Western Australia GSP

Transcription

1 July 05 s gross state product (GSP) was $65 billion in 03-4, contributing 7% of Australia s gross domestic product (GDP). GSP per capita was $03,770, 53% higher than the national average of $67,93. s population in the December quarter 04 was.58 million (% of the national population). The 05 Tomorrow report forecasts that the State s population will rise to 3.7 million by 06. Economic growth 8% s real GSP rose 5.5% in 7.6% 6.% 6% 5.5% 4.7% 4.% 4% 4.3% 4.6% 3.5% 4.%.8% 3.3%..8% % GSP Australia GDP Note Forecasts start in Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 50.0 State Accounts and National Accounts; 05-6 State Budget; and Australian Government 05-6 Budget. 03-4, following 4.6% growth in 0-3, and was above annual average growth of 4.9% over the past 0 years. GSP is forecast to rise 3.5% in 04-5,. in 05-6 and 3.5% in Australia s GDP rose.5% to $,584 billion in 03-4 and is forecast to rise by.5% in 04-5 and.75% in Weighted annual average GDP growth of s major export markets was 5.6% in 03, and is expected to decline to 4.9% in 04 and 4.8% in 05. Major expenditure on GSP (% change) s merchandise exports rose 8% Business investment in volume terms in This was the largest contributor to GSP growth ahead of household consumption (up %) and dwelling investment (up %). Business investment fell % in volume terms in Merchandise exports are expected to rise by an annual average of 6% in the five years to 08-9, offsetting falling business investment over the period. Merchandise exports Household consumption Note Forecasts start in Source: ABS 50.0 State Accounts, National Accounts and Balance of Payments; and 05-6 State Budget. Industry sectors real value added (% change) 3 Mining made the largest industry contribution to GSP growth in 03-4, with real value added rising %. Other industry sectors contributing to GSP growth included agriculture, forestry and fishing (up 59%), non-market service industries (up 5%), construction (up 4%), market services industries (up %) and utilities (up %). The manufacturing industry detracted from GSP growth in 03-4 (down 3%) Mining Construction Services industries Public administration and safety; health care and social assistance; and education and training. Electricity, gas, water and waste services. Source: ABS 50.0 State Accounts. July 05 Page of 0

2 July 05 Industry sectors nominal value added The mining industry accounted for 3 of GSP in Mining $79b Market services industries $74b Construction $33b Non-market services industries(a) $7b 0-3 Manufacturing $3b Agriculture, forestry & fishing 03-4 $7b Utilities(b) Market services industries comprised 8% and construction % of GSP. Mining industry nominal value added rose 8% to $79 billion in Nominal value added in market services industries rose by 5% to $74 billion and construction by % to $33 billion in Nominal value added in agriculture, forestry and fishing rose by 64% to $7 billion in $6b $50b $00b (a) Public administration and safety; health care and social assistance; and education and training. (b) Electricity, gas, water and waste services. Source: ABS 50.0 State Accounts. Population growth 00,000 4% 75,000 s population rose.6% in ^ 3% 50,000 % 5,000 % 0-5, Net overseas migration Natural increase Net interstate migration Population growth rate (%) 04, following.5% growth in 03. This was lower than the annual average growth of.6% in the past 0 years. The population was,58,50 in 04, 40,7 more than a year earlier. Net overseas migration contributed 47% (8,90) of the growth in 04. Population growth is forecast to slow from.6% in 03-4 to.9% in 04-5 and then rise to.% in 07-8 and 08-9, according to the 05-6 State Budget. ^ Population and the components of population growth are calculated on a year-ended basis. Source: ABS 30.0 Australian Demographic Statistics. Labour market Employment in grew 0.3% 8% 6% 4% % -% Jun-06 Jun-09 Jun- Jun-5 Employment growth (through the year) - (4,00) to.38 million in June 05. Employment grew.3% (30,900) through the year to June 05, higher than Australia s growth of.9% (4,500). The State s unemployment rate was 5.8% in May 05; higher than the 5.% in the previous month. Australia s unemployment rate was 6. in June 05. The State s annual average employment is forecast to grow by.75% in 05-6, with an average unemployment rate of 6.5%, according to the 05-6 State Budget. Unemployment rate - Unemployment rate - Australia Source: ABS 60.0 Monthly Labour Force. July 05 Page of 0

3 July 05 Industry sector employment (annual average) Services industries Market services industries accounted for 48% of 66,875 Non-market industries(a) 337,050 Construction 48,75 Mining ,00 Manufacturing ,85 Agriculture, forestry & fishing 3,700 Utilities(b) 5, , , , ,000 (a) Public administration and safety; health care and social assistance; and education and training. (b) Electricity, gas, water and waste services. Other mining includes non-metallic minerals mining, coal mining and mining not further defined. Source: ABS Quarterly Labour Force. s employment in (a) Non-market services industries contributed 4.5%, construction 0.8% and mining 6.9%. In 04-5, employment rose in market services industries (up 35,50 or 5.6%), non-market services industries (up,650 or 6.9%), construction (up 7,5 or 5.%) and agriculture, forestry and fishing (up 3,600 or.8%), but fell in all other industries. Mining employment fell % (,900) in 04-5, due to falls in metal ore mining (down 5,450 or 6%), exploration and other services employment (down,75 or 4.5%) and oil and gas extraction (down 375 or 3.4%), offsetting a rise in other mining (up,55 or %). Business investment contributed 6% of s GSP in The State accounted for 6% of Australia s business investment in 04 and 5 of the value of Australia s resource projects under construction or committed in April 05. In March 05 there was $79.3 billion of resource projects under construction or committed in and a further $8.4 billion under consideration. Annual business investment $80b 4 $60b 3 $40b $0b Business investment in fell Business investment 0 04 Mining new capital expenditure Share of Aust business investment (%) 9.4% in real terms in 04, compared to annual average growth of.5% over the past 0 years. The value of business investment fell 8% to $63.8 billion in 04. The value of private new capital expenditure of selected industries in fell 0.4% to $55.8 billion in 04, 36% of the Australian total. The value of mining new capital expenditure fell.% to $46. billion in 04; 55% of the Australian mining total. Excludes new capital expenditure in the industries of agriculture, forestry and fishing; public administration and safety; education and training; health care and social assistance; and superannuation funds. Source: ABS National Accounts, 50.0 State Accounts and Private New Capital Expenditure. Quarterly business investment $5b Business investment in fell $0b Engineering construction work done fell 7.3% to 6.7% to $4. billion in the March quarter 05. $5b $8. billion in the March quarter 05. Mining new capital expenditure fell 4% to $0.5 billion in the March quarter 05 (not adjusted for seasonal factors). $5b Mar-006 Mar-009 Business investment (a) Mining new capital expenditure (b) Mar-0 Mar-05 Engineering construction (a) (a) Seasonally adjusted time series. (b) Original time series (not adjusted for seasonal factors). Source: ABS National Accounts, Engineering Construction and Private New Capital Expenditure. July 05 Page 3 of 0

4 July 05 Investment in major resource projects by commodity (A) Under consideration Mar Construction/committed Mar LNG Natural gas Crude oil and condensate Gold Nickel Alumina Other commodities and infrastructure Yet to reach a final investment decision. Note as some investment is originally reported in US$, the A$ value of investment varies with movements in the exchange rate. Source: Department of Mines and Petroleum, Resources Data Files. Major iron ore and LNG operations and projects A mtpa [target] Start up and associated infrastructure Exports in 04: Rio Tinto BHP Billiton Fortescue Metals Group Others exports Recently completed major projects (ramping up to full capacity): CITIC Pacific Sino Iron Cape Preston Mine & Processing Plant Fortescue Metals Group/Baosteel/Formosa Iron Bridge Rio Tinto Pilbara 360 Iron Ore Expansion (Port and Rail) recently completed major projects Major projects under construction or committed: Hancock Prospecting Iron Ore Mine & Infrastructure Roy Hill (exports plus committed capacity expansions plus recent projects ramping up) 7 [360] 8 [90] 44 [65] 54 [60] 697 [975] [07] [07] [05] (8) [0] Sep.03 Mar. 05^ Jun Sep [7.] 4.3 [.9] 0.6 [30.0] Aug.989 Apr Oct * [6] 8.9 [5] (.7) Dec. 05 Jun. 06 Dec. 06 Dec. 06 Jun. 06 Jun. 07 Mar. 08 LNG and associated gas supply infrastructure Operating projects: North West Shelf Woodside Pluto operating capacity Recently completed major projects: Woodside North Rankin Redevelopment Major projects under construction or committed: Chevron Gorgon Joint Venture Gas Processing Plant Woodside Greater Western Flank (Phase ) Chevron Wheatstone LNG Plant Inpex/ Ichthys Gas Field Woodside/KUFPEC Julimar Development (Gas for Wheatstone) Shell Prelude Floating LNG Plant Woodside Persephone gas field (Gas for North West Shelf) projects under construction or committed capacity (operating projects plus committed expansions) 48.7 mtpa = million tonnes per annum. Estimated dry tonnes for actual sales and wet tonnes for sales targets. Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals Group inclusive of third party tonnes. Infrastructure expansions complete, with focus now on ramping up to full capacity, debottlenecking and productivity. * Department of State Development estimate. ^ Stage (.5 mtpa) was completed in March 05. Stage (9.5 mtpa) development is subject to the successful operation of Stage. Source: Deloitte Access Economics, Investment Monitor; Department of Industry, Mining Industry Major Projects; WA Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Resource and Energy Projects; company announcements/reports/presentations. July 05 Page 4 of 0

5 July 05 The value of minerals and petroleum sales in fell 0.9% to $4. billion in 04. The Reserve Bank of Australia s non-rural commodity price index fell.6% in 04-5 (down 7.5% in 04). The Australian dollar exchange rate fell 9.4% to US8.9 cents in 04-5 (down 6.4% in 04) and is forecast in the 05-6 State Budget to average US75.9 cents in and LNG prices (monthly average) The monthly average price of iron ore rose 5% to $US00 $US0 $US50 $US5 $US00 $US0 $US50 $US5 $US0 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun- $US0 Jun-5 Jun-3 /t (, fines, 6% Fe, Spot, CFR) Crude oil/barrel (West Texas Intermediate) LNG/mmbtu (Japan, CIF) - right axis 05-6 State Budget. Source: World Bank, Commodity Price Data (monthly prices in nominal US dollars). US$63 a tonne in June 05. The annual average price fell 4% to US$7/t in 04-5 (down 8% to US$97/t in 04) and is forecast to fall to US$47.5/t in The monthly average price of LNG fell 5% to US$9.5 a million British thermal unit in June 05. The annual average price fell 4% to US$3.8/mmbtu in 04-5 (down % to US$6.0/mmbtu in 04). The monthly average price of crude oil rose % to US$59.8 a barrel in June 05. The annual average price fell 3% to US$69/bbl in 04-5 (down 5% to US$93/bbl in 04). The monthly average price of gold fell % to US$,8.5 an ounce in June 05. The annual average price fell 6% to US$,3/oz in 04-5 (down to US$,66/oz in 04). World resource commodity production: 04 Unit Million tonnes 000 tonnes 000 tonnes Million tonnes 000 tonnes 000 tonnes 000 carats 000 tonnes Million tonnes Tonnes Garnet Zircon Alumina Nickel Ilmenite Diamonds Rutile LNG Gold WA % of World WA % of Australia 37% 7% % 3% 8% 5% 4% 5% 9% 6% 95% 0 68% 0 3% 9% 8% 85% , Australia ,00 0, World,900,660,540 08,400 6,680 65, ,5 Source: Department of Mines and Petroleum, Resources Data Files; GIIGNL, The LNG Industry in 04. Major minerals and petroleum sales (value) s iron ore sales fell 6.% to $69.4b $65.b $3.3b $5.6b LNG $9.b $9.6b Crude oil(a) 03 $8.7b $8.7b Gold 04 $4.b $4.6b Alumina $3.6b $3.6b Nickel $0b $40b $60b (a) Includes condensate. Source: Department of Mines and Petroleum, Minerals and Petroleum Summary Tables. July 05 Page 5 of 0 $65. billion in 04 (57% of minerals and petroleum sales), with sales volumes up 5% to 697 million tonnes. LNG sales rose 8% to $5.6 billion in 04 (4% of minerals and petroleum sales), with volumes up to. million tonnes. (a) Crude oil sales rose 4.% to $9.6 billion in 04 (8% of minerals and petroleum sales), with volumes up 5.5% to 7.9 gigalitres. Gold sales fell 0.3% to $8.7 billion in 04 (8% of minerals and petroleum sales), despite volumes rising 3.% to 93. tonnes.

6 July 05 and LNG sales outlook (volume) 800Mt 80Mt s iron ore sales are forecast to 600Mt 60Mt 400Mt 40Mt 00Mt 0Mt 0Mt 0Mt (left axis) LNG (right axis) rise by an annual average of 4.8% to 799 million tonnes between 03-4 and LNG sales are expected to grow from million tonnes in 03-4 to almost 50 million tonnes by 07-8, assuming the Gorgon, Wheatstone and Prelude projects are operating at full capacity at this time and the North West Shelf maintains current production levels. accounted for 4 of proposed iron ore expansions by the top 0 iron ore exporting countries in 0 and % of global LNG capacity under construction in Q 05. Note Projections and/or forecasts start in Source: Department of Mines and Petroleum, Minerals and Petroleum Summary Tables; 05-6 State Budget; and Department of State Development. World iron ore and natural gas reserves : Pilbara Mid West Central Yilgarn Other regions Million tonnes Dec. 04 6,854 6,580, ,674 World: Australia (st) Brazil (nd) Russia (3rd) (4th) India (5th) USA (6th) World Feb ,000 3,000 5,000 3,000 8,00 6,900 87,300 Natural gas World % share 0.7% 8.3% 4.8% 3.6% 4.8% 4.% : Carnarvon Basin Browse Basin Bonaparte Basin Perth Basin Trillion cubic feet Nov World: Iran (st) Russia (nd) Qatar (3rd) Turkmenistan (4th) USA (5th) Australia (th) World Dec. 03,93, ,558 World % share 8.% 6.8% 3.3% 9.4% 5.. Economic demonstrated resource or proved and probable reserves. Includes magnetite. Source: Department of State Development; United States Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries; Energy Quest, Energy Quarterly Reports; and BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Principal agricultural commodities The gross value of agriculture production in $,3m Wheat $,993m $597m Barley $988m $773m $898m Canola Wool $5m $58m Cattle & calves $463m $579m Sheep & lambs $334m $40m $m $,000m $,000m rose % to $.0 billion in The gross value of principal agricultural commodities produced rose 3% to $7. billion in The value of wheat production rose 4% to $3.0 billion in 03-4, with volumes up 36% to 9. million tonnes. The value of the State s agri-food exports rose to $7.6 billion in $3,000m Includes wheat, barley, oats, grain sorghum, canola, cotton, apples, grapes, hay, lupins, nursery production, potatoes, tomatoes, cattle and calves, sheep and lambs, pigs, poultry, wool, milk and eggs. Includes agriculture, forestry and fishing industry products, natural and cultured pearls, and food and beverage manufacturing. Source: ABS 50.0 State Accounts, International Trade in Goods and Services, Value of Principal Agricultural Commodities Produced, 7.0 Principal Agricultural Commodities. July 05 Page 6 of 0

7 July 05 In 03-4 exports of goods and services accounted for 5% of GSP. In 04 minerals and petroleum contributed 9% ($3.6 billion) of the State s merchandise exports. contributed 47% of Australia s merchandise exports in 04, accounting for large shares of national exports to (7%), Japan (5%) and Korea (49%). was the largest market for the State s exports of iron ore (76%) and gold (64%) in 04. Merchandise trade s merchandise exports were $50b steady at $4.6 billion in 04. Merchandise exports were mainly iron ore (5%), $00b $50b Gold LNG Crude oil(a) Other Imports LNG (%), gold () and crude oil and condensate (8%) in 04. Merchandise export volumes rose 3% in 04, above annual average growth of 5.6% in the past 0 years. Merchandise imports rose 7% to $36 billion in 04. Merchandise imports were mainly refined petroleum oil (3%), crude oil and condensate (.5%), non-monetary gold (9%) and motor vehicles (5%). (a) Includes condensate. Source: ABS International Trade in Goods and Services, National Accounts and 50.0 State Accounts. Major trading partners: 04 was s largest export $63.5b Japan $4.b South Korea $9.8b Singapore $5.4b $4.b $.3b $.3b $4.5b Malaysia $.4b $.b $0b Exports $40b $60b market in 04 ($63.5 billion or 5%), followed by Japan ($4 billion or 9%). overtook Japan as the State s largest export market in 006. The State s exports to fell by 4% ($3. billion) while exports to Japan rose by 6% ($.3 billion) in 04. Singapore was the State s largest source of imports in 04 ($4.5 billion or.5%), followed by ($4. billion or.7%). $80b Imports Source: ABS International Trade in Goods and Services. Major export commodity markets: 04 Mt Gold t LNG (03-4) Mt Japan Korea Taiwan Singapore UK India Japan Korea Taiwan and others Nickel 000t Alumina Mt Crude oil (03-4) Gl 3 Malaysia Japan Singapore UAE South Africa Bahrain Korea Singapore Japan Sales DSD estimates 3 Includes condensate Source: ABS International Trade in Goods and Services; Department of Mines and Petroleum, Resources Data Files; International Group of LNG Importers, The LNG Industry; Japanese Ministry of Finance, Japan LNG Imports; Korean Customs Service, Korea LNG Imports; and CEIC Premium Database. July 05 Page 7 of 0

8 July 05 Major iron ore export markets (volume) accounted for 5% of global 500Mt 400Mt 300Mt 00Mt 00Mt 0M t Japan iron ore exports in 04, up from 47% in 03 and 4% in 0. The State s iron ore exports to rose 3 to 55 million tonnes in 04, higher than the % annual average growth in the past 0 years. exports to Japan fell 3% to 76 million tonnes in 04. exports to Korea rose 5% to 5 million tonnes in 04. overtook Japan as s largest iron ore export market in Korea Source: ABS International Trade in Goods and Services; and Department of Mines and Petroleum, Resource Data Files. exports $80b 60 $60b 0 The value of s iron ore exports $40b 80 $0b 40 fell % to $65 billion in 04, a turnaround from annual average growth of 7% in the past 0 years. The annual average price of the State s iron ore exports fell 9% in 04. The volume of the State s iron ore exports rose 4% to 697 million tonnes in 04, above annual average growth of 3% in the past 0 years Value - left axis Price index 0 04 Volume index Source: ABS International Trade in Goods and Services; and Department of Mines and Petroleum, Resource Data Files. Major iron ore exporting ports exports from Port Hedland rose 3% to 300Mt Port Hedland 393Mt 89Mt Cape Lam bert 9Mt Geraldton 4Mt 3Mt Esperance Mt Mt Yampi Sound 38Mt 38Mt Dampier Mt 4Mt 0Mt 00Mt 00Mt 300Mt 400Mt 500Mt 393 million tonnes in 04, accounting for 56% of the State s iron ore exports. exports from Dampier remained at 38 million tonnes in 04, contributing of the State s iron ore exports. exports from Cape Lambert rose 46% to 9 million tonnes in 04, contributing 9% of the State s iron ore exports. Port authorities and iron ore producers are aiming for port capacities of 495 million tonnes for Port Hedland by 07-8, 0 million tonnes for Cape Lambert by 04-5 and 50 million tonnes for Dampier by Source: ABS International Trade in Goods and Services. July 05 Page 8 of 0

9 July 05 LNG sales $5b 50 The value of s LNG sales rose 00 $5b 50 8% to $5.6 billion in 04, above annual average growth of 7% in the past 0 years. The annual average price of the State s LNG sales rose 7% in 04, the same as annual average growth in the past 0 years. The volume of the State s LNG sales rose to. million tonnes in 04, above annual average growth of 9% in the past 0 years Value - left axis 009 Price index 04 Volume index Source: Department of Mines and Petroleum, Resource Data Files. Quarterly merchandise exports s merchandise exports fell 4% $40b to $7.8 billion in the March quarter 05. s merchandise exports to $30b $0b Mar 006 Mar 009 Mar 0 Japan fell 6% to $3.5 billion in the March quarter 05; the fifth successive quarterly decline. The State s merchandise exports to Japan fell 5% to $5. billion in the March quarter 05. The State s merchandise exports to all other countries (excludes and Japan) increased by 6% to $9. billion in the March quarter 05. Mar 05 All other countries Source: ABS International Trade in Goods and Services. Services trade Western $0b $5b $5b Exports 0 04 Imports Australia contributed 0.5% of Australia s services exports in 04. The State s services exports in 04 were mostly personal travel (48%), transport (7%), business travel (4%) and technical, trade and other business services (8%). s services exports rose 5% to $6.3 billion in 04, mainly due to increases in personal travel to the State (up 8% to $3. billion), business travel (up 6% to $869 million) and postal and courier services (up % to $5 million). Services imports rose 0.6% to $0.6 billion in 04, mainly due to increases in freight services (up 5% to $.6 billion). Source: ABS (004) International Trade in Services by Country, State and Detailed Services Category. July 05 Page 9 of 0

10 July 05 Regions* LEGEND (note map is indicative only) Ichthys LNG plants and projects (proposed and existing) Rio Tinto major iron ore mines and projects BHP Billiton major iron ore mines and projects Fortescue Metals Group major iron ore mines and projects Other major iron ore mines and projects Major existing and proposed ports Prelude FLNG Browse FLNG Argyle Diamond Mine WESTERN AUSTRALIA^ Minerals & petroleum sales: $4.b Population (growth):,58,50 (.6%) Employment:,375,600 Unemployment (rate): 73,400 (5.%) James Price Point Broome Kimberley Minerals & petroleum sales: $b Population (growth): 39,099 (-.) Employment: 8,47 Unemployment (rate):,569 (.%) North Rankin Redevelopment Gorgon DAMPIER Anketell PORT HEDLAND CAPE LAMBERT Karratha Pluto & the North West Shelf Onslow Wheatstone & Ashburton North Pilbara and offshore Gascoyne Tom Price Minerals & petroleum sales: $47.5m Population (growth): 9,959 (0.6%) Employment: 5,46 Unemployment (rate): 509 (8.8%) Paraburdoo Newman Minerals & petroleum sales: $9b Population (growth): 67,503 (.8%) Employment: 48,466 Unemployment (rate):,589 (3.%) Mid West Carnarvon Minerals & petroleum sales: $3b Population (growth): 58,83 (0.6%) Employment: 30,47 Unemployment (rate):,0 (6.8%) Goldfields-Esperance Minerals & petroleum sales: $9.4b Population (growth): 6,333 (-0.9%) Employment: 36,340 Unemployment (rate):,98 (5.) Perth/Peel Minerals & petroleum sales: $5.8b Population (growth):,08,55 (.5%) Employment:,069,39 Unemployment (rate): 60,479 (5.4%) Oakajee Geraldton Kalgoorlie Wheatbelt Minerals & petroleum sales: $.3b Population (growth): 74,774 (0.) Employment: 35,378 Unemployment (rate):,39 (3.8%) PERTH Fremantle South West Ravensthorpe Bunbury Minerals & petroleum sales: $437m Population (growth): 74,05 (.6%) Employment: 9,55 Unemployment (rate): 3,679 (3.9%) Esperance Collie Great Southern Minerals & petroleum sales: $5.8m Population (growth): 59,935 (.%) Employment: 6,706 Unemployment (rate):,08 (3.9%) Albany * Reference periods Minerals and petroleum sales (04), population (03-4) and labour markets (March quarter 05). ^ Reference periods 04 except labour markets (May 05). Source: Department of Mines and Petroleum, Statistics Digest; Department of Employment, Small Area Labour Markets; and ABS 38.0 Regional Population Growth and Value of Agricultural Commodities Produced. July 05 Page 0 of 0