The European Hotel Market

Transcription

1 The European Hotel Market Boutique and Lifestyle Hotel Summit 2017 Sophie Colvin Business Development 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

2 STR, collecting data since 1985 Performance Reports Occ, ADR, RevPAR Supply/Demand Revenue P&L Supply Reports Existing supply Future supply Pipeline Characteristics Forecast Reports Main KPIs Macro economic input Micro economic input 5 years/6 quarters/18 months STR Coverage Our Sample +56K Hotels +7.6M Hotel Rooms +182 Countries +2K Markets 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.

3 STR Coverage Our Census Database Branded vs. Unbranded Rooms % Share, March % 33% 40% 60% 54% 46% 39% 61% 38% 62% 52% 48% Branded Unbranded 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.

4 Supply and demand equilibrium a mixed picture Global Supply & Demand % Change 2016 Supply Demand 4.4% 5.1% 1.6% 1.7% 0.4% 3.5% 3.2% 0.9% 1.4% 2.1% 1.0% 3.4% 1.6% 2.7% -2.3% -2.6% North America & Caribbean Central America South America Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia & Oceania

5 2016 was a good year for most regions except the Middle East USD, Europe in EUR, Constant Currency, Full Year 2016 North America +3.5% Central America +2.2% Northern Africa +6.5% Europe +2.1% Middle East Asia -9.2% -0.3% South America +5.3% Southern Africa +6.8% Australia & Oceania +3.5%

6 Europe

7 A steady year Europe Euro, Constant Currency, % Occupancy +0.6% ADR +1.5% 78.7 RevPAR +2.1%

8 But recovery has differed by country 2007 RevPAR Indexed to STR. All Rights Reserved.

9 The financial crisis hits 2008 RevPAR Indexed to STR. All Rights Reserved.

10 and then begins to hurt 2009 RevPAR Indexed to STR. All Rights Reserved.

11 Germany shows green shoots 2010 RevPAR Indexed to STR. All Rights Reserved.

12 The UK and France follow, led by gateway cities 2011 RevPAR Indexed to STR. All Rights Reserved.

13 European Debt crisis puts the breaks on 2012 RevPAR Indexed to STR. All Rights Reserved.

14 Demand recovers but ADR subdued 2013 RevPAR Indexed to STR. All Rights Reserved.

15 Continued demand growth, particularly in Euromed 2014 RevPAR Indexed to STR. All Rights Reserved.

16 Occupancies back and peak levels and ADR recovers 2015 RevPAR Indexed to STR. All Rights Reserved.

17 Iberian peninsula thrives 2016 RevPAR Indexed to STR. All Rights Reserved.

18 Mainly positive, but terror effect clearly visible Local Currency RevPAR % Change 2016 Helsinki 7 15 St. Petersburg 7 Edinburgh 16 Copenhagen 14 Moscow Dublin 16 Amsterdam 3 London Brussels 3 Berlin 11 5 Prague Warsaw Paris Vienna Zurich Budapest 9 12 Bucharest Barcelona 10 Lisbon 8 7 Madrid Rome 2 10 Belgrade Athens Istanbul

19 Trading down across the continent? Europe Occupancy and ADR % Change, Constant Currency 2016 Occupancy ADR 3.2% 3.3% 2.5% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% -0.3% -2.2% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale & Economy

20 A positive start to 2017 Europe Euro, Constant Currency, March 2017 YTD 63.5% Occupancy ADR RevPAR +4.1% +2.3% +6.5%

21 Europe is mostly green Local Currency RevPAR % March 2017 YTD Helsinki 5 2 St. Petersburg 7 Edinburgh 18 Copenhagen 3 Moscow Dublin 6 Amsterdam 5 London 11 5 Brussels 6 Berlin 17 7 Prague Warsaw 16 Kiev Paris Vienna Zurich Budapest 9 8 Bucharest Barcelona 14 Lisbon Madrid Rome 3 13 Belgrade 12 Athens -8 Istanbul

22 Europe Branded vs. Unbranded by Class Euro, Constant Currency, RevPAR % Change, March 2017 YTD RevPAR %Chg Branded RevPAR %Chg Unbranded 10.1% 3.4% 5.8% 7.4% 4.2% 7.9% 8.1% 4.9% 6.4% 5.8% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale & Economy

23 Europe a positive long term picture EUR, CC, R12, December 2005 March % Occupancy % change ADR % change RevPAR % change 5% 0% -5% 80 months of positive RevPAR Growth!!! -10% -15%

24 Focus on key European markets

25 2017 Forecast a good year expected!

26 Hot market Barcelona: Demand outpaces supply

27 Brussels - occupancy beginning to recover % change Previous Year Occupancy ADR 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% 2016 Brussels bombing Nice attack -60% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb EUR

28 Paris occupancy and ADR starting to stabilize? % change Previous Year Occupancy ADR 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% 2016 Brussels bombing Euro football Nice attack -60% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb EUR

29 London - High occupancy & yield nights declined significantly Compression analysis Day Count % -17% ADR ( ) <70 70>=80 80>=90 >=90 Occupancy (%) Day Count ADR ( )

30 Pipeline

31 Europe Pipeline, Top 10 March 2017 Report, Pipeline by Room Count Existing Pipeline Poland Switzerland Netherlands Russia Turkey France United Kingdom Spain Germany Thousands

32 UK Pipeline What 478 projects and 47k new rooms looks like in London

33 The Airbnb effect on hotel performance

34 Markets included: Boston Los Angeles Miami New Orleans San Francisco Seattle Washington, D.C. Barcelona London Mexico City Paris Sydney Tokyo üclick HERE to download

35 Largest Lodging Companies by Rooms/Listings

36 Largest Lodging Companies by Rooms/Listings Less Unavailable, Shared Rooms, Private Rooms and Large Listings

37 Percent of Airbnb Demand for 7+ Days Airbnb travellers typically have longer length of stay than hotel guests

38 Hotel Supply and Demand Growth July 2016, 12-Month Moving Average

39 Hotel and Airbnb Occupancy July 2016, 12-Month Moving Average

40 US Hotel and Airbnb ADR July 2016, 12-Month Moving Average

41 Airbnb Analysis Conclusion Airbnb has more room to grow in most markets whereas hotels have already carved out an established presence Airbnb occupancy generally was the highest in markets where hotels had high occupancy. Hotel occupancy was significantly higher than Airbnb occupancy. While Airbnb s share of total accommodation supply (Airbnb units & hotel rooms) was growing its share of market demand and revenues still was generally below. Airbnb guests typically stayed longer than the average hotel guest, with roughly half of Airbnb room nights coming from trips of seven days or longer.

42 Thank STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.