Tim Hunter Christchurch & Canterbury Tourism Steve Clarke Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA) Disaster & Rebuild 16 January 2015

Transcription

1 Tim Hunter Christchurch & Canterbury Tourism Steve Clarke Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA) Disaster & Rebuild 16 January 2015

2 Every country has a disaster paradigm Flood Tropical Storm Bush Fire Terrorist Attack Earthquake Tsunami

3 This was our big fear

4 When it happened it was not the Alpine Fault

5

6 Tourism role in inner city recovery 2010: 900,000+ international visitors to our city 3.2 million guest nights in commercial accommodation 1 million guest nights in private accommodation We have a third fewer visitors today The inner city is challenging for some Asian visitors are most wary It took two years to get most of the inner city visitor attractions back Travel sellers remain reticent to put clients into inner city accommodation

7 Our biggest conundrum An imperfect city at the hub of a perfect province Ellerslie 2014

8 Tourism Recovery Status Around a ¼ of global travel sellers have removed Christchurch from NZ itineraries Our competitors have taken advantage of our misfortune In 2011 and 2012 Tourism NZ were reluctant to market Christchurch at all Our largest holiday market (Australia) collapsed by 50% Shift of inbound and domestic air seats to Queenstown has slowed recovery Initial fall-off from Asia markets of Japan, China, Korea and India was severe but more recent recovery has been good Other long haul markets recovered well and are only constrained by air capacity and bed supply

9 Shift in Tasman Air Seats the Christchurch loss became Queenstown s gain, and some 900,000 Tasman Seats into Christchurch 275,000 Tasman Seats into Queenstown 850, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 75, ,000 50, ,000 25, ,

10 International Guest Nights Christchurch vs All of New Zealand 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% -45% -50% -55% -60% -65% -70% -75% 7% Jan-10 13% 7% 5% 3% 5% 2% 0% 2% 0% Mar-10 May-10-4% 2% 1% 3% Jul-10 2% -3% Sep-10 2% 1% -4% -1% 1% -2% 0% -6% -2% -4% -4% Nov-10-15% -17% -14% Jan-11-8% -37% Note: this data compares growth performance vs same month of previous year up to January 2012, from February 2012 onwards compares growth to prequake results of same month of 2010 Mar-11-72% May-11-55% -63% Jul-11-51% -51% -3% -42% 5% Sep-11-44% 31% 15% Nov-11 5% -42% 3% -1% Jan-12-49% -46% -53% Mar-12-8% -10% 2% -4%-3% May-12-59% -59% -59% -62% -6% Jul-12-4% -48% -50% -53% -55% International Guest Nights All NZ Sep-12 5% -8% -3% Nov-12-42% -47% 7% -38% Jan-13-3% -1% Mar-13-47% -49% -55% 4% 9% 11% May-13 2% Jul-13 6% -39% -41% -43% -44% -44% -2% Sep-13 6% 3% Nov-13 11% -31% -33% -35% -34% International Guest Nights Christchurch 4% 4% Jan-14-1% Mar-14-44% -43% -47% 10% 11% 12% May-14 6% 7% 3% Jul-14 Sep-14-33% -35% -39% -39% -38% -27% 15% -21%

11 Visitors have different perspectives Younger travellers and Australians are the most OK with the damaged state of inner city Curiosity as to how a city recovers visitors want to hear the human story Quake City is an important attraction it helps visitors understand our earthquake story 2013/14 summer visitor survey indicated 30% of international visitors did not think the city was yet ready for visitors

12 Transitional City Issues Stalemate over restoration or rebuild of Christchurch Cathedral has delayed re-development of the Square Delays to commencement of Anchor Project construction phase (14 projects) is impacting on private sector investment confidence Underground infrastructure repairs have delayed the fixing footpaths, parks and roads Christchurch City Council are critically short of funding to complete all repairs

13 Broader Economic & Social Impacts Functioning without a CBD easier than we thought Little long term impact on city population Lowest level of unemployment in New Zealand Demographic changes have impacted on school locations GDP running 2-3% points higher than national indices Export economy has stayed strong driven by dairy, meat exports, wool, timber, grain and coal Residential Red Zone has displaced around 10,000 households

14 Residential Red Zone (where no further housing occupation is possible)

15 Broader Economic & Social Impacts Housing shortage remains a problem especially for low income families and students Housing rental costs have escalated by 35% Demographic concentration has moved west substantially impacting on road congestion No confirmed plans for the vacated red zone areas Ground movement has created new flood prone areas

16 Visitor Recovery Forecasts Guest Nights in Commercial Accommodation 2018/ /14 Domestic Nights CHC +22% Intl Nights CHC +48% - 200, , , ,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000

17 Overall Accommodation Situation in Christchurch Category of Accommodation Rooms Pre Earthquakes Rooms Now Variance to pre EQ No of Properties (now) Hotels 4,265 1,870-56% 20 Motels 1,805 1,845 +2% 119 Backpackers % 27 Other 1, % 127 All Accommodation 7,851 5,102-35% 293

18 Accommodation Interest

19 Accommodation Investment Prospectus

20 Relationship between Air Capacity, Bed Supply and Guest Nights Guest Night Trend Line Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q CHC Accomm Index CHC Air Capac Index Guest Night Index