Briefing Melbourne Industrial July 2018

Transcription

1 Savills Research Victoria Briefing Melbourne Industrial Highlights Industrial land values saw double-digit growth across most markets, with the South East and Eastern precincts experiencing the largest growth in values over the last 12 months; Average Prime rents in the South East and East have risen more than 5.0%, underpinned by strong growth in the land values recently; Average Prime market yields have continued show signs of compression, tightening a further 40 bps over the year; Prime Averages (Mel-West) Latest 12mo Diff Outlook Rental N.F. ($/sq m) 74 n/c Incentives (%) 22.5 n/c Yield Market (%) bps IRR (%) 7.38 n/c Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,300 (+16.9%) Land Values ($/sq m) 263 (+38.2%) Following three years of elevated investment volumes on the back of a number of large-scale asset sales, deal activity is showing signs of normalising.

2 Report Contents Executive Summary 2 Leasing Activity & Demand 4 Rents and Development 6 Sales Activity 8 Infrastructure & Outlook 9 Key Indicators 10 Key Contacts 10 For our latest national reports, visit savills.com.au/research To join Savills Research mailing list, please research@savills.com.au Executive Summary Melbourne industrial market has long profited from the Port of Melbourne, the most significant maritime hub for automotive and general cargo in the country with its volume of container movements supported by the various transportation and infrastructure projects delivered over the years. Melbourne continues to solidify its position as the largest industrial city in Australia, with more than a 30% share of the nation s freight market, evolving it into an aviation gateway. The impact of recent auto-manufacturing closures is expected to be offset by other exports, especially the food sector over the coming years. Victoria accounted for 25% of Australian food and fibre exports over , and this share has been rising over the last five years. Similar to the food and fibre industry, e-commerce has been rising on the back of growth in online retail. This structural shift in retail spending is increasing rapidly with technology and population growth at its helm. Trade exports and e-commerce has continued to rise in the state, led by the growth in key industrial drivers; Transport and logistics, Wholesale and Distribution. Victoria has been benefitting from its strongest economic indicators in the country. Forward indicators point to continued strong performance and have provided the impetus for business expansions, consolidations and accommodation upgrades. Major transport infrastructure projects currently under development and in the pipeline are expected to improve connectivity within the industrial precincts while expanding capacity in Melbourne s transport network. Melbourne s position as Australia s largest industrial city is expected to be augmented by these projects. New construction is likely to be led by tenant pre-commitments and owner-occupier developments, with speculative development remaining limited in the near term. However, lower stock levels are likely to provide a boost to rental growth through reduction of incentives. The lower sales volume in the past 12 months points to a limited number of investment opportunities offered since mid- 2016, rather than the tapered investor appetite. Yields have continued to compress, but a wide yield spread still exists between Melbourne s average industrial market yield and the RBA s 10-year bond yield. With interest rates expected to remain unchanged over the year, current yield compression cycle is likely to continue. Investor demand has a particular focus on the specialised assets; cold storage and fulfilment centres, boosted by Victoria s population growth and food exports. Melbourne Markets Summary - Prime Warehouse Precincts* N.F. Rent ($/sq m) Market Yield (%) IRR (%) Cap. Value ($/sq m) Land Value ($/sq m) MEL - City Fringe 120 (n/c) 5.88 (-63 bps) 7.50 (-38 bps) 2,125 (+11.8%) 950 (n/c) MEL - West 74 (n/c) 6.13 (-13 bps) 7.38 (n/c) 1,300 (+16.9%) 263 (+38.2%) MEL - North 75 (n/c) 6.13 (-38 bps) 7.38 (-25 bps) 1,350 (+22.7%) 288 (+25.0%) MEL - East 90 (+5.9%) 5.88 (-63 bps) 7.38 (n/c) 1,625 (+20.4%) 463 (+51.6%) MEL - South Eastern 88 (+6.1%) 5.88 (-50 bps) 7.38 (-13 bps) 1,450 (+11.5%) 450 (+50.0%). NB: 12 month change shown in brackets; n/c = no change. * Savills metrics includes marketable commercial industrial buildings within defined precinct boundaries, generally inclusive of an improved building area of between 1,000 and 20,000 square metres. Land values reflect serviced & benched sites (3,000-5,000 sq m). savills.com.au/research 2

3 Leasing Activity & Demand Savills Research recorded 789,638 square metres (>2,000 square metres) of leasing activity from 82 deals in Melbourne in the 12 months to June This is 5% lower than the previous 12 months by comparison. However, the takeup levels over the past year were 11% above the 10-year average of 712,913 square metres. The West and the South East recorded the highest levels of industrial absorption, accounting for 45% and 30% respectively. The Transport and Logistics sector now accounts for more than 60% of the total leased space in the Western precinct. Recent notable transactions in the West include Vida XL s (15,524 square metres) direct lease at 169 Australis Drive in Derrimut, and Hickory Group s pre-commitment (21,733 square metres) at Leakes Road in Laverton North, both in the Melbourne s West. Overall, Transport and Logistics dominated leasing activity across Melbourne s industrial precincts, accounting for almost half of all transactions (48%). Construction, Mining & Agriculture account for 15% of overall activity and Wholesale, 15%. Take-up by the Construction, Mining & Agriculture industry has been rising over the last two years, with gross absorption from the sector now at a historical high, largely emanating from the sub-sector of Construction. This trend is noted in Victorian dwelling approvals recently, which, as at April 2018, is showing the highest yearon-year growth rate of all states and territories, strongly outperforming the Australian average. Melbourne s status as the world s most liveable city and comparative affordability to Sydney has been appealing to the overseas and interstate migrants boosting the housing construction in recent years. Although the housing boom is likely to retract over the medium-term, any softening in this trend is expected to be offset by growth in infrastructure projects, in turn sustaining demand from construction trade. Of the total industrial stock leased in the last 12 months, 73% of the leases were large tenant requirements sized above 10,000 square metres, measuring 573,540 square metres of gross take-up. Prime grade stock accounted for the majority of the absorption amounting 453,060 square metres of industrial space leased over the past year. Direct - existing leases accounted for 56% of reported industrial transactions, while direct-new and precommitments accounted for 15% and 16% of gross take-up in the 12 months to June The most recent direct lease was WWL s lease (9,288 square metres) at 197 Fitzgerald Drive in Laverton North, while key precommitments include Simplot Australia (20,725 square metres) at 41 Foundation Road in Truganina and Hickory Group s pre-commitment in Truganina. Leasing Activity by Precinct 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 MEL West MEL City Fringe MEL South East MEL East MEL North Leasing Activity by Industry Type Leasing Activity by Lease Type 1,000, , , , ,000 Transport & Logistics 388,198sqm 48.0% Wholesale 107,563sqm 13.3% Construction, Mining & Agri 101,738sqm 12.6% Manuf/Engineering 87,667sqm 10.8% Health / Community Services / Education 64,811sqm 8.0% Undisclosed 34,070sqm 4.2% IT & Technology 14,349sqm 1.8% Direct Existing Precommit Renewal Prelease Direct New savills.com.au/research 3

4 Victoria s growth in industrial job advertisements has been consistently positive over the last two years. The year-onyear growth rate is now at its highest level since November 2011 and well-above its 10-year average. In terms of actual job advertisement numbers, Victoria is the second highest amongst all the states, accounting for 24% of the national job ads in the industrial sector. NAB Index in May 2018 revealed business conditions eased from the previous month, however remain favourable over the long-term average. Conditions eased in most industries in May, except transport and utilities and, retail. Victorian conditions remain strongest amongst all the states in the country. As a result, Savills Research expects a positive outlook to continue for Melbourne industrial market in the near to medium-term. Logistics Job Advertisements (12 mo Growth % to May-18) WA 30.3% NT 23.0% QLD 19.8% VIC 14.8% AUS 14.1% ACT 12.8% SA 8.3% NSW 6.0% TAS 3.9% Source: DOE / Savills Research Top 15 Leases (by Area Leased) Property Tenant Date Area Leased (sq m) Type Rent Term 9 Shiney Dr, Truganina Albi Imports Oct-17 27,903 d-n 54 7 M2 Industry Park, Dandenong South Amazon Jul-17 24,387 d-e Leakes Rd, Laverton North Hickory Group Feb-18 21,733 p n.a Hudson Crt, Keysborough Stanley Black and Decker Jul-17 21,722 p n.a n.a 17 Hudson Crt, Keysborough Clifford Hallam (CH2) Jul-17 21,200 p n.a n.a. 41 Foundation Rd, Truganina Simplot Australia Nov-17 20,725 p n.a 7 West Industry Park, Truganina CS Logistic Solutions Sep-17 20,213 d-e n.a n.a 2 Keon Pde, Keon Pk Orora Sep-17 19,527 r n.a 15 Unit 1, 169 Australis Dr, Derrimut Vida XL (HB Commerce) Apr-18 15,524 d-e 75 3 Melbourne Airport Business Pk, Tullamarine Cosmetics Company Jul-17 15,000 p Hume Hwy, Somerton Westpot Waterproofing & Tiling Apr-17 15,000 d-e South Centre Rd, Tullamarine Direct Couriers Aug-17 14,082 d-e /30 Saintly Drive, Truganina Ceva Aug-17 14,055 d-e 78 2 The Key Industrial Park, Keysborough Silvan Jul-17 11,948 p n.a n.a Link Dr, Campbellfield Kitchen Innovations Sep-17 10,441 d-e ; Leasing Types: p = Pre-commitment, d-n = Direct New, d-e = Direct Existing, pl = Pre-Lease, s = Sub-Lease, r = Renewal savills.com.au/research 4

5 Rents As at June 2018, average net face rents typically range from $74 to $90 per square metre per annum for Prime grade; while average Secondary grade net face rents range from $55 to $70 per square metre per annum. Average net face rents in the East and the South Eastern precincts increased by 6% on the back of a reduction of available industrial zoned land. While in the other precincts net face rents remained stable in the past 12 months. There is a clear differential between Prime and Secondary incentives and to some extent, differences are a buildingby-building proposition. On average Prime grade incentives average between15% and 22.5%, while, Secondary grade average incentives are slightly higher, sitting between 17.5% and 25%. Average Prime Net Face Rents by Precinct MEL West MEL City Fringe 130 MEL South Eastern MEL East MEL North Supply / Industrial Development Savills Research estimates 389,900 square metres of new supply was completed over the year Forecast supply levels over 2018 are estimated to total 380,000 square metres, slightly below the previous year s supply. A low-interest-rate environment has led to a notable increase in development activity since In the short-term a decline in the amount of new supply is expected to reduce the available prime space, potentially resulting in a tapering incentives and an uplift in net effective rents. Looking forward, Savills Research expects the new supply cycle to commence through design and construct and pre-commitment activity, while speculative construction will remain limited over the course of In continuing the trend from the past 12 months, the Western precinct will account for the majority of the new construction in 2018, driven by strong demand from transport and logistics users. Simplot Australia, Ceva Logistics and Efflog Logistics will be occupying their pre-committed distribution and logistics facilities built over the year 2018, all in the West. In addition, Woolworths distribution centre in the South East precinct has recently been completed; also the largest industrial facility delivered in Completed Development and Pipeline (sq m) 700,000 Completed Under Construction 600, , , , , ,000 0 Source: Cordells / Savills Research; includes new/addition speculative, pre-commitment, owner occupier development types savills.com.au/research 5

6 Sales Activity Melbourne s industrial transactions (>$5 million) reached $1.03 billion in the 12 months to June While overall transaction volumes are below the record $2.2 billion reported June 2017 financial year, the downward trend follows almost four years of elevated volumes, especially in the $100 million + segment. There were many noteworthy portfolio sales over the period of which heightened overall investment activity through the first half of 2017, which underpinned a higher volume of sales relative to the year to June Foreign Investors, mostly in their pursuit of higher-yielding assets (compared to other overseas markets) and Australia s safehaven status buoyed much of this activity. Primarily, Foreign Investors such as Cache Logistics, Morgan Stanley, and Blackstone Group were involved in the national portfolio purchases. The decline in investment levels in the last 12 months is indicative of a lower number of large-scale assets and portfolios being offered for sale compared to that period. In the 12 months to June 2018, foreign investors accounted for 29% of industrial investment activity ($5m+) by value and although down from the previous year s high of 53%, remains well-above what they have averaged throughout the past 10-years (14% share). Private Investors have been actively seeking investment opportunities, accounting for 21% of investment volumes in the year to June 2018, generally benefitting from the low-interest rate environment. Domestic investors (Funds & Trusts) totalled 17% of the total sales volume over the same period. Key transactions over the year included Lendlease APFF s purchase of the Dohertys Road in Altona North for $38.15 million, the largest Fund acquisition over the past year; while, Growthpoint Properties divested Wellington Road in Mulgrave to a private buyer for $90.75 million. Significant vendor activity in the last 12 months involved Blackstone s national portfolio sale to Cache Logistics, which included five Victorian assets. In another key transaction, Abacus Property sold 169 Australia Drive in Derrimut for $34 million. Yield compression has been evident over the last three years with a growing amount of capital chasing Prime investment properties, especially with blue-chip tenants and long WALE. Although the current market yields remain at record low levels, this coincides with historically low interest and 10- year bond rates, incentivising investors to seek a healthy return on property investment. Sales Activity by Price $2,500m $5m $50m $50m $100m >$100m $2,000m $1,500m $1,000m $500m Yield Spread to Bond & IRR Melbourne 12% 10% Vendors Purchasers 8% 6% 4% 2% % $0m Vendor & Purchaser Composition 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fund Trust Developer Owner Occupier Government Syndicate Foreign Investor Private Investor Other 10yr Bond Rate Average Prime IRR Source: RBA/Savills Research Average Prime Yield savills.com.au/research 6

7 Market yields in the Melbourne industrial market, as at June 2018, are estimated to range between 5.50% and 6.75% for Prime buildings, and between 6.50% and 8.00% for Secondary grade buildings. Yields for prime assets have tightened by 40 basis points on average, whilst secondary yields compressed by 50 basis points on average over the past 12 months. Capital values have recorded pronounced growth over the year to June 2018, amid a low-interest rate environment and investors yield chase. Capital values as at June 2018 are estimated to range from $1,000 to $2,000 per square metre for Prime grade buildings, and between $700 and $1,100 per square metre for Secondary grade buildings, with average capital values for both Prime and Secondary grade assets rising by 13% over the previous year. Prime Average Market Yield by Precinct MEL West MEL City Fringe 10.0 MEL South Eastern MEL East MEL North Note: Yields, rents and capital value range and averages exclude City Fringe precinct Top Sales Property Type Price ($m) Date GLA Yield Type $/sq m Wellington Rd, Mulgrave Warehouse Nov-17 68, r 1, Fourth Ave, Sunshine Warehouse Jan-18 52, r 1, Dohertys Rd, Laverton North Land Apr ,000 n.a. n.a Dohertys Rd, Altona North Warehouse Feb-18 30, e 1, Frankston Dandenong Rd & 8-22 Quality Dr (Nissan HQ), Dandenong South Warehouse Oct-17 32,430 n.a n.a 1, Australis Dr, Derrimut Warehouse Nov-17 31, e 1, Alfred St, Blackburn Warehouse Nov-17 41, e 1,547 6 Albert St, Preston Warehouse May-18 20,532 n.a n.a 1, and 11 Siddons Way, Hallam Warehouse Sep-17 15, r 1, Hydrive Cl, Dandenong South Warehouse Apr-18 14, r 1,095 8 Dunlop Crt, Bayswater Warehouse Dec-17 26, e Scholar Dr, Bundoora Warehouse Sep-17 10,000 n.a n.a 1, Centre Rd, Clayton Warehouse Aug-17 15,744 n.a v 1, Whiteside Rd, Clayton Land Apr-18 23,885 n.a n.a Ferntree Gully Rd, Scoresby Warehouse May-18 16,134 n.a n.a 930 ; i = Initial, r = Reported, e = Equated, v = Vacant, dev = development savills.com.au/research 7

8 Infrastructure There are several major transport infrastructure projects under development and in the pipeline across Victoria. By improving connectivity, reducing travel times and expanding the transportation network, Melbourne s industrial markets are expected to benefit greatly. Major transport initiatives currently in progress include the upgrade of Monash freeway and the widening of CityLink Tulla freeway. Upon completion in 2018, both the projects will expand the capacity of the freeways and increase connectivity between the industrial precincts, as well as freight and logistics hubs at the airport and the Port. The West Gate Tunnel project will provide a second river crossing on Maribyrnong and an alternative to the West Gate Bridge, with direct access to Port Melbourne. Also, the State Government has announced $1.8 billion public-private partnership to upgrade about 700 kilometres of arterial road network through the Western suburbs, which will further augment industrial demand in the West. Earlier this year, the Victorian State Premier announced the North East link project to complete the missing link in the Melbourne s ring road network. Key Infrastructure Project Summary - Melbourne Project Est. Cost Status Completion CityLink-Tulla Widening $1.28bn U/C 2018 Monash Freeway Upgrade $400m U/C 2018 Level Crossing Removal $8.3 bn Ongoing West Gate Tunnel $6.7bn U/C 2022 Western Roads Upgrade $1.8bn Contracted 2021 North East Link $15.8bn Planning 2027 Inland Rail - Melbourne to Brisbane $10.9 bn Planning Murray Basin Rail Project $440m Ongoing 2019 ; U/C = Under Construction. Recently, the business case was released with the early cost estimate of $15.8 billion, and construction expected to commence in 2020 with estimated completion in Additionally, the Federal Government has committed $9.3 billion funding to build a 1,700 kilometres freight rail network between Brisbane and Melbourne while connecting the regional areas along the eastern seaboard. The balance of the project cost will be funded by a publicprivate partnership. Outlook Victoria is amongst the top two states leading the Australian economy, driven mainly by its population and jobs growth. Similar to its economic growth rate, which is the highest nationally, Victorian retail trade growth continues to be highest of all states. Strong retail trade growth is driving demand from the e-commerce and third-party logistics players in the state. Ongoing drivers point to continued industrial demand on the back of strong economic metrics, with Industrial occupiers focussing on flight to quality into new built (mostly pre-committed) industrial space for both expansion and consolidation, whilst driven by need for achieving efficiencies. Prime grade net face rents have recorded small rises in some precincts. Additionally, sustained tenant demand has started to taper incentives, in turn uplifting net effective rents across all the precincts. This is likely to be on a building-by-building basis and more pronounced in tightly held industrial markets such as East and South East. Melbourne s unprecedented population growth is leading to the gentrification mostly in the inner and some middle-ring suburbs. The ongoing rezoning of industrial property and supply of newly zoned industrial land remains constrained, lifting both land and capital values across Melbourne s industrial precincts. Savills Research expects rental growth going forward, underpinned by the rising land values. The total transaction volumes may remain lower in near term compared to the heightened activity in recent years ( ), largely impacted by lower levels of blue-chip investment opportunities offered on-market. Purchaser appetite continues to remain strong for prime industrial properties amid a low-interest rate and low yield environment. The $15.8 billion North East link will complete the Melbourne s ring road network, and will further benefit the industrial businesses in the North and East by creating competitive supply chains valued at $427 million each year from the improved freight connectivity. Approximately 10,300 jobs will be created during construction, with additional 5,500 jobs ongoing in the north-eastern corridor once the North East link is operational. The project is expected to increase Victoria s GSP by $12.5 billion through to 2046 as a result of productivity improvements. savills.com.au/research 8

9 Savills Research Briefing Notes Melbourne Industrial Melbourne Industrial Precincts North LEGEND NORTH Sunbury West Craigieburn Melbourne Airport North Somerton Epping City Fringe East Thomastown Bacchus Marsh WEST Derrimut Healesville South East Sunshine Truganina Melbourne Laverton North Altona Port Melbourne EAST PORT MELBOURNE (CITY FRINGE) Knoxfield Notting Hill Scoresby Mulgrave Moorabbin Rowville Emerald Clayton Cocoroc Dandenong Avalon Airport Keysborough SOUTH EAST Cranbourne North savills.com.au/research 9

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11 Melbourne Industrial Key Indicators (Q2-2018) West (Altona, Derrimut, Laverton North, Sunshine, Truganina) Prime Secondary Low High Low High Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Incentives (%) Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,000 1, Land Values 3,000-5,000 sq m ($/sq m) Land Values 10,000-50,000 sq m ($/sq m) Land Values 10 ha and above ($/sq m) 200 (low) 325 (high) 175 (low) 300 (high) 130 (low) 200 (high) South Eastern (Braeside, Carrum Downs, Dandenong, Keysborough, Moorabbin) Prime Secondary Low High Low High Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Incentives (%) Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,200 1, ,100 Land Values 3,000-5,000 sq m ($/sq m) Land Values 10,000-50,000 sq m ($/sq m) Land Values 10 ha and above ($/sq m) 400 (low) 500 (high) 300 (low) 400 (high) 120 (low) 150 (high) City Fringe (Port Melbourne) Prime Secondary Low High Low High Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Incentives (%) Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,500 2, ,400 Land Values 3,000-5,000 sq m ($/sq m) Land Values 10,000-50,000 sq m ($/sq m) 800 (low) 1,100 (high) 600 (low) 800 (high) savills.com.au/research 11

12 East (Mulgrave, Clayton, Rowville, Scoresby, Notting Hill, Knoxfield) Prime Secondary Low High Low High Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Incentives (%) Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,250 2, ,000 Land Values 3,000-5,000 sq m ($/sq m) Land Values 10,000-50,000 sq m ($/sq m) 400 (low) 525 (high) 325 (low) 425 (high) North (Broadmeadows, Epping, Somerton, Thomastown, Tullamarine) Prime Secondary Low High Low High Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Incentives (%) Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,050 1, Land Values 3,000-5,000 sq m ($/sq m) Land Values 10,000-50,000 sq m ($/sq m) Land Values 10 ha and above ($/sq m) Key State Industrial Contacts Research Katy Dean +61 (0) kdean@savills.com.au Research Christopher Bantoy +61 (0) cbantoy@savills.com.au Valuations Ross Smillie +61 (0) rsmillie@savills.com.au Industrial Investments Kosta Filinis +61 (0) kfilinis@savills.com.au 225 (low) 350 (high) 200 (low) 320 (high) 150 (low) 200 (high) Industrial North & West Greg Jensz +61 (0) gjensz@savills.com.au Asset Management Sarah Hendry +61 (0) shendry@savills.com.au Industrial South & East Lynton Williams +61 (0) lwilliams@savills.com.au Project Management David Hayden +61 (0) dhayden@savills.com.au The Savills Research & Consultancy team has years of experience, and is supported by our extensive agency, property management and valuation professionals. For national-level consultancy or subscription requirements please contact: Capital Strategy & Research Chris Freeman +61 (0) cfreeman@savills.com.au Savills is a leading global property service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. Trusted since 1855, we have extensive experience across the Asia Pacific, with over 50 offices, and in Australia, we have over 800 staff focused on meeting all your property needs. This information is general information only and is subject to change without notice. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Savills will not be liable for any omissions or errors. Savills will not be liable, including for negligence, for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential losses or damages arising out of our in any way connected with use of any of this information. This information does not form part of or constitute an offer or contract. You should rely on your own enquiries about the accuracy of any information or materials. All images are only for illustrative purposes. This information must not be copied, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Savills. savills.com.au/research 12