Debunking the Retail Apocalypse
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1 Debunking the Retail Apcalypse Authrs Lee Hlman Greg Buzek August, 2017
2 Thank Yu t ur Research Spnsrs
3 CONTENTS
4 Intrductin Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 4
5 Int the Data Sme Definitins Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 5
6 What is the backgrund fr the negative narrative? BUSINESS MARKETING PRESENTATION SLIDES
7 The Start f the Retail Apcalypse Narrative Amazn Becmes the Villain Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 7
8 Key Trends & Drivers Figure 2 Retail Square Ftage Glbal Cmparisns Figure 1 Histrical Fed Rates Surce Cwan Research Surce Federal Reserve Bard f Gvernrs' Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 8
9 Key Trends & Drivers, cn t Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 9
10 Key Trends & Drivers, cn t Figure 3 Husehld Incme by Quintile Real $ Grwth % Incme Grwth Lwest 8,595 12,457 3, % Secnd 21,097 32,631 11, % Third 35,486 56,832 21, % Furth 54,922 92,031 37, % Highest 115, ,366 86, % Surces: BLS, Census Bureau Histrical Incme Tables H1/H3 Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 10
11 Shrinking Middle Class Figure 4 The Middle Class is Shrinking Figure 5 Share f US Incme held by the Middle Class has Plunged Surce: Pew Research Center Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 11
12 Debt and Other Issues Figure 6 Student Lans a Big Part f Husehld Debt Surce: Federal Reserve Bank f New Yrk, Blmberg Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 12
13 What is Really Happening? BUSINESS MARKETING PRESENTATION SLIDES
14 The Real Stry Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 14
15 Retail is Grwing, Nt Declining Surce: IHL Grup, Cmpany Reprts Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 15
16 Banners pening vs clsing stres Superstres/WH Clubs % Net Opening Stres vs Net Clsing Cnvenience Stres Mass Merchandisers Specialty Sftgds Specialty Hardgds Drug Stres Fd / Grcery Fast Fd Fr each cmpany clsing stres 2.7 are pening stres Surce: IHL Grup, Cmpany Reprts Bar / Restaurants Department Stres % Banners Clsing Stres % Banners Gaining Stres Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 16
17 Banners pening vs clsing stres Surce: IHL Grup, Cmpany Reprts 1.0 is breakeven number f pening vs clsing Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 17
18 Retail Stre Cunt Grwth Surce: IHL Grup, Cmpany Reprts Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 18
19 Stre Cunt Decline Surce: IHL Grup, Cmpany Reprts Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 19
20 Restaurant Cunt Grwth Surce: IHL Grup, Cmpany Reprts Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 20
21 Restaurant Cunt Decline Surce: IHL Grup, Cmpany Reprts Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 21
22 Deeper Dive Drug and Csmetics Surces: US Census n Retail Trade, IHL Grup, Cmpany Reprts Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 22
23 Deeper Dive General Merchandise Surces: US Census n Retail Trade, IHL Grup, Cmpany Reprts Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 23
24 Deeper Dive Sftgds Surces: US Census n Retail Trade, IHL Grup, Cmpany Reprts Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 24
25 Deeper Dive Hardgds Surces: US Census n Retail Trade, IHL Grup, Cmpany Reprts Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 25
26 Deeper Dive Restaurants Surces: US Census n Retail Trade, IHL Grup, Cmpany Reprts Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 26
27 BUSINESS MARKETING PRESENTATION SLIDES
28 6 Things Retailers Must D Figure 7 Leaders vs Average Retailers n IT Spend Grwth Surce: 2017 RIS News / IHL Grup Stre Systems Study Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 28
29 6 Things Retailers Must D Surce: 2017 RIS News/IHL Stre Systems Study Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 29
30 Final Thughts * US Census Mnthly Retail Trade Nn-Adjusted, Retail and Fd Service Sales Ttal Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 30
31 Methdlgy BUSINESS MARKETING PRESENTATION SLIDES
32 Hw We Gt Here Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 32
33 IHL Grup Enterprise License and Fair Use Agreement Cpyright 2017 IHL Grup All Rights Reserved 33
34 Thank Yu
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