U.S. Hotel Industry Performance HBI Annual Conference

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "U.S. Hotel Industry Performance HBI Annual Conference"

Godwin Jones
5 years ago
Views:

U.S. Hotel Industry Performance HBI Annual Conference February 17, 2017 Jeff Higley VP/Editorial Director jeff@str.com @jeffhigley1 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

1 U.S. Hotel Industry Performance HBI Annual Conference February 17, 2017 Jeff Higley VP/Editorial 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied. 1

2 Data Dashboard>View All Data Presentations 2

3 About STR The Data 3

4 Total U.S. Review 4

5 2016: Incredibly Average % Change 29 Yr. Avg. Change Room Supply 1.6% +1.8% Room Demand 1.7% +2.0% Occupancy 66.7% 0.1% +0.2% A.D.R. $ % +3.1% RevPAR $83 3.2% +3.3% Room Revenue 4.8% +5.2% December 2016 YTD, Total US Results 5

6 US 2016 RevPAR: 3 Markets Dragged US Results Total US YTD: +3.2% NYC: - 1.8% Miami: - 5.5% Houston: -12.4% Total US excluding NYC, Miami & Houston: +3.8% *RevPAR % Change December 2016 YTD 6

7 Demand Growth Slows; Supply Growth Increases To 1.6% Supply % Change Demand % Change Total U.S., Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/ /2016 7

8 Occupancy Growth Rapidly Approaching 0% Occ % Change ADR % Change Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/ /

9 Declining Occupancies & Rising ADRs: Not Unprecedented OCC % Change ADR % Change Months 42 Months Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/ /1999 9

10 RevPAR Growth: Slowing Down After 6 Years Of Growth Months 31 Mo 56 Months 82 Months Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 1/ /

11 RevPAR: Erratic Monthly Numbers, But Trend Is Slowing 10 8 Monthly 12MMA *Total U.S., RevPAR % Change by month and 12 MMA, 1/ /

12 Chain Scale & Location Review Year-end

2016 STR Chain Scales: Sample of brands Luxury Fairmont, Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, JW Marriott Upper Upscale Sheraton, Embassy Suites, Hyatt, Marriott Upscale Radisson, Hilton Garden Inn, Residence

13 2016 STR Chain Scales: Sample of brands Luxury Fairmont, Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, JW Marriott Upper Upscale Sheraton, Embassy Suites, Hyatt, Marriott Upscale Radisson, Hilton Garden Inn, Residence Inn, Springhill Suites, Homewood Suites, Courtyard, Best Western Premier Upper Midscale Fairfield Inn/Suites, Holiday Inn, Clarion, Hampton Inn/Suites, Best Western Plus, Country Inn & Suites Midscale Best Western, Candlewood Suites, Quality Inn/Suites, La Quinta, Sleep Inn, Red Lion Economy Americas Best Value Inn, Country Hearth Inn, Jameson Inn, Extended Stay America, Motel 6, Red Roof, Days Inn, Microtel Complete list: 13

Scales: Supply Growth Outpaces Demand Growth For Most 5.6 Supply % Change 5.0 Demand % Change 2.8 2.4 1.6 1.4 2.1 1.9 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.

14 Scales: Supply Growth Outpaces Demand Growth For Most 5.6 Supply % Change 5.0 Demand % Change Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Independents *Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, December 2016 YTD 14

High End Hotels Still Very Busy (But A Little Less So) 74.9 75.2 74.2 74.3 73.8 74.3 2016 2015 67.4 67.5 59.4 59.4 57.9 58.

15 High End Hotels Still Very Busy (But A Little Less So) Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Independents *OCC %, by Scale, December YTD 2016 &

16 Locations: Urban Leads Supply & Demand Supply Demand Urban Suburban Airport Interstate Resort Small Metro *Supply / Demand % Change, by Location, December 2016 YTD 16

17 Locations: What s Up With Interstate Occupancy? Occupancy ADR Urban Suburban Airport Interstate Resort Small Metro Occupancy / ADR Percent Change; December 2016 YTD 17

18 Locations: Rev, Rev, Revved Up Revenue Across Board RevPAR Room Revenue Urban Suburban Airport Interstate Resort Small Metro RevPAR/ Room Revenue Percent Change; December 2016 YTD 18

19 Segmentation 19

20 Transient: ADR Growth Slowing Despite High Occupancy 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Demand % Change ADR % Change Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 *Transient Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/ /

21 6% 5% 4% 3% Group Performance: No Demand Growth To Speak Of Demand % Change ADR % Change 2% Jewish Holiday Shift 1% -1% -2% Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 *Group Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/ /

22 Markets 22

23 New Supply Affects NYC, Houston, Miami Market OCC % ADR % Change Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA Nashville, TN Atlanta, GA Tampa/St Petersburg, FL Denver, CO Phoenix, AZ Chicago, IL New Orleans, LA New York, NY Miami/Hialeah, FL Houston, TX * December 2016 YTD ADR % Change in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing ADR % Markets 23

NYC RevPAR: Mostly Bad. New Supply Looming Large 8.8 3.2 3.7-2.4-4.5-4.9-4.0-1.5-1.7-3.7-6.5-7.

24 NYC RevPAR: Mostly Bad. New Supply Looming Large Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec * NYC RevPAR % Change, by Month, 12/ /

25 Houston: As Oil Goes, So Does Demand $/gal % $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 Crude Oil Futures Price / Barrel (LHS) Demand % Change (RHS) *Monthly Oil price Future / Barrel vs. Houston, TX Room Demand % Change 1/ /

26 Pipeline 26

27 Pipeline: Is This When Overbuilding Happened? Phase % Change In Construction % Final Planning % Planning % Under Contract % *Total US Pipeline, by Phase, 000s Rooms, December 2015 and

28 Thousands U/C Pipeline Is Growing But Still Below Prior Peak K High: Dec K Low: May 11 50K Dec K *Total US Pipeline; Rooms In Construction, in 000s; Jan 2006 December

29 Limited Service Construction Is The Name Of The Game % Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated *US Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction, 000s Rooms, by Scale, December

30 Construction In Top 26 Markets: 23 With 2%+ Of Supply Market Rooms U/C % Of Existing Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA 456 1% Orlando, FL 1,552 1% Oahu Island, HI 410 1% Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 763 2% St Louis, MO-IL 876 2% Las Vegas, NV 3,950 2% Chicago, IL 3,212 3% New Orleans, LA 1,211 3% Phoenix, AZ 1,962 3% San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 1,825 4% Atlanta, GA 3,421 4% Washington, DC-MD-VA 4,069 4% Detroit, MI 1,662 4% San Diego, CA 2,371 4% Anaheim/Santa Ana, CA 2,533 4% Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 2,114 5% Boston, MA 2,764 5% Houston, TX 4,664 5% Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA 6,069 6% Philadelphia, PA-NJ 3,004 6% Miami/Hialeah, FL 3,579 7% Nashville, TN 3,401 9% Dallas, TX 7,101 9% Denver, CO 4,596 10% Seattle, WA 5,219 12% New York, NY 15,333 13% *US Pipeline, Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply, December

Top 26 Markets Have 47% Of U/C Rooms In Construction Final Planning 121.5 Planning 88.1 77.2 69.5 98.8 105.

31 Top 26 Markets Have 47% Of U/C Rooms In Construction Final Planning Planning Top 26 Markets Rest of the US *US Pipeline, Rooms ( 000s), Top 26 Markets vs. All Other Markets, December

32 YE 2016 Transaction Almanac 32

33 Billions Transaction Volume: A Step Back $35 $30 $29.8 $26.3 $25 $22.8 $23.4 $20 $19.4 $16.8 $18.6 $15 $10 $5 $5.1 $3.5 $3.3 $6.9 $13.2 $9.5 $3.1 $13.1 $12.5 $10.4 $

34 Thousands Average Price per Room: Keep on Climbing! $300 $250 $251 $238 $219 $200 $174 $189 $181 $190 $150 $152 $122 $124 $125 $100 $87 $94 $87 $76 $100 $72 $50 $

35 Thousands Total Investment per Room (Including Additional Capital) $300 $250 $249 $257 $277 $200 $206 $187 $203 $221 $217 $150 $133 $158 $143 $134 $100 $102 $110 $97 $101 $96 $50 $

36 2016 / 2017 Forecast 36

37 Notable Calendar Shifts Impacting Lodging Performance Data in 2017: Easter: Jewish Holidays: From March to April (affects Q1/Q2) From October to September (affects Q3/Q4) January had two fewer Weekend days (Net -) Notable Market Level Events / Comps: Super Bowl: From San Francisco To Houston San Francisco: Super Bowl Shift and Moscone Center Renovation Los Angeles: Porter Ranch Gas Leak Washington, D.C.: Inauguration (January) East Tennessee: Wild Fires (November) East Coast: Hurricane Matthew (October) 37

38 Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2017F 2018F Outlook 2017 Forecast 2018 Forecast Supply 2.0% 2.2% Demand 1.7% 2.0% Occupancy -0.3% -0.2% ADR 2.8% 2.8% RevPAR 2.5% 2.6% 38

39 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2017F by Chain Scale 2017 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (% chg) Luxury -0.4% 2.5% 2.1% Upper Upscale -0.2% 2.5% 2.3% Upscale -1.1% 2.5% 1.3% Upper Midscale -0.7% 2.3% 1.6% Midscale 0.1% 2.4% 2.5% Economy 0.0% 2.7% 2.7% Independent -0.3% 3.0% 2.7% Total United States -0.3% 2.8% 2.5% 39

Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2018F by Chain Scale 2018 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (% chg) Luxury -0.2% 3.0% 2.

40 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2018F by Chain Scale 2018 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (% chg) Luxury -0.2% 3.0% 2.8% Upper Upscale -0.1% 2.8% 2.7% Upscale -0.7% 2.5% 1.7% Upper Midscale -0.6% 2.5% 1.9% Midscale -0.2% 2.5% 2.2% Economy -0.1% 2.3% 2.3% Independent -0.2% 2.8% 2.7% Total United States -0.2% 2.8% 2.6% 40

41 2017 Year End RevPAR Forecast -5% to 0% 0% to 5% 5% to 10% Houston, TX Miami-Hialeah, FL New York, NY Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA Atlanta, GA Boston, MA Chicago, IL Dallas, TX Denver, CO Detroit, MI Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI Nashville, TN New Orleans, LA Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA Oahu Island, HI Orlando, FL Philadelphia, PA-NJ Phoenix, AZ San Diego, CA San Francisco/San Mateo, CA Seattle, WA St. Louis, MO-IL Top 25 US Markets, Nov 2016 Forecast (Markets sorted alphabetically) 41

42 Odds and Ends 42

43 The new Marriott House Of Brands 12/

44 World s Largest Hotel Companies Scale Matters! Parent Company Properties Rooms Marriott International 5, ,2034 Hilton Worldwide 4, ,087 InterContinental Hotels Group 4, ,816 Wyndham Worldwide 7, ,552 Accor 3, ,729 Choice Hotels International 6, ,551 Best Western Hotels & Resorts 3, ,872 Carlson Hospitality Company 1, ,576 Hyatt Hotels Corp ,053 Jinjiang Holding 1, ,078 44

45 The That Started Airbnb: * Joe Gebbia/Brian Chesky 45

46 46

47 47

Compression Nights in 7 US Markets, July YTD 2013 61 2014 75 2015 76 2016 71 Hotel Supply Change

48 Compression Nights in 7 US Markets, July YTD Hotel Supply Change ( 14-16) Airbnb +2.60mm +2.68mm +3% +127% Airbnb and Hotel Performance - Full Report at str.com 48

Questions? Presentation is available for download. To view this presentation, click STR Data Presentations from the drop-down menu on www.

Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd.

49 Questions? Presentation is available for download. To view this presentation, click STR Data Presentations from the drop-down menu on STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied. 49