European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015

Transcription

1 European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Providing a holistic view of SESAR s performance & investment ambition levels Methodology & key assumptions European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 1 22

2 1 Introduction & Methodology 1.1 Introduction This document includes an overview of the methodology and main underlying assumptions used to derive the holistic SESAR performance ambitions and related monetisation s as outlined in the ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 and should be read together with the Chapter 3 (The Performance View) and Chapter 6 (The Business View) in the ATM Master Plan. It focuses on presenting additional supporting information for experts to facilitate the reading and understanding of the Master Plan chapters. 1.2 Overview of approach The SESAR vision as set forth in the Master Plan enables a significant improvement in ATM system capabilities to be rolled out in the next 20 to 30 years in Europe. This capability improvement has been translated into the potential improvement of ATM system performance by a certain point in time, given a certain traffic forecast. The next step has been to develop a business view for potential performance improvement, including a monetary valuation of the potential benefits and an assessment of the overall investments required. The approach taken was to build a comprehensive business view, rather than a business case for individual, or even a set of individual technological improvement levers. Technological improvements very often need to be supported by other measures such as evolutions in the ATM model to reach their full performance potential. Comprehensive in this sense implies that all supporting measures are effectively put in place. The Performance View and Business View as presented in the Master Plan and this document are the result of an extensive process including expert workshops, discussions with individual experts and dedicated review sessions by the Challenge Committee which is a sub-committee of the Campaign Steering Group (CSG). During this process, all key parties have been involved, including ANSPs, Network Manager, Airports, Ground Manufacturers, Airspace Users, Airborne Manufacturers, Military, PRB experts and the SESAR JU. 1.3 Assumptions and definitions Figures presented in this report are defined for: Geographical scope: European Civil Aviation Conference - ECAC Timeframe: 2035 unless explicitly specified otherwise European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 2 22

3 Inflation: figure are expressed in real 2012 euros, no assumption has been taken regarding to inflation Benefits are calculated in comparison to a 2035 baseline (or Business-as-usual scenario), both for potential improvements in performance as for the monetary valuation, where this is feasible. Performance ambitions are also reported in comparison to the 2012 observed situation, to provide a more tangible baseline. This 2035 baseline is defined as the performance of the ATM system with the exact capabilities of the 2012 ATM system, given the most realistic traffic forecast. The Regulated Growth scenario from Eurocontrol challenges of growth is used as the most realistic traffic forecast. This forecast represents a 50% increase of traffic between 2012 and Flights (Millions) 18 Air traffic forecast scenarios in Europe (up to 2035) % % Regulated Growth Global Growth Happy Localism Fragmenting World 2035 Source: Eurocontrol challenges of growth Time Total 2012 ANS costs are split in operations cost, infrastructure cost and other costs. Next, historical elasticity ranges for these cost categories are estimated and used to project the future cost evolution in function of traffic growth ANS cost ( Bn) I ANS operations ATCO staff Operations cost: 4.2Bn En-route: 3.2Bn TMA: 1.0Bn ATC operations staff, ATCO training, Admin ATC Engineering support, Other technical support, system related operations II ANS infrastructure 1.5 Depreciation, cost of capital Infrastructure cost: 3.6Bn MET, Eurocontrol 1 Network Manager Facilities related operations Other, Eurocontrol Other directorates Other cost: 1.4Bn ANS cost 1. Costs of MUAC are included in ATCO/Support/Capex costs Note: SESAR Performance framework edition 2 used for split of main cost items; ATCO staff costs from ACE 2012 p 137; Numbers are rounded Source: ACE benchmarking report 2012, PRR 2012, SESAR performance framework edition 2, expert judgment European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 3 22

4 Note: Numbers are rounded Source: ACE 2012 Benchmarking report, SESAR Performance framework edition 2 For most Key Performance Areas (KPAs) as defined in the Master Plan and depicted in chapter 2 of this document, the assumption is taken that traffic growth does not impact the system capability directly. At network level, ANS productivity however tends to naturally increase with traffic growth as an effect of efficiencies of scale. These efficiencies of scale have been taken into account in the definition of the Business-as-Usual scenario. The methodology to do this is illustrated by the graphs below. The traffic growth assumed in the Master Plan would imply an improvement of system capabilities that represents a reduction of per flight ANS cost from 960 in 2012 to in 2035 under the Business as usual scenario. This already represents a reduction of 10-20%, stemming from performance gains to be achieved through the effect of the performance scheme, economies of scale in relation with traffic growth, initiatives and/or partnerships at FAB, State or ANSP level. SESAR is expected to sustain these performance efforts through time and to additionally provide a portfolio of solutions to be deployed when and where needed to allow greater performance improvements on the top of the ones allowed under the Business as usual scenario. European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 4 22

5 Note: Numbers are rounded It is however difficult to clearly separate initiatives and solutions coming from one or the another scenarios, that in reality partially overlap. Their contributions therefore do not exactly sum up on the top of each other, but partially overlap for an estimated range of 5-10% justified by the intimate relationship between the SESAR initiative and the ANSPs effort to improve performance. To further simplify the reading of this document, the following notions and definitions are included: Business View: The "business view" consolidating RP2 targets, PCP, SESAR 1 and SESAR 2020 into a holistic view on performance ambition & investment ambition Performance ambition: The improvement of overall system capability levels to be enabled by SESAR at certain points in time, expressed as ranges Cross-readability: The consistency of performance ambition with SES high-level goals and crossreadability with SES performance scheme Investment ambition: The high-level investment estimates, resulting from top-down workshops with candidate members experts, expressed as ranges Deployment: The "how" to deploy, defined in two scenarios, based on standard deployment timeframes European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 5 22

6 2 Performance View 2.1 Overall outcome The SESAR Vision translates into a capability improvement on five Key Performance Areas (KPAs) compared to the 2012 baseline. These five KPAs, the corresponding SES high level goals, performance metrics and absolute and relative savings are depicted in the table below. Where possible, the link with the metrics used in the performance scheme is highlighted. * Baseline in 2035 assuming system with similar efficiency as in 2012, taking into account elasticity in growth of ANSP costs; 1. Additional flights that can be accommodated at congested airports, representing 5-10% of 1.9M forecasted unaccommodated flights in 2035; 2. Additional traffic associated with ANSP productivity gains, enabled by SESAR; Note: Numbers are rounded Source: Eurocontrol PRB, SES, EC ACE report (2012), Master Plan Campaign Expert Workshops 2.2 Key outcome per KPA ANS Productivity The Master Plan takes into account capability improvements on ANS productivity in three areas: ANS en-route operations ANS terminal operations ANS infrastructure Improved ANS en-route operations Improved ANS en-route operations drive a step-change in ANS productivity, notably through: Automation of routine tasks and use of data communication Flexible resource deployment across the ATM network, enabled by: o Standardised controller working positions o Dynamic sectorisation o Virtual centres European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 6 22

7 o Sector team operations o Sectorless operations Sector Team Operations The performance ambition for these solutions is to enable an increase from the baseline value of 1,02 flight hours per ATCO hour on duty to 2-3 flight hours per ATCO hour on duty. The supporting evidence supporting this estimation is presented below. Potential ambition for average ACC ANS productivity Sample of supporting evidence Automation tools Conflict resolution tools: TCT & MTCD Datalink Does not include gains from other automation tools Flexible resource deployment 3.0 Combined, potential of 5.1 Better demand-capacity balancing to achieve best-inclass ACC productivity of ~3 flights through e.g.: Standard controller working position Virtual centres Sectorless operations Ambition to raise peak productivity from 2/3 to ~6 flights per ATCO (Equivalent to productivity x2-3) Optimizing current way of working Implementation of best practices and continuous improvement (e.g. MUAC, DFS, Avinor) 2-3 Today Ambition 1. 25% reduction in workload through TCT & MTCD estimated by FASTI, 10% workload reduction through 75% equipage of datalink estimated by Eurocontrol. Potential from 100% equipage is higher 2. Range for extrapolation of historic 10y productivity trend in MUAC, DFS, Avinor Source: ACE benchmarking report 2012, Eurocontrol, expert judgment Improved ANS terminal operations Improved ANS terminal operations drive a step-change in ANS productivity, notably through: Automation of routine tasks enables APP/TWR ATCO to handle increasing flight volumes with similar workload o Automatic data input and management o Use of data communication & interoperable systems Remotely provided air traffic services can reduce ANS operations and infrastructure costs at low traffic airports The performance ambition for these solutions is to enable APP/TWR ATCOs to handle increasing flight volumes with similar workload, moving from the baseline value of 1,4 flight hours/atco hour on duty to 2-2,7. This represents an average value at ECAC level and can vary greatly depending on the specific local situations. Supporting evidence driving this ambition level can be found below. European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 7 22

8 Potential ambition for average TWR/APP ANS productivity Sample of supporting evidence Automation tools 2.3 Keeping number of working hours constant with growing traffic Optimizing current way of working Implementation of best practices and continuous improvement (e.g. productivity trend for DFS, DHMI) Today Ambition 1. Based on extrapolation of 10y productivity trend in DFS and DHMI 2. Productivity driven by strong air traffic growth in Turkey Source: ACE benchmarking reports, SESAR 1 DP/DS, expert judgment Lean and efficient use of ANS infrastructure In addition to improved ANS operations, a lean and efficient use of ANS infrastructure leads to higher ANS productivity, notably through: ANS infrastructure re-architectured as a set of services decoupled from system specificities o Interoperable standards & common info sharing o Virtual consolidation of air traffic control centers o Rationalization of ATM/CNS infrastructure and service orientation Lean and modular systems, easily upgradable and interoperable with each other o Enabled by the definition of common standards o Interoperability enables more choice of providers o More options for incremental modular upgrades The performance ambition for these solutions is to enable an increase in efficiency of infrastructure usage of 30-50%, with supporting evidence presented below: European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 8 22

9 1. Report from Austrialian Civil Aviation Order - Draft Regulation Impact Statement: Aircraft avionics equipage mandates for satellite-based IFR navigation 2. Extrapolation of historic 10y depreciation trend observed for DFS Source: ACE 2012 benchmarking report, Australian ANSP Operational Efficiency Operational efficiency refers to operational efficiency from air user point of view and is impacted by two key areas of operational improvement: Increased collaboration and predictability Improved flight trajectories Time efficiency departure delays From the figures published by CODA, the average delay per flight in 2012 (all causes included) was 10 minutes. The ambition for 2035 is to reducing by 1-3 minutes this figure, by gradually introducing a new paradigm for the planning and execution of flights, based on real time monitoring of trajectories and collaborative decision making among stakeholders who will pro-actively propose solutions when operations drift away from plans due to delays. This ambition must be read in the context of a 2035 traffic increase of +50% or more, which could potentially worsen considerably today s figures for delays if the Business-as-usual scenario holds. Once traffic growth hits the capacity barrier in fact delays grow exponentially. The SESAR ambition of increasing network capacity by 80%-100% will be fundamental to ensure that departure delays are reduced. Besides the network capacity increase, the reduction of departure delay is expected to be enabled by a Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) with all actors, which will increase predictability and reduce delays through for example and not limited to: Airlines influence prioritization of their flights according to business needs in the planning process All flight actors share and consult ATM digital information on a common digital information sharing platform allowing better decision making The performance ambition is to enable a reduction of 10-30% in total delay of 10 minutes per departure in the baseline, down to 7-9 minutes. A number of supporting evidences (not exhaustive list) is depicted below. European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 9 22

10 Potential ambition for reduction cost of delay Sample of supporting evidence (%) UDPP Collaborative negotiation of slots ~10 ~35 ~20 ~40 Combined potential of 40-50% Reducing reactionary delays by 75% Reducing delay of delayed flights from ~25min to ~15min Possible cost savings achieved through collaborative negotiation of slots International benchmark ~35 NextGen ambition to reduce delays from 18min per flight in do-nothing scenario to 12min per flight 10% - 30% Ambition Source: CODA annual digest 2012, Combinatorial Exchange Models for a User-Driven Air Traffic Flow Management in Europe, NextGen, Master Plan Campaign Expert Workshops Time efficiency predictability This refers to the reduction in size of the time window around a planned arrival time which captures around 70% of the variability. This is based on analysis and judgement made within the SESAR programme as follows: The current (at gate) arrival time variation not including pre-departure variability (which actually accounts for the vast majority of variability in arrival time) was assessed to be approximately 7.5 minutes (for approx. 70% of flights, i.e. one standard deviation) - from "Comparison of Air Traffic Management-Related Operational Performance: U.S./Europe, 2012" published November 2013 Note that as the US / Europe analysis is based on variability of repeated actual arrivals (of the same flight from day to day), it is necessary to make a judgement of how much of this variability (e.g. due to differing wind conditions from day to day) would have been reflected in the pre-departure flight plan (or in future, reference business trajectory). The judgement made is that about a third of the variability could be "planned for" - resulting in a baseline variability of arrival of 5 minutes. SESAR1 development programme has targeted a reduction of 60%, i.e. a reduction in the size of the time window of 3 minutes. It is acknowledged that the baseline calculation is based on a large element of judgement and that the measure does not include various factors commonly associated with Predictability or punctuality (e.g. departure variability). However, it is a measure that is relevant to the contribution that the SESAR concept of operation should be able to make. It is a "real" performance improvement in so far as it reflects the ability of the air transport system to be able to indicate at the point of departure the likely arrival time with a greater degree of accuracy. This fact, combined with the ambition on departure delay reduction, will directly imply a reduction of delays at arrival. Time efficiency flight time Shorter flight time will be enabled by user-preferred routes, dynamic airspace management and flexible airspace configurations as well as by advanced use of automation to manage and control traffic, allowing the optimization of traffic flows to/from busy airports. In particular: Flight centric operations allow air users to fly their preferred, more direct route Air Users can perform continuous climb/descent operations Advanced AMAN & XMAN ensure a smooth and optimal arrival flow into busy airports Dynamic mobile areas reduce the detours flown around special use airspace Airspace configuration dynamically adjusts to capacity/demand needs European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 10 22

11 The ambition is to reduce flight time with 4-8 minutes per flight, i.e. 3%-6% out of the baseline duration of 127 minutes (gate-to-gate average duration of flight in ECAC zone, including taxi) Potential ambition for time savings Sample of supporting evidence (min/flight) Case study by LH in coordination with Swiss Airlines ~10 ~18 Simulation of flight trajectory as foreseen by MP Represents time saving on routes from Frankfurt to Paris CDG & Madrid Free flight optimizer ~13 Swiss airlines study of free flight optimizer vs actual flight data 1 4 min 8 min Ambition 1. Time savings of 0-10% depending on route. Assuming flight time of 127min per flight Source: Lufthansa, Swiss Airlines, SESAR Project , Master Plan Campaign Expert Workshops Fuel efficiency A set of solutions will enable an improvement in flight efficiency: Flight centric operations allow air users to fly their preferred, more direct route Air Users can perform continuous climb/descent operations Advanced AMAN & XMAN ensure a smooth and optimal arrival flow into busy airports Dynamic mobile areas reduce the detours flown around special use airspace Airspace configuration dynamically adjusts to capacity/demand needs These solutions have an impact both on fuel consumption and on flight time. The ambition is to reduce fuel consumption with kg per flight vs. a baseline of an average kg per flight (all flights in ECAC airspace). This ambition must be read in the context of a 2035 traffic increase of +50% or more, which could potentially worsen considerably today s figures for fuel efficiency if the Business-as-usual scenario holds. Higher traffic levels in fact generally cause imply higher traffic complexity, naturally leading to more flight constraints negatively affecting flight efficiency. The supporting evidence for the fuel efficiency ambition is illustrated below. European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 11 22

12 Potential ambition for fuel burn savings Sample of supporting evidence ,000 (kg/flight) Case study by LH in coordination with Swiss Airlines ~425 ~600 Simulation of flight trajectory as foreseen by MP Represents fuel saving on routes from Frankfurt to Paris CDG & Madrid Free flight optimizer ~240 ~480 Swiss airlines study of free flight optimizer vs actual flight data 1 Continuous Decent Operations 2 ~75 ~260 SAS study ~100 ~200 Evidence from CDOtrials in Madrid and Schiphol airports Based on SAS observed fuel burn into / out of major European airports Only considers terminal area trajectory SESAR 1 Release in London TMA Extended AMAN horizon ~940 Represents aircraft fuel burnt to fly the last 500 nautical miles to destination 250kg 500kg Ambition 1. Fuel savings of 5-10% depending on route. Assuming fuel burn of 4.8 ton per flight 2. As reported by Eurocontrol CDO Implementation team Note: Other validations such as Advanced Flexible use of airspace or FRAMaK have demonstrated fuel savings of ~50kg Source: SESAR Release 1, Lufthansa, Swiss Airlines, Eurocontrol, Master Plan Campaign Expert Workshops The splits across the flight phases / operating environments are indicative. They serve to illustrate broadly where across the network fuel efficiencies can be expected. They are based on the following main inputs: a. 4,800 Kgs average fuel burn per flight (Source: PRR 2012 Fig 2 21; it is noted however that this is a weighted average of all traffic in ECAC airspace and not just intra-european) b. Approximate distribution of fuel burn for a typical intra-european flight of c. 100 minute duration (Source: IATA): Taxi phase: 5%; Climb / descent 50%; Cruise 45% c. Judgement of potential inefficiency in each phase - based on various sources, e.g. PRU, airline analyses etc. Here the judgement has been that the complex and busy TMAs are the areas with the highest potential enhancement from SESAR solutions (65% of overall ambition) with a relatively even split across cruise and taxi operations. Note that the average of Kgs per flight is for all flights, but not all flights use congested / complex TMAs (though by 2035 a far higher proportion than today will) implying a greater saving for flights who do use these areas. Although the majority of fuel is burnt in cruise, the relative inefficiency in this phase is seen as low (as per baseline KEA performance of 3.2% in 2012). The SESAR ambition in En-Route of 80Kgs implies that approx 75% of the observed KEA inefficiency is eliminated Capacity The Master Plan takes two views on improvement of capacity Increase of airport capacity, notably at congested airports Increase of overall network capacity Additional capacity at congested airports In addition to an increase in flights, the most realistic traffic forecast for 2035 projects a number of 1,9 million unaccommodated flights at congested airports. The SESAR solutions enable an increase of congested airport capacity: Runway throughput is enhanced to increase capacity at high traffic airports o Reduction of occupancy time o Reduction of arrival and depart spacing o Improved wake vortex management More robust operations due to accurate aircraft navigation and integrated surface routing/guidance Optimum traffic sequence is achieved by improving arrival and departure management, allowing users to plan ahead European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 12 22

13 More collaborative decision making In the 2035 baseline, ~30% of flights are expected to operate in a congested airport (i.e. > 95% utilization) environment while the number of congested airports is expected to grow from 6 to 30 in the period The ambition with the abovementioned levers is to enable an increase of capacity at these congested airports of 5-10%, which would imply that 200 to 400 thousand additional flights could be accommodated at these airports. The supporting evidence leading to the 5-10% ambition is presented below. 1. impact dependent on traffic mix 2. Airport with equal number of runways 3. Experts identified LHR was able to increase peak throughput from 76 -> 89 movements Source: PRR 2013, Master Plan Campaign Expert Workshops Increase of overall network capacity The approach on network capacity is to set an ambition that represents the additional capacity created by the increase in ANS productivity as presented earlier Environment Only one KPA for environment has been taken into account for the quantitative analysis, notably CO 2 emissions. The ambition level for reduction of CO 2 emissions stems directly from the increase in operational efficiency for air users. The 250kg 500 kg reduction in fuel consumption corresponds to a 790 kg kg reduction in CO 2 emissions, based on a fixed conversion ratio of Safety & Security The ambition on safety & security is to have no increase in risk, given the expected increase in traffic. At this stage, the accidents with ATM contribution are used as the Key Performance Indicator for Safety. The ambition is to maintain this total value constant despite the traffic growth, hence taking mid-air collisions as European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 13 22

14 the only type of occurrence, the ambition can be translated by reducing the relative risk factor by 3-4, i.e. with the square of targeted system capacity capability levels (80-100%). This Master Plan introduces security (and notably cybersecurity) explicitly as part of the ambition. Here the KPI used is ATM related security incidents resulting in traffic disruptions and the ambition is not to increase the number of occurances. European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 14 22

15 3 Business View 3.1 Overall outcome The overall positive outcome of the Business View as presented in the Master Plan is the result of the translation of the performance view in monetary value and the assessment of the required investments in the Optimised ATM infrastructure deployment scenario. This chapter focuses on how these estimates have been built. The Business View is presented in three different ways: 2035 View: value of annual, recurring performance improvements in 2035 Dynamic View: value of annual recurring performance improvements and required investments, per year up to 2035 NPV View: Net Present Value of dynamic view in 2012 using an 8% discount rate. The only NPV presented in the Master Plan is the difference in NPV between the two deployment scenarios. Also note that restructuring and financing costs are not taken into account in this Business View. As explained further in this report, the annual cost reduction for ANSPs remains limited to ~0,9% per year, limiting the need for restructuring costs. No specific stance is taken on the requirement for additional financing, in comparison to historical CAPEX levels, and hence on the potential financing costs. Nevertheless, the overall level of required investments seems in line with historical CAPEX levels (notably for ANSPs). 3.2 Benefits Whereas the Performance View presents the ambition level as an improvement of system capabilities, the business view translates these capabilities in a monetary valuation of the resulting savings or additional capacity, compared to the 2012 baseline scenario. Not all improvements of system capabilities can be translated into monetary terms. The three areas of improvements considered are: ANS productivity Operational efficiency for air users Additional congested airport capacity Combined, these improvements translate into a value of 8-15 Bn per year as of The first two KPAs represent cost savings compared to the baseline, the third KPA represents profits from additional congested airport capacity. European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 15 22

16 1. Based on Cost of 37 ANSPs of 9.153Bn and 9.55M flights; 2. Based on airline profit of 700 per flight, airport profit of 1400 per flight and 13 per passenger. Assuming ~330k additional flights in 2035 with 138 passengers per flight; 3. Taking into account that 2035 cost per flight could vary in a range per flight depending on the actual elasticity; Note: Numbers are rounded; Source: ACE 2012 Benchmarking report, Eurocontrol challenges of growth, WP , Eurocontrol inputs for standard cost-benefit analysis; Master Plan Campaign Expert Workshops Value of ANS productivity Productivity improvements for ANS operations only partially translate into a reduction of the ANS cost base, as bringing down these costs requires workforce planning amongst others. The assumption is therefore taken that ~80% of productivity improvements can be translated into an actual ANS Operations cost reduction (i.e. an increase of 100% in ANS Productivity translates into a ~40% reduction in costs, not into a 50% as it would occur if the two were linked 1:1. Based on expert judgment). Given the expected increase in traffic of 50%, the reduction of total ANS cost per flight (30%-40% compared to baseline 2035, or 40-50% compared to baseline 2012) represents an absolute saving of 3-4Bn (compared to baseline 2035). This saving implies an annual reduction of the total ANSP cost base of 0.7% (CAGR- Compounded Annual Growth Rate) as illustrated below. European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 16 22

17 These ambitions have been further broken down for ANS operations costs (en-route vs terminal) and ANS infrastructure cost as illustrated below. Note: Numbers are rounded Source: ACE benchmarking report 2012, Eurocontrol challenges of growth report, Eurocontrol, Expert judgment To be noticed that for terminal ANS operations costs the ambition generally implies that ANSPs will be capable of accommodating the increase in traffic demand with the same operations costs as in 2012, thanks to the improved ANS productivity enabled by higher technology support. The great variety of local conditions for terminal ANS service provision could however imply considerable differences from this average behaviour, to be analysed on a case by case basis Value of Operational efficiency for air users The value of operational efficiency is calculated by multiplying the figures for the ambition per flight with the associated cost of delay, fuel and flight time as presented below and with the expected number of flights in Note that just 80% of IFR flights have been accounted as fully benefitting of the SESAR capability improvements, to reflect the traffic mix in terms of users and equipment. This calculation results in a 5-9Bn of savings compared to the 2035 baseline. European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 17 22

18 1. En-route, Airport and weather-related ATFCM delay 2. Represents average block times for flight in ECAC airspace (i.e including e.g taxi times) Note: Numbers are rounded Source: Eurocontrol CODA- Delays to Air Transport in Europe, Eurocontrol Performance review report 2013, Standard inputs for Eurocontrol cost-benefit analysis, SESAR 1 CBA, Master Plan Campaign Expert Workshops Value of capacity The valuation of capacity is calculated by multiplying the thousand additional flights with a value of per flight. This value has been taken as input from SESAR P and is built up as follows: Profit per flight of 700 for airline Profit per flight of 1400 for airport Profit per passenger of 13 per passenger for airport, with an expected growth of 1% p.a. in passengers per flight from 110 passengers per flight in 2012 to 138 passengers per flight in Ramp-up of benefits The abovementioned benefits correspond to the ambition level and growth forecast for The ramp up of these benefits over time has been built by combining ambition levels and targets from: RP2 targets PCP CBA (SESAR 1 in deployment) SESAR 1 essential operational changes preliminary CBA analysis (SESAR 1 next wave of deployment) SESAR 2020 performance ambitions from expert workshops (split in 2 waves depending on targeted maturity dates) All of these ambition levels and targets are assumed to be realized by the corresponding timing. European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 18 22

19 SESAR Performance ambition S2020 wave 2 S2020 wave 1 SESAR 1 Overall SESAR performance ambition PCP Time Furthermore, the ramp-up of the SESAR 2020 performance ambition over time has been based on standard deployment timelines and deployment dates as presented in the optimized ATM infrastructure deployment scenario in the Master Plan. The allocation of the benefits to SESAR 2020 wave 1 and wave 2 has been set throughout the process in expert workshops and is illustrated below. Source: Master Plan Campaign Expert Workshops European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 19 22

20 3.3 Investments The required investments presented in the Master Plan Business View are the result of: PCP CBA (SESAR 1 in deployment) SESAR 1 essential operational changes preliminary CBA analysis (SESAR 1 next wave of deployment) SESAR 2020 investment assessment from expert workshops (split in 2 waves depending on targeted maturity dates) The SESAR 2020 investment assessment has been based on the number of operating environments received as input from WP and unit cost estimates defined throughout the process in expert workshops. Detailed figures are presented below. Number of operating environments considered Fleet-WP16.6.6; fleet - 50% Air Users equipage rate enabling ~75% of flights; fleet 50% equipage rate for large military aircrafts - 25% for other military aircrafts; 4. Hypothesis: 1/3 EU states (9 states out of 27) without civil-military ATC integration: 1/3 of 60 ACCs = 20 Military ACCs; Source: Master Plan Campaign Expert Workshops European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 20 22

21 Unit cost for investments per operating environment: Wave 1 1. Forward-fit: including investments in ground infrastructure, process upgrade,... estimated at 10-20% of overall air user investment; 2. Retro-fit: including investments in ground infrastructure, process upgrade,... estimated at 10-20% of overall air user investment; 3. Considering 10.4 pilot per aircraft (Pilot productivity Benchmark Cranfield University) & 14k scheduled aircrafts equipped (2035) & 1000 per pilot trained; 4. Based on medium complex. civil ACC; 5. ~10% of civil complex ACC upgrade cost; 5 AOC systems x 5M/AOC +~20% indirect costs (in line with PCP) Source: Master Plan Campaign Expert Workshops Unit cost for investments per operating environment: Wave 2 1. Forward-fit: including 20% of indirect costs (manuals, maintenance, procedures, spare parts...) ; 2. Retro-fit: including 20% indirect costs (manuals, maintenance, procedures, spare parts...) M: Considering 10.4 pilot per aircraft (Pilot productivity Benchmark Cranfield University) & 14k scheduled aircrafts equipped (2035) & 1000 per pilot trained; 4. Based on medium complex. civil ACC; 5. ~10% of civil complex ACC upgrade cost; 6. 30M: 5 AOC systems x 5M/AOC +~20% indirect costs (in line with PCP) Source: Master Plan Campaign Expert Workshops European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 21 22

22 3.4 Sensitivity While the Performance Ambition is defined as an improvement of system capabilities by a certain point in time, and hence does not depend on traffic growth, the Business View does depend on traffic growth. While most performance gains increase linearly with traffic growth, ANS cost savings do not as traffic growth drives scale efficiency and hence automatic productivity gains. The impact of traffic growth on ANS cost savings is illustrated with the sensitivity analysis below. The relative cost savings vs. the 2012 baseline has been assumed constant. Reduction in cost per flight compared to 2012 Note: Numbers are rounded Source: ACE benchmarking report 2012, Statfor; Master Plan Campaign Expert Workshops European ATM Master Plan Edition 2015 Performance and Business Views Page 22 22