The investment pipeline in Australia s Northern Territory. June 2013

Transcription

1 The investment pipeline in Australia s Northern Territory June 2013

2 Location is now a major advantage for the NT 4 hours flying time from Darwin: South: 23 million people 6 mainland capitals 20 trading ports 23 international airports North: 485 million people 8 capital cities 36 trading ports 69 international airports

3 Australia in the Asian century Darwin s evolution. Darwin has great opportunities to become a world-leading centre for engineering, financial, medical and education services. It is on the cusp of evolving in the same way as Singapore, which has used its location to become a modern thriving city with high quality housing, services and quality of life. Natural resources developments are leading the transformation of Darwin, which is experiencing an investment boom that is driving and diversifying its economic expansion and creating thousands of new jobs.. Darwin is poised to reap substantial benefits.. Decisions made today will shape the direction of the city for decades to come. Australia in the Asian Century White Paper October Page 184.

4 The industries driving the NT economy today NT: Sector contributions to GSP % 5% 10% 15% 20% Mining Construction Public administration and safety Ownership of Dwellings Manufacturing Health care and social assistance Transport, postal and warehousing Financial and insurance services Education and training Agriculture, forestry and fishing Retail trade Professional, scientific and technical services Rental, hiring and real estate services (b) Other Services Accommodation and food services Administrative and support services Information media and telecommunications Wholesale trade Electricity, gas, water and waste services Arts and recreation services Activities traditionally associated with all levels of Government account for around 22% of today s NT economy Source: ABS Cat. No June 2011 data

5 A steady pipeline of major projects & investments ffshore Oil & Gas nshore Oil & Gas Onshore Mining Infrastructure & ports Defence & Domestic New Prison NTG/ Sitzler $600m Single LEAP Defence $230m INPEX/ Ichthys offshore $17B INPEX/ Ichthys onshore First 2 trains $17B Groote Eylandt port expansion GEMCO $279m Airport expansion $60m Prelude FLNG SHELL $12.6B Montara FLNG PTTEPAA $440m Ranger Uranium Exploration ERA $120m Larrakeya h Base Defence $50m NPARIH Territory Fibre network Construction NBN SA/NT $341m McArthur River Xstrata Zinc $350m Marine Supply Base NTG $110m Housing $672M Southern Georgina Basin Shale exploration Petrofrontier $210m Molyhil Thor Mining $66m Abattoir AAco $80m Roper Bar Iron Ore Western Desert Resources $160m Darwin Port upgrade DPC $41M Waterfront Redevelopment stage 2 - Toga $63m Mt Todd Vista Gold $800m Casuarina Square expansion MYER $220m Palmerston Hospital NTG $110m Gas to Gove eni $500m Gas to Gove Pipeline $500m Bonaparte FLNG GDF/ Suez/ Santos Gas to Gove Gas conversion $200m Darwin Port upgrade DPC $85M US Marines McArthur Basin Shale Gas Armour Energy $50M Chandler Salt Mine $200m construction Nolans Rare Earths Arafura $345m Redbank Oxides Copper Ord River Irrigation Area Stage 2 WA/NT Heron Gas Field LNG MEO Hodgson Downs Sherwin Iron $180m Callie Deeps Newmont Gold Australia Bigrlyi Energy Metals $181m Blackwood Gas Field LNG MEO Cash Maple FLNG PTTEPAA Ranger Uranium Expansio n ERA Crux FLNG Nexus Energy/ Shell Wonarah Phosphate Minemaker s Limited $200m DEFENCE force posture review Darwin LNG 2nd train ConocoPhillips $5B Southern Georgina Shale Gas Petrofrontier Mt Peake Vanadium TNG $700M Sunrise Field/ Timor WOODSIDE Potentially FLNG $12B Beetaloo Basin Shale Gas Hess/ Falcon Freight from Roxby Downs, Olympic Dam $936m over 24 years Confirmed project Under evaluation Prospective

6 Major investments impact on small economy $B Railway & Bayu-Undan Phase 1 Value of construction work done in the Northern Territory Start of LNG plant Start of Alcan G3 End of LNG plant End of Alcan G3 (major works) Blacktip Montara GEMCO Kitan oilfield LNG plant maint. shut down Total Engineering 0.2 Residential Non-residential Year ended June Moving annual total adjusted for inflation.

7 GSP - Gross State Product in A$ billions 6.5% growth will double the economy by 2030 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 Expanded Darwin Airport Terminal Facilities Expanded Army Presence in the North Expansion of East Arm Port Alice to Darwin Railway & Bayu Undan Stage 1 Darwin Business Park Darwin LNG Construction and Alcan G3 Darwin Waterfront Historical growth Average of 3.9% per annum Blacktip, MRM Expansion, GEMCO expansion, Montara Oil Field New Prison, Marine Supply Base, Ichthys construction commences 2.8% Extrapolated baseline 2.8% per annum +10% potential Floating LNG, + Mining, + onshore Energy +5% additional LNG trains in Darwin +10% to 18% Ichthys project - 2 trains $100 per barrel $ NT Treasury forecasts Source: ABS, ACIL Tasman, NT Treasury, NT Department of Business

8 The five year outlook to Average annual growth over five years to Australia NT NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas ACT GDP/GSP growth % Private consumption % Population growth % Employment growth % Unemployment rate % CPI % Source: Deloitte Access Economics December Quarter 2012

9 The raw investment potential varies across the NT Greater Darwin 131,678 population 56% 78,047 labour force - 62% 9,205 businesses 66% 3,164 km 2 in area 0% East Arnhem 16,178 population 7% 7,226 labour force - 6% 214 businesses - 2% 33,596 km 2 in area 2% Daly, Tiwis & West Arnhem 18,382 population - 8% 6,221 labour force 5% 1,463 businesses 11% 112,251km 2 in area 8% Katherine 20,694 population 8% 9,181 labour force - 7% 804 businesses 6% 326,327km 2 in area 24% Alice Springs region 41,222 population -18% 22, 344 labour force - 18% 1,929 businesses - 14% 569,566 km 2 in area 41% Barkly 6,682 population - 3% 2,588 labour force - 2% 192 businesses -1% 303,295 km 2 in area 22% Total NT 234,836 population 125,607 labour force 13,807 businesses 1,348,199 km 2 in area Population ABS data from 2012 Labour force ABS data from 2008 Businesses ABS data from 2009 Area

10 Darwin a northern oil and gas hub Deep water harbour Marine Supply Base Common User Area East Arm Logistics Precinct International port Trans continental railway National highway International airport Petroleum supply and service centre CDU North Australian Centre for Oil & Gas

11 A supply and service centre for Floating LNG? 1. Prelude (construction underway) 2. Sunrise 3. Abadi 4. Petrel/Tern/Frigate 5. Oliver/Cash/Maple/ Montara 6. Caldita/Barossa 7. Evans Shoal 8. Heron/Blackwood 9. Chuditch 10. Poseidon 11. Crux/Libra 12. Argus

12 Industrial infrastructure already in place Winnellie East Arm Logistics Precinct Berrimah Pineland s East Arm Port Darwin s Marine Supply Base

13 East Arm Logistics Precinct Site of Darwin s Marine Supply Base

14 Darwin s Marine Supply Base Dedicated facility for servicing rig tenders Adjacent waterfront land for critical supplies and storage Land available for industries requiring close proximity to berths >200 Ha of adjacent industrial land available for related oil and gas industries such as a new Prelude services and maintenance base Synergies with other operators Cost advantages Schedule advantages

15 North Australian Centre for Oil and Gas Charles Darwin University is a dual sector university Tertiary and VET $3 million seed funding from INPEX and Total Partners ConocoPhillips, ENI, Total, Dow Chemicals and others Linkages with Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen, Curtin University, and Challenger TAFE Supported by Australian Institute of Marine Sciences Growing petroleum research and education capabilities Supported by new electro-technology lab and VET trade facilities

16 Darwin population projections Potential for another to people over 15 years in Greater Darwin A 30-50% increase over 15 years. - Baseline High growth

17 Property requirements by 2025 Location Number of additional dwellings Additional retail and bulky goods floor area (m 2 ) Additional commercial floor space (m 2 ) Additional industrial land (ha) Darwin CBD Up to Darwin inner suburbs Up to Darwin northern suburbs Up to Darwin-Palmerston corridor Up to Palmerston Up to Weddell Up to Litchfield Up to Cox Peninsula Up to Other TOTAL Up to

18 Darwin households and how they are changing As a proportion there are increasingly: more couples without children less couples with children more lone person households

19 Darwin CBD residential projects in 2012

20 Opportunities to develop tourism assets Additional hotel rooms in Darwin Internationally-recognised 5 star brand in Darwin Upgraded accommodation in regional areas New 3 star accommodation Signature/ wilderness lodges

21 Potential sites for new hotels in Darwin

22 Existing and pending mines 13 existing mines Alcan Gove * Bootu Creek * Callie Croc Gold several sites Frances Creek * Gemco * Mataranka McArthur River * Ranger Tiwi Mineral Sands * Committed to expanding 29 being evaluated Next 12 months Mt Todd (Au) Roper HM (Ti, V & Fe) Tanami Central (Au) Bigrlyi (U) Nolan s Bore (REE s) Next 2-3 years Roper River (Fe) Roper Bar (Fe) Rover (Au & Cu) Mt Peake (V, Ti & Fe) Molyhil (W & Mo) Spinifex Bore (garnet)

23 Onshore petroleum exploration activity % covered by granted exploration licences 10% covered by new applications 40% covered by granted exploration licences 47% covered by new applications

24 Defence bases and activity annual spend in the Territory: A$1.7 billion (9.2% of NT state final demand) 11% average annual increase in ADF spend in the NT for the last decade Almost 10% of Australia s Defence personnel are based in the Territory Defence community makes up 6.1% of Territory s population US Defence presence: pre-positioning & Marines

25 The Northern Food Bowl myth or mission? The potential for the NT to be the northern foodbowl is defined by a combination of constraints such as; genetics temperature water availability & quality soils landforms, and growing conditions Recent NT Government research suggests that of the 1.35 million square kms ; 55% is suited to native pasture A small but increasing potential for improved pastures A small area for irrigated field crops relying on artesian water Some potential for annual crops, constrained by soil types Some potential for for perennial crops We are not yet exploiting all of the available area, and it may be possible to bring potential areas into production, and improve the productivity of existing and future areas by smart investment & technology Ability to supply markets depends upon shelf life & distance

26 Contact Tony Mott Director, Investment Services investnt (08)