A glance on the containerboard industry Fastmarkets RISI European Conference
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1 A glance on the containerboard industry Fastmarkets RISI European Conference Klaus Spielmann WCO Vienna March 2019
2 A glance on the containerboard industry RISI Conference - Vienna March I. Macro Economical Data II. III. IV. Corrugated Board Development Containerboard Production & Demand Take away points
3 World Economic Activity GDP Development RISI Conference - Vienna March GDP evolution in % (Y / Y-1) Y18 Y19 Y20 World +3,3 +3,1 +2,9 Europe +1,9 +1,5 +1,6 Western Europe +1,8 +1,4 +1,5 Eastern Europe +3,1 +2,1 +2,6 North America +2,8 +2,5 +1,9 Latin America +1,5 +2,0 +2,6 Asia Pacific +4,8 +4,5 +4,4 Japan +0,7 +0,9 +0,4 Emerging Asia +6,0 +5,9 +5,7 SOURCE CONSENSUS + BANKS
4 Economic Activity Manufacturing production & IHS Markit Index RISI Conference - Vienna March EURO ZONE MANUFACTURING PMI (in points - last point Jan. 19) USA MANUFACTURING PMI (in points - last point Jan. 19) CHINA MANUFACTURING PMI (in points - last point Jan. 19) BRAZIL MANUFACTURING PMI (in points - last point Jan. 19) , , ,5 48, Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 SOURCE IHS - MARKIT SOURCE IHS - MARKIT SOURCE IHS - MARKIT SOURCE IHS - MARKIT
5 Economic Activity Crude oil price evolution (Brent Barrel in $) RISI Conference - Vienna March BRENT PRICE (In Dollar - last value February 2019)
6 Economic Activity Exchange rates RISI Conference - Vienna March IN DOLLAR (Last known value: Fev. 19) 1 in TURKISH LIRA (last value: Fev. 19) 1 in YUAN (last value: Fev. 19) 1 $ in REAL (last value: Fev. 19) 1,50 8,00 8,80 4,50 1,40 6,80 8,20 3,75 1,30 5,60 7,60 3,00 1,20 4,40 7,00 2,25 1,10 3,20 1,00 2,00 6,40 1,50 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19
7 The new paradigm of the Global RP market RISI Conference - Vienna March Many points of the new Chinese regulation Ban of Mixed RP imports Higher requirements about non-paper components (0.5% contamination) Imposition of a 25% tariff on the import of recovered paper from the USA Chinese imports - All grades - Qn / Qn-1 - in % Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18
8 The new paradigm of the Global RP market The Chinese imports of RP RISI Conference - Vienna March CHINESE RECOVERED PAPER IMPORTS (in million of tons) 25,7 17,
9 The new paradigm of the Global RP market Chinese imports of RP in 2018 RISI Conference - Vienna March Imports in '000 tons Year to date 2018 % / 2017 Total World ,8 Corrugated & Kraft ,1 Deinking grades ,0 High grades ,1 Mixed Grades 14-99,7
10 The new paradigm of the Global RP market The central role of Chinese imports of RP 10 RISI Conference - Vienna March 2019 RP exports in % of the collected volumes (in 2017) 50% 40% 21,7% 30% kt 20% 10% 8,9% 4,8% kt kt 21,4% 12,0% 11,7% kt kt kt North America Europe Japan 0% Exports to China Exports to others
11 The new paradigm of the Global RP market Chinese imports of RP in 2018 RISI Conference - Vienna March Imports in '000 tons Year to date 2018 % / 2017 Total World ,8 Europe ,1 USA ,5 Japan ,7 Others ,3
12 OCC domestic prices (Market changes ) RISI Conference - Vienna March RP 1.05 domestic prices (In Euros - last value Dec. 2018) USA 1.05 ($) CHINA 1.05 ($) EUROPE 1.05 ($) Source: CCB & RISI
13 A glance on the containerboard industry RISI Conference - Vienna March I. Macro Economical Data II. III. IV. Corrugated Board Development Containerboard Production & Demand Take away points
14 Corrugated board developments Shipments 2018 (9 months) 14 RISI Conference - Vienna March 2019 WORLD CORRUGATED BOARD PRODUCTION EVOLUTION (basis m2 - Source: ICCA) +1,0% % 16/15 Source: ICCA +2,1% +1,9% % 17/16 % 9M_18 / 9M_17 +2,8% +4,2% TOTAL +3,1% +2,8% +1,4% +0,3% -0,6% +1,7% Oceania +1,3% +4,7% +1,5% +3,1% +1,9% +2,2% +2,0% +5,2% Africa +0,9% Western Europe +2,5% North America +5,6% +4,5% Asia Central & Eastern Europe (inc. CIS) Latin America +3,5%
15 Corrugated board developments Shipments 2018(e) RISI Conference - Vienna March % based on tons Y17 (realised) Y18 (Estimated) World +4,3 +1,0 Asia +4,4 +0,1 Europe +4,4 +1,6 Western Europe +4,1 +1,4 Eastern Europe +5,5 +2,1 North America +3,1 +1,8 Latin America +5,2 +1,2 Others +11,5 +2,2
16 A glance on the containerboard industry RISI Conference - Vienna March I. Macro Economical Data II. Corrugated Board Development III. Containerboard Production & Demand IV. Take away points
17 The containerboard industry Highlight on the Global containerboard supply RISI Conference - Vienna March GLOBAL CONTAINERBOARD CAPACITIES (Year in kt metric & %) Latin America % Africa % Others % North America % East. Europe % Global capacities: 192,8 millon tons Asia % West. Europe %
18 Containerboard output WCO production during 2018 RISI Conference - Vienna March CONTAINERBOARD PRODUCTION (Quarterly - WCO sample of countries 45% of the Global production) CONTAINERBOARD PRODUCTION ( % Qn Qy / Qn-1 Qy-1 - WCO sample of countries 45% of the Global production) Millions of metric tons % +5% +4% +3% +2% 17 +1% 17 +0% 16 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q % Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 % ALL GRADES % RCCM % KL & SCF
19 Containerboard demand Projections RISI Conference - Vienna March CONTAINERBOARD CAPACITY EVOLUTIONS ( in million tons - Yn / Yn-1) Million of metric tons ,0 4, ,8 1,9 1,7 1,5 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,8 0,2 0,3 0,03 0,03 0,03 Asia Europe North America Latin America Others 2018 (e) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)
20 The containerboard industry Highlight on the Global containerboard markets RISI Conference - Vienna March GLOBAL CONTAINERBOARD MARKETS (Year in kt metric & %) GLOBAL CONTAINERBOARD MARKETS (Year 2018(e) - in kt metric & %) Latin America kt 7% Africa kt 2% Others kt 1% Latin America % Africa % Others % North America kt 30% Global market in 2000(e): 94,5 millon tons Asia kt 31% North America % Global market in 2018(e): 171,9 millon tons Asia % East. Europe % East. Europe kt 6% West. Europe kt 23% West. Europe %
21 Containerboard demand Projections RISI Conference - Vienna March % based on tons Y18 Y19 * Y20 * World +1,0 +2,4 +2,8 Asia +0,1 +2,8 +3,2 Europe +1,6 +1,8 +2,0 Western Europe +1,4 +1,5 +1,6 Eastern Europe +2,1 +2,5 +2,7 North America +1,8 +2,6 +2,8 Latin America +1,2 +1,6 +2,0 Others +2,2 +2,3 +2,4 * forecasted in December 2018
22 Containerboard demand & capacities Comparisons RISI Conference - Vienna March CONTAINERBOARD CAPACITY & DEMAND EVOLUTIONS ( in million tons 2018 / 2020) Million of metric tons ,07 5,87 3, ,73 2,04 1,44 0,99 0,49 0,27 0,06 Asia Europe North America Latin America Others Demand evolution Capacity evolution
23 A glance on the containerboard industry RISI Conference - Vienna March I. Macro Economical Data II. III. Corrugated Board Development Containerboard Production & Demand IV. Take away points
24 Take away points RISI Conference - Vienna March Macro Economic Situation In many developed countries, growth rates have risen close to their potential, while unemployment rates have dropped to historical lows. The global economy in 2019 is characterized by numerous political uncertainties: trade dispute USA China, BREXIT, Italian budgetary policy, political development in Turkey and much more. Global economic growth could therefore be weaker in 2019 than in 2018 Corrugated Board Market Still a growth is expected in the coming years (2019: +1% in Germany). World wide related E- commerce turnover will double from 2018 (2,8 bill. US$) to 2021 (4,9 bill. US $). Plastic substitution is gaining pace. Containerboard New capacities are coming on stream. Supply may exceed demand for a (short) period of time (but what about closures of old PM or delay of capacities?) Supply will meet demand very soon.
25 RISI Conference - Vienna March Thanks for your attention
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