Freight Movements in the Upper North Island

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Vivian Burke
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1 Freight Movements in the Upper North Island Presentation 4 September 2009

2 Freight Key driver supporting economic growth Planning and management of freight Good information Role of NFDS Current patterns Likely future position

3 General Approach Top down or bottom up Commodity based approach Need to understand current movements Sources of information Included retail and couriers Road, rail and coastal shipping main focus

4 General Approach - Forecasting Individual commodity forecasts Range of sources of information Recognition of environmental impacts Modal splits Prediction of corridor movements

5 Key National Findings

6 National Findings Commodities identified cover about 70 per cent of overall totals 152 million tonnes and 18 billion tonne-kms

7 Modal Split by Commodity P e r c e n t o f t o t a l Mode Shares for Selected Commotities 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Liquid milk Dairy products Livestock (all by road) Logs and chips Manufactured timber products Meat Horticultural products Aggregate Coal Petroleum products Aluminium and steel Concrete (all by road) Limestone, fertiliser, cement and other minerals Road Rail Coastal Shipping

8 Summary of Regional Patterns Northland/ Auckland Total tonnes (millions) in Selected Commodities only Waikato/ Bay of Plenty Gisborne/ Hawke s Bay Taranaki/ Manawatu- Wanganui/ Wellington Tasman/ Nelson/ Marlborough/ West Coast Canterbury Otago/ Southland Northland/ Auckland Waikato/Bay of Plenty Gisborne/ Hawke s Bay Taranaki/ Manawatu- Wanganui/ Wellington Patterns of movements for selected commodities (million tonnes) Tasman/Nelson/ Marlborough/ West Coast Canterbury Otago/Southland Total High flows for internal movements High level of interaction within Golden Triangle Flows from north North Island and Canterbury to south Total

9 Forecasts for Future Overall growth to 2031 (25 years) is % Between TERNZ and MOT forecasts Growth for rail and coastal shipping picking up broad trends identified Recognises ETS but no specific intervention from Government Growth for rail of about 70 % Growth for coastal shipping of up to about 100% Both of these challenging but both less than GPS targets since imply broadly constant modal splits

10 Million tonnes Forecast Growth of Freight Movements Total Freight Lifted (million tonnes) Retail and Couriers Other Metals & Minerals Limestone Fertiliser Cement, & Concrete Petroleum Coal Aggregate Horticulture Livestock & Meat 50.0 Logs & Wood Products Milk and Dairy Products Year

11 Total Flows Terminating in Region (m tonnes) Total Flows Originiating in Region (m tonnes Origins of Traffic Forecast 40.0 Growth in Traffic by 10.0 Region 0.0 Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki Manawatu Wellington Tasman/ Marlborough West Coast Canterbury Otago Southland Destinations of Traffic Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki Manawatu Wellington Tasman/ Marlborough West Coast Canterbury Otago Southland

12 The Position for the Upper North Island

13 The UNI Position - 1 NFDS database Three types of movements Internal flows within each of the regions Flows between the regions Movements to and from other regions Modal splits

14 The UNI Position - 2 Breakdown of UNI Traffic by Type (million tonnes in ) Intra Regional Inter regional To/from other regions

15 Movements of Freight within Regions Regions (Identified in Commodities) M i l l i o n T o n n e s Northland Auckland Waikato BOP Dairy Products Meat and Livestock Petroleum Aggregate Other Minerals and Metals Logs and Timber Products Horticulture Coal Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Retailing and Couriers

Patterns of Inter-Regional Flows to/from Auckland 2006-07 (tonnes) Importance of movements to/from Waikato and

16 Patterns of Inter-Regional Flows to/from Auckland (tonnes) Importance of movements to/from Waikato and Northland Longer distance flows also important Auckland as manufacturing and national distribution hub Consumer of goods

17 Million tonnes in Movements to/from Auckland (tonnes) Freight Movements by Corridor to/from Auckland for Identified Commodities (million tonnes) Northland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Dairy Products Meat and Livestock Petroleum Aggregate Other Minerals and Metals Logs and Timber Products Horticulture Coal Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Retailing and Couriers

18 Tonne-kms (Billions) Movements to/from Auckland 2 tonne-kms Freight Movements by Corridor to/from Auckland for Identified Commodities (billion tonne-kms) Northland Auckland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Dairy Products Meat and Livestock Petroleum Aggregate Other Minerals and Metals Logs and Timber Products Horticulture Coal Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Retailing and Couriers

19 % by Rail or Coastal Ship Current Modal Splits by Corridor Auckland 1 Modal Splits in Key Corridors to and from Auckland (Rail and Coastal Shipping as per cent of total tonnages) 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Northland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Total Total Interregional Rail Coastal Ship

20 Patterns of flows to / from Waikato Strong links with Auckland and BOP (the Golden Triangle) Limited linkages further south

21 Million tonnes in Movements to and from Waikato 9.00 Traffic to/from Waikato for Key Commodities Corridors and Commodities Auckland/Northland BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Dairy Products Meat and Livestock Petroleum Aggregate Other Minerals and Metals Logs and Timber Products Horticulture Coal Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Retailing and Couriers

22 Future Growth to 2031

23 The UNI Position Change to Breakdown of UNI Traffic by Type (million tonnes in ) 12.6 Breakdown of UNI Traffic by Type (million tonnes in Intra Regional Inter regional To/from other regions Growth Intra Regional Inter regional Intra-Reg 60% Inter-Reg To/from other 106% regions To/From Outside 41%

24 Future Growth in Auckland 1 Forecasts of future growth to 2031 Based on Business as usual assumptions Total Growth in Freight Flows by Corridor (billion tonne-kms) Corridor Total Growth Northland % Auckland % Waikato % BOP/Gisborne % Hawkes Bay % Taranaki % South % Total % Total Interregional %

25 Billion tonne-kms Future Growth in Auckland 2 Forecast Growth of Internal and Inter-Regional Freight Traffic by Corridor (tonne-kms) Northland Auckland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Total Total Interregional

26 Million tonnes in 2031 Future Flows by Commodity Traffic to/from Auckland for Key Commodities 2031 Corridors and Commodities (tonne-kms) Northland Auckland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Total Total Interregional Dairy Products Meat and Livestock Petroleum Aggregate Other Minerals and Metals Logs and Timber Products Horticulture Coal Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Retailing and Couriers

27 Per Cent of Corridor Flows Modal Split Changes for Auckland tonne-kms Change in Modal Splits by Corridor to % 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Northland Auckland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Total Total Interregional Rail Rail 2031 Coastal Shipping Coastal Shipping 2031

28 Key National Findings Movements in tonnage terms dominated by small number of commodities Milk and dairy, logs and wood products and aggregates 60 % of total for selected commodities Typically low value products seeking to minimise the distances travelled Smaller share of tonne-kms 44% of total- but still substantial Longer distance flows for retail and courier, petroleum, coal and horticulture

29 Findings for Upper North Island Flows Has high share of national traffic Substantial growth of internal flows Very substantial growth inter-regional flows with strong Auckland focus Limited changes in modal shares without interventions substantial growth in traffic Increasing demands on transport networks Planning for freight is important

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