PANAMA AUTOMOBILE MARKET SURVEY. Financial Studies Division March 2013

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1 PANAMA AUTOMOBILE MARKET SURVEY Financial Studies Division March 2013 Ref. No.: SG-TRAD

2 Ref. No.: SG-TRAD I. Automobile Sector

3 According to the Comptroller General of the Republic s data, as of 2011, the automobile fleet in Panama, amounted to 494,354 cars, i.e. 138 cars per 1,000 inhabitants, a slightly lower number compared to other countries in the region. 550,000 Panama: Automobile Fleet and Vehicles per Thousand Inhabitants Years: Number of Cars per Thousand Inhabitants (Last year available) , , , , , , , , , , , Parque vehicular Vehículos por mil habitantes 80 0 Argentina México Brazil Uruguay Chile Costa Rica Venezuela, RB Panamá R. Dominicana Honduras El Salvador Peru Ecuador Colombia Bolivia Guatemala Nicaragua Paraguay Source: Comptroller General of the Republic Source: Comptroller General of the Republic

4 The province of Panama has 77.72% of the automotive market, followed by Chiriqui (8.75%) and Colon (3.18%). However, the market shares of these provinces is decreasing in favor of the central provinces of Veraguas, Herrera, Los Santos and Cocle (10.04% of the nationwide total). Veraguas 3.13% Colón 3.18% Chiriquí 8.75% Cars on the Road by Province Year: 2011 Los Santos Herrera 2.32% 2.35% Coclé 2.23% Bocas del Toro 0.30% Darién 0.01% Panamá 77.72% Source: General Comptroller of the Republic

5 The automobile fleet is made up of cars imported mainly from Asia, in the case of new cars, and from the United States, in case of used cars. India 1.48% Germany 5.27% Argentina 1.40% Panama: New Imported Cars Year: 2011 United Kingdom 0.77% China 0.74% Others 1.61% Panama: Used Imported Cars Year: 2011 Spain 0.12% Italy Canada 0.07% 0.48% Japan 0.71% Germany 0.06% Mexico 8.04% South Korea 30.50% Thailand 13.03% United States 14.53% Japan 22.64% United States 98.55% Source: Comptroller General of the Republic Source: Comptroller General of the Republic

6 In 2012, new car sales reached 8.5%. Hyundai came in first place with a 21.87% market share, dropping Toyota to the second place (Toyota has been the market leader for the last decade). Panama: New Car Sales by Manufacturer Years: Manufacturer Units Market Share Units Market Share Hyundai 9, % 11, % Toyota 9, % 10, % Nissan 7, % 8, % Kia 4, % 6, % Honda 2, % 2, % Suzuki 1, % 1, % Chevrolet 1, % 1, % Ford % 1, % Isuzu 1, % 1, % Mitsubishi 1, % % Others 5, % 5, % TOTAL 46, % 50, % Source: ADAP Ref. No.: SG-TRAD

7 Overall, most of the segments show increases compared to the previous year. Small vehicles were in first place of sales preference, followed by SUVs, whose sales indicated an aesthetic motive, since the highest demand is for 2-wheel drive cars. 50,000 Panama: New Car Sales Years: ,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Otros Minivans Automóviles de lujo Paneles Buses Camiones Pick ups SUV`S Automóviles Source: Comptroller General of the Republic

8 % Variation % Variation New car sales are mostly explained by the performance of the economy. Looking ahead, we estimate that the pace of new car sales will slow to an average growth of 6% in 2013 (the sector estimates around 5%). However, there are other elements that need to be analyzed. Panama: New Car Sales and GDP Period: 2006Q1 2012Q T T T T T T Venta de autos nuevos (eje izq.) PIB (eje der.) Source: Comptroller General of the Republic

9 Ref. No.: SG-TRAD II. Bank Loans for Automobiles

10 Millions Thousands Panama: National Banking System Value vs. Quantity of Personal Car Loans Year: (Balance in millions and quantity of loans in thousands) $800 $700 $ $ $ $ $200 $100 $584.8 $599.8 $619.7 $679.2 $ $ Dec 2009-Dec 2010-Dec 2011-Dec 2012-Dec 0 Personal Car Loan Quantity of loans Ref. No.: SG-TRAD

11 Ref. No.: SG-TRAD Performance of Car Loans

12 Panama: National Banking System Growth of Total Personal Car Loans Year: (percentage) 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 16.8% 13.3% 9.6% 2.6% 3.3% 2008-dic 2009-dic 2010-dic 2011-dic 2012-dic Ref. No.: SG-TRAD

13 3.3% 10.3% 0.7% 1.2% 2.1% 0.4% Panama: National Banking System Personal Car Loans by Rank Year: December 2012 (percentages) 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 58.6% 0-15,000 15,001-20,000 20,001-25,000 25,001-30,000 30,001-35,000 35,001-40,000 40,001-45, % 45,001-50,000 50,001-55,000 55,001-60,000 60,001 or over Ref. No.: SG-TRAD

14 $659.3 Panama: National Banking System Value of New Personal Car Loans, by province Year: December 2012 (in millions of US$) $51.8 $23.9 $21.7 $17.0 $9.9 $4.8 $4.6 $0.2 Panama Chiriqui Colon Veraguas Herrera Cocle Bocas del Toro Los Santos Darien Ref. No.: SG-TRAD

15 Panama: National Banking System Value of New Personal Car Loans Year: (in millions of US$) $ $233.4 $ $156.7 $ Ref. No.: SG-TRAD

16 Ref. No.: SG-TRAD Customer Behavior

17 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Panama: National Banking System Value of Personal Car Loans by Type of Customer Year: (in millions of US$) $612.6 $22.3 $44.3 $46.5 $ Dec 2012-Dec $726.9 Corporate Retired Non-retired Ref. No.: SG-TRAD

18 Ref. No.: SG-TRAD

19 Ref. No.: SG-TRAD Quality of the Portfolio

20 Panama: National Banking System Classification of Personal Car Loans Year: (percentages) 2012-dic 96.1% 3.1% 0.8% 2011-dic 95.5% 3.5% 1.0% 2010-dic 95.1% 3.8% 1.1% 2009-dic 93.1% 5.7% 1.3% 2008-dic 93.9% 4.9% 1.2% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% Vigente Moroso (30 días) Vencido (90 días) Ref. No.: SG-TRAD

21 Ref. No.: SG-TRAD

22 Ref. No.: SG-TRAD Performance by Bank

23 Panama: National Banking System Value of New Personal Car Loans by Bank and their Annual Variation Year: (Balance in millions of US$ and percentages) Bank Dec Dec Absolute Var. % Variation Banco General % BAC Int Bank % Global Bank % Multibank % HSBC % Scotiabank % BBVA Panamá % Banco Delta % Capital Bank % Ref. No.: SG-TRAD

24 Panama: National Banking System Value of New Personal Car Loans by Bank and their Annual Variation Year: (Balance in millions of US$ and percentages) Bank Rate Dec. Rate Dec. % Var Banco General % 7.3% 7.2% BAC Int Bank % 6.8% 6.7% Global Bank % 6.8% 6.7% Multibank % 8.1% 8.3% HSBC % 6.7% 6.6% Scotiabank % 6.8% 6.1% BBVA Panamá % 7.0% 7.5% Banco Delta % 11.8% 11.6% Capital Bank % 7.3% 7.2% Ref. No.: SG-TRAD

25 Ref. No.: SG-TRAD III. Conclusions

26 Credit to vehicle sector has increased parallel with the growth of the economy. However, we estimate that in the future new car sales will increase at a slower pace. Car loans offer a good rate spread. As of the end of 2012, car loan performance showed strong signs of growth combined with a healthy portfolio quality. It is important to note that these loans have maintained satisfactory levels of financial performance. At the same time, due to the country s favorable macroeconomic scenario, it is expected that portfolio quality indicators will remain stable for This will allow the credit portfolio to continue its good performance. Ref. No.: SG-TRAD

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