Outlook for the Arctic Shipping from the Japanese ship owner s Perspective Summer 北極海運に関する邦船社からみた 2016 年夏の展望

Transcription

1 Outlook for the Arctic Shipping from the Japanese ship owner s Perspective Summer 北極海運に関する邦船社からみた 2016 年夏の展望 2 nd.june,2016, Tokyo, JAPAN Japan Norway Arctic Science and Innovation Week 2016 Hiroyuki GODA 合田浩之 Ph.D, Manager Government and Industrial Affairs Group Management Planning Headquarters Nippon Yusen Kaisha Ltd. 日本郵船 渉外グループ調査役 hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 1

2 Contents( 目次 ) 1 Northern Sea Route (Northeast Passage) in 年の北東航路 / 北極海航路 2 Northwest Passage in 年の北西航路 3 Outlook for the Future Arctic Shipping 北極海運の将来展望 hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 2

3 1 Northern Sea Route (Northeast Passage) in 年の北東航路 / 北極海航路 (1)Destination shipping is Major. Transit shipping is miner. 北極圏を目的地とする海運が太宗 欧亜の近道としての利用は僅少 (2)Yamal peninsular, Gulf of Ob is the center for the Destination. ヤマル半島 / オビ湾関連貨物が中心 (3)Non Russian Flag Vessels got permission from NSRA ロシア 北極海航路局から通航許可を得た非ロシア船 (4) Most of ship owners, which has interested in the Arctic, think Brake bulk Cargo is most promising. 北極に関心のある大方の船会社は, コンテナに入らない大きく, 重く, 長尺の貨物部門が有望とみて投資 (4) Most of ship owners, which has interested in the Arctic, think Brake bulk Cargo is most promising. 北極に関心のある大方の船会社は, コンテナに入らない大きく, 重く, 長尺の貨物部門が有望とみて投資 (5)Cargo related Japan( 日本関連貨物 ) hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 3

4 (1)Destination shipping is Major.Transit shipping is miner. 北極圏を目的地とする海運が太宗 欧亜の近道としての利用は僅少 Table1.Cargo Volume of Northern Sea Route Unit : million ton C.Y Transit Shipping Destination Shipping Total Russia Deputy Ministry of Transport Mr.Olersky (The BarentsObserver 2015/10/17) Unit : million ton C.Y Suez Cana Transit Suez Canal Authority hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 4

5 Via NSR as Transit total 4 vessels. NSR 0.3% vs. Suez Canal 99.7% hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 5

6 Arctic Liner shipping may become economically feasible around 2040, if the ice cover continues to diminish at the present rate. CBS Maritime, Jan 北極海航路を経由したコンテナ海運 ( 定期船海運 ) が経済的にひきあうのは, 2040 年あたりか hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 6

7 (3) 水深の浅い箇所 Shallow Draft: 大型船は通れない Large vessels can not sail 15m New Siberian Islands (Sannikov Strait) 12m 中東からの大型原油タンカー, アジア 欧州航路の大型コンテナ船鉄鉱石輸送の大型ばら積み貨物船は通れません 7

8 欧州航路 ( インド洋 スエズ運河経由 ) は, 世界最大船型のコンテナ船が就航する檜舞台 Largest Containerships assigned Asia-Europe Trade 40.0 コンテナ船のコンテナ 1 個当たりの運送費 (2011 年 6 月の時価 ) 35.0 米ドル / コンテナ一本 運送費 /TEU/ 日 Power ( 運送費 /TEU/ 日 ) ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 船の大きさ (1 隻あたりのコンテナの積載本数 ) Hiryoyuki_goda@jp.nykline.com 8

9 Economies of Scale 小型船では, 割高な輸送費に 0.80 ばら積み貨物船の貨物 1 トン当たりの運送費 (2015 年 7 月時価 ) 0.70 米ドル / 重量トン 運送費 /MT/ 日 Power ( 運送費 /MT/ 日 ) 船の大きさ (1 隻あたりの載貨重量トン ) Hiryoyuki_goda@jp.nykline.com 9

10 航行日数の事前の予見可能性 Predictability of Transit Time 気象 / 氷況の予測の精度 通過所要日数 (2013 年 ) Transit Time (2013 CY) 北極海航路情報室データ NSRA Information Office Vessels 20day~ days days days days days 4 ~10days 1 Total 24 ばらつき が多い 最長 Max. 22days 15hour 最短 Min. 7days 10hour 平均 Avg. 13days 23hour 神戸大学海事科学部石黒一彦准教授による Associate Prof. K.Ishiguro, Kobe Univ. 砕氷船の到着待ちで洋上で停泊ということも, しばしばあります Vessels often have to wait until Ice breaker arrive. Hiryoyuki_goda@jp.nykline.com 10

11 (2)Yamal peninsular, Gulf of Ob is the center for the Destination. ヤマル半島 / オビ湾関連貨物が中心 NSR Cargo Transportation Unit:Million Ton C.Y Transit Destination Total Mr.A.Olshevskiy of NRSA Destination Shipping at NSR 2015 Unit:Million Ton Discharge Load Total Oil and Products Gas-Condensate Coal Ore-Condensate Other Dry Cargo Total Discharge Load Total Remark Sabetta Gulf of Ob Dudinka Yenisei River Obskaya Guba Gulf of Ob Pevek East Siberian Sea Nurma-Yaha Gulf of Ob Indiga river bar Laptev Sea Total Mr.Vladimir Vasilyev of CNIMF International Seminar on Sustainable Use od the Northern Sea Route held by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, The Ocean Policy Research Institute on the 4 th.feb at Tokyo, JAPAN hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 11

12 (1)Destination shipping is Major.Transit shipping is miner. 北極圏を目的地とする海運が太宗 欧亜の近道としての利用は僅少 Table1.Cargo Volume of Northern Sea Route Unit : million ton C.Y Transit Shipping Destination Shipping Total Russia Deputy Ministry of Transport Mr.Olersky (The BarentsObserver 2015/10/17) Unit : million ton C.Y Suez Cana Transit Suez Canal Authority hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 12

13 (3)Non Russian Flag Vessels got permission from NSRA ロシア 北極海航路局から通航許可を得た非ロシア船 Table 2.Non Russian Flag Vessels, which got permissions from NSRA (As of Oct. 05th) Type of Ships No. Share Offshore Support Vessels % Vessels for Marine Engineerging % Scientic Research Vessels 1 0.9% Cruise ship 1 0.9% Sisemic Reserch vesels 7 6.3% Vessel for Transportation % (Breakdown) Product/Chemical Tanker 9 8.1% Crude Oil Tanker 1 0.9% Multi Purpose Carriers 3 2.7% General Cargo ships 9 8.1% Heavy Lifter % Bulker % Reefer boat 1 0.9% Palet Carrier 1 0.9% Total % Hiroyuki Goda (Source NSRA) Construction of Plants, Infrastructures for Yamal Project. ヤマルプロジェクトのプラント インフラ建設関連の船 Oil and Gas development 石油開発関連の船 Reefer Boat ; Whale meat for Japan 冷凍船 ( 鯨肉輸送 - 日本向け ) Cruise ship belongs to Hapag Lloyds. ドイツ船社のクルーズ客船 hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 13

14 (4) Most of ship owners, which has interested in the Arctic, think Brake bulk Cargo is most promising. 北極に関心のある大方の船会社は, コンテナに入らない大きく, 重く, 長尺の貨物部門が有望とみて投資 Table3. Order book of Ice- Class Vessels(1AS,1A) and Icebreakers Icebraker 1AS 1A total Multi-Purpose 7 7 Anchor Handling Tug/Supply Multi-Purpose/Heavy Lift Cargo 4 4 Icebreaker 3 3 Ocean-going Salvage Tug Pass./Car Ferry Chem Parcel Tanker 2 2 Transport (Heavy Lift) 2 2 Bulk Carrier 1 1 Cement Carrier 1 1 Fully Cellular Container 1 1 LNG Carrier 1 1 Multi-Functional Support 1 1 Seismic Support 1 1 Total source NYK, As of 1st. Nov hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 14

15 (2)Yamal peninsular, Gulf of Ob is the center for the Destination. ヤマル半島 / オビ湾関連貨物が中心 NSR Cargo Transportation Unit:Million Ton C.Y Transit Destination Total Mr.A.Olshevskiy of NRSA Destination Shipping at NSR 2015 Unit:Million Ton Discharge Load Total Oil and Products Gas-Condensate Coal Ore-Condensate Other Dry Cargo Total Discharge Load Total Remark Sabetta Gulf of Ob Dudinka Yenisei River Obskaya Guba Gulf of Ob Pevek East Siberian Sea Nurma-Yaha Gulf of Ob Indiga river bar Laptev Sea Total Mr.Vladimir Vasilyev of CNIMF International Seminar on Sustainable Use od the Northern Sea Route held by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, The Ocean Policy Research Institute on the 4 th.feb at Tokyo, JAPAN hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 15

16 Discharging the construction materials at Sabetta Port サベッタ港建設資材の陸揚げ風景 Barents Observer 2014/04/14 16

17 Development of Novy Port ノヴィ港 ( 石油積み出し港 ) の開発 Arctic-Info 2015/05/25 Barents Observer 2015/10/05 hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 17

18 Cargo related Japan( 日本関連貨物 ) 1project cargo for yamal( ヤマル LNG プラント関連貨物 ) Vessel Finder 2016/01/11 hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 18

19 (5)Cargo related Japan( 日本関連貨物 ) 2Whale Meat( 鯨肉 ) hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 19

20 Topic1:COSCO Yong Sheng Sweden-via-Northwest-Passage 20

21 Topic 2:Korean Flag Vessels UAE Sabetta/Yamal 21

22 Topic 3: Swedish Anker handling vessels without escort by Russian Ice breaker Maritime Denmark 2016/01/19 22

23 2 Northwest Passage in 年の北西航路 The Destination shipping is much more important than the transit shipping at the Northwest Passage too. 北西航路でも, 近道としての利用でなく, 北極圏を目的地とする海運が大切 Only cruise ships sailed through the all route of the Northwest passage in summer. 北西航路を通過する船の多くはクルーズ船 Transit - Northwest Passage:17 vessels in 隻が 2015 年は 北西航路を 通し で航海 (CNC 2016/04/03) hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 23

24 Bulker( ばら積み貨物船 ) Iron ore shipment by Nordic Bulk Carriers Ltd. from Baffin Island to Spain under 5 years of C.O.A. hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 24

25 Commercial Ice Breaker, which stood by the Shell s oil rig at Chukuchi Sea. Arctia Ltd.(Finland) press release 2015/12/04 hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 25

26 Cruise ships ( クルーズ船 ) not only northwest passage, but also. hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 26

27 Cruise Tourisum in the Nordic Countries (2014 年北欧諸国へのクルーズ観光 ) Norway( ノルウェー ) Remark Denmark( デンマーク ) Remark Port call passenger Port call passenger 寄港地 寄港隻数訪問客数 寄港地 寄港隻数 訪問客数 Nordkapp ,000 Copenhagen ,000 Tromso 112,000 Sweden( スウェーデン ) Leknes (Lofoten Islands) 60,000 Stockholm 470,000 Longyearbyen (Svalbard Islands) 37,100 Finland( フィンランド ) Bergen 32,300 Helsinki 420,000 Iceland( アイスランド ) Reykkavik 105,000 Akureyri 73,000 Arctic Cruise 北極クルーズ Faroe Island (Denmark) 35 ( フェロー諸島, デンマーク領 ) Greenland (Denmark) ( グリーンランド, デンマーク領 ) Qaqortoq in 2015 Illuissat in 2015 NORDREGIO, State of The Nordic Region NORDREGIO report 2016:1 hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 27

28 3 Outlook for the Future Arctic Shipping 北極海運の将来展望 1Destination Shipping 北極圏自体を目的地とする海運 2Transit Shipping 欧州 - アジアの近道としての北極海利用 3Japanese ship owners 邦船社の取り組み hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 28

29 1Destination Shipping 北極圏を目的地とする海運が有望

30 We expect Finnish projects フィンランドのプロジェクトへの期待 30

31 3Japanese Ship Owners 邦船社の活動 Sanko Odyssey From 31th.Aug 2011(Murmansk) to 22 nd. Sep.(China) Owner : Sanko Line, Charterer: Nordic Bulk Carriers hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 31

32 1.MOL; Yamal LNG Project ( 商船三井 ; ヤマル LNG プロジェクト ) Icebreaking LNG Tanker ( cbm) LNG World News 16th. JAN Teekay(Canada) 6 ships China LNG 50% 2Mitsui OSK(Japan) 3 ships China Shipping 50% 3Dynagas(Greece) 5 ships Sinotrans 25.5% China LNG 25.5% Dynagas 49.0% Dynagas got T/C (15 years) 4 standard ships in addition. (2019~) hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 32

33 2.K-Line( 川崎汽船 ) For Snowvit project T/C to Statoil (Norway) From 2006 hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 33

34 3.NYK Group 日本郵船 1ICO Terminals (Zeebrugge,Belgium) Hub port operation, cargo handling for Yamal Project cargo ICO terminal is 100% NYK Subsidiary company. Main business domain is RORO Vessels (PCC) operations. oundbreaking-ceremony

35 Knutsen NYK Offshore Tankers ノルウェー 日本合弁 Norway Japan J/V T/C to ENI, 10 years knut_n_nr1_2015_-_lavoppl st Two shuttle Tankers will be assigned to Barents Sea, Goliat Oil Field soon.(company Magazine Knut n 2015.No.1,p.17.) 2013/07/13 NYK Press Release Shuttle Tanker (123,000 DWT), Hilda Knutsen and Torill Knutsen hiroyuki.goda@nykgroup.com 35

36 Conclusions 結論 The driving force of shipping is cargos and passengers, i.e. real demand. 実需が海運を新興する Commerciality of the Arctic shipping has been already established in the sense of Destination shipping. 北極圏を目的地とする海運は, 既に商業性が確立されている In Foreseeable future, the Transit shipping as international logistics will remain rare cases. 36

37 Thank you for your kind attention! ご清聴ありがとうございました Asuka II at Antarctica Peninsular, on 25 th.jan.2016 南極半島における 飛鳥 Ⅱ 37