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Loren Cooper
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14 1 Part of the Waitaki district lies within the boundaries of the Otago region. The full territorial authority population is provided here. 14

15 Annual population growth rate Source: Statistics New Zealand 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Waimakariri District Selwyn District Christchurch City Canterbury Region 15

16 Gross Domestic Product Annual Average Percent Change 6% Source: Statistics New Zealand, Infometrics, CDC 4% 2% 0% Mar 07 Sep 07 Mar 08 Sep 08 Mar 09 Sep 09 Mar 10 Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Sep 12 Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Sep 15 Mar 16 Sep 16-2% -4% -6% % Change in Annual Values Christchurch % Change in Annual Values Canterbury 16

17 Employment Annual percent change Source: 15% Statistics NZ HLFS, CDC 10% 5% 0% -5% Dec 00 Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16-10% -15% Christchurch Canterbury New Zealand Unemployment Rate Percent of labour force unemployed Source: Statistics NZ HLFS Proportion Unemployed Dec 00 Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Christchurch Canterbury New Zealand 17

18 Labour Force Participation Rate Percent working age pop.n in labour force Source: Statistics NZ HLFS Dec 00 Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Christchurch Canterbury New Zealand 18

19 Average Weekly Household Income Canterbury and New Zealand Source: Statistics New Zealand 2000 $ per week New Zealand Canterbury Region Average weekly household income, 2016 Source: Statistics New Zealand $ per week

20 Permanent and long-term migration Arrivals and departures for Christchurch Source: Statistics NZ Number of people 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Arrivals Departures ā 20

21 Non-European ethnicity in Christchurch Source: Statistics New Zealand, CDC 45% 40% 35% 30% % of age group 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Age Group

22 Highest Qualification Usually resident aged over 15 years, 2013 Census Proportion 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% No Qual School Qualification Post-School Qualification Bachelor or Higher Elsewhere included 0% New Zealand Auckland Hamilton City Wellington City Christchurch City Dunedin City

23 4. 100% Employer-provided training by size of business Proportion of workforce that receives training Source: StatsNZ Business Operations Survey 2014 % of businesses 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Number of employees No staff trained Less than half More than half 2 National Business Review, August 17, 2012 ( 23

24 3 CDC, Post-Earthquake Price Dynamics in Christchurch/Canterbury, June

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27 4 Regional workforce 2031, CDC,

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29 5 Christchurch Visitor Strategy 2016 was co-ordinated by CDC, is owned by Christchurch City Council and will be implemented by the newly formed ChristchurchNZ 29

30 6 CDC Research Paper, Global Trends; Key Trends Report,

31 IPC AR5 summary, page 17; D.3 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change 9 Thomas F. Stocker (Switzerland), Qin Dahe (China), Gian-Kasper Plattner (Switzerland), Technical Summary, in IPCC AR5 WG

32 10 Lu, Jian; Vechhi, Gabriel A.; Reichler, Thomas (2007). "Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming"(pdf). Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (6): L Bibcode:2007GeoRL L. doi: /2006gl ; Parry, M.L.; et al., "Technical summary", Box TS.6. The main projected impacts for regions, in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007, pp

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34 Projected Canterbury population By age group Source: CDC, Statistics NZ Number of people Year Regional Workforce Projection, CDC,

35 Canterbury net migration - domestic and international Historic and projected Source: CDC, StatsNZ 15,000 10,000 5, , ,000-15,000 Domestic International Projected Pre-earthquake average Projected increase in employment by occupation skill level Canterbury Source: CDC Elementary Skilled Semi-skilled Skilled Highly skilled - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 35

36 12 National Business Review,, August 17,

37 The Global Talent Competitiveness Index Talent Attraction and International Mobility , edited by Bruno Lanvin & Paul Evans, INSEAD, Adecco Group, Human Capital Leadership Institute 37

38 15 Consumer City, Edward L. Glaeser et al., discussion paper 1901, June 2000, 16 Terry Clark (2003), Urban Amenities: Lakes, Opera and Juice Bars: Do They Drive Development? In The City as an Entertainment Machine (Research in Urban Policy, Volume 9) Emerald Group Publishing pp

39 17 in ,950 expats from across the world participated in the survey. 18 OECD s Better Life Index for 372 regions around the world. 39

40 Perception of Quality of Life % of respondents rating perception of life as good or extremely good Source: Big City Survey 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% Auckland Hamilton Hutt Porirua Wellington Christchurch Dunedin 7 City total 40

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43 Source: CDC Innovation City Amenity Benchmarking Source: CDC Innovation City Amenity Benchmarking 19 Von Tunzelmann, 1995; see also Innovation in New Zealand, 2013, Statistics NZ 43

44 20 Based on data collected by the Business Operation Survey (BOS), Other machinery equipment and Computer systems design are the most innovative sectors in the New Zealand economy with almost ¾ of the firms consulted reporting innovation activity. 21 Regional Innovation Strategy Report, 15/3/16, CDC and Aotearoa Unlimited 44

45 22 Regional Innovation Strategy Report, 15/3/16, CDC and Aotearoa Unlimited 45

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47 Average PCT patent applications per million inhabitants per year ( ) OECD, CDC Patent Corporation Treaty (PCT) is an international patent law treaty. It provides a unified procedure for filing patent applications to protect inventions in each of its contracting states. A patent application filed under the PCT is called an international application, or PCT application. 47

48 Patent applications by region Year ending June IPONZ, CDC Auckland Hamilton/Waikato Bay of Plenty Wellington Christchurch/Canterbury Dunedin/Otago 2008/ / / / / /

49 Average patent applications Average PCT patent applications per year ( ) and population size OECD, CDC ACT Waikato region Canterbury region Otago region Wellington region Manawatu-Wanganui region Auckland region 40 Nelson region West Coast region Taranaki region Bay of Plenty region Tasman region 20 Marlborough region Hawke's Bay region TAS Gisborne region Northland region Southland region NT Log population size SA WA QLD VIC NSW 24 Dion O Neale and Shaun Hendy, The regional structure of technical innovation 49

50 People employed in core R&D sectors (Manufacturing, ICT, Prof Services, Agriculture, Healthcare) Tier 3 Cities, As % of total industry employment Australian Census 2011, Statistics NZ 2014, CDC 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Greatrer Wellington Greater Christchurch Sunshine Coast Wollongong Newcastle Greater Hobart Canberra Sunshine Coast Gold Coast 50

51 Business Births excl. Construction Source: Statistics New Zealand, CDC hs as a proportion of geographic units 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% New Zealand Canterbury Business Deaths excl. Construction Source: Statistics New Zealand, CDC 15% 10% 5% 0% New Zealand Canterbury 51

52 Firms with 100+ employees Percent of total geographic units Source: Statistics New Zealand, CDC 0.60% 0.55% 0.50% 0.45% 0.40% % of total geographic units Canterbury New Zealand 25 Transport and Economic Transformation, Arthur Grimes, John Williamson, Richard Paling, Ramon Staheli and David Waite for Ministry of Economic Development,

53 27 Inner City Renewal, Professor Michael E. Porter, Harvard Business School,

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56 28 Better Suburbs = Better Cities, Michael K. Hollar., Journal of Regional Science,

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58 29 CDC, REINZ, MBIE; CDC, 2014, Greater Christchurch housing supply and future demand 58

59 Households in greater Christchurch, 2013 Source: Statistics NZ Percentage of all households 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% or more Bedrooms Usual residents 31 CDC, 2016, Baby Boomer Housing Bust: Myth or Reality? 32 CDC, 2016, Housing affordability knowledgebase 59

60 33 Fletcher EQR, Insurance Council of NZ, CDC, 2017, As-is where-is housing knowledgebase 36 Christchurch City Council, 2017, Housing and business development capacity 37 Globalization: A Brief Overview, IMF, 60

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62 Birthplace (broad geographic area) of usually resident population 2013 Proportion of those born from those born overseas (stated) Source: Statistics New Zealand, CDC Other Middle East and Africa Asia North America Europe (excluding United Kingdom United Kingdom and Ireland Pacific Islands Australia 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Proportion of those born overseas New Zealand Christchurch City ā ā 62

64 An Initial Assessment of the Economic Impact of the Government s Ultra-Fast Broadband Initiative on Christchurch City, January 2010, Prepared by Dr Garry McDonald, Market Economics Ltd and Amy Marshall and Anthony Thomas, Canterbury Development Corporation 39 Christchurch International Airport Limited, Annual Report Statistics NZ: International Travel and Migration: Year to December Statistics New Zealand, Total Exports by New Zealand Port 64

65 Opening up the South, 2015 Progress Update, PWC, February Statistics New Zealand, Exports for Overseas Cargo (fob NZ$), may include a degree of re-exports 65

66 Colliers International, 2016, CBD Office Market Indicators Report 66

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68 o o o o o o o o o o 45 Ministry for Primary Industries 68

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70 46 Lynn IH, Manderson AK, Page MJ, Harmsworth GR, Eyles GO, Douglas GB, Mackay AD, Newsome PJF Land Use Capability Survey Handbook- a New Zealand handbook for the classification of land 3 rd ed. Hamilton, AgResearch; Lincoln, Landcare Research; Lower Hutt, GNS Science. 163p. 70

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81 47 Irrigation New Zealand: 2015 New Zealand Irrigation Industry Snapshot 81

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96 Market Economics, Economic Futures Model

97 49 The AERU CAMEO model reallocates land to its most profitable use across seven farm types and the 10 Canterbury Water Management Strategy Zones within the constraints of anticipated regulation and local conditions. 50 Based on Infometrics GDP estimates for the 2014 calendar year. 51 Intra-regional Spending Patterns of Canterbury Farmers, Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries Saunders, C. and Saunders, J. (2012) The economic value of potential irrigation in Canterbury. AERU, Lincoln. 53 Morgan, M., V. Bidwell, J. Bright, I. McIndoe and C. Robb (2002) Canterbury Strategic Water Study. Report for the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Environment Canterbury and the Ministry for the Environment, Report No 4557/1, Lincoln Environmental, Lincoln International. 97

98 54 Statistics New Zealand 2011 Business Demography Tables 55 Benchmarking of Canterbury against similar Australasian regions using data covering the period

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100 X i,0 100 = (Xi Xmin) (Xmax Xmin) W v 1 (V b ) (Vb) W 1 v=1 v W b B B b=1 W b W v W b 56 This is only for cases where the excess of skewness is positive. When negative, a square root transformation would make it worse. Then other type of transformation must be used (e.g. antilog (x)) 57 By re-scaling the data we obtain a composite indicator (index) for each variable for all regions. Then, distances are calculated between regions and all the others 100

101 V v W v (x iv x i v) 2 W v 101

102 58 Here we differ slightly from Navarro s paper where people between years-old is considered. 102

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NEW ZEALAND REGIONAL TOURISM FORECASTS

NEW ZEALAND REGIONAL TOURISM FORECASTS 21-216 NELSON RTO AUGUST 21 www.tourismresearch.govt.nz Tourism Strategy Group Ministry of Economic Development Contents Introduction 1 1. Summary for Nelson RTO