Economic Report. Queensland. December Savills Research. Queensland - Key Economic Indicators. Highlights

Transcription

1 Savills Research Economic Report Queensland December 2018 Highlights After five years of stagnant growth Queensland's economy made a turn around in 2018 as a result of a resurgance in the mining sector and the Commonwealth Games. Interstate migration boosted population growth as Sydney and Melbourne residents look for more affordable housing solutions. An increase in job advertisements has been spurred by hiring in the mining and tourism sectors. Investors moving away from office assets in Sydney and Melbourne in search for steady income streams have driven growth in the Brisbane office market. Queensland - Key Economic Indicators Date AUS Qld. GDP Growth** Sep (2.6) 3.2 (1.7) Population Growth Mar (1.6) 1.7 (1.8) Inflation Sep (2.0) 1.8 (2.1) Employment Growth Oct (1.6) 1.1 (1.2) Unemployment Rate Oct (5.6) 6.1 (5.9) Retail Trade Sep (3.7) 2.2 (3.1) Job Ad Growth Total Oct (-4.6) 5.2 (-7.2) House Price Growth Jun (4.8) 2.1 (2.1) Attached Price Growth Jun (4.2) 0.0 (0.8) Earnings Growth May (318.6) 3.3 (3.5) **On a rolling annual basis

2 Savills Research Economic Report - Queensland Report Contents Executive Summary 2 Treasury Growth Forecast Table 3 State Summary Table 3 Gross State Product 4 Population & Retail Trade 5 Employment 6 Residential Property 8 Property Performance Metrics 10 National Key Economic Indicators 12 Shrabastee Mallik smallik@savills.com.au Director Research & Consultancy For our latest national reports, visit savills.com.au/research To join Savills Research mailing list, please research@savills.com.au Key Contacts 14 Executive Summary The Queensland economy is probably the most diversified state economy in Australia, benefitting from solid performance in the agriculture, resources, construction, tourism, manufacturing and services sectors. Though the mining downturn in late 2012 proved to have a dampening effect on the state economy, 2018 was the year of the Queensland economic turnaround. After 5 years of stagnant growth, Queensland rebounded on the back of a resurgence in the mining sector, increasing exports, the Commonwealth Games and rising employment - although construction activity in the residential sector was softer than the record activity in Whilst employment growth was above trend over the past 12 months, record high rates of interstate migration into Queensland meant that a growing labour force kept the unemployment rate stubbornly high at 6.2% (as at October 2018). Looking forward, substantial public investments into infrastructure projects, with much of this being directed at improving transport hubs in prime industrial precincts across the state, as international trade rises at rapid rates. Growth projections made by HSBC Trade Connections forecasts Australia s trade to grow nearly 130% by 2025, almost double the global rate. As in other states, real wage growth (above inflation) is likely to eventuate from the end of this year and continue to rise over the next 3 years, helping to buoy the retail sector, which will also be aided by growing numbers of tourists that are forecast to visit Queensland as the AUD likely continues to depreciate. Queensland Treasury Growth Forecast Table Outcome Forecasts Projections FY-17 FY-18 FY-19 FY-20 FY-21 FY-22 Real Gross State Product Growth* (%) Employment (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Wage Price Index (%) Nominal Gross State Product (%) Population Growth (%) Source: Queensland Treasury * SFD = State final demand is the estimate obtained by summing government final consumption expenditure, household final consumption expenditure, private gross fixed capital formation and the gross fixed capital formation of public corporations and general government; GSP = Gross State Product, which is State Final Demand + Net Exports (as defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics). 2

3 December 2018 Ec. Growth (Year to Sep-18) Retail Trade (Year to Sep-18) Population (Year to Mar-18) Inflation (Year to Sep-18) 3.2% 2.2% 1.7% 1.8% State Summary Table Economic Growth Latest 10yr Avg SFD / GDP Growth ($) Sep b (-2.0) b (-2.7) b (1.1) b (3.3) b (3.2) Population Population Growth Mar m (1.3) 4.80m (1.2) 4.88m (1.6) 4.96m (1.6) 4.99m (1.7) Employment Employment Growth Oct k (0.3) 48.1k (2.1) -21.2k (-0.9) 112.3k (4.8) 26.4k (1.1) Full Time Emp Growth Oct k (-1.3) 27.3k (1.7) -26.0k (-1.6) 59.2k (3.7) 29.7k (1.8) Part Time Emp Growth Oct k (4.2) 20.8k (3.0) 4.8k (0.7) 53.1k (7.3) -3.2k (-0.4) Unemployment Rate Oct Consumer Price Index Inflation (%) Sep Retail Trade Total Growth (%) Sep Food (%) Sep Department Stores (%) Sep Household Goods (%) Sep Clothing (%) Sep Cafes (%) Sep Job Advertisements Total Growth Oct ,339.6k 0,345.2k (1.6) 0,352.1k (2.0) 0,375.0k (6.5) 0,394.5k (5.2) Office Oct k (-4.0) 85.7k (6.8) 90.9k (6.1) 93.9k (3.3) 102.7k (9.3) Industrial Oct k (-6.2) 67.9k (-3.0) 68.7k (1.2) 82.3k (19.8) 90.6k (10.0) Retail Oct k (0.9) 20.9k (0.0) 21.1k (1.2) 20.1k (-5.0) 19.1k (-4.8) Residential Property Prices Detached House (%) Jun Attached Dwellings (%) Jun Development Approvals Total Residential ($) Oct k (20.4) 49.86k (23.7) 49.64k (-0.5) 41.80k (-15.8) 41.77k (-0.1) Residential Houses ($) Oct k (16.6) 23.35k (5.7) 24.19k (3.6) 25.27k (4.5) 25.23k (-0.1) Office ($) Oct b (-60.3) 0.64b (-8.1) 0.86b (33.9) 0.69b (-19.7) 0.69b (-0.6) Industrial ($) Oct b (-33.5) 0.80b (-15.2) 1.05b (31.1) 0.97b (-8.3) 1.07b (11.0) Retail ($) Oct b (9.7) 1.80b (4.7) 1.66b (-7.6) 1.90b (14.6) 1.29b (-32.3) Source: ABS/DOE/RBA/Savills Research; 10yr Averages shown in brackets; *Median prices quoted savills.com.au/research 3

4 Savills Research Economic Report - Queensland GSP Looking at performance nationally, by industry, the Health Care industry was once again the best performing industry, with an annual growth rate of 6.5% in the 12 months to September 2018 (on a rolling annual basis), followed by Mining (4.8%), Construction (4.2%) and Professional & Technical Services (3.9%). Gross State Product (Annual Growth to FY-18) Queensland s economy grew at a rate of 3.4% over FY-18 (in GSP terms), well above the 1.8% recorded over FY-17. We are likely to see ongoing gains for the state s economy as a renewal in global demand for Australian resources and complementary infrastructure spending in the state saw several mining projects recently been given the green light to begin construction on new mines. These include MacMines Australia s $6.78 billion thermal coal mine in Queensland s Galilee Basin (which is anticipated to contribute $951 milion per year to the state s GSP during construction and a further $1.5 billion per annum when it starts production). China s ongoing trade war with the US appears to be having a further positive effect on demand for Australian resources, with China redirecting demand for LNG to Australia, making it our 2nd largest export for the year to date. Queensland s state final demand grew by 3.3% (on a rolling annual basis) in the year to September 2018, driven by a resurgence in the mining sector and a lower AUD boosting tourism numbers. 17.0% 6.9% 5.5% 5.3% 5.1% 4.6% 4.5% 4.2% 3.9% 3.4% 1.2% -0.3% -1.4% Mining & Utilities Agriculture Business Services Health / Edu / Rec Manuf / Logistics / Cons. Food & Accomm Wholesale & Retail Trade Finance & Insurance Dwellings Total Other IT / Comms Public Admin 4

5 December 2018 Population & Retail Trade Population Growth Queensland was the prime beneficiary of droves of Sydney residents shifting interstate driven away by rising housing unaffordability and rising cost of living. In the 12 months to March 2018, 24,000 residents shifted interstate into the sunny state. A still notable differential in median house prices in Brisbane (compared to Sydney - $386,000; and even Melbourne - $203,000) means that we will likely see this trend continue in the short to medium term. This is further compounded by employment opportunities increasing considerably in Brisbane over the past 18 months. Increasing levels of international tourism (attracted by a depreciating AUD) are likely to stimulate the retail sector in Queensland more than in any other state, providing employment opportunities to casual and transient workers. Retail Trade Growth Retail trade in Queensland grew 2.2% over the year to September Supermarket and Food Retailing led all other sub-categories, with growth rates of 4.2% and 4.3% respectively. Looking at recent credit card and debit card transaction data from the Commonwealth Bank, spending in Queensland was the highest nationally with sales growing 14.3% in the year to October This forward looking indicator bodes well for retail turnover growth in the months to come. Further, in tourism reliant states such as Queensland, a lower AUD is likely to boost retail spending levels over the remainder of ,000 Natural Increase Overseas Migration Interstate Migration 120, % 8.0% 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, % 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% savills.com.au/research 5

6 Savills Research Economic Report - Queensland Queensland s unemployment rate remained stubbornly high at 6.2%, driven by an increase in the number of residents looking for work, which was pushed higher by record high rates of net interstate migration. Employment Full Time & Part Time After record rates of job creation in Queensland over 2017, employment growth tempered somewhat, with total employment growth recorded at 1.1% in the 12 months to October Positively, full-time employment growth (1.8%) offset the decline in part-time employment (-0.4%). However, the unemployment rate in Queensland remained stubbornly high at 6.2%, due to a growing workforce, as record numbers of people moved interstate to Queensland. However, significant developments (such as the North Queensland Stadium, the Singapore defence deal and tourism developments such as the new SeaLink ferry Terminal and Hilton DoubleTree hotel proposal in Townsville) and new mining projects in the state are likely to boost employment growth considerably from 2019 onwards. 140,000 F/T Employed P/T Employed 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - (20,000) (40,000) (60,000) 6

7 December 2018 Job Advertisements by Sector (5yr Indexed) Total job advertisements in Queensland grew by 5.2% over the year to October 2018, with growth in job advertisements in the Office (9.2%) and Industrial (10.0%) sectors greatly outperforming their 5 year CAGRs (4.2% and 3.9% respectively). Job advertisements in the Retail sector went backwards over the same period, falling 4.8%, in line with the trend over the recent past. Overall growth in job advertisements was spurred by a hiring boom in the mining and tourism related sectors. Whilst there was a downturn in construction activity in residential housing, this was largely offset by ongoing commercial, industrial and infrastructure works. Redevelopment of Brisbane s Trade Coast industrial precinct has seen a significant boost in construction jobs, increasing overall growth in job requirements for the Industrial sector. 130 Job Ads - Total 125 Job Ads - Office Job Ads - Industrial 120 Job Ads - Retail Employment by Industry (May-18) The Public Sector, Education & Recreation sector made up a larger proportion of Queensland s labour market (30.7%) compared to the national average (29.5%), as well as the Construction sector (9.6% compared to a national average of 9.0%). The Services industry (made up of Professional & Technical, Finance & Insurance and Other Services) was notably smaller in Queensland (14.0%) than the comparable national figure (18.5%). Australia s e-commerce sector, whilst in its infancy stages, is growing at a rapid rate and with growth projections for international trade in Australia almost double the global average over the next 5 years it is clear that Queensland s Logistics and Manufacturing sectors are set to grow considerably over this period (given Queensland s proximity to major ports). Public, Edu & Rec (30.7%) Retail Trade (10.2%) Construction (9.6%) Prof & Tech Services (7.3%) Manufacturing (7.2%) Hospitality (7.1%) Logistics (5.1%) Other Services (4.0%) Admin & Support (3.8%) Wholesale Trade (2.7%) Agriculture (2.7%) Fin & Ins Services (2.7%) Mining (2.6%) Rental, Hire & R/E (1.7%) Utilities (1.5%) IT & Telco (1.1%) Source: DOE / Savills Research savills.com.au/research 7

8 Savills Research Economic Report - Queensland Residential Property Residential Property Prices (10yr Indexed) Median house prices in Brisbane were recorded at $525,700, reflecting an annual growth rate of 2.1% in the 12 months to June 2018 (on latest available ABS data), whilst median prices for attached dwellings remained flat over the same period, recorded at $398,000 in June 2018). Moderating prices for attached dwelling was primarily as a result of an oversupply of apartments in Brisbane in the Looking forward, it is likely that population growth (driven by record rates of interstate migration) will help demand to come in line with supply. Interestingly, the residential property markets in Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast were stronger as a result of relative affordability. Volume Sales (Annual Growth to Jun-18) In line with the national trend, sales volumes in Brisbane for the residential market were down more than in non- Metropolitan areas of Queensland, for both freestanding houses and attached dwellings. Restrictions on townhouse (a part of attached dwellings) construction in Brisbane will help to counter the effects of an oversupplied market, aiding growth and sales in existing housing. According to forecasts made by NAB, Brisbane is set to lead the nation in terms of capital appreciation in the next 3 years, as investors focus their attention away from Sydney and Melbourne s apparently over-inflated residential property markets. 130 House Price (Brisbane) Apartment Price (Brisbane) 120 House Price (Non-Metro QLD) Apartment Price (Non-Metro QLD) % -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% % -10.0% -8.1% % -14.0% -16.0% -12.2% House Vol (Brisbane) -13.3% Apartment Vol (Brisbane) House Vol (Non- Metro QLD) -11.5% Apartment Vol (Non-Metro QLD) Residential Statistics (Houses) by State (Jun-18) METROPOLITAN NON-METROPOLITAN STATE Median Price* Sale Volume* Median Price* Sale Volume* DAs* DAs / 100** AUS 693 (-5.7%) 171,871 (-11.7%) 417 (0.2%) 130,780 (-3.4%) 119,473 (2.5%) 0.89 (0.83) NSW 945 (-12.1%) 44,264 (-14.2%) 470 (1.1%) 49,983 (-4.1%) 29,754 (1.7%) 0.84 (0.68) VIC 732 (-1.7%) 54,712 (-16.4%) 353 (4.4%) 27,809 (2.1%) 39,572 (8.1%) 1.16 (1.01) QLD 526 (2.1%) 33,903 (-12.2%) 430 (-3.2%) 34,037 (-8.1%) 25,234 (-0.1%) 0.84 (0.81) WA 500 (-1.0%) 5,860 (-0.8%) 310 (-4.6%) 5,860 (-0.8%) 12,416 (-11.4%) 0.67 (0.98) SA 468 (2.1%) 24,240 (3.4%) 275 (0.7%) 6,385 (4.2%) 8,055 (-0.1%) 0.70 (0.69) ACT 690 (2.6%) 4,362 (-7.8%) n.a n.a 1,315 (36.0%) 1.58 (1.22) ; *12 month growth rates in brackets; **10yr Averages shown in brackets 8

9 December 2018 DAs per 100 vs. DAs (split) Following record high rates of residential development approvals for attached dwellings in Brisbane throughout 2016, approvals for both attached and detached dwellings remained largely flat over the 12 months to October 2018 as supply begins to meet demand. This was following a spurt of interstate migration over the past 12 months boosting population growth in the so-called sunny state. With regulations imposed on high-density development, there has been growing focus on detached housing developments, accounting for over 60% of total residential DAs in the 12 months to October With continued strong projections for population growth in Queensland, demand for housing accommodation should continue to meet supply in the short to medium term. 60,000 Houses Approvals Per 100p Attached Dwellings , , , , , Residential Statistics (Attached Dwellings) by State (Jun-18) METROPOLITAN NON-METROPOLITAN STATE Median Price* Sale Volume* Median Price* Sale Volume* DAs* Total (%) AUS 556 (-3.8%) 102,002 (-16.5%) 384 (0.3%) 36,898 (-10.6%) 103,223 (-1.1%) 46% NSW 710 (-6.6%) 34,878 (-20.3%) 390 (-3.1%) 11,491 (-15.2%) 37,091 (-12.7%) 55% VIC 550 (1.3%) 34,706 (-18.1%) 280 (2.9%) 4,800 (-4.7%) 34,793 (15.5%) 47% QLD 398 (0.0%) 11,224 (-13.3%) 385 (1.3%) 17,621 (-11.5%) 16,533 (0.0%) 40% WA 410 (0.0%) 6,942 (0.4%) 210 (-19.2%) 635 (15.5%) 4,864 (-18.7%) 28% SA 374 (-2.9%) 8,403 (-5.0%) 182 (-11.2%) 1,097 (8.5%) 4,115 (-3.9%) 34% ACT 430 (-3.6%) 3,890 (-21.7%) n.a n.a 5,315 (31.5%) 80% ; *12 month growth rates in brackets savills.com.au/research 9

10 Savills Research Economic Report - Queensland Property Performance Metrics -10% -15% Office Sector - Historical Annual Returns Total returns for the Brisbane CBD office market were recorded at 9.8%, down on the 15 year CAGR of 11.0%, whilst total returns for the Brisbane Fringe office market were higher, at 11.4%, in line with the 15 year CAGR. Renewed investor interest saw an uptick in capital returns for both markets, with this trend likely to continue as swathes of Singaporean, Korean and European investors express interest in acquiring office assets in Queensland s major office markets, after record high rates of capital appreciation in Sydney and Melbourne over the past 3 years drive investors north. Income returns have remained steady and are providing the impetus for both domestic and offshore investors to acquire commercial property with healthy income returns. 20% Brisbane Fringe Brisbane CBD 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Industrial Sector Returns 10yr Indexed Brisbane s industrial markets returned 7.8%, with income returns of 6.0%. A growing ecommerce market in Australia, with ongoing storage and distribution facility requirements, in conjunction with the state s economic turnaround means that we are already seeing increased interest in Brisbane industrial assets. A forecast $46 billion in infrastructure projects in the pipeline that will complement transport hubs will continue to drive demand in Brisbane, particularly in the Trade Coast and Southern precincts. Infrastructure projects are providing the impetus for developers and institutional land owners to bring speculative development back to the forefront, recognising the recent lift in leasing demand, particularly in well-located locations close to major arterial roads. 280 NSW VIC QLD SA Source: MSCI IPD / Savills Research Source: MSCI IPD / Savills Research 10

11 December 2018 Australian Property - Performance Metrics Compound Return Standard Deviation Sharpe Ratio Equities Correlation 1yr I 5yr I 10yr I 20yr 5yr I 10yr I 20yr 5yr I 10yr I 20yr 5yr I 10yr I 20yr Aus Property 11.1% I 11.6% I 8.9% I 10.5% 1.3% I 5.0% I 4.7% 6.35 I 0.86 I % I 17% I 36% - Office 14.4% I 12.5% I 9.0% I 10.1% 2.0% I 5.9% I 5.6% 4.35 I 0.74 I % I 12% I 28% - Retail 7.5% I 10.0% I 8.4% I 10.8% 1.1% I 4.0% I 4.5% 6.36 I 0.96 I % I 24% I 42% - Industrial 11.6% I 12.8% I 9.3% I 10.9% 2.2% I 6.3% I 5.2% 4.33 I 0.73 I % I 19% I 33% Bonds 5.3% I 5.8% I 6.6% I 6.2% 6.7% I 8.0% I 6.8% 0.31 I 0.42 I % I -69% I -59% A-REITS 13.3% I 12.8% I 7.0% I 5.8% 9.7% I 21.1% I 18.2% 1.01 I 0.09 I % I 75% I 72% Aus Equities 13.5% I 8.0% I 7.8% I 8.9% 8.6% I 16.1% I 14.8% 0.78 I 0.13 I 0.31 n.a Source: Savills analysis of MSCI / IPD Data; As at September 2018 Retail Sector Returns (State Comparisons) Performance in Australia s retail sector continues to weigh down on total returns for the overall retail property sector. Whilst investor demand for retail assets remained strong through the majority of 2018, a muted retail sector kept income returns and thus total returns for the sector low. The retail sector in Queensland returned 5.4% over the year to September Neighbourhood centres continued to outperform all other sub-categories, on the back of continued strength in non-discretionary retailing. Ongoing challenges for the department store sector clearly translated into below average returns for Sub- Regional and Super & Major Regional centres nationally. 20% NSW VIC QLD WA SA Returns across Sub-Regional and Regional centres have fallen consistently over the past 12 quarters, in line with Department Store and Clothing & Footwear retailing facing muted growth over the same period. Still, despite the negativity toward the sector, retail property looks to greatly exceed the performance of Australian equities in % 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Source: MSCI IPD / Savills Research savills.com.au/research 11

12 Savills Research Economic Report - Queensland National Key Economic Indicators NORTHERN TERRITORY WESTERN AUSTRALIA SFD: 0.3% Inflation: 1.2% Retail Trade: -0.8% Pop. Growth: 0.8% SOUTH AUSTRALIA SFD: 3.1% Inflation: 1.8% Retail Trade: 3.7% Pop. Growth: 0.7% SFD: 4.2% Inflation: 2.7% Retail Trade: 5.6% Pop. Growth: 1.0% 12

13 December 2018 SFD: 3.2% Inflation: 1.8% Retail Trade: 2.2% Pop. Growth: 1.7% QUEENSLAND SFD: 3.5% Inflation: 2.0% Retail Trade: 3.5% Pop. Growth: 1.4% NEW SOUTH WALES SFD: 3.7% Inflation: 2.5% Retail Trade: 3.9% Pop. Growth: 2.1% VICTORIA SFD: 4.4% Inflation: 2.2% Retail Trade: 5.9% Pop. Growth: 2.2% TASMANIA savills.com.au/research 13

14 Savills Research Economic Report - Queensland December 2018 Methodology Figures written in this report may not coincide with numbers published by entities such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics, as a result of differing calculation methods (such as on a rolling year basis, consolidating numbers from a number of entities, etc.). Key State Contacts Commercial Sales Robert Dunne +61 (0) rdunne@savills.com.au Office Leasing John McDonald +61 (0) jmcdonald@savills.com.au Statutory Valuations Neil Murphy +61 (0) nmurphy@savills.com.au Project Management Ken Ng +61 (0) kng@savills.com.au Hotels Tony Bargwanna +61 (0) bargwanna@savills.com.au Industrial Callum Stenson +61 (0) cstenson@savills.com.au Asset Management Shannon Ormond +61 (0) sormond@savills.com.au Retail Investments Peter Tyson +61 (0) ptyson@savills.com.au Valuations Lawrence Devine +61 (0) ldevine@savills.com.au Capital Transactions Peter Chapple +61 (0) pchapple@savills.com.au The Savills Research & Consultancy team has years of experience, and is supported by our extensive agency, property management and valuation professionals. For national-level consultancy or subscription requirements please contact: Capital Strategy & Research Shrabastee Mallik +61 (0) smallik@savills.com.au Savills is a leading global property service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. Trusted since 1855, we have extensive experience across the Asia Pacific, with over 50 offices, and in Australia, we have over 800 staff focused on meeting all your property needs. This information is general information only and is subject to change without notice. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Savills will not be liable for any omissions or errors. Savills will not be liable, including for negligence, for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential losses or damages arising out of our in any way connected with use of any of this information. This information does not form part of or constitute an offer or contract. You should rely on your own enquiries about the accuracy of any information or materials. All images are only for illustrative purposes. This information must not be copied, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Savills. savills.com.au/research 14