Embassy of Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela

Transcription

1 Embassy of Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela José Sojo Reyes Minister Counselor Chief of Economic Affairs

2 Venezuela is the third USA Trade Partner in Latin America Total Trade - EEUU main trade partners in latinoamerica (MM US$) Country Mexico Brazil Venezuela Colombia Chile Source: United States International Trade Commission

3 Venezuela is the sixteenth USA trade partner worldwide Venezuela: Sixteenth position in total trade Year Rank Total Trade (US$ Millions) ,138 15,598 22,737 19,561 18,491 19,313 28,922 Source: United States International Trade Commission

4 US Venezuela trade parnership is even larger than the one between US and Belgium, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong and India Position Country Imports Exports Balance MM USA$ 1 Canada Mexico China Japan Germany United Kingdom Korea Taiwan France Malaysia Italy Ireland Netherlands Brazil Singapore Venezuela Belgium Saudi Arabia Thailand Hong Kong Australia India Source: United States International Trade Commission

5 US Venezuela strong trade partnership VALUE VENEZUELAN NON OIL EXPORTS BY DESTINY COUNTRY 2004 (%) Value of non oil exports by country of destination COUNTRIES MillIons US$ Relative Share (%) COLOMBIA UNITED STATES 39.8 United States 2, Colombia Mexico Ecuator Netherlands Japan Brazil Italy Peru Dominican Republic Others 1, TOTAL 6, United States Colombia Mexico Equador Netherlands Japan Brazil Italy Peru Dominican Republic Other

6 Venezuela: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II II IV I II Source: Venezuela Central Bank

7 Venezuela: higher worldwide GDP growth in Percentage (%) Source: Venezuela Central Bank

8 Oil market prices in favor of economic recovery Daily Oil Market Prices BRENT WEST TEXAS OPEC Source: REUTERS

9 In one year more than seventy seven percent growth rate Financial Market: Loan Portfolio August 2005 Bs Billion August 2004 Bs.15.8 Billion Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Source: SUDEBAN

10 Delinquency rates in the financial system tend to be reduced (%) 9 Delinquency Rates Percentage Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Source: SUDEBAN

11 A great recovery of the stock market index 35,000 Stock Market Index 30,000 25,000 Dec. 31st 04 29, ,000 15,000 Dec. 31st 03 22, ,000 8, ,000 Oct. 10th 05 19, Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 I n d e x 5 Source: Caracas Stock Exchange

12 Tendency monthly inflation rate is below of previous average Monthly Inflation JAN-03 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC JAN-04 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC JAN-05 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP Percentage (%) Source: Venezuela Central Bank

13 Average annual inflation rate keeps going down Annual Inflation JAN-03 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC JAN-04 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC JAN-05 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP Source: Venezuelan Central Bank Percentage (%)

14 Declining interests rate are in favor of investment growth Interest Rate Spread T. ACTIVAS T. PASIVAS 30 Percentage Spread /3/03 3/3/03 5/3/03 7/3/03 9/3/03 11/3/03 1/3/04 3/3/04 5/3/04 7/3/04 9/3/04 11/3/04 1/3/05 3/3/05 5/3/05 7/3/05 9/3/05 Source: Venezuela Central Bank Active and passive rates correspond to the average of the six largest banks in Venezuela. Avereage passive rates correspond to the rate paid for 90- day deposits.

15 International reserves: 30 billion and still growing 33,000 31,000 29,000 27,000 25,000 23,000 Total International Reserves FEM 725 MMUS$ 21,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 13,000 Oct. 07 th 2005 BCV Reserves Source: Venezuelan Central Bank

16 Unemployment rate tends to decrease Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Start Chávez Government Oil Sabotage 20,7 Coup d état 18 16,6 15,9 17, , ,6 14,2 12, ,0 8 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Jan-99 Mar-99 May-99 Jul-99 Sep-99 Nov-99 Jan-00 Mar-00 May-00 Jul-00 Sep-00 Nov-00 Jan-01 Mar-01 May-01 Jul-01 Sep-01 Nov-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 % Source: (INE) Processed by MPD 12,1

17 Lower than the historic average VENEZUELA COUNTRY RISK Basic Points 1,200 1,100 1, Source: Reuters

18 Construction will be a leading sector in the year 2005 Thousands of Tones CEMENT SALES Thousands of Tones "Monthly Sales "Annual Sales 8, , , , , , , , , , ,000.0 Jan 03 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DIC Jan-04 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DIC Jan-05 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP "Source: Venezuelan Cement Association (AVPC)

19 Sales growth leads to investment in the automobile industry Automobile Sales Units 210,000 23,000 Monthly Sales Annual Sales 195, ,000 18,000 19,263 16, ,000 17, ,000 13, , , ,000 8,000 90,000 70,000 3,000 50,000 Jan-03 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC Jan-04 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC Jan-05 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP Units Source: CAVENEZ

20 Electricity consumption at good proxy of GDP growth Thousands of Kw /h ELECTRICITY MONTHLY CONSUMPTION Thousands of Kw /h 10,000 Monthly Consumption Annual Consumption 101, , ,000 9,000 8, ,500 95,000 8,000 7,500 88, ,000 6, ,000 6,500 6,000 85,000 5,500 5,000 80,000 Source: Oficina de Operación de los Sistemas Interconectados (OPSIS)

21 Increasing export share to the Latin America region Venezuela: Non-oil oil exports to Latin america, MM US$ LATIN AMERICA OTHER COUNTRIES Source: SENIAT By the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), International Trade Program

22 Increasing import share to the Latin America region 14,000 Venezuela: Non oil imports from Latin America, ,000 10,000 11,051 11,872 8,529 10,014 MM US$ 8,000 6,000 4,000 3,533 4,564 3,145 2,510 5,827 5,148 2, LATIN AMERICA OTHER COUNTRIES Source: SENIAT By the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), International Trade Program

23 Venezuelan Exports by Economic Sector SECTOR EXPORTS ACCORDING TO ECONOMIC SECTOR (1)/* JANUARY-DECEMBER Participation 2004 Participation Variation (%) Million US $ % Million US $ % 2004/ /1 TOTAL 5, , Vegetal Products I Foodstuffs and Bevarages and Tobacco (4.8) Mineral Products (1) 1, , Chemical Products Plastics and Manufactures Base Metals (2) 2, , Electrical Equipment Transport Equipment (1) Includes oil exports of private sector (*) Provisional 1/: It does not include exports of Oil and Steel of Public Sector Source: SENIAT - Processed by Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), International Trade Program

24 Non oil export increased by twenty nine percent in 2004 NON OIL EXPORTS ACCORDING TO ECONOMIC SECTOR, 2004 Non-oil exports according to Economic Sector, SECTORS Millions US$ Participation (%) Vegetal Products Food, Beverages and Tobacco Mineral Products Chemical Products Plastics and Manufactures Base Metals (2) Electrical Equiment Transport Equipment Others Vegetal Products Foods, Beverages and Tobacco Mineral Products 1, Chemical Products Plastics and Manufactures Base Matals 3, Electrical Equipment Transport Equipment Others TOTAL 6, Source: SENIAT By the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), International Trade Program

25 Main Exports non oil products Metals: Steel, Iron and Aluminum Organic and inorganic Chemicals: Main Products MTBE, methanol, benzene, cumene and para-xylen. Ethylene, propane, ethane and butane. Ammonia, silicon carbides, acrylic ethers, carbon black, artificial corundum. Urea, tires for motor vehicles. Fish and Crustaceans: Shrimp, Crab and fish Vehicles, Parts and Accessories: Parts and accessories for motor vehicles, breaks Gold and precious metals: Gold Electrical Machinery and equipment: Electric Conductors, electric ranges and ovens. Carbon Electrodes Apparatus and parts of machinery: Industrial and laboratory ovens. Gas turbines parts. Manufactured Articles Food Stuffs: Beverages and Tobacco

26 This means investing in people capability Social expenditure as a percentage of GDP ,8 12,3 11,8 10 9,4 9,7 9,5 10,7 9,0 10, ,6 8,1 7,5 7,6 7,1 7,8 Source: - Oficina Nacional de Presupuesto (ONAPRE) - Venezuela Central Bank

27 Our goal is zero illiteracy Robinson I y II Missions Persons Robinson I Robinson II Source: Presidential Message 2004

28 A path for human development Human Development Index 0,9000 0,8536 0,8500 0,8000 0,8209 0,7704 0,7989 0,7500 0,7839 0,7648 0,7000 0,7370 0,6911 0,6917 0, Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas (INE)-Venezuela

29 Social Missions: healthcare for social inclusion Barrio Adentro Mission to Dec MM 17 MM Visions Centers Dental Clinics Medical Offices doctors Dentists and Nurses Total Population Benefited Total medical Office visits Medical Assistance Created Services and Benefits Source: Presidential Message 2004

30 Joint effort in health and food security Misions dedicated to heathcare and food distribution Programs Barrio Adentro Mission People Benefited 18 MM Percentage of the Population Mercal Mission 11.2 MM Source: MERCAL, MSDS, MED, INE MERCAL Mission serves to 77,2% of the poor. Venezuela s population in the 2004 is people

31 Enrollment in elementary school and Pre- school Enrollment in Elementary School and Pre-School Rate Rate of Enrollment Elementary School Rate of Enrollment Pre-school Percentage Source : Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deportes (MECD), Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE)