Loudoun County: Bull or Bear?

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Aileen McGee
5 years ago
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Loudoun County's been growing at a mighty pace for years. But as developers and brokers pointed out at our event there yesterday, land might be running out while development costs keep going up.

(Matching your tie to the microphone makes you a winner in any race.) His company buys and plans things in multi-year cycles. It bought Dulles Town Center in 1972 and opened the mall 27 years later.

1 If you don't see images, click here to view Story Ideas. Events To ensure delivery, please add to your address book, learn how Loudoun County: Bull or Bear? November 8, 2013 Bisnow readers! VIDA invites you to start a new fitness plan or continue on your current journey at any of VIDA's 5 downtown DC health and fitness clubs. Click here. Loudoun County's been growing at a mighty pace for years. But as developers and brokers pointed out at our event there yesterday, land might be running out while development costs keep going up. Slow and steady wins the real estate race, said Lerner Enterprises development and construction EVP Art Fuccillo at Bisnow's Loudoun County State of the Market event in Leesburg. (Matching your tie to the microphone makes you a winner in any race.) His company buys and plans things in multi-year cycles. It bought Dulles Town Center in 1972 and opened the mall 27 years later. He also says the office market has become much harder. Nothing is bought at a discount anymore and office buildings can't deliver under the low $40s because of factors like land costs and financing. He notes that new retailers are scarce. "The innovative ideas aren't there anymore."

MRP Realty managing principal Bob Murphy tells us office parks are dead. It doesn't mean existing ones will close up but some will get rezoned and more mixed-use features will be brought in.

It'll help the country continue to recover after much of the real estate focus shifted away from Dulles after 9/11.

Miller & Smith VP Bill May says Loudoun's fast-track approval process has been a game changer. His company's site plans are getting approved in under a month.

2 MRP Realty managing principal Bob Murphy tells us office parks are dead. It doesn't mean existing ones will close up but some will get rezoned and more mixed-use features will be brought in. He also says proposed Metro stations in the county will bring in a different office user but Loudoun will still be a car market because of the low density. It'll help the country continue to recover after much of the real estate focus shifted away from Dulles after 9/11. Thanks to Perkowitz+Ruth Architects eastern region director Valdis Ronis for moderating one of our panels. Miller & Smith VP Bill May says Loudoun's fast-track approval process has been a game changer. His company's site plans are getting approved in under a month. He reports over 200 residential sales for One Loudoun this year because of pent-up demand. But long-term he says there's a critical housing shortage across NoVa. Sperry van Ness senior advisor Rich Vaaler notes in the last downturn, residential led the commercial downturn and now residential is leading commercial out. (That's only fair.) His project, Village at Leesburg, has 30k SF of retail coming and he's getting calls from people who want to be in a HUBzone for new offices. He's also seeing larger companies express an interest in moving to Loudoun to avoid long commutes.

Randy Minchew was recently reelected to the Virginia House of Delegates (and here we thought the road signs with his name were promos for this event).

He also says developers will start looking for in-fill opportunities like they did in Fairfax. (Randy is a land-use attorney with Walsh, Colucci, Lubeley, Emrich & Walsh.

The number of home builders has also been rolling in the last 18 months.

3 Randy Minchew was recently reelected to the Virginia House of Delegates (and here we thought the road signs with his name were promos for this event). He says the county has seen a lot of the housing demand ramp up and he predicts developers will start fighting for lots. He also says developers will start looking for in-fill opportunities like they did in Fairfax. (Randy is a land-use attorney with Walsh, Colucci, Lubeley, Emrich & Walsh.) Cardinal Bank president Kevin Reynolds says he's seen the number of construction loans increase and every project has been above pro-forma on rents and absorption. The number of home builders has also been rolling in the last 18 months. M Flats Tops Out Yesterday, Kettler (including CEO Bob Kettler and son Forrest) topped out its M Flats apartments in Mount Vernon Triangle. The 13 -story complex delivers next spring, and we're told it'll include all the hip amenities the young'uns crave: pet-grooming stations, fitness center with an outdoor workout area (because it's embarrassing if your dog is groomed yet you're out of shape), as well as a two-story lobby intended to mimic an art gallery.

R2L Architects' design of M Flats, to include a mix of studios and one bedrooms in its 233 units,

(The way it is both young and old was inspired, we imagine, by Betty White.

4 R2L Architects' design of M Flats, to include a mix of studios and one bedrooms in its 233 units, reflects the neighborhood's stock of both historical rowhouses and modern facades. (The way it is both young and old was inspired, we imagine, by Betty White.) Schmoozin' in Georgetown Last night, over 200 filled new Georgetown hotspot El Centro DF for our Georgetown Schmoozarama. With margaritas, tacos, empanadas, flautas, and other Mexican faves, everyone was happy. We snapped Claire Shipman's Tara Mahoney, Property Group Partner DC chief Bob Braunohler (go Capitol Crossing!), and Ridgewells' Ashley Williams.

KNLB Retail's Patrick Kain, Colliers International's Nicki Berg, and ATCS Engineering's Ed

Salute to Nicki who went to both our events yesterday (Leesburg in the morning and G'Town in the

Next time we'll try to have an event at lunchtime also.

Nate Gersten recently graduated from Boston College and is now doing multifamily research at

5 KNLB Retail's Patrick Kain, Colliers International's Nicki Berg, and ATCS Engineering's Ed Geohane. Salute to Nicki who went to both our events yesterday (Leesburg in the morning and G'Town in the evening), having to get up at 4:30 AM to pull off the feat. Sorry about that, Nicki. Next time we'll try to have an event at lunchtime also. Is this heart-warming family values, or what? Nate Gersten recently graduated from Boston College and is now doing multifamily research at CoStar. Keeping in the multifamily tradition, his dad, Rick Gersten, runs Urban Igloo which we're delighted to report is expanding rapidly. They're with ipeople's Mark Shlien. And we snapped Cushman's retail guru David Dochter, Department of Labor's Lily Izadi, and Monumental Sports and Entertainment's

In case you missed it, click here to check it out, including more coverage from our Loudoun event as well as the story of one of DC's legendary brokers, Fern Baruetta. Calling All Foodies!

6 Nick Schroth. For more coverage from last night's Schmooze, check out today's Bisnow The Scene. If You Didn't Get Yesterday's BisnowÃ Â Due to some technical delays experienced by our third-party distributor, yesterday's issue went out late. In case you missed it, click here to check it out, including more coverage from our Loudoun event as well as the story of one of DC's legendary brokers, Fern Baruetta. Calling All Foodies! We are thrilled to announce our Restaurant Development Summit Nov 19 that will feature several of the top chefs and restaurateurs in Washington: Graffiato's Mike Isabella, Chef Geoff's Geoff Tracy, Good Stuff Eatery's Spike Mendelsohn, Rasika and Bombay Club's Ashok Bajaj, Matchbox's Ty Neal, Blacks Restaurants Jeff Black, Volt and Range owner Hilda Staples, plus many other top experts including DC city officials and Tom Papadopoulos, Michael Faerber, Kathy Hollinger, and Adam Williamowsky. It will be a special afternoon event at the new Forest City Yards in DC, followed by a cocktail hour and schmooze with the panelists. More info and sign up. How's your fantasy football team doing? chris.baird@bisnow.com

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