives. Average Prime net incentives have decreased from a high of 31% in 2014 to approximately 25% as at June Source: Source: Savills Savills Research Research Net Face & Net Effective Rents as at Jun-18 ($/sq m) 800 Net Face Net Effective Incentive (Net Basis % RHS) Premium A Grade Secondary 22.5 Outlook Melbourne is coming off several years of elevated net absorption rates underpinned by significant demand within the CBD and Fringe markets. Current drivers and sentiment show demand remains prolific although low vacancy could potentially temper net absorption levels over the same period. That low vacancy, together with highly competitive demand for Prime office space, is likely to continue to put upward pressure on net effective rents in the short-to-medium term. The market has witnessed strong rental growth throughout the past 12 to 18 months, accompanied by a reduction in incentives, with Prime, in particular, experiencing significant increases to face rental levels. It is highly likely the rate of growth will remain above the long-run average at least until the next delivery of supply in Capital investment inflows into Melbourne office market are at a decade-high, indicative of the demand for Prime office on the eastern seaboard. The weight of capital is dynamic, with offshore groups and Australian institutional investors focused on core opportunities as well as the development upside. Yields are at record lows and while there are still signs of compression through the last 12 months this now appears to be slowing. That said, there still remains scope for further yield compression as investment capital prices in expectations of future net operating income growth. savills.com.au/research 10

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12 Melbourne CBD Key Indicators (Q2-18) Premium A Grade B Grade Low High Low High Low High Rental - Gross Face ($/sq m) 735 1, Rental - Net Face ($/sq m) Incentive Level Net Rental - Net Effective ($/sq m) Outgoings - Operating ($/sq m) Outgoings - Statutory ($/sq m) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Typical Lease Term Yield - Market (% Net Face Rental) IRR (%) Cars Permanent Reserved ($/pcm) Cars Permanent ($/pcm) Office Capital Values ($/sq m) 10,000 15,000 8,000 12,000 6,000 10,000 NB: All rents equivalent to whole floor mid-rise Key State Office Contacts Research Katy Dean +61 (0) kdean@savills.com.au Research Christopher Bantoy +61 (0) cbantoy@savills.com.au Valuations Ben Koops +61 (0) bkoops@savills.com.au CBD & Metropolitan Sales Clinton Baxter +61 (0) cbaxter@savills.com.au Capital Transactions James Girvan +61 (0) jgirvan@savills.com.au Asset Management Sandra Hendry +61 (0) shendry@savills.com.au Office Leasing Mark Rasmussen +61 (0) mrasmussen@savills.com.au Project Management David Hayden +61 (0) dhayden@savills.com.au The Savills Research & Consultancy team has years of experience, and is supported by our extensive agency, property management and valuation professionals. For national-level consultancy or subscription requirements please contact: Capital Strategy & Research Chris Freeman +61 (0) cfreeman@savills.com.au Savills is a leading global property service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. Trusted since 1855, we have extensive experience across the Asia Pacific, with over 50 offices, and in Australia, we have over 800 staff focused on meeting all your property needs. This information is general information only and is subject to change without notice. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Savills will not be liable for any omissions or errors. Savills will not be liable, including for negligence, for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential losses or damages arising out of our in any way connected with use of any of this information. This information does not form part of or constitute an offer or contract. You should rely on your own enquiries about the accuracy of any information or materials. All images are only for illustrative purposes. This information must not be copied, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Savills. savills.com.au/research 12