Quarter Time National Retail Q4/2018

Transcription

1 Savills Research Australia Quarter Time National Retail Key Averages (East Coast) Regional Sub-Regional Neighbourhood Large Format Department Store Gross Rent ($/sq m) 215 DDS Gross Rent ($/sq m) Supermarket Gross Rent ($/sq m) Specialty Tenant Gross Rent ($/sq m) 1, Mini-Major Gross Rent ($/sq m) 1, Average Yield (%) Average IRR (%) Average Outgoings ($/sq m) Trends Detailed Sales Activity: $9.917bn 224 Sales ($5m+) Development (U/C) 902,034 sq m 68 projects Retail Trade $106.95bn 3.0% growth Average Capital Value ($/sq m) 10,275 5,250 5,175 3,350 savills.com.au/research

2 Report Contents Key Averages 2 Major Sales Analysis 3 Retail Trade Trends 5 Development Analysis 6 State Indicators and Major Activity New South Wales 7 Victoria 9 Queensland 11 Western Australia 13 South Australia 15 Shrabastee Mallik smallik@savills.com.au Director Research & Consultancy For our latest national reports, visit savills.com.au/research To join Savills Research mailing list, please research@savills.com.au Key State Contacts 18 Key Markets Average Yield and IRR vs 10yr Bond Rate (East Coast only) 12% 10yr Bond Rate Average Blended Yield Average Blended IRR 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Source: RBA, Savills Research Key Markets Average Yield Spread over 10yr Bond Rate and IRR Multiple (East Coast only) Yield Premium over 10yr Bond Rate (bps) IRR Multiple of 10yr Bond Rate (RHS) 5.0-x 4.5-x 4.0-x 3.5-x 3.0-x 2.5-x 2.0-x 1.5-x 1.0-x Source: RBA, Savills Research savills.com.au/research 2

3 Major Sales Analysis Top Recent Sales over $20m by Value Property Type Price ($m) Date GLA Yield Type $/sq m Figtree Grove, NSW Sub Regional Dec-18 21, r 9,370 Burwood One, VIC Sub Regional Oct-18 26, i 6,910 Harbour Town, QLD (25%) Regional Dec-18 55, r 13,038 Waverley Gardens, VIC Sub Regional Dec-18 39, e 4,601 The Barracks, QLD Mixed Use Oct-18 19, r 8,151 Lidcombe Centre, NSW Sub Regional Oct-18 32, r 4,406 Crossroads Homemaker Centre, NSW Large Format Dec-18 48, i 2,893 King Street Wharf, NSW City Centre Dec-18 7, r 16,299 Hurstville Central, NSW Neighbourhood Oct-18 6, i 18,989 Keilor Central, VIC Sub Regional Dec-18 18, r 6,031 Stockland Bathurst, NSW Sub Regional Nov-18 19, r 4,600 Highpoint Homemaker Centre, VIC Large Format Nov-18 21, e 3,784 Campbellfield Plaza, VIC Sub Regional Dec-18 17, r 4,134 Coomera Square, QLD Neighbourhood Nov-18 9, e 6,204 Bvlgari Building, NSW CBD Retail Dec n.a n.a 61,053 Cranebrook Village, NSW Neighbourhood Oct-18 6, e 7,252 Aurora Village SC, VIC Neighbourhood Dec-18 9, r 4,650 Bunnings Acacia Ridge, QLD Large Format Oct-18 15, e 2,821 Bunnings Toowoomba, QLD Large Format Oct-18 17, e 2,322 Yamanto Shopping Village, QLD Neighbourhood Nov-18 12, e 2,813 Source: Savills Research; Yield Types: i = initial, e = equated, r = reported, v = vacant, dev = development Sales Activity by State and Year (Sales $5m+) Sales Volume by Type (YTD Sales $5m+) $12bn NSW VIC QLD WA SA ACT Regional - $2,088m % $10bn $8bn $6bn $4bn $2bn $0bn Sub Regional - $2,114m % Large Format - $1,028m % City Centre - $256m - 2.8% Freestanding - $755m - 8.2% Neighbourhood - $1,690m % Shops - $596m - 6.5% Other - $493m - 5.4% savills.com.au/research 3

4 Top Recent Sales Regional & Sub-Regional Sales by $/sq m 17,098 13,038 10,909 9,370 8,473 8,055 7,214 6,910 6,745 6,031 5,920 5,695 4,763 4,600 4,500 4,406 4,134 4,133 3,986 3,491 (50%) Westfield Eastgardens, NSW - Jul-18 - $720.00m (25%) Harbour Town, QLD - Dec-18 - $180.00m (50%) Pacific Werribee, VIC - Jun-18 - $600.00m Figtree Grove, NSW - Dec-18 - $206.00m (50%) Ashfield Mall, NSW - Aug-18 - $102.52m (50%) Grand Plaza Shopping Centre, QLD - Apr-18 - (48%) Salamander Bay Centre, NSW - Aug-18 - $83.10m Burwood One, VIC - Oct-18 - $181.50m Stockland Wallsend, NSW - May-18 - $81.00m Keilor Central, VIC - Dec-18 - $113.00m Brandon Park Shopping Centre, VIC - Apr-18 - $135.00m (50%) Pacific Epping, VIC - Jun $373.00m Sturt Mall, NSW - Aug-18 - $73.00m Stockland Bathurst, NSW - Nov $90.02m Waverley Gardens, VIC - Nov-18 - $178.00m Lidcombe Centre, NSW - Oct-18 - $145.00m Campbellfield Plaza, VIC - Dec $74.00m Belmont Village, VIC - Oct-18 - $58.00m Toormina Garden Shopping Centre, NSW - Jan-18 - $83.30m Gateway Plaza S.C, VIC - Jun-18 - $117.00m Top Recent Neighbourhood Sales by $/sq m 18,989 10,016 9,047 7,252 7,032 6,527 6,402 6,204 6,125 5,954 5,816 5,729 5,592 5,414 5,371 5,342 5,299 5,253 5,163 4,945 Hurstville Central, NSW - Oct-18 - $119.50m Coles Crows Nest, NSW - May-18 - $45.00m Mordialloc Plaza, VIC - May-18 - $41.00m Cranebrook Village, NSW - Oct $48.10m Nundah Village, QLD - Jun-18 - $36.60m Flinders Square, WA - Aug-18 - $39.50m North Shore Village, QLD - Oct $26.10m Coomera Square, QLD - Nov-18 - $58.50m Thornleigh Marketplace, NSW - May-18 - $43.10m Woolworths Cairns, QLD - Nov $23.50m Stockland Highlands Shopping Centre, VIC - May-18 - $43.00m Mosman Heights Shopping Centre, WA - Aug-18 - $10.25m Oxenford Village, QLD - Oct-18 - $32.50m Maroondah Village Shopping Centre, VIC - May-18 - $16.80m Morningside Plaza S.C., QLD - Mar-18 - $23.80m Woolworths Aveley, WA - Aug $26.93m Gabba Central, QLD - Jun-18 - $22.39m Wattle Grove SC, WA - Nov-18 - $16.30m Torquay Village, VIC - Feb-18 - $35.00m Mornington Village SC, VIC - Jun $39.38m Vendor/Purchaser Analysis 12 Months to December 2018 (Sales $5m+) Vendor Purchaser 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Fund Trust Developer Owner Occupier Government Syndicate Foreign Investor Private Investor Other savills.com.au/research 4

5 Retail Trade Trends & Drivers Retail Trade Compound Annual Growth Rate by State (to Dec-18) Retail Trade Growth by Sector - 12 month change (to Dec-18) 6% 1yr 5yr 10yr 15yr 4.4% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 5% 4% 2.2% 2.1% 3% 1.0% 0.6% 2% 1% 0% NSW VIC QLD WA SA ACT AUS Clothing & Footwear Supermarkets Other Food Hardware & Garden Café & Restaurants Household Goods Department Stores Composition of Quarterly Retail Turnover (to Dec-18) NSW - $8,640m (31.8%) VIC - $7,070m (26.0%) QLD - $5,391m (19.8%) WA - $2,855m (10.5%) SA - $1,766m (6.5%) ACT - $670m (2.5%) TAS - $547m (2.0%) NT - $258m (0.9%) 10yr Compound Retail Trade Growth by Sector 180 Total Supermarkets Food 160 Household Goods Clothing & Footwear Department Stores Annual Population Growth by State (%) 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% NSW VIC QLD WA SA ACT AUS Wage Price Index - Change by Year 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Wage Price Index (Total) Wage Price Index (Private) Wage Price Index (Public) Sources: ABS/Savills Research savills.com.au/research 5

6 Retail Economic Indicators Summary Key State Indicators (%) Latest NSW VIC QLD WA SA ACT AUS SFD / GDP Growth Sep (2.7) 4.4 (3.0) 3.2 (1.7) 0.3 (1.6) 3.1 (1.9) 3.7 (2.5) 2.8 (2.6) Population Growth Jun (1.4) 2.2 (2.1) 1.7 (1.7) 0.8 (1.8) 0.7 (0.9) 2.2 (1.9) 1.6 (1.6) Employment Growth Dec (1.8) 3.5 (2.4) 1.4 (1.2) 0.8 (1.2) 1.2 (0.7) -1.9 (1.2) 2.3 (1.7) Unemployment Rate Dec (5.3) 4.8 (5.7) 6.2 (5.9) 6.3 (5.2) 5.7 (6.1) 3.7 (3.9) 5.3 (5.6) Inflation Dec (2.2) 2.0 (2.1) 1.5 (2.1) 1.3 (1.8) 1.6 (2.0) 2.5 (1.9) 1.8 (2.0) Retail Turnover Dec (4.2) 5.2 (4.0) 3.8 (3.1) 0.8 (3.1) 1.3 (2.3) 4.8 (3.6) 3.0 (3.6) Source: ABS/Savills ABS / Savills Note: Annual change shown, 10yr compound average in brackets Note: Annual change shown, 10yr compound average in brackets Major Retail Development Analysis National Development Activity by Retail Type (GLA sq m) National Development Activity by Retail Type (GLA sq m) 1,400 Regional Sub Regional Neighbourhood City Centre Large Format Mixed Use 1,200 Shops Other Freestanding Major Development Activity by State Major Development Activity by State % NSW % NSW % 1, VIC % VIC % QLD % QLD % SA - 3.4% SA - 3.4% WA % WA % Major Major Development Development Activity Activity by by Type Type (sq (sq m m x x 1,000) 1,000) Major Major Development Development Activity Activity by by Stage Stage (sq (sq m m x 1,000) x 1,000) SA SA Refurb Addition New VIC WA QLD SA SA VIC VIC WA WA QLD QLD Mooted Mooted Plans Plans Approved Under Under Construction Complete Plans Plans Submitted Early Early Planning NSW NSW NSW ,000 1,500 2, ,000 1,000 1,500 1,500 2,000 2,000 Source: Cordells/Savills / Savills savills.com.au/research 6

7 New South Wales NSW Retail Economic Drivers As at AUS NSW GDP / SFD Growth Sep (2.6) 3.5 (2.7) Population Growth Jun (1.6) 1.5 (1.4) Employment Growth Dec (1.7) 2.9 (1.8) Unemployment Rate Dec (5.6) 4.7 (5.3) House Price Growth Sep (4.9) -6.7 (6.4) Apartment Price Growth Sep (4.1) -1.4 (6.2) F/T Earnings Growth May (3.2) 3.7 (3.5) Retail Trade Growth Dec (3.6) 1.9 (4.2) Food Dec (3.8) 3.1 (3.9) Dept Stores Dec (0.2) 0.8 (0.3) H/H Goods Dec (2.8) 0.2 (3.6) Clothing Dec (3.3) 2.5 (4.4) Cafes Dec (5.6) 2.4 (7.5) Source: ABS/Savills Research Note: 10yr average shown in brackets NSW Key Indicators Enclosed Centres Regional Sub-Regional Neighbourhood Large Format Low High Low High Low High Low High Department Store Rent ($/sq m) Gross DDS Rent ($/sq m) Gross Supermarket Rent ($/sq m) Gross Mini-Major Rent ($/sq m) Gross 390 1, Specialty Tenant Rent ($/sq m) Gross 1,000 2, , , Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Operating ($/sqm) Outgoings - Statutory ($/sqm) Outgoings - Total ($/sqm) Capital Values ($/sqm) 8,500 17,000 3,500 7,500 3,000 8,000 1,500 5,800 Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 7

8 NSW Market Activity Last Reported Sales in NSW over $5 million by Price Property Type Price ($m) Date GLA (sq m) Yield Type $/sq m Westfield Eastgardens (50%) Regional Jul-18 84, e 17,098 Figtree Grove Sub Regional Dec-18 21, r 9,370 Lidcombe Centre Sub Regional Oct-18 32, r 4,406 Crossroads Homemaker Centre Large Format Dec-18 48, i 2,893 King Street Wharf City Centre Dec-18 7, r 16,299 Hurstville Central Neighbourhood Oct-18 6, i 18,989 The Homemaker Greenway and Greenway Plaza Large Format Sep-18 29, e 3,867 Ashfield Mall (50%) Sub Regional Aug-18 24, e 8,473 Stockland Bathurst Sub Regional Nov-18 19, e 4,600 Salamander Bay Centre (48%) Sub Regional Aug-18 24,000 n.a n.a 7,214 Sturt Mall Sub Regional Aug-18 15, e 4,763 Cranebrook Village Neighbourhood Oct-18 6, e 7,252 Bunnings Port Macquarie Large Format Sep-18 20, r 2,189 Woolworths Ermington Freestanding Nov-18 n.a n.a n.a n.a ShopSmart Sub Regional Aug-18 11, r 2,234 Yield Types: i = initial, e = equated, r = reported, v = vacant, dev = development Major Construction Projects Centre Centre Type/ Dev t Stage Refurb./ Redev. Addition New Estimated Completion Bunnings Port Macquarie LF / UC 20, Richmond S.C. SR / PA 18, Bunnings Smithfield LF / UC 17, Bunnings Lakehaven LF / UC 16, Tahmoor Town Centre NH / PS 15, David Jones CBD / UC 39, Home Centre Gregory Hills LF / PA 29, Former Masters Padstow LF / PA 25, Pretty Girl Site - Bunnings Tempe LF / PS 19, Bay Central Shopping Centre SR / UC 17, St Marys Village SC SR / EP 15, Former Masters Windale LF / PS 13, Tuggerah Gateway Site LF / PA 13, Former Masters Fairy Meadow LF / PA 13, Source: Cordell Construction Data; Savills Research LF=Large Format; NH=Neighbourhood; R=Regional; SR=Sub-Regional; CBD=CBD Centre; DA=Development Approval; PS=Plans Submitted; PA=Planning Approval; UC=Under Construction savills.com.au/research 8

9 Victoria VIC Retail Economic Drivers As at AUS Vic GDP / SFD Growth Sep (2.6) 4.4 (3.0) Population Growth Jun (1.6) 2.2 (2.1) Employment Growth Dec (1.7) 3.5 (2.4) Unemployment Rate Dec (5.6) 4.8 (5.7) House Price Growth Sep (4.9) -2.1 (6.2) Apartment Price Growth Sep (4.1) 1.0 (4.0) F/T Earnings Growth May (3.2) 2.8 (3.4) Retail Trade Growth Dec (3.6) 5.2 (4.0) Food Dec (3.8) 5.1 (4.0) Dept Stores Dec (0.2) 0.4 (1.0) H/H Goods Dec (2.8) 3.4 (4.1) Clothing Dec (3.3) 9.6 (3.7) Cafes Dec (5.6) 5.2 (4.8) Source: : ABS/Savills Research Note: 10yr average shown in brackets VIC Key Indicators Enclosed Centres Regional Sub-Regional Neighbourhood Large Format Low High Low High Low High Low High Department Store Rent ($/sq m) Gross DDS Rent ($/sq m) Gross Supermarket Rent ($/sq m) Gross Mini-Major Rent ($/sq m) Gross 400 1, , Specialty Tenant Rent ($/sq m) Gross 750 2, , Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Operating ($/sqm) Outgoings - Statutory ($/sqm) Outgoings - Total ($/sqm) Capital Values ($/sqm) 7,500 12,000 3,500 7,500 3,000 7,000 2,000 3,500 Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 9

10 VIC Market Activity Last Reported Sales in VIC over $5 million by Price Property Type Price Date GLA Yield Type $/sq m Burwood One Sub Regional Oct-18 26, i 6,910 Waverley Gardens Sub Regional Dec-18 39, e 4,601 Keilor Central Sub Regional Dec-18 18, r 6,031 Highpoint Homemaker Centre Large Format Nov-18 21, e 3,784 Campbellfield Plaza Sub Regional Dec-18 17, r 4,134 Belmont Village Sub Regional Oct-18 14,034 n.a n.a 4,133 Aurora Village SC Neighbourhood Dec-18 9, r 4,650 Mornington Village SC Neighbourhood Jun-18 7, r 4, Burwood Rd, Hawthorn Large Format Sep-18 4, r 5,544 Coles Hamilton Freestanding Dec-18 3, i 5,943 Liberty Tower Retail Centre City Centre Nov r 33,725 Woolworths Burwood East Freestanding Aug-18 3, r 5,344 Woolworths Scoresby Freestanding Aug-18 2, e 5,069 Adairs Richmond Freestanding Sep-18 1, r 13, Greville St, Prahran Mixed Use Oct-18 1,890 n.a n.a 7,079 Yield Types: i = initial, e = equated, r = reported, v = vacant, dev = development Major Construction Projects Centre Centre Type/ Dev t Stage Refurb./ Redev. Addition New Estimated Completion Craigieburn Junction LF / UC 21, Bunnings Clyde North LF / PA 16, Burwood Brickworks Shopping Centre NH / UC 12, Kingston Village NH / PA 10, Pentridge Mixed Use / UC 6, Pentridge Retail Hub NH / UC 11, District Docklands Mixed Use / PA 5,700 3, Merrifield Town Centre R / PS 200, Westfield Knox R / PA 45, M-City SR / PA 26, Jam Factory Mixed Use / PA 50, The Village Alphington Mixed Use / PA 4, Source: Cordell Construction Data; Savills Research LF=Large Format; NH=Neighbourhood; R=Regional; SR=Sub-Regional; CBD=CBD Centre; DA=Development Approval; PS=Plans Submitted; PA=Planning Approval; UC=Under Construction savills.com.au/research 10

11 Queensland QLD Retail Economic Drivers As at AUS Qld GDP / SFD Growth Sep (2.6) 3.2 (1.7) Population Growth Jun (1.6) 1.7 (1.7) Employment Growth Dec (1.7) 1.4 (1.2) Unemployment Rate Dec (5.6) 6.2 (5.9) House Price Growth Sep (4.9) 2.0 (2.6) Apartment Price Growth Sep (4.1) -4.4 (1.1) F/T Earnings Growth May (3.2) 3.3 (3.5) Retail Trade Growth Dec (3.6) 3.8 (3.1) Food Dec (3.8) 5.3 (4.1) Dept Stores Dec (0.2) 1.3 (0.0) H/H Goods Dec (2.8) 1.4 (2.1) Clothing Dec (3.3) 5.5 (3.1) Cafes Dec (5.6) -0.6 (3.9) Source: : ABS/Savills Research Note: 10yr average shown in brackets QLD Key Indicators Enclosed Centres Regional Sub-Regional Neighbourhood Large Format Low High Low High Low High Low High Department Store Rent ($/sq m) Gross DDS Rent ($/sq m) Gross Supermarket Rent ($/sq m) Gross Mini-Major Rent ($/sq m) Gross 400 1, , Specialty Tenant Rent ($/sq m) Gross 855 1, , Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Operating ($/sqm) Outgoings - Statutory ($/sqm) Outgoings - Total ($/sqm) Capital Values ($/sqm) 6,600 10,000 3,000 6,500 3,000 7,000 1,750 5,500 Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 11

12 QLD Market Activity Last Reported Sales in QLD over $5 million by Price Property Type Price ($m)w Date GLA (sq m) Yield Type $/sq m Harbour Town (25%) Regional Dec-18 55,225 n.a n.a 13,038 Homemaker The Valley Large Format Sep-18 38, e 4,342 The Barracks Mixed Use Oct-18 19, r 8,151 Coomera Square Neighbourhood Nov-18 9, e 6,204 Wilsonton S.C. Sub Regional Jul-18 18, e 2,729 Yamanto Shopping Village Neighbourhood Nov-18 12, e 2,813 Oxenford Village* Neighbourhood Oct-18 5, e 5,592 Festival Towers Retail City Centre Aug-18 1, e 30,978 Miami One Shopping Centre Neighbourhood Oct-18 4, e 6,940 Coles Alderley Freestanding Sep-18 4, r 6,848 North Shore Village* Neighbourhood Oct-18 4, e 6,402 Woolworths Mossman Freestanding Sep-18 3, r 6,017 Woolworths Caloundra Neighbourhood Oct-18 4, e 4,847 Yield Types: i = initial, e = equated, r = reported, v = vacant, dev = development; *part of portfolio sale Major Construction Projects Centre Centre Type/ Dev t Stage Refurb./ Redev. Addition New Estimated Completion Sunshine Plaza R / UC 8,000 33, Lutwyche City SR / UC 19,046 5, Bunnings Virginia LF / UC 18, Bunnings Acacia Ridge LF / UC 17, Costco Warehouse LF / UC 13, Former Masters Richlands LF / PA 12, Former Masters Springfield Central LF / PS 10, X Galaxy Shopping Mall CBD / PA 10, Rochedale Village Stg 1 NH / UC 7, Bunnings Kingaroy LF / UC 7, Macgregor Homemaker Centre LF / PS 11,500 20, Greenbank S.C. Stgs 1-3 SR / PA 21, Source: Cordell Construction Data; Savills Research LF=Large Format; NH=Neighbourhood; R=Regional; SR=Sub-Regional; CBD=CBD Centre; DA=Development Approval; PS=Plans Submitted; PA=Planning Approval; UC=Under Construction savills.com.au/research 12

13 Western Australia WA Retail Economic Drivers As at AUS WA GDP / SFD Growth Sep (2.6) 0.3 (1.6) Population Growth Jun (1.6) 0.8 (1.8) Employment Growth Dec (1.7) 0.8 (1.2) Unemployment Rate Dec (5.6) 6.3 (5.2) House Price Growth Sep (4.9) -2.8 (1.1) Apartment Price Growth Sep (4.1) -3.7 (0.9) F/T Earnings Growth May (3.2) 1.4 (3.5) Retail Trade Growth Dec (3.6) 0.8 (3.1) Food Dec (3.8) 2.3 (3.4) Dept Stores Dec (0.2) -1.1 (-0.5) H/H Goods Dec (2.8) -5.5 (1.6) Clothing Dec (3.3) -1.3 (-0.4) Cafes Dec (5.6) 1.9 (6.2) Source: : ABS/Savills Research Note: 10yr average shown in brackets WA Key Indicators Enclosed Centres Regional Sub-Regional Neighbourhood Large Format Low High Low High Low High Low High Department Store Rent ($/sq m) Gross DDS Rent ($/sq m) Gross Supermarket Rent ($/sq m) Gross Mini-Major Rent ($/sq m) Gross 400 1, , Specialty Tenant Rent ($/sq m) Gross 1,100 2, , Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Operating ($/sqm) Outgoings - Statutory ($/sqm) Outgoings - Total ($/sqm) Capital Values ($/sqm) 5,000 11,000 2,700 6,500 2,500 5,500 1,100 5,500 Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 13

14 WA Market Activity Last Reported Sales in WA over $5m by Price Property Type Price ($m) Date GLA (sq m) Yield Type $/sq m Malaga Homemaker Centre Large Format Feb-18 18,924 n.a n.a 2,114 Flinders Square Neighbourhood Aug-18 6, e 6,527 The Village Australind & Mardo Commercial Centre Neighbourhood Oct-18 9,321 n.a n.a 4,230 Coles Riverton Freestanding Jan-18 5, e 5,548 Woolworths Aveley Neighbourhood Aug-18 5, e 5,342 Coles Orana Freestanding Nov-18 4, r 5,628 Coles Vasse Freestanding Nov-18 3, r 4,957 Kelmscott Plaza Neighbourhood Apr-18 5, e 3,748 Shoalwater Shopping Centre Neighbourhood Feb-18 4, e 3,511 Wattle Grove SC Neighbourhood Nov-18 3, r 5,253 Woolworths Seacrest Neighbourhood Nov-18 4, r 3,140 Pearsall Shopping Centre Neighbourhood Feb-18 2, e 4, St Quentin Ave, Claremont Shops Apr r 15,935 Mosman Heights Shopping Centre Neighbourhood Aug-18 1, i 5, Albany Hwy, Cannington Large Format 9.20 Sep-18 3, e 2,636 Yield Types: i = initial, e = equated, r = reported, v = vacant, dev = development Major Construction Projects Centre Centre Type/ Dev t Stage Refurb./ Redev. Addition New Estimated Completion Midland Gate Shopping Centre R / UC 18, FOMO Kings Square Mixed Use / UC 5, Woolworths Mt Pleasant NH / UC 4, The Shops at Ellenbrook (Stage 2) SR / PA 2, Karrinyup Shopping Centre R / UC 59,715 49, Forrest Chase/City Central CBD / UC 41, Ellenbrook Central Stage 3 & 4 SR / PA 31, Bunbury Centrepoint Shopping Centre SR / PA 16,813 2, Butler Blvd LF / PA 12, Whitfords City (Stage 2) R / PA 100, Westfield Stirling (Innaloo) R / PA 51,258 47, Garden City R / PA 42, Busselton Central Shopping Centre SR / PA 11, Hay Street Mall, Piccadilly Arcade CBD / PA 1, Carillon City SC CBD / PA 6, Source: Cordell Construction Data; Savills Research LF=Large Format; NH=Neighbourhood; R=Regional; SR=Sub-Regional; CBD=CBD Centre; DA=Development Approval; PS=Plans Submitted; PA=Planning Approval; UC=Under Construction savills.com.au/research 14

15 South Australia SA Retail Economic Drivers As at AUS SA GDP / SFD Growth Sep (2.6) 3.1 (1.9) Population Growth Jun (1.6) 0.7 (0.9) Employment Growth Dec (1.7) 1.2 (0.7) Unemployment Rate Dec (5.6) 5.7 (6.1) House Price Growth Sep (4.9) 2.0 (2.5) Apartment Price Growth Sep (4.1) 0.3 (1.9) F/T Earnings Growth May (3.2) 0.6 (3.4) Retail Trade Growth Dec (3.6) 1.3 (2.3) Food Dec (3.8) 2.4 (3.1) Dept Stores Dec (0.2) 0.8 (-1.2) H/H Goods Dec (2.8) 3.6 (-0.1) Clothing Dec (3.3) -4.4 (2.6) Cafes Dec (5.6) 2.8 (3.7) Source: : ABS/Savills Research Note: 10yr average shown in brackets SA Key Indicators Enclosed Centres Regional Sub-Regional Neighbourhood Large Format Low High Low High Low High Low High DDS Rent ($/sq m) Gross Supermarket Rent ($/sq m) Gross Mini-Major Rent ($/sq m) Gross 400 1, , Specialty Tenant Rent ($/sq m) Gross 1,100 1, , Yield - Market (%) IRR (%) Outgoings - Operating ($/sqm) Outgoings - Statutory ($/sqm) Outgoings - Total ($/sqm) Capital Values ($/sqm) 7,200 10,800 3,500 6,000 2,000 5,000 1,800 3,000 Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 15

16 SA Market Activity Latest Reported Sales in SA over $5m by Price Property Type Price ($m) Date GLA (sq m) Yield Type $/sq m Gawler Park Homemaker Centre Large Format Sep-18 13, e 1,914 Greenacres Shopping Centre Neighbourhood Apr-18 2, r 4, Rundle Mall, Adelaide City Centre 9.17 Jan i 28,836 Lot 200 Commercial Street West, Mount Gambier Large Format 5.50 Mar-18 3, e 1, Jetty Rd, Glenelg Shops 5.48 Jul r 10,994 Yield Types: i = initial, e = equated, r = reported, v = vacant, dev = development Major Construction Projects Centre Centre Type/ Dev t Stage Refurb./ Redev. Addition New Estimated Completion Bunnings Edwardstown LF / UC 17, Adelaide Road, McCracken (Coles) LF / UC 4, Port Canal Shopping Centre NH / UC 13,361 11, District Outlet Centre LF / Deferred 41, Former Le Cornu Site LF / PS 12, Burnside Village SR / EP 11, Westfield Marion (Stage 1B, 1C) R / Mooted 11, Source: Cordell Construction Data; Savills Research LF=Large Format; NH=Neighbourhood; R=Regional; SR=Sub-Regional; CBD=CBD Centre; DA=Development Approval; PS=Plans Submitted; PA=Planning Approval; UC=Under Construction savills.com.au/research 16

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18 Savills New South Wales Valuations Chris Paul +61 (0) cpaul@savills.com.au Asset Management Howard Chapman +61 (0) hchapman@savills.com.au Retail Investments Steven Lerche +61 (0) slerche@savills.com.au Retail Services Leighton Hunziker +61 (0) lhunziker@savills.com.au Project Management Gavin Boswarva +61 (0) gboswarva@savills.com.au Savills Victoria Valuations Stuart Fox +61 (0) sfox@savills.com.au Retail Investments Ben Parkinson +61 (0) bparkinson@savills.com.au Project Management David Hayden +61 (0) dhayden@savills.com.au Asset Management Sarah Hendry +61 (0) shendry@savills.com.au Savills Queensland Valuations Lawrence Devine +61 (0) ldevine@savills.com.au Retail Investments Peter Tyson +61 (0) ptyson@savills.com.au Asset Management Phillip Dunn +61 (0) pdunn@savills.com.au Project Management Andy Hogg +61 (0) ahogg@savills.com.au Savills South Australia Valuations Heath Dowling +61 (0) hdowling@savills.com.au Retail Investments Peter Isaksson +61 (0) pisaksson@savills.com.au Asset Management Jeffrey Klaebe +61 (0) jklaebe@savills.com.au Project Management Steve Christodoulou +61 (0) schristodoulou@savills.com.au Savills Western Australia Valuations Mark Foster-Key +61 (0) mfosterkey@savills.com.au Asset Management Rob Agnew +61 (0) ragnew@savills.com.au Retail Investments Barney Dear +61 (0) bdear@savills.com.au Project Management Graham Nash +61 (0) gnash@savills.com.au Retail Leasing Chris Ireland +61 (0) cireland@savills.com.au Savills Australian Capital Territory Valuations Phil Harding +61 (0) pharding@savills.com.au Project Management Justin Ibrahim +61 (0) jibrahim@savills.com.au Retail Investments Steven Lerche +61 (0) slerche@savills.com.au savills.com.au/research 18