Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs Settlement Economic Overview

Transcription

1 Strategic planning and research Economic information December 2007 Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs Settlement Economic Overview Summary Between 2001 and 2006, the population of Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs increased by 4.5%, which was greater than the increase experienced at the Highlands and Islands level (1.8%). Overall, Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs has a proportionately younger population compared with that of the Highlands and Islands as a whole. In 2006, 57.8% of the population of Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs was aged 44 or under compared with a Highlands and Islands average of 52.7%. Compared with the Highlands and Islands, Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs had a considerably lower proportion of total units employing 1-4 employees, but a greater proportion of units employing staff in the 5-10, and 25 or more employees categories. In October 2007, the unemployment rate in Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs was 1.4%. This was lower than the rates for the Highlands and Islands as a whole (1.6%). Aerial view of the Kessock Bridge and Inverness Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs - Strategic planning and research Economic information December 2007

2 Introduction This profile provides a brief overview of key economic information for the settlement of Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs. It provides information on recent trends in population, employment and unemployment in the area. For the purposes of this profile, the definition of Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs settlement has been based on the aggregation of several Scottish data zones that cover the area. Data zones are the smallest geographic area at which information from the above datasets is available. A map illustrating the area covered by this definition is provided in Figure 1 below. The geographic area selected may appear relatively broad; however, it has been designed to take account of both recent and planned developments in the surrounding area. Further, as the definition is dictated by the boundaries of data zones, in some cases larger data zones situated on the outskirts of an area have been selected in order to ensure that specific locations (e.g. housing, an industrial estate or business park) are included in the analysis. Comparative figures provided throughout the profile for the Highlands and Islands are based on data zones, with the exception of unemployment rates, where a travel-to-work area definition has been used. Figure 1: Map of Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs settlement Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs settlement profile - Strategic planning and research Economic information December 2007 Page 2 of 7

3 Population Table 1 shows the change in the population of Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs between 2001 and 2006 and compares this with the change experienced at the Highlands and Islands and Scottish levels over the same period. Table 1: Population change Area Change % Change Inverness City 57,498 60,101 2, Highlands and Islands 433, ,096 7, Scotland 5,064,200 5,116,900 52, Source: GROS Small Area Population Estimates 2001, 2006 In 2006, the population of Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs was estimated to be approximately 60,100. Between 2001 and 2006, the population of Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs increased by 4.5%, which was greater than the increases experienced at the Highlands and Islands (up 1.8%) and Scottish levels (up 1%). Although the population of Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs shows an overall increase over the period, annual population estimates suggest that the area s population actually declined initially (between 2001 and 2003), before rising significantly between 2003 and This growth is likely to have been influenced by the extent and range of new housing developments in and around Inverness as well as from an influx of migrant workers to the area. The distribution of Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs s population by age in 2006 is shown in Figure 2, along with comparative data for the Highlands and Islands and Scotland as a whole. Figure 2: Distribution of population by age 2006 Source: GROS Small Area Population Estimates 2006 Overall, Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs has a proportionately younger population compared with that of the Highlands and Islands as a whole, and as illustrated in Figure 2, its distribution is generally more similar to that at the Scottish level. In 2006, 57.8% of the population of Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs was aged 44 or under (close to the Scottish average of 57.4%) compared with a Highlands Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs settlement profile - Strategic planning and research Economic information December 2007 Page 3 of 7

4 and Islands average of 52.7%. This was specifically influenced by a high percentage of the population in the 20 to 44 age group. The population in each age band for Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs in 2001 and 2006 is shown in Table 2; it also provides information on the change in population for each age band over the period for Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs, the Highlands and Islands and Scotland. Table 2: Change in population age structure Highlands Inverness Culloden & Suburbs Age and Islands Scotland Group Change % Change % Change % Change ,314 3, ,514 10, ,788 20, ,231 15,945 1, ,661 8, , Total 57,498 60,101 2, Source: GROS Small Area Population Estimates 2001, 2006 The most significant change between 2001 and 2006 was that the number of people aged 45 to 64 in Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs rose by over 1,700 persons, an increase of 12%. The increases experienced at the Highlands and Islands and Scottish levels in this age band were a little lower, at 9.7% and 7.8% respectively. There was also a significant increase in the number of people aged 65 to 84 in Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs between 2001 and 2006 (up over 600 persons, an increase of 8.1%). In contrast, over the same period, the number of people in the 5 to 19 age group fell by almost 120. Overall, the population aged 44 and under in Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs between 2001 and 2006 increased by 0.3%. This was in contrast to trends at the Highlands and Islands and Scottish levels where the population aged 44 and under decreased by 4.1% and 2.6% respectively. The percentage increase in the population aged 45 or over was greater in Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs (up 10.9%) compared with the averages for the Highlands and Islands (up 9.1%) and Scotland (up 6.5%). Employment According to the ABI, there were approximately 39,000 employees in employment in Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs in Information on the distribution of employees in employment in Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs by broad sector in 2005, as well as comparative data for the Highlands and Islands and Scotland as a whole, is shown in Table 3. Table 3: Distribution of employees in employment by broad sector 2005 Inverness, Culloden Highlands and Sector and Suburbs Islands Scotland (%) (%) (%) Primary Manufacturing Construction Services Total Source: Annual Business Inquiry (NOMIS) Notes: The ABI provides data on employees in employment only; it therefore does not include the self-employed. Data from the ABI are based on a sample survey and may therefore be subject to inaccuracies at small area level. Columns may not sum to one hundred due to rounding. Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs settlement profile - Strategic planning and research Economic information December 2007 Page 4 of 7

5 In 2005, compared with the Highlands and Islands and Scotland as a whole, Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs had a slightly higher proportion of employees employed in the service sector (84%), but a lower proportion employed in the primary industries (1%). Looking specifically at the service sector in more detail indicates that 34% of all employees in Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs worked in the public administration, education and health sector. This mirrored the position for the Highlands and Islands as a whole and was higher than the Scottish average (30%). Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs also had the same proportion of employees employed in the distribution, hotels and restaurants sector to that of the Highlands and Islands (26%). However, it had a higher share of employees in the banking, finance and insurance sector (13%) compared with the Highlands and Islands average (10%), although it was still considerably lower than the average at the Scottish level (19%). Data units The ABI also provides information on the number of data units located in an area. Although data units do not readily correspond to the commonly used terms firms, companies or businesses by which employers are sometimes identified, they do help to provide a broad indication of the number of workplaces (excluding the self-employed) operating in an area that employ staff. The latest ABI indicates that there were approximately 2,600 units employing staff in Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs in Figure 3 shows data units broken down by business size for Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs, the Highlands and Islands and Scotland in Figure 3: Distribution of business units by company sizeband 2005 Source: ABI 2005 In 2005, 56% of all units in Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs employed between one and four employees; and a further 20% of units employed between five and ten employees. Compared with the Highlands and Islands and Scotland as a whole, Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs had a considerably lower proportion of total units employing 1-4 employees, but a greater proportion of units employing staff in the 5-10, and 25 or more employees categories. Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs settlement profile - Strategic planning and research Economic information December 2007 Page 5 of 7

6 Unemployment In October 2007, there were 497 JSA claimants in Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs. At this time, the unemployment rate in Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs was 1.4%. This was lower than the rates for the Highlands and Islands as a whole (1.6%) and Scotland (2.1%). Figure 4 illustrates trends in the unemployment rates for Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs, the Highlands and Islands and Scotland over the period October 2005 to October Figure 4: Unemployment rates October 2005-October 2007 Source: ONS JSA Claimant Count Notes: Official unemployment rates are not available for areas aggregated from data zones. Proportions for Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs are therefore estimates and are calculated using the mid-2001 resident working age population (males aged and females aged 16-59). Proportions for the Highlands and Islands are based on official unemployment rates for TTWAs and are calculated using the mid-2001 resident working age population. For Scotland, proportions for dates from 2006 onwards are calculated using the 2005 resident working age population. Figure 4 shows that between October 2005 and October 2007, the unemployment rate in Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs was entirely below that of the Highlands and Islands and Scotland. In the main, the trend in unemployment in Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs followed a similar pattern to that of the Highlands and Islands. Overall, unemployment in Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs is lower than it was two years ago, with the unemployment rate falling from 1.9% in October 2005 to 1.4% in October This is in line with trends across the Highlands and Islands and Scotland as a whole. A summary of the changes in long-term unemployment over the period October 2005 to October 2007 is presented in Table 4. Table 4: Long-term unemployment October 2005-October 2007 Highlands and Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs Scotland Islands Date No Unemployed % of Total % of Total % of Total Long Term Unemployed Unemployed Unemployed October October October Source: ONS JSA Claimant Count Notes: Data relating to the duration of the unemployed are only available rounded to the nearest five. Further, at the local level, small changes in the number of long-term unemployed can have a significant impact on percentage change trends. Figures at the small area level should therefore be treated with a degree of caution Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs settlement profile - Strategic planning and research Economic information December 2007 Page 6 of 7

7 In October 2007, there were approximately 75 claimants unemployed long term (that is, unemployed for six months or more) in Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs, accounting for 15.1% of all unemployed in the area at that time. This was considerably lower than the proportion of long-term unemployed in both the Highlands and Islands (29.4%) and Scotland as a whole (30.3%). There has been a decrease in the proportion of long-term unemployment in Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs over the period. The proportion of long-term unemployed decreased slightly at the Highlands and Islands and Scottish levels over the same period. Scherie Nicol Economist scherie.nicol@hient.co.uk Tel: (01463) Further economic information and other settlement profiles can be accessed on the HIE Website: Inverness, Culloden and Suburbs settlement profile - Strategic planning and research Economic information December 2007 Page 7 of 7