Briefing Melbourne Industrial January 2018

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1 Savills Research Victoria Briefing Melbourne Industrial Highlights Prime industrial rents rose in the South East and the Eastern precincts; whilst rents remained stable elsewhere over the last 12 months; The investment activity was 56% lower than the previous 12 months, tempered significantly by lower levels of blue-chip assets offered for sale; Prime average market yields have tightened over the year, and the current compression cycle is likely to continue with an investor focus on specialised assets; Prime Averages (Mel-West) Latest 12mo Diff Outlook Rental N.F. ($/sq m) 74 n/c Incentives (%) 22.5 n/c Yield Market (%) bps IRR (%) bps Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,113 n/c Land Values ($/sq m) 198 (+9.3%) Industrial supply estimated completions over 2017 are the lowest in four years and also below the five-year average.

2 Report Contents Executive Summary 2 Leasing Activity & Demand 4 Rents and Development 6 Sales Activity 8 Infrastructure & Outlook 9 Key Indicators 10 Key Contacts 10 Associate Director Research Monica Mondkar mmondkar@savills.com.au For our latest national reports, visit savills.com.au/research To join Savills Research mailing list, please research@savills.com.au Executive Summary Melbourne industrial market has been long profiting from the Port of Melbourne, the largest maritime hub for automotive and general cargo in the country with its volume of container movements supported by the various transportation and infrastructure projects delivered over the years. Furthermore, Melbourne has solidified its position as the largest industrial city in Australia with more than 30% share of nation s freight market evolving it into an aviation gateway. The impact of recent auto-manufacturing closures is expected to be offset by other exports, especially the food sector over the coming years. Victoria accounted for 25% of Australian food and fibre exports over , and this share has been rising over the last five years. Similar to the food and fibre industry, e-commerce has been rising on the back of growth in online retail. This structural shift in retail spending is increasing rapidly with technology and population growth at its helm. Trade exports and e-commerce has continued to rise in the state, led by the growth in key industrial drivers; Transport and logistics, Wholesale and Distribution. Victoria has been benefitting from its strongest economic indicators in the country, while forward indicators point to continued strong performance and have provided the impetus for business expansions, consolidations and accommodation upgrades. Major transport infrastructure projects currently under development and in the pipeline are further expected to improve connectivity within the industrial precincts while expanding capacity in the Melbourne s transport network. Melbourne s position as Australia s largest industrial city is expected to be augmented by these projects. Estimated supply levels for 2017 were lowest since 2013 and also below the five-year average. New construction is likely to be led by tenant pre-commitments and owner-occupier developments with speculative development remaining limited in the near term. However, lower stock levels are likely to provide a boost to rental growth through reduction of incentives. Investment levels are lowest since 2013, also below the 10-year average. The lower sales volume in the past 12 months points to a limited number of investment opportunities offered since mid-2016, rather than the tapered investor appetite. Yields have continued to compress, but a wide yield spread still exists between Melbourne s average industrial market yield and RBA s 10-year bond yield. With interest rates likely to remain unchanged over the year, current yield compression cycle is likely to continue. Investor demand has a particular focus on the specialised assets; cold storage and fulfilment centres, boosted by Victoria s population growth and food exports. Melbourne Markets Summary - Prime Warehouse Precincts N.F. Rent ($/sq m) Market Yield (%) IRR (%) Cap. Value ($/sq m) Land Value ($/sq m) MEL - West 74 (n/c) 6.25 (-25 bps) 7.38 (-25 bps) 1,113 (n/c) 198 (+9.3%) MEL South Eastern 83 (+3.1%) 6.25 (-25 bps) 7.50 (-50 bps) 1,300 (+2.0%) 350 (+37.3%) MEL City Fringe 120 (n/c) 6.25 (-25 bps) 7.50 (-38 bps) 1,900 (+0.7%) 950 (n/c) MEL - East 85 (+3.0%) 6.50 (-25 bps) 7.38 (-25 bps) 1,350 (n/c) 305 (+14.2%) MEL - North 75 (n/c) 6.50 (-25 bps) 7.63 (-26 bps) 1,100 (n/c) 275 (+19.6%) ; Note: 12 month change shown in brackets, land values reflect serviced & benched sites (3,000-5,000 sq m). n/c = no change savills.com.au/research 2

3 Leasing Activity & Demand Savills Research recorded 770,936 square metres (>2,000 square metres) of leasing activity from 84 deals in Melbourne in the 12 months to December This is 17% lower than the previous 12 months by comparison. However, the take-up levels over the past year were 11% above the 10 year average of 696,765 square metres. The West and the South East recorded highest levels of industrial absorption, accounting for 46% and 34% respectively. The gross take-up in the West has been highest since December 2015, with Transport and Logistics now accounting for 60% of the total leased space in the precinct. The most recent notable leases from the Transport and Logistics sector in the Western precinct included Simplot Australia s (20,725 square metres) precommitment, and Albi Imports direct lease (27,903 square metres), both in Truganina The Transport and Logistics was the dominant sector in overall leasing activity (43%), followed by Wholesale at 24% and Construction, Mining & Agriculture at 11% of the total take-up. The Construction, Mining & Agriculture industry has been rising over the last two years, with gross absorption from the sector at a historical high, largely emanating from the sub-sector of Construction. The low-interest rate environment has supported housing construction activity over recent years. Also, Melbourne s status as the world s most liveable city and relative affordability compared to Sydney continues to be a draw card for overseas migration further elevating the housing boom. Although dwelling construction is anticipated to slow-down over the medium term, this is expected to be offset by growth in infrastructure projects, in turn sustaining demand from construction trade. Of the total industrial stock leased in the last 12 months, 66% of the leases were large tenant requirements sized above 10,000 square metres, measuring 505,052 square metres of gross take-up. Prime grade stock accounted for the majority of the absorption amounting 526,881 square metres of industrial space leased over the past year. Direct - existing leases accounted for 56% of reported industrial transactions, while 24% of gross take-up was from pre-commitments in the 12 months to December The most notable direct lease over the year was Amazon s lease (24,387 square metres) at 29 National Drive, Dandenong South, while key pre-commitments include Stanley Black and Decker (21,722 square metres) and Clifford Hallam (21,200 square metres), both takingup industrial facilities at Frasers The Key Industrial Park in Keysborough. Leasing Activity by Precinct 1,000,000 North South East West East City Fringe 900,000 1,000, ,000 North South East West East City Fringe 900, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 Leasing Activity by Industry Type Transport & Logistics - 332,389sqm Transport &- 43.1% Logistics - 332,389sqm % Wholesale - 181,874sqm % Wholesale - 181,874sqm % Construstion, Mining & Agri - 87,530sqm Construstion, % Mining & Agri - 87,530sqm % Manuf/Engineering - 85,401sqm Manuf/Engineering % - 85,401sqm % Health / Community Services / Education Health /- Community 64,635sqm Services - 8.4% / Education - 64,635sqm - 8.4% IT & Technology - 13,119sqm - 1.7% IT & Technology - 13,119sqm - 1.7% Leasing Activity by Lease Type 1,000,000 Direct - Existing Precommit Renewal Prelease Direct - New 900, , , , , , , , ,000 savills.com.au/research 3

4 Victoria s growth in industrial job advertisements has been consistently positive over the last two years with industrial job advertisements in November 2017 at their highest level since February Although the growth rate is moderating recently, a number of jobs advertised in the state over the year to November 2017 were second highest amongst all the states accounting for 24% of the national job ads in the industrial sector. NAB Index in November 2017 revealed improving business conditions, which were well above the long-run average since the beginning of series in This lift in conditions was led by the construction industry, likely spurred by public investment in infrastructure and high levels of residential construction. As a result, Savills Research expects a positive outlook to continue for Melbourne industrial market in the near to medium term. Logistics Job Advertisements (12 mo Growth % to Nov-17) SA WA QLD AUS ACT 9.93 VIC 8.15 TAS 6.53 NSW 4.34 NT (0.61) Source: DOE / Savills Research Top 15 Leases (by Area Leased) Property Tenant Date Area Leased (sq m) Type Rent Term 9 Shiney Dr, Truganina Albi Imports Oct-17 27,903 d-n South Centre Rd, Tullamarine The Workwear Group Apr-17 26,517 d-e M2 Industry Park, Dandenong South Amazon Jul-17 24,387 d-e Hudson Crt, Keysborough Stanley Black and Decker Jul-17 21,722 p n.a n.a. 17 Hudson Crt, Keysborough Clifford Hallam (CH2) Jul-17 21,200 p n.a n.a. West Park Ind Estate, Derrimut Silk Contract Logistics Jun-17 20,337 d-e n.a 6 West Industry Park, Truganina CS Logistic Solutions Sep-17 20,213 d-e n.a n.a. 2 Keon Pde, Keon Pk Orora Sep-17 19,527 r n.a 15 Cnr National Dr & Bayliss Rd, Dandenong South Dulux Group (Australia) Pty Ltd Jun-17 19,402 p n.a 10 Altona Logistics Park, Altona North Storage & Material Handling Group May-17 16,229 d-e South Centre Rd, Tullamarine Cosmetics Company Jul-17 15,000 p Hume Hwy, Somerton Westpot Waterproofing & Tiling Apr-17 15,000 d-e South Centre Rd, Tullamarine Direct Couriers Aug-17 14,082 d-e /30 Saintly Drive, Truganina Ceva Aug-17 14,055 d-e Western Port Hwy, Cranbourne West CIMC Vehicle Australia and Marshall Lethlean May-17 13,290 p ; Leasing Types: p = Pre-commitment, d-n = Direct New, d-e = Direct Existing, pl = Pre-Lease, s = Sub-Lease, r = Renewal savills.com.au/research 4

5 Rents As at December 2017, average net face rents on average typically range from $74 to $85 per square metre per annum for a Prime grade; whilst average Secondary grade rents range from $55 to $65 per square metre per annum. Average net face rents in the East and the South Eastern precincts increased by 3% on the back of a reduction of available industrial zoned land. While in the other precincts net face rents remained stable in the past 12 months. Melbourne industrial incentive levels differ by precincts and building by building, with Prime grade incentives ranging from 15% to 22.5% on average. Whilst, Secondary grade incentives are slightly higher, ranging from 17.5% to 25% on average. Although net face rents have not changed considerably over last year, incentives have declined over the 12 months to December 2017 period, resulting in a slight rise in net effective rents. Average Prime Net Face Rents by Precinct MEL - West MEL - City Fringe 130 MEL - South Eastern MEL - East MEL - North Supply / Industrial Development Savills Research estimates 364,452 square metres of new supply was completed over the year 2017, with a third of the industrial space previously pre-committed by tenants. Current supply levels are lowest since 2013 and also below the five-year average (447,295 square metres). A low-interest-rate environment has led to a spur of development activity since While adding a significant amount of stock this has tempered the rental growth. However, in the short-term a decline in the amount of new supply is expected to reduce the available prime space, tapering incentives and uplifting the net effective rents. Looking forward, Savills Research expects the new supply cycle to commence by means of the design and construct and pre-commitment activity, while speculative construction will remain limited over the course of In continuing the trend from the past 12 months, the Western precinct accounted for the majority of the new construction in 2017, driven by strong demand from transport and logistics users. Isuzu Trucks, National Tiles and Anbar saw their pre-committed distribution and logistics facilities completed by the end of the year 2017, all in the West. In addition, the refrigeration facilities for New Cold Storage and Natures Dairy have recently been built; whilst, the extension of Laverton Cold Storage is underway within the precinct. Completed Development and Pipeline (sq m) 700, , , , , , ,000 0 Completed Under Construction *Source: Cordells / Savills Research; includes new/addition speculative, pre-commitment, owner occupier development types savills.com.au/research 5

6 Sales Activity Melbourne s industrial transactions (>$2 million) amounted to a total of $1.05 billion in the 12 months to December 2017 from 67 assets. The total sales achieved in the past year were 56% below $2.37 billion that was transacted in the preceding 12 months across 114 industrial properties. The past 12 months have been characterised by a lower volume of sales activity since 2013, also 7% below the 10 year average of $1.13 billion. There were a number of significant investment portfolios sold at the end of 2015 which heightened overall investment activity through the first half of 2016 translating into a higher volume of sales relative to the current year. Foreign Investors, mostly in their pursuit of higher-yielding assets (compared to other overseas markets) and Australia s safehaven status buoyed much of this activity. The decline in investment levels in the last 12 months indicates a lack of assets offered for sale since mid-2016, rather than the diminishing investment appetite. Depreciation of the Australian dollar from its peak in March 2013, has boosted investment in Australian commercial property from foreign investors over the recent years, with this trend still evident. Foreign investors remained the most dominant purchaser type, accounting for 33% of all buyers followed by Funds at 17% in the 12 months to December Key Fund acquisitions over the past year include Centuria Property Funds purchase of the Browns Road in Noble Park ($37 million), Goodman s acquisition of Westall Road, Springvale ($22.4 million) and Dexus buying 90 Mills Road, Braeside ($50.55 million). Majority of the Foreign investors such as Blackstone Group, Deutsche Australia, and Ascendas, were largely involved in the national portfolio purchases. Significant vendor activity in the last 12 months involved Propertylink s divestments - 90 Mills Road, Braeside and 45 Fulton Drive, Derrimut ($36 million). Key transaction of the year included Growthpoint sold Wellington Road, Mulgrave for $90.75 million. Yield compression has been evident over the last three years with a growing amount of capital chasing Prime investment properties, especially with blue-chip tenants and long WALE. Although the current market yields remain at record low levels, this coincides with historically low interest and 10- year bond rates, incentivising investors to seek a healthy return on property investment. Sales Activity by Price $2,500m $2m - $50m $50m - $100m >$100m $2,000m $1,500m $1,000m $500m $0m Vendor & Purchaser Composition Vendors Vendors Purchasers Purchasers 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 80% 100% 100% Fund Fund Trust Developer Owner Occupier Government Syndicate Owner Occupier Syndicate Foreign Investor Private Investor Other Foreign Investor Private Investor Other Yield Spread to Bond & IRR Melbourne 10yr Bond Rate Average Prime Yield Yield Average Prime Prime IRR IRR 10% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% % % Source: RBA/Savills savills.com.au/research 6

7 Market yields in the Melbourne industrial market, as at December 2017, are estimated to range between 5.75% and 7.00% for Prime buildings, and between 6.75% and 8.50% for Secondary grade buildings. Yields for prime assets have tightened by 30 basis points on average, whilst secondary yields compressed by 110 basis points on average over the past 12 months. Capital values have generally increased over the last three years. Amid a low-interest rate environment, driven by investors yield chase, some stabilisation of capital values was realised in Capital values as at December 2017 are estimated to range from $900 to $1,600 per square metre for Prime grade buildings, and between $550 and $900 per square metre for Secondary grade buildings, with average capital values for both Prime and Secondary grade assets rising marginally over the previous year. Prime Average Market Yield by Precinct 10.0 MEL - West MEL - City Fringe MEL - South Eastern MEL - East 9.0 MEL - North Note: Yields, rents and capital value range and averages exclude City Fringe precinct Top Sales Property Type Price ($m) Date GLA Yield Type $/sq m Wellington Rd, Mulgrave Warehouse Nov-17 68, r 1, Dunmore Dr, Truganina Warehouse May-17 16, e 3, Mills Rd (Kingston Distribution Centre), Braeside Warehouse Jun-17 40, e 1, Browns Rd, Noble Park Warehouse Jun-17 43, r Fulton Dr, Derrimut Warehouse Jan-17 10, e 3, Frankston Dandenong Rd (Nissan HQ), Dandenong South Warehouse Oct-17 32,430 n.a n.a 1, Toll Dr & Toll Dr, Altona North Warehouse Mar-17 21, e 1, Northcorp Bvd, Broadmeadows Warehouse Jan-17 22, e 1, Jones Rd, Brooklyn Warehouse Jun-17 4, e 5, Foxley Crt, Derrimut Warehouse Mar-17 22, e 1, Geelong Rd, Brooklyn Warehouse Apr-17 12, e 1, & Whiteside Rd, Clayton South Warehouse May-17 24, e Boundary Rd, Laverton North Warehouse Jan-17 20, e 1, Westall Rd, Springvale Warehouse May-17 18, e 1, , & Marshall Crt, Altona Warehouse May-17 9, e 1,902 ; i = Initial, r = Reported, e = Equated, v = Vacant, dev = development savills.com.au/research 7

8 Infrastructure There are several major transport infrastructure projects under development and in the pipeline across Victoria which will profit industrial markets by improving connectivity, reducing travel times and expanding the transportation network. Major transport initiatives currently in progress include the upgrade of Monash freeway and the widening of CityLink Tulla freeway. Upon completion in 2018, both the projects will expand the capacity of the freeways and increase connectivity between the industrial precincts, as well as freight and logistics hubs at the airport and the Port. The West Gate Tunnel project will provide a second river crossing on Maribyrnong and an alternative to the West Gate Bridge, with direct access to Port Melbourne. Also, the State Government has announced $1.8 billion public-private partnership to upgrade about 700 kilometres of arterial road network through the Western suburbs, which will further augment industrial demand in the West. Recently, the Victorian State Premier announced the North East link project to complete the missing link in the Melbourne s ring road network. Key Infrastructure Project Summary - Melbourne Project Est. Cost Status Completion CityLink-Tulla Widening $1.28bn U/C 2018 Monash Freeway Upgrade $400mn U/C 2018 Level Crossing Removal $6.88 bn Ongoing West Gate Tunnel $5.5bn Contracted Mid-2019 Western Roads Upgrade $1.8bn Contracted 2021 North East Link $16.5bn Announced n.a. Inland Rail - Melbourne to Brisbane $10.9 bn Planning Murray Basin Rail Project $440mn Ongoing 2019 ; U/C = Under Construction. While the business case is yet to be finalised, the early cost estimate is $16.5 billion with construction commencement in Additionally, the Federal Government has committed $9.3 billion funding to build a 1,700 kilometres freight rail network between Brisbane and Melbourne while connecting the regional areas along the eastern seaboard. Balance of the project cost will be funded by public-private partnership.. Outlook Victoria leads Australia in population growth and economic growth rates. Forward-looking drivers point to sustained industrial demand resulting from all of the economic metrics, particularly strong full-time jobs growth and industrial job advertisements. In addition, positive business conditions (at record high levels for the series) are likely to translate into positive leasing activity over the next 12 months. Industrial occupiers expanding or consolidating with a focus on flight to quality into new built (mostly pre-committed) industrial space will remain a feature in the market., Prime grade net face rents are likely to remain stable in the near term despite the recent spike in supply. However, sustained tenant demand may start to taper incentives and uplifting net effective rents. This is likely to be on a building-by-building basis and more pronounced in tightly held industrial markets such as East and South East. The total transaction volumes may remain lower in near term compared to the heightened activity in recent years ( ), largely impacted by lower levels of blue-chip investment opportunities offered on-market. Purchaser appetite continues to remain strong for prime industrial properties amid a low-interest rate and low yield environment. Investment appetite is expected to increase for specialised assets; cold storage, and fulfilment centres. Amazon s arrival to Australia is expected to set the trend towards 30 minutes to same day delivery, with other retailers soon following the move, making last-mile fulfilment centres a necessity for the e-commerce industry. Savills Research expects the current compression cycle to continue underpinned by low-interest rates. The $10.9 billion inland rail line between Brisbane and Melbourne will further benefit the last mile delivery and drive a considerable amount of future industrial development centring a freight and logistics theme. The new supply cycle in Melbourne is expected to involve major developers and third-party logistics players participating in the development of intermodal facilities and logistics hubs in the key locations along the mooted rail route. Approximately 16,000 jobs will be created at the peak of construction, with 700 jobs ongoing once Inland Rail is operational. The project is expected to increase GDP by $16 billion over the 10-year delivery period, and the first 50 years of operation. savills.com.au/research 8

9 Melbourne Industrial Key Indicators (Q4-2017) West (Altona, Derrimut, Laverton North, Sunshine, Truganina) Prime Secondary Low High Low High Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Incentives (%) Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 900 1, Land Values 3,000-5,000 sq m ($/sq m) Land Values 10,000-50,000 sq m ($/sq m) Land Values 10 ha and above ($/sq m) 220 (high) 175 (low) 200 (high) 150 (low) 150 (high) 80 (low) South Eastern (Braeside, Carrum Downs, Dandenong, Keysborough, Moorabbin) Prime Secondary Low High Low High Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Incentives (%) Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,100 1, Land Values 3,000-5,000 sq m ($/sq m) Land Values 10,000-50,000 sq m ($/sq m) Land Values 10 ha and above ($/sq m) 400 (high) 300 (low) 225 (high) 180 (low) 140 (high) 110 (low) City Fringe (Port Melbourne) Prime Secondary Low High Low High Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Incentives (%) Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,300 2, ,200 Land Values 3,000-5,000 sq m ($/sq m) Land Values 10,000-50,000 sq m ($/sq m) 1,100 (high) 800 (low) 800 (high) 600 (low) savills.com.au/research 9

10 East (Mulgrave, Clayton, Rowville, Scoresby, Notting Hill, Knoxfield) Prime Secondary Low High Low High Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Incentives (%) Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,100 1, Land Values 3,000-5,000 sq m ($/sq m) Land Values 10,000-50,000 sq m ($/sq m) 425 (high) 325 (low) 250 (high) 180 (low) North (Broadmeadows, Epping, Somerton, Thomastown, Tullamarine) Prime Secondary Low High Low High Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Incentives (%) Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 900 1, Land Values 3,000-5,000 sq m ($/sq m) Land Values 10,000-50,000 sq m ($/sq m) Land Values 10 ha and above ($/sq m) Key State Industrial Contacts Research Monica Mondkar +61 (0) mmondkar@savills.com.au Industrial Investments Kosta Filinis +61 (0) kfilinis@savills.com.au Valuations Ross Smillie +61 (0) rsmillie@savills.com.au Asset Management Howard Chapman +61 (0) hchapman@savills.com.au 350 (high) 160 (low) 300 (high) 180 (low) 175 (high) 130 (low) Industrial North & West Greg Jensz +61 (0) gjensz@savills.com.au Project Management David Hayden +61 (0) dhayden@savills.com.au Industrial South & East Lynton Williams +61 (0) lwilliams@savills.com.au The Savills Research & Consultancy team has years of experience, and is supported by our extensive agency, property management and valuation professionals. For national-level consultancy or subscription requirements please contact: Capital Strategy & Research Chris Freeman +61 (0) cfreeman@savills.com.au Savills is a leading global property service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. Trusted since 1855, we have extensive experience across the Asia Pacific, with over 50 offices, and in Australia, we have over 800 staff focused on meeting all your property needs. This information is general information only and is subject to change without notice. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Savills will not be liable for any omissions or errors. Savills will not be liable, including for negligence, for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential losses or damages arising out of our in any way connected with use of any of this information. This information does not form part of or constitute an offer or contract. You should rely on your own enquiries about the accuracy of any information or materials. All images are only for illustrative purposes. This information must not be copied, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Savills. savills.com.au/research 10

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