Hotel Association of North Texas. Karrie Keen Director, Destination and Trend Operations
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1 Hotel Association of North Texas Karrie Keen Director, Destination and Trend Operations
2 To view this presentation, go to HotelNewsNow.com and click on Industry Analysis then Hotel data presentations.
3 Agenda U.S. Overview U.S. Chain Scales Texas Region Overview Dallas and Fort Worth-Arlington Overview Development Pipeline & Performance Projections
4 U.S. Overview
5 The U.S. Continues on its Path of Improvement % Change Hotels 52.3 k Room Supply 1.0 bn 0.4% Room Demand mn 3.2% Occupancy 62.3% 2.9% ADR $ % RevPAR $ % Room Revenue $67.4 bn 7.7% Total US - Key Statistics YTD July 2012
6 Demand Growing at a Slower Pace June % Supply % Change Demand % Change Feb % Jan % Oct % Mar % Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to July 2012 Aug % Aug % 3.7% 0.4%
7 ADR Growth Outpacing Occupancy Growth Jan June Occ % Chg ADR % Chg Mar Aug Oct Sept Jan Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to July 2012 Apr % 3.4%
8 Slowly Creeping Up to Peak Levels Occ (%) ADR ($) Peak $ Sept Peak 64.5% Feb 1997 $ July % July 2012 Occupancy and ADR Twelve Month Moving Average July 2012
9 Millions Transient Demand Continues to Outpace Prior Year Demand Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels). Monthly Transient Demand 2007 Through July 2012
10 Transient ADR Still Lagging Behind Peak $200 $ $180 $170 $160 $150 $140 $130 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels). Monthly Transient ADR 2007 Through July 2012
11 Millions Group Demand Higher in June than Previous Years Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels). Monthly Group Demand 2007 Through July 2012
12 Group ADR Still Seeing Effects of ADR Declines $ $170 $160 $150 $140 $130 $120 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels). Monthly Group ADR 2007 Through July 2012
13 Transient ADR Pushes Premium to Group ADR $200 $180 Transient Group $160 $140 $ NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels). Transient vs. Group Monthly ADR ($) January 2007 July 2012
14 Rate Disparity Starting to Normalize $180 $170 $160 $150 $140 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $30.08 $ $ $ $ $ $ $130 Transient Actual ADR ($) by Customer Segment Year to Date July 2012 Group NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels).
15 Dallas Reported Fourth Highest Room Supply Growth Room Supply Percent Change July 2012 YTD
16 Dallas in the Top 10 Among Demand Growth Room Demand Percent Change July 2012 YTD
17 U.S. Chain Scales
18 Upper Midscale Reporting the Most Growth Supply -1.9 Demand Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale -5.4 Midscale Economy Supply / Demand Percent Change July YTD 2011
19 Positive Results Across the Board % 4.8 $ $ $ % 72.1% % 3.8 $ % 2.6 $ % 4.1 $ Occupancy ADR -2 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Occupancy / ADR Percent Change July 2012 YTD
20 Double Digit Room Revenue Growth for Upper Midscale 15 RevPAR 10.9 Room Revenue Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy RevPAR / Room Revenue Percent Change July 2012 YTD
21 Texas Region Overview
22 All Markets in Texas Report New Supply Texas West Texas North San Antonio Dallas Ft Worth-Arlington Houston Texas South Texas East Austin Supply Percent Change July YTD
23 Houston Leading the State in Demand Growth Houston Texas West Texas South San Antonio Texas North Dallas Texas East Austin Ft Worth-Arlington Demand Percent Change July YTD
24 All Markets Reporting Occupancy Growth Despite New Supply Houston Texas South San Antonio Texas West Texas North Texas East Dallas Austin Ft Worth-Arlington Occupancy Percent Change July 2012 YTD
25 Texas West Pushing Rates the Hardest Texas West Texas South Texas North Austin Houston Texas East San Antonio Dallas Ft Worth-Arlington ADR Percent Change July 2012 YTD
26 Texas West Wins Top Spot in RevPAR Growth Texas West Texas South Houston Austin Texas North San Antonio Texas East Dallas Ft Worth-Arlington RevPAR Percent Change July 2012 YTD
27 Oil Boom Helping Grow Revenue in Texas West Texas West Texas South Houston Texas North San Antonio Austin Texas East Dallas Ft Worth-Arlington Room Revenue Percent Change July 2012 YTD
28 Dallas Market/Sub-Market Overview
29 Upper Upscale Leading Growth Among the Chain Scale 10 8 Supply Demand Luxury Upper Upscale -0.5 Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Supply / Demand Percent Change July YTD 2011
30 Highest ADR Growth Among Economy Properties Occupancy ADR % % % 3.8 $ % -0.8 Luxury $ % $ Upper Upscale 0.6 $97.63 Upscale % $ Upper Midscale 0.6 $62.67 Midscale Economy Occupancy / ADR Percent Change July 2012 YTD
31 Luxury Segment Reporting a Slight Decline in Revenue RevPAR Room Revenue -5 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy RevPAR / Room Revenue Percent Change July 2012 YTD
32 Highest Supply Growth in the Downtown Area (Omni) Dallas/Market Center Irving South/Grand Prairie East Plano/Richardson Dallas, TX Denton/Lewisville/McKinney Irving North Addison/LBJ Freeway West Plano/ Frisco Dallas South/East Farmers Branch/Stemmons Fwy N Supply Percent Change July YTD 2011
33 More Rooms Available Downtown Allows for Higher Growth Dallas/Market Center Dallas South/East Irving South/Grand Prairie Addison/LBJ Freeway Dallas, TX Farmers Branch/Stemmons Fwy N Denton/Lewisville/McKinney East Plano/Richardson Irving North West Plano/ Frisco Demand Percent Change July YTD 2011
34 West Plano/Frisco 2 nd Highest Occupancy Despite Decline Dallas South/East 53.4% Irving South/Grand Prairie 63.6% 4.8 Addison/LBJ Freeway Denton/Lewisville/McKinney Farmers Branch/Stemmons Fwy N Dallas, TX Dallas/Market Center Irving North East Plano/Richardson West Plano/ Frisco % % 61.8% 67.4% 62.1% 57.9% % 64.8% Occupancy Percent Change July 2012 YTD
35 Downtown Area Remains Flat West Plano/ Frisco $ Denton/Lewisville/McKinney Dallas South/East Irving North East Plano/Richardson Irving South/Grand Prairie Dallas, TX Dallas/Market Center Addison/LBJ Freeway Farmers Branch/Stemmons Fwy N $66.76 $80.36 $94.10 $72.64 $76.55 $ $ $ $ ADR Percent Change July 2012 YTD
36 Occupancy Growth Pushing RevPAR Growth for Dallas South/East Dallas South/East Denton/Lewisville/McKinney Irving South/Grand Prairie Dallas, TX Addison/LBJ Freeway Dallas/Market Center Farmers Branch/Stemmons Fwy N Irving North West Plano/ Frisco East Plano/Richardson RevPAR Percent Change July 2012 YTD
37 Over Half the Submarkets Report Revenue Growth Dallas South/East 9.2 Dallas/Market Center 8.6 Denton/Lewisville/McKinney 8.5 Irving South/Grand Prairie Dallas, TX Addison/LBJ Freeway East Plano/Richardson 0.0 Irving North -0.2 Farmers Branch/Stemmons Fwy N -1.1 West Plano/ Frisco Room Revenue Percent Change July 2012 YTD
38 Transient Occupancy Trending Higher Than Group Transient Transient vs. Group Monthly Occupancy (%) January 2007 July 2012 Group NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels).
39 Transient ADR Pushes Past Group ADR in 2012 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Transient Actual ADR ($) by Customer Segment Year to Date July Group NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels).
40 Rooms In Construction Down by Half Phase July 2012 July 2011 Difference % Change In Construction 755 1, % Planned Pipeline 3,942 4, % Active Pipeline 4,697 6,177-1, % Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases Active Development Pipeline Rooms Change From Last Year
41 Properties In Construction Property Name Rooms Tract Projected Open Date Unnamed McKinney Gateway 186 Denton/Lewisville/McKinney N/A Homewood Suites Dallas Downtown 130 Dallas/Market Center June 2013 Home2 Suites Dallas Frisco 122 West Plano/Frisco October 2012 Luxury Collection The Joule Hotel 121 Dallas/Market Center December 2012 Hampton Inn & Suites Trophy Club 93 Denton/Lewisville/McKinney May 2013 NYLO Dallas South Side 76 Dallas/Market Center August 2012 Spa Castle Hotel 27 Denton/Lewisville/McKinney September 2012
42 Fort Worth-Arlington Market/Sub-Market Overview
43 Midscale Properties Reporting Declines Supply Demand Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Supply / Demand Percent Change July YTD 2011
44 ADR Growth Among the Economy Properties Occupancy ADR 62.3% 72.4% 66.4% $ % $71.04 $93.21 $ Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy % 0.9 $41.43 Occupancy / ADR Percent Change July 2012 YTD
45 Midscale Segment Seeing Room Revenue Declines 10 RevPAR Room Revenue Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy -8.1 RevPAR / Room Revenue Percent Change July 2012 YTD
46 Demand Growth Exceeding Supply Growth for Most Supply Demand Fort Worth- Arlington, TX -3.0 Bedford/Grapevine Fort Worth South/West Arlington, TX Downtown/I-820 West Fort Worth North Supply / Demand Percent Change July YTD 2011
47 Fort Worth North Only Area Report ADR Improvement % Occupancy ADR % $ Fort Worth- Arlington, TX 66.4% -2.8 $ Bedford/Grapevine Fort Worth South/West % $61.99 $ Arlington, TX % $ Downtown/I-820 West $ % Fort Worth North Occupancy / ADR Percent Change July 2012 YTD
48 Fort Worth South/West Report Highest Gains 10 RevPAR 7.0 Room Revenue Fort Bedford/Grapevine Worth-Arlington, TX Fort Worth South/West Arlington, TX Downtown/I-820 West Fort Worth North RevPAR / Room Revenue Percent Change July 2012 YTD
49 Group Segment Stronger than Transient Transient Group NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels). Transient vs. Group Monthly Occupancy (%) January 2007 July 2012
50 Group Rates Exceed Transient Rates Since 2007 $160 $155 $150 $145 $140 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $130 $125 Transient Actual ADR ($) by Customer Segment Year to Date July 2012 Group NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels).
51 Minimal New Supply Phase July 2012 July 2011 Difference % Change In Construction % Planned Pipeline 1,669 1, % Active Pipeline 1,855 2, % Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases Active Development Pipeline Rooms Change From Last Year
52 New Supply Downtown Property Name Rooms Tract Projected Open Date Homewood Suites Fort Worth Medical Center 122 Downtown/I-820 West July 2013 Comfort Lake Worth 64 Downtown/I-820 West August 2012 Properties In Construction
53 Development Pipeline & Performance Projections
54 Starting to See More Rooms In Construction Than Prior Years Phase July 2012 July 2011 Difference % Change In Construction 61,490 54,825 6, % Planned Pipeline 239, ,245-28, % Active Pipeline 300, ,070-22, % Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases Active Development Pipeline Rooms Change From Last Year
55 Upscale and Upper Midscale Remain a Popular Segment Luxury Upper Upscale In Construction Final Planning Planning Upscale Active Pipeline by Chain Scale In Thousands July Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
56 Unemployment Decreasing but Still Affects Travel F 2013F Real GDP +1.7% +2.3% +2.6% CPI +3.2% +2.4% +2.2% Corporate Profits +7.9% +5.0% +5.8% Disp. Personal Income +1.3% +1.4% +1.9% Unemployment Rate 8.5% 8.2% 7.7% U.S. Economic Outlook Blue Chip Economic Indicators April 2012
57 Supply Slowly on the Rise Supply % Chg Demand % Chg P 2013P 20 Yr Average Supply/Demand Percent Change P
58 Occupancy Growing at a Slower Pace P 2013P Occupancy Percent P
59 More Growth for ADR $125 $100 $97.82 $ $ $98.07 $98.06 $ $ $ $91.04 $75 $ P 2013P Average Daily Rate (In Dollars) P
60 ADR Best Chance to Grow RevPAR Outlook 2012 Forecast 2013 Forecast Supply 0.5% 1.1% Demand 2.0% 1.8% Occupancy 1.5% 0.7% ADR 4.0% 4.6% RevPAR 5.5% 5.4% Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% change vs. Prior Year)
61 Highest RevPAR Growth Expected for the Luxury Scale 2012 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury 2.6% 5.1% 7.9% Upper Upscale 1.5% 4.2% 5.7% Upscale 2.3% 4.6% 7.1% Upper Midscale 1.4% 4.0% 5.5% Midscale 2.8% 1.4% 4.3% Economy 1.4% 3.1% 4.5% Independent 0.5% 3.5% 4.0% Total United States 1.5% 4.0% 5.5% Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2012F by Chain Scale
62 What if ADR Grew at the Rate of Inflation? $120 $110 $100 $90 $84.66 Nominal ADR $87.07 $88.45 $90.46 If year 2000 ADR had increased by CPI each year Yr 2000, Grown by CPI $92.87 $96.02 $99.12 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $80 $84.66 $83.62 $82.54 $82.67 $86.19 $91.04 $97.82 $ $ $98.07 $98.06 $ $ $ Note: 2011 & 2012 CPI forecast from Blue Chip Economic Indicators Actual vs. Inflation Adjusted F
63 or x3331
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