Subnational Population Estimates

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1 Image description. Hot Off The Press. End of image description. Embargoed until 10:45am 20 October 2006 Subnational Population Estimates At 30 June 2006 Highlights The population growth of both the North and South Islands was estimated to be 1.0 percent, during the June 2006 year. The fastest-growing regions were Auckland (up 1.6 percent), Nelson (up 1.4 percent) and Canterbury (up 1.3 percent), in the June 2006 year. The largest population increases among territorial authorities were in Manukau (6,500), Auckland (5,200) and Christchurch (4,400) cities, during the June 2006 year. Queenstown-Lakes, Selwyn, Rodney and Waimakiriri districts, and Tauranga and Manukau cities were the fastest-growing territorial authorities, in the June 2006 year. Over half of all New Zealanders (53.0 percent) were living in four main urban areas (Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington and Christchurch) at 30 June Brian Pink Government Statistician 20 October 2006 Cat Set 06/07 057

2 Commentary National population change New Zealand's estimated resident population was 4,140,300 at 30 June 2006, an increase of 41,400 (1.0 percent) over the June 2005 figure. The increase in population resulted from natural increase (excess of births over deaths) of 30,700 people, and net external migration (excess of arrivals over departures) of 10,700 during the June 2006 year. In comparison, the New Zealand population increased by 37,400 (0.9 percent) in the June 2005 year, due to a smaller natural increase (28,900) and a lower net external migration (8,600). North and South Island populations The estimated resident population of the North Island grew by 1.0 percent (31,900) in the June 2006 year, to reach 3,148,400. This was a lower growth rate than the average annual rate of 1.3 percent during the 2002 to 2006 June years. An estimated 991,100 people lived in the South Island at 30 June 2006, an increase of 1.0 percent (9,500) from 30 June This compared with an average annual growth rate of 1.2 percent during the 2002 to 2006 June years. At 30 June 2006, the North Island was home to 76.0 percent of New Zealand residents, up from 75.3 percent at 30 June The four northernmost regions (Northland, Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty) contain just over half (52.1 percent) of the New Zealand resident population, and the southern North Island regions comprise the remaining 23.9 percent. Regional population change Auckland Region, with an estimated resident population of 1,358,200 at 30 June 2006, was home to 32.8 percent of New Zealand residents, and 43.1 percent of North Island residents, up from 32.6 percent and 42.9 percent, respectively, at 30 June Canterbury Region, with an estimated resident population of 533,200, was home to 53.8 percent of South Island residents, up from 53.6 percent a year earlier. Twelve of the 16 regions recorded population increases during the June 2006 year. However, the growth rate for 11 of those regions was lower than the average annual growth rate during the 2002 to 2006 June years. Three of the four regions recording population decreases had a smaller decrease in the June 2006 year than their average annual decrease since 2001.

3 Six regions had growth rates at or above the 1.0 percent national average during the June 2006 year: Auckland (1.6 percent), Nelson (1.4 percent), Canterbury (1.3 percent), Tasman and Marlborough (1.2 percent each), and Bay of Plenty (1.0 percent). Of the remaining regions, Wellington and Otago (0.9 percent each), Waikato (0.8 percent), Northland (0.7 percent), Hawke's Bay (0.3 percent) and West Coast (less than 0.1 percent) had positive growth rates below the national average. The Taranaki, Manawatu-Wanganui, Gisborne and Southland regions had population decreases. During the June 2006 year, the largest numerical increases in population within regions were in Auckland (21,100), Canterbury (6,800), Wellington (4,300), Waikato (3,000), Bay of Plenty (2,600) and Otago (1,700). In the June 2006 year, 10 regions had population increases from gains in both natural increase and net migration (internal and external migration combined). Of these regions, all five situated in the North Island received more than half their growth through natural increase: Waikato (93 percent), Northland (89 percent), Wellington (86 percent), Bay of Plenty (67 percent) and Auckland (66 percent), while five regions in the South Island received most growth through net migration: Marlborough (78 percent), Nelson (77 percent), Tasman (61 percent), Otago (58 percent) and Canterbury (57 percent). The remaining six regions had net migration losses, ranging from 100 people (West Coast) to 1,600 people (Manawatu-Wanganui). Urban areas At 30 June 2006, the estimated resident population of the 16 main urban areas was 2,992,200 (72.3 percent of New Zealand's population). A further 245,300 people lived in secondary urban areas (5.9 percent of New Zealand's population). The main and secondary urban populations increased by 35,100 (1.2 percent) and 500 (0.2 percent), respectively, during the June 2006 year.

4 Four urban areas Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington and Christchurch were home to 53.0 percent (2,194,800) of New Zealand residents at 30 June 2006, up from 51.6 percent at 30 June Auckland Urban Area contained 52.6 percent (1,260,900) of the North Island main urban population at 30 June Christchurch contained 62.6 percent (372,500) of the South Island main urban population. In the June 2006 year, Tauranga (2.2 percent) was the fastest-growing main urban area, followed by Kapiti (1.8 percent), Hamilton (1.6 percent), Auckland (1.5 percent), Nelson (1.4 percent) and Christchurch (1.3 percent). Seven main urban areas recorded positive growth rates below the average of 1.2 percent, and three areas Rotorua, Wanganui and Invercargill had population decreases. Six of the 14 secondary urban areas recorded positive growth rates, ranging between 0.3 percent (Feilding) and 2.3 percent (Pukekohe), during the June 2006 year. The remaining secondary urban areas recorded population decreases, ranging from less than 0.1 percent (Greymouth) to 2.7 percent (Tokoroa). Population of territorial authorities The combined population of the 16 cities grew by 31,500 (1.3 percent) during the June 2006 year, to reach 2,513,700, while the combined population of the districts grew by 9,900 (0.6 percent) to reach 1,625,400. The proportion of New Zealand residents living in cities at 30 June 2006 was 60.7 percent, compared with 59.5 percent at 30 June In the June 2006 year, 41 of the 73 territorial authorities had population increases and 32 had population decreases. Of the 41 territorial authorities recording increases, 21 had growth rates above the 1.0 percent national average during the June 2006 year.

5 The highest rates of population growth during the June 2006 year were in Queenstown-Lakes District (5.5 percent), Selwyn District (3.3 percent), Rodney District (2.6 percent), Waimakiriri District (2.5 percent), Tauranga City (2.2 percent), Manukau District (2.0 percent), Franklin District (1.9 percent), Wellington and Hamilton cities, and Kapiti Coast District (1.8 percent each), Western Bay of Plenty District (1.7 percent), Hurunui District (1.6 percent) and Waitakere City (1.5 percent). Among territories with population decreases, the rates ranged between less than 0.1 percent (Kaipara, Whakatane, Horowhenua and Buller districts) and 3.5 percent (Ruapehu District). Seventeen territorial authorities with the largest population increases comprised 95 percent (39,500) of the New Zealand population increase during the June 2006 year. They were Manukau City (6,500), Auckland City (5,200), Christchurch City (4,400), Wellington City (3,300), North Shore City (3,100), Waitakere City (2,800), Hamilton City, Rodney District and Tauranga City (2,300 each), Queenstown-Lakes District (1,300), Franklin and Selwyn districts (1,100 each), Waimakiriri District (1,000), Kapiti Coast District (800), Western Bay of Plenty District (700), and Nelson and Palmerston North cities (600 each). Final figures The population estimates for the June 2006 year quoted above and contained in the appended tables are provisional. Processing of final statistics will be completed in November 2006.

6 2006 Census of Population and Dwellings The 2006 Census was held on Tuesday, 7 March The base estimated resident population at 30 June 2006, derived from the 2006 Census usually resident count, will be available in August Population estimates published in this release are the last estimates to be based on the 2001 Census. Final counts (census night and usually resident) from the 2006 Census will be available from 6 December For more information see the Technical notes of this release. For technical information contact: Joel Watkins or Kirsten Nissen Christchurch demography@stats.govt.nz

7 Technical notes Population measures There are three population measures commonly produced by Statistics New Zealand: census night population count, census usually resident population count and estimated resident population. The census night population count of New Zealand is a count of all people present in New Zealand on a given census night. This count includes visitors from overseas who are counted on census night, but excludes residents who are temporarily overseas on census night. The census usually resident population count of New Zealand is a count of all people who usually live in New Zealand, and are present in New Zealand, on a given census night. This count excludes visitors from overseas and residents who are temporarily overseas on census night. The estimated resident population of New Zealand is an estimate of all people who usually live in New Zealand at a given date. This estimate includes all residents present in New Zealand and counted by the census (census usually resident population count), residents who are temporarily overseas (who are not included in the census), and an adjustment for residents missed or counted more than once by the census (net census undercount). Visitors from overseas are excluded. Users of Statistics New Zealand's Hot Off The Press and media releases need to be aware that the population counts published in any release of 2001 or 2006 Census of Population and Dwellings data will differ from the estimated resident population. The reference date for subnational population estimates is 'at 30 June', which is in line with international practice. This release contains the estimated resident populations of regional councils, territorial authorities (cities and districts), and main and secondary urban areas in New Zealand. Base population The estimated resident population at 30 June in the year of the latest available census (2001) forms the base population for deriving the estimated resident population at a given date after the latest census. This base population in turn is used to derive post-censal population estimates and population projections. The base population is also used in the revision of the intercensal population estimates for the five-year period prior to the latest census. The estimated resident population of each area at 30 June 2001 is based on the census usually resident population count from the 2001 Census (held 6 March 2001), updated for: net census undercount (as measured by the 2001 Post-enumeration Survey (PES)); the number of residents temporarily overseas on census night; births, deaths and net permanent and long-term migration between 7 March 2001 and 30 June 2001; and reconciliation with demographic estimates at ages 0 9 years.

8 Following the 2001 PES, the 1996 PES results were revised. (For more details, refer to A Report on the Post-enumeration Survey 2001, available on the Statistics New Zealand website.) As a result, the base population at 30 June 1996 was revised. Boundaries Subnational population estimates at 30 June are based on 2001 regional council, territorial authority and urban area boundaries. The estimates are based on the revised base population at 30 June 1996 and the base population at 30 June Population estimates at 30 June are based on boundaries at 1 July The 2004 review of subnational area boundaries included moving most of Temple View Area Unit from Waipa District to Hamilton City. Population estimates from 2001 onwards for Hamilton City and Waipa District incorporate the 2004 boundary review. On 5 March 2006, Banks Peninsula District was amalgamated with Christchurch City and, as a result, estimates for Christchurch City from 2001 onwards have been revised to incorporate this change. Estimates for other territorial authorities, regional councils and urban areas have remained unchanged. Subnational population estimates at 30 June are available on the Statistics New Zealand website ( The population series is also available on INFOS (DPE). The population of the North Island is the sum of the population of North Island regions, and the population of the South Island is the sum of the population of South Island regions. Urban areas are defined on the basis of the 1996 Census usually resident population count. Main urban areas have a 1996 Census usually resident population count of 30,000 or more, whereas secondary urban areas have a 1996 Census usually resident population count between 10,000 and 29,999. As a result, Greymouth is still classified as a secondary urban area, even though the 2001 Census usually resident population count and the estimated resident populations at 30 June fall below the 10,000 population mark. Estimating population change Subnational resident population estimates are derived by updating the base population of each area for natural increase (excess of births over deaths), net permanent and long-term migration and internal migration. Owing to the delays between the occurrence of births and deaths and the registration of the event, it is necessary to estimate births and deaths to produce timely resident population estimates. Symptomatic data series (eg residential building consents and electoral enrolments) are used to estimate the internal migration component. Estimated natural increase and net migration for regional councils have been included in Table 4 of this release. Components of population change for territorial authorities and urban areas are available on request.

9 Rounding All figures in this release have been rounded independently. Population estimates for areas of less than 10,000 have been rounded to the nearest 10. Populations between 10,000 and 20,000 have been rounded to the nearest 50. Populations of 20,000 or more have been rounded to the nearest 100. Population changes have been rounded to the nearest 10. Results from the 2006 Census of Population and Dwellings The 2006 Census usually resident population counts for all standard geographic areas will be released progressively on the Statistics New Zealand website from 6 December 2006 onwards. The 2006 Census website ( provides information about the 2006 Census Products and Services and their release timetable. Availability of other subnational population estimates The estimates in this release are provisional. Final estimates for regional councils, territorial authorities and urban areas will be available on the Statistics New Zealand website ( by 30 November It is generally expected that there will be limited demand for 2001-based estimates at 30 June 2006 for other subnational areas (eg wards and area units), user-defined areas, and by five-year age group and sex, due to availability of the 2006 Census usually resident counts from December. However, 2001-based estimates at 30 June 2006 for other subnational areas, and by five-year age group and sex, can be requested from January 2007 by contacting the Population Statistics Unit ( demography@stats.govt.nz) base population estimates Population estimates at 30 June 2006 based on the 2006 Census results are planned to become available in August Subnational population estimates at 30 June 2006 for regional councils, territorial authorities and urban areas based on the 2006 Census results will be available in August 2007 from the web page of subnational population estimates tables ( Subnational population estimates at 30 June 2007 based on the 2006 Census will be available on the Statistics New Zealand website ( in October More information For more information, follow the link from the Technical notes of this release on the Statistics New Zealand website.

10 Copyright Information obtained from Statistics NZ may be freely used, reproduced, or quoted unless otherwise specified. In all cases Statistics NZ must be acknowledged as the source. Liability While care has been used in processing, analysing and extracting information, Statistics NZ gives no warranty that the information supplied is free from error. Statistics NZ shall not be liable for any loss suffered through the use, directly or indirectly, of any information, product or service. Timing Timed statistical releases are delivered using postal and electronic services provided by third parties. Delivery of these releases may be delayed by circumstances outside the control of Statistics NZ. Statistics NZ accepts no responsibility for any such delays. Next release Subnational Population Estimates: At 30 June 2007 will be released in October Statistics New Zealand: The first source of independent information for your key decisions.

11 Tables The following tables can be downloaded from the Statistics New Zealand website in Excel 97 format. If you do not have access to Excel 97 or higher, you may use the Excel file viewer to view, print and export the contents of the file. List of tables 1. Estimated resident population, regional council areas 2. Estimated resident population, territorial authorities 3. Estimated resident population, urban areas 4. Components of population change, regional council areas

12 Subnational Population Estimates: At 30 June 2006 Table 1 Estimated Resident Population Regional council areas At 30 June At 30 June (2) Regional council area (1) Average annual population change Population change Number Percent Number Percent Northland Region 144, , ,600 1, , Auckland Region 1,216,900 1,337,200 R 1,358,200 28, , Waikato Region 369, ,700 R 387,700 3, , Bay of Plenty Region 246, , ,900 3, , Gisborne Region 45,500 44,700 44, Hawke's Bay Region 147, , , Taranaki Region 105, , , Manawatu-Wanganui Region 227, , , Wellington Region 440, , ,700 4, , Tasman Region 42,400 46,600 47, Nelson Region 42,900 45,700 46, Marlborough Region 40,700 42,700 43, West Coast Region 31,100 30,500 30, Canterbury Region 496, , ,200 7, , Otago Region 188, , ,300 1, , Southland Region 93,300 93,000 92, North Island Regions 2,944,300 3,116,600 3,148,400 40, , South Island Regions 935, ,600 R 991,100 11, , Area outside regions (3) New Zealand 3,880,500 4,098,900 4,140,300 51, , (1) Based on 2006 regional council boundaries. (2) The estimated resident population is based on the census usually resident population count, with adjustments for residents missed or counted more than once by the census (net census undercount), and for residents temporarily overseas on census night. (3) Includes the population of Kermadec Islands, Chatham Islands Territory and people on oil rigs. Note: Individual figures may not sum to the stated totals due to rounding. Published by Statistics New Zealand

13 Subnational Population Estimates: At 30 June 2006 Table 2 Estimated Resident Population Territorial authorities At 30 June At 30 June (2) Territorial authority (1) Average annual population change Population change Number Percent Number Percent North Island Far North District 56,400 57,800 58, Whangarei District 70,000 72,800 73, Kaipara District 17,950 18,050 18, Rodney District 78,500 89,200 91,500 2, , North Shore City 194, , ,300 4, , Waitakere City 176, , ,700 3, , Auckland City 388, , ,700 8, , Manukau City 298, , ,400 8, , Papakura District 42,300 43,700 43, Franklin District 53,300 57,400 58,500 1, , Thames-Coromandel District 25,800 26,700 26, Hauraki District 17,250 16,800 R 16, Waikato District 41,300 42,600 42, Matamata-Piako District 30,300 30,300 30, Hamilton City 120, , ,700 2, , Waipa District 40,000 42,100 42, Otorohanga District 9,590 9,470 R 9, South Waikato District 24,200 22,900 22, Waitomo District 9,780 9,610 9, Taupo District 32,500 33,900 34, Western Bay of Plenty District 39,300 42,200 42, Tauranga City 93, , ,100 2, , Rotorua District 66,900 67,600 67, Whakatane District 34,000 33,900 33, Kawerau District 7,290 6,620 R 6, Opotiki District 9,540 9,510 R 9, Gisborne District 45,500 44,700 44, Wairoa District 9,260 8,410 8, Hastings District 69,600 71,300 R 71, Napier City 55,200 56,400 56, Central Hawke's Bay District 13,200 13,200 13, New Plymouth District 68,400 69,300 69, Stratford District 9,110 8,610 R 8, South Taranaki District 28,400 27,300 27, Ruapehu District 15,000 13,150 12, Wanganui District 44,400 43,300 43, Rangitikei District 15,500 14,600 14, Manawatu District 28,200 28,400 28, Palmerston North City 75,200 78,400 79, Tararua District 18,350 17,600 17, Horowhenua District 30,600 30,500 30, Kapiti Coast District 43,600 47,000 47, Porirua City 49,500 50,500 50, Upper Hutt City 37,700 37,900 38, Lower Hutt City 99, , , Wellington City 171, , ,500 3, , Masterton District 23,200 23,300 23, Carterton District 7,000 7,160 7, South Wairarapa District 8,940 8,810 8, Note: For footnotes, see end of table. Published by Statistics New Zealand

14 Subnational Population Estimates: At 30 June 2006 Table 2 continued Estimated Resident Population Territorial authorities At 30 June At 30 June (2) Territorial authority (1) Average annual population change Population change Number Percent Number Percent South Island Tasman District 42,400 46,600 47, Nelson City 42,900 45,700 46, Marlborough District 40,700 42,700 43, Kaikoura District 3,580 3,610 3, Buller District 9,860 9,570 9, Grey District 13,200 13,100 13, Westland District 7,990 7,880 7, Hurunui District 10,150 10,850 11, Waimakariri District 37,900 42,100 43,100 1, , Christchurch City 335,300 R 356,100 R 360,500 5, , Selwyn District 28,300 31,600 32, , Ashburton District 26,000 26,900 27, Timaru District 42,800 43,000 42, Mackenzie District 3,790 3,730 3, Waimate District 7,220 7,030 6, Chatham Islands Territory Waitaki District 20,500 19,850 19, Central Otago District 14,750 15,100 15, Queenstown-Lakes District 17,850 23,500 24,800 1, , Dunedin City 119, ,400 R 122, Clutha District 17,550 17,200 17, Southland District 29,400 29,300 29, Gore District 12,750 12,350 12, Invercargill City 51,100 51,300 50, Cities 2,307,800 R 2,482,200 R 2,513,700 41, , Districts 1,571,500 R 1,615,500 R 1,625,400 10, , Chatham Islands Territory New Zealand (3) 3,880,500 4,098,900 4,140,300 51, , (1) Based on 2006 territorial authority boundaries. (2) The estimated resident population is based on the census usually resident population count, with adjustments for residents missed or counted more than once by the census (net census undercount), and for residents temporarily overseas on census night. (3) Includes the population of inlets, ships, oil rigs, and Bays-Waiheke, Kermadec, Mayor, Motiti and White Islands, which are not included in a territorial authority. Note: Individual figures may not sum to the stated totals due to rounding. Published by Statistics New Zealand

15 Subnational Population Estimates: At 30 June 2006 Table 3 Estimated Resident Population Urban areas At 30 June Urban area (1) At 30 June (2) Average annual population change Population change Number Percent Number Percent Main urban area Whangarei 47,400 48,600 48, Auckland 1,129,800 1,241,800 R 1,260,900 26, , Northern Auckland Zone 230, , ,300 5, , Western Auckland Zone 181, , ,700 3, , Central Auckland Zone 380, , ,100 8, , Southern Auckland Zone 338, ,100 R 380,800 8, , Hamilton 172, ,000 R 188,000 3, , Hamilton Zone 144, ,800 R 158,500 2, , Cambridge Zone 14,250 15,200 15, Te Awamutu Zone 13,850 14,000 14, Tauranga 98, , ,500 2, , Rotorua 54,600 54,900 54, Gisborne 32,800 32,700 32, Napier-Hastings 117, , , Napier Zone 56,100 57,300 57, Hastings Zone 61,100 62,300 62, New Plymouth 49,100 49,600 49, Wanganui 40,500 39,400 39, Palmerston North 75,800 78,900 79, Kapiti 34,600 37,400 38, Wellington 354, , ,400 3, , Upper Hutt Zone 35,800 35,700 35, Lower Hutt Zone 98, ,100 99, Porirua Zone 49,400 50,400 50, Wellington Zone 170, , ,200 3, , Nelson 55,300 59,600 60,500 1, Christchurch 345, , ,500 5, , Dunedin 111, , , Invercargill 47,500 47,800 47, Main urban areas 2,766,300 2,957,100 2,992,200 45, , Note: For footnotes, see end of table. Published by Statistics New Zealand

16 Subnational Population Estimates: At 30 June 2006 Table 3 continued Estimated Resident Population Urban areas At 30 June Urban area (1) At 30 June (2) Average annual population change Population change Number Percent Number Percent Secondary urban area Pukekohe 19,450 21,500 22, Tokoroa 14,950 13,950 R 13, Taupo 20,900 22,100 22, Whakatane 18,350 18,700 18, Hawera 11,250 10,900 10, Feilding 14,000 14,000 14, Levin 19,500 19,350 19, Masterton 20,000 20,000 19, Blenheim 27,300 28,400 28, Greymouth 9,740 9,560 9, Ashburton 16,100 16,450 16, Timaru 27,300 27,200 27, Oamaru 12,950 12,650 12, Gore 10,150 9,860 R 9, Secondary urban areas 242, , , (1) Urban areas are based on 2006 urban area boundaries, but are defined on the basis of the 1996 Census usually resident population count. (2) The estimated resident population is based on the census usually resident population count, with adjustments for residents missed or counted more than once by the census (net census undercount), and for residents temporarily overseas on census night. Note: Individual figures may not sum to the stated totals due to rounding. Published by Statistics New Zealand

17 Subnational Population Estimates: At 30 June 2006 Table 4 Components of Population Change Regional council areas At 30 June Average annual change Regional council area (1) Natural increase (2) Net migration (3) Population change Natural increase (2) Net migration (3) Population change Northland Region , ,040 Auckland Region 13,900 7,150 21,050 13,070 15,160 28,270 Waikato Region 2, ,990 2, ,580 Bay of Plenty Region 1, ,580 1,660 1,530 3,190 Gisborne Region Hawke's Bay Region Taranaki Region Manawatu-Wanganui Region 1,270-1, ,060-1, Wellington Region 3, ,290 3,410 1,470 4,890 Tasman Region Nelson Region Marlborough Region West Coast Region Canterbury Region 2,950 3,840 6,790 2,440 4,840 7,300 Otago Region , ,400 1,990 Southland Region 440-1, New Zealand (4) 30,740 10,690 41,420 28,520 23,320 51,960 (1) Based on 2006 regional council boundaries. (2) Excess of births over deaths occurrences. (3) Net external migration plus net internal migration. Net external migration is the excess of permanent and long-term arrivals over permanent and long-term departures. Net internal migration is estimated using symptomatic data series. (4) Includes area outside regional council boundaries. Note: Individual figures may not sum to the stated totals due to rounding. Published by Statistics New Zealand

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