ATM in Europe It s all about Performance
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1 ATM in Europe It s all about Performance Facts and analysis from Performance Review World ATM Congress 2014, Madrid Xavier FRON Performance coordinator 5 March 2014
2 Topics ANS in aviation context European ANS Performance US-Europe comparisons Conclusions Number of accidents 2002 Safety Total commercial air transport (CAT) accidents and accidents with ANS contribution (fixed wing, weight > 2250Kg MTOW) Accidents with ANS contribution Environment Source: EASA (P) En-route ATFM delay/ flight (min.) Capacity Average en-route ATFM delay per flight ATC Other (strike, equipment, etc.) WEATHER OTHER (Special event, military, etc.) IFR Traffic source: Network Manager Cost-Efficiency Traffic index (base: 1997) Horizontal en route flight efficiency (EUROCONTROL area) inefficiency /10 KEA data based on regression analysis Actuals Actuals Actuals Actuals Forecasts Forecasts En-route real unit cost per SU ( 2009) Total en-route ANS costs index En-route re al cost per SU ( 2009) En-route costs and SU indexe s (2009=100) Flight Plan (KEP) Actual trajectory (KEA) Total en-route service units index
3 ANS in aviation context Total commercial air transport (CAT) accidents and accidents with ANS contribution (fixed wing, weight > 2250Kg MTOW) Number of accidents Source: EASA Total anthropogenic CO2 emissions in Europe Accidents with ANS contribution 3.5% Estimated share of ANS-related CO2 emissions in Europe (2011) 6% Share of aviation related CO2 emissions (Europe) Share of aviation emissions actionable by ANS 2013 (P) 6% 6-12% 6% 6% Orders of magnitude for illustrative purposes minutes per departure Air Transport 200 B Change 2013 vs (min./dep.) ATFCM (en route) ANS-related (airports) ATFCM (Weather) Weather (non ATFCM) Local Turn around (airline, airport, etc.) Reactionary ANS Airports 9 B 40 B GA Orders of magnitude of turnover Source. PRU analysis; CODA MIL
4 ANS Total Economic Cost (TEC) Flight-efficiency En-route: 2.0 B 3.8 B TEC values all KPAs but Safety in economic terms Estimated Total economic cost 14B (2011) Total User cost (ground) 14 B TMA, taxi: 1.8 B ATFM Delays ER: 0.9, Apt: 0.5 ATCO 1.4 B 2.4 B ANS-related Airborne equipment to be added TEC fully borne by users of European airspace Lower estimates for 2013 with performance improvements, more accurate data (SES area) ATFM delays ( 660M) User Charges Support costs Other staff: 2.6 B Other oper.: 1.5 B 4.1 B Flight-efficiency ( 1B en-route, 1.2B TMA, taxi) ATFM delay and flight-efficiency cost estimates must not be interpreted as ANS inefficiency 9 B p.a. CAPEX Depreciation: 1 B Capital cost: 0.5 B Other costs EURO: 0.5 B MET: 0.4, NSA: 0.1 B 1.5 B 1 B Trade-offs between KPAs Optimum is not 0: Minimise TEC within acceptable bounds of safety and security 2011
5 Environmental impact (en-route) Target RP Indicative KEP profile 4.67 Target RP2 inefficiency (%) Indicative KEA profile SES area Flight plan (KEP) - actual Flown trajectory (KEA) - actual Great Circle broken up using Achieved distance KEP (FPL) and KEA (actual) vs great circle New KPI using Achieved distance addresses any airspace breakdown (in %) Excellent routing efficiency of ANS, certainly best of all transport modes (~ 3%) Yet significant economic impact (fuel burn, flight time) Network Manager s flight-efficiency initiative aimed at reaching SES targets Improvement in KEA compensates traffic growth Carbon-neutral growth of aviation (due in 2020) already being met by ANS! Impossible to reach 0% with full civil-military traffic load Further environmental indicators needed (Vertical, CO 2 efficiency ) Flightefficiency Delays Charges
6 Capacity vs. cost-efficiency 2009 per kilometre All States in Route Charges system En-route unit costs Traffic in km (index: 1990=1) En-route delay (summer) Minutes of en-route ATFM delay per flight and traffic index Flightefficiency Delays Charges ECAC Institutional Strategy Single European Sky 1st package Start of SES Performance Scheme Performance Review Commission Start of SES PS RP1 data source : EUROCONTROL/CRCO, CFMU (delay) Reactive policy in the 90 s: delays going up while costs going down, and vice-versa Balanced approach since then: delays and unit costs going down in the long run PRC and CFMU roles En-route ATFM delays: Best level ever achieved in 2013!
7 US-Europe OPS comparisons OPS Performance Reports jointly produced by EUROCONTROL/PRC and FAA Similar conditions (surface of continental airspace, average flight length ) US controls approximately 59% more (IFR) flights with some 23% fewer ATCOs and 39% fewer staff. Where does it come from?
8 US-Europe economic comparison ( ) EUROCONTROL PRC report, prepared in cooperation with FAA : Traffic increased % in European areas, nearly not in US ATM/CNS costs increased in Europe and the US, but not at the same rate Fluctuations in exchange rates and inflation taken into account Conversion based on constant exchange rate (average 1:1.28), close to current and PPS rates (1:1.3) Compares ANS provision costs, not funding Index of Flight-Hours (2002 = 100) Source: PRC analysis US SES Europe Index of Total ATM/CNS provision costs (real terms) Index (2002 = 100) Source: PRC analysis US SES Europe
9 Unit costs Flight-hours is adequate output metric for ANS cost-efficiency European unit costs decreased -13% over But still some 50% above US in absolute terms (US 34% below Europe)
10 Unit cost breakdown Flight-hours controlled ATCOs in OPS working hours ATCO-hour productivity +55% in US ATCO in OPS cost / ATCO-hour ATCOs employment Cost / flight-hour -48% in US Support costs per flight-hour -25% in US Unit ATM/CNS provision costs -34% in US -25% in US Detailed comparison (2003) of selected US and European En-route Centres involving FAA, AENA,DFS, DSNA, ENAV, MUAC, NATS provided very valuable insights Further work welcomed ATCOs in OPS Employment costs + ATM/CNS provision costs Support costs EUROCONTROL/PRU
11 Opportunities for improvement Flight-efficiency En-route: 2.0 B TMA, taxi: 1.8 B ATFM Delays ER: 0.9, Apt: 0.5 ATCO Support costs Other staff: 2.6 B Other oper.: 1.5 B CAPEX Depreciation: 1 B Capital cost: 0.5 B Other costs EURO: 0.5 B MET: 0.4, NSA: 0.1 B B 1.4 B 2.4 B 4.1 B 1.5 B 1 B Efficiency gains in individual ANSPs Airspace improvements (e.g. free routes) More flexible management of capacity to match demand New Technology Rationalisation of and greater cooperation in service provision and oversight
12 Conclusions Significant progress in European ANS performance Best level ever achieved in ATFM delays Flight-efficiency target leads to carbon-neutrality of aviation for ANS Unit costs going down significantly But margins exist for significant further improvements European unit costs still nearly 50% above US s Opportunities for improvement to be sought and applied Balance between KPAs is essential Detailed benchmarking and other research to identify best practices, better quantify influence of performance drivers, interdependencies Benefits of global benchmarking (ICAO ANC 12 recommendation 1/15) EUROCONTROL willing to engage with partners in transparency
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