Impact of the Mt. Baekdu explosion to South Korea s air transportation with Hypothetical scenario

Transcription

1 Impact of the Mt. Baekdu explosion to South Korea s air transportation with Hypothetical scenario Jiseon LEE, Ph.D. candidate, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, KAIST Yoonjin Yoon, Professor, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, KAIST

2 1 Outline I. Background & Research Objective II. Current State of Korea s Air Transportation III. Data Description IV. Scenario V. Analysis VI. Conclusions and Future Research

3 Background & Research Objective

4 Introduction I. Intro. There has been growing interest on the impact of volcano ash regrading aviation safety and air travel and economic, especially after the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland. Significant Volcanic ash events Eruption of Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland Impact of the EU : 100,000 flights and 10 million passenger journeys Year Volcano Country Impact of the Korea: 88 commercial flights (30,000 passengers), 55 Cargo 1980 Mt. St. Helens United States flights (4,000 tons) 1982 Galunggung Volcano Indonesia 1989 Mt. Redoubt United States 1991 Mt. Pinatubo Philippines 2010 Mt. Eyjafjallajokull Iceland Traffic in Europe before and during the April Crisis 2

5 3 Potential Eruption of Mt. Beagdu I. Intro. Mt.Beakdu

6 Research Objective I. Intro. Volcanic risk assessment has typically focused on loss of the economy and physical damage. This research analyzes the effect of volcanic ash to air traffic flow at national and worldwide levels, in the hypothetical case of Mount Baekdu eruption We combined hypothetical ash dispersal scenario and air traffic data to assess the potential impacts on air transportation of an eruption from Mount Baekdu. We analyze the impact through the air-traffic route based on eruption scenarios 5

7 Current state of Korean Air Transportation 7

8 6 Airport overview II. Current state of Korean Air Transportation Total number of flights and passengers per month for Departure/Arrivals for all airports and Major airports (International/Domestic), Oct International Domestic Flights Passengers Flights Passengers Arr. 15,383 2,631,574 14,436 2,174,268 All airports Dep. 15,362 2,523,332 14,436 2,174,221 Total 30,745 5,154,906 28,872 4,348,489 Major airp orts Arr. 15,070 2,589,329 12,554 1,954,683 Dep. 15,056 2,482,407 12,551 1,960,602 Total 30,126 5,071,736 25,105 3,915,285 South Korea Airports (Red: Major Airports) Ratio 98% 98.4% 87% 90%

9 Major Airport and Routes II. Current state of Korean Air Transportation Routes : 12 international, 26 Domestic Four major airports are connected to nine different routes B467-1 G597-2 G585-3 A582-4 A586-5 G203-6 Y711&Y722-7 Y644-8 A595-9 South Korea Air Traffic Routes-(a) Routes for Major Airports (Google Earth)-(b) 7

10 Data Description 10

11 Data Description III. Data Description 1. Find Origin and Destination (OD) 2. Assign the route 3. Calculating the number of flights (each route and airport) 8

12 9 Find Origin and Destination (OD) III. Data Description Flight schedule (ICN, Dep) Flight status (ICN, Dep)

13 10 Assign the route III. Data Description Example of assigning the route (ICN-SIN),

14 Assign the route III. Data Description ICN GMP PUS CJU G597_B467, G597_R G585, A582_U Y711, Y722 G597_L, Y644 G597_R, G585, Y711, Y722, G597_L, Y644 A586_R, A582_D A582_U, A586_L G203 Y711, Y722, A Map. Google earth

15 Calculating the number of flights III. Data Description NUMBER OF FLIGHTS EACH ROUTE (TOTAL OF MAJOR AIRPORTS) Route Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun G597_B G597_R A586_R A586_L G A582_D A582_U G Y Y A G597_L Y Total

16 13 Calculating the number of flights III. Data Description Number of scheduled flights for each major airport (ICN, GMP, PUS and CJU) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ICN GMP PUS CJU Total FLIGHT OPERATION RATIO OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS PUS, 12.70% GMP, 7.01% CJU, 3.38% ICN, 76.91% % 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% PROPORTION OF THE REGION Asia, 83.77% Europe, 5.42% America, 8.73% Oceania, Africa, 1.28% 0.81% Asia Europe America Africa Oceania

17 Scenario 17

18 14 Scenario IV. Scenario 1 st Day 2 nd Day 3 rd Day 4 th ~7 th Day Close Routes: G597-B467, G597_R, A586_R Additional Closed Routes: G585, A582, A586_L, G203 Close Airport: PUS Additional Closed Routes: Y711, Y722 Closed Airports: PUS, CJU All Route and major airports close

19 Analysis 19

20 Result of the Scenario (Route_Scenario A) V. Analysis The number of cancelled flights (Scheduled flights: 5,799) Eruption day Cancelled flights Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saterday Sunday 4,443 4,481 4,440 4,417 4,374 4,376 4,387 Rate(%) Cancelled flights rate(1 day) and Cumulative average rate 15

21 Result of the Scenario (Route_Scenario A) III. Analysis The number of cancelled flights with worst case of the Scenario A (Eruption day: Tuesday) Route 1 st day (Tue) 2 nd day 3 rd day 4 th day 5 th day 6 th day G597_B G A586_R A586_L G A582_D A582_U Y Y A G597_L Y Total (day) Accumulation a mount 7 th day (Mon) ,085 1,931 2,780 3,654 4,480 16

22 17 Result of the Scenario (Route_Scenario B) V. Analysis The number of cancelled flights (Scheduled flights: 5,799) Starting day for eruption Recovery starting on 5 th day Recovery starting on 6th day Recovery starting on 7th day F a S b F S F S Mon 3, % 3, % 4, % Tue 3, % 3, % 4, % Wed 3, % 3, % 4, % Thu 3, % 3, % 4, % Fri 3, % 3, % 4, % Sat 2, % 3, % 4, % Sun 2, % 3, % 4, % a. F: number of cancelled flights b. S: Serviceability

23 18 Result of the Scenario (Route_Scenario B) V. Analysis Serviceability of Scenario B

24 19 Result of the Scenario (Airport_Scenario A) V. Analysis Serviceability of Scenario A with each major airports Starting day for e ruption Serviceability (week) ICN GMP PUS CJU Mon 25.54% 12.75% 28.21% Tue 25.16% 11.53% 22.56% Wed 25.70% 12.48% 27.18% Thu 25.87% 16.5% 12.75% 33.85% Fri 27.00% 12.89% 29.74% Sat 27.24% 12.08% 26.15% Sun 26.61% 12.75% 32.31%

25 20 Result of the Scenario (Airport_Scenario A) V. Analysis Serviceability of Scenario A with each major airports

26 21 Result of the Scenario (Airport_Scenario B) V. Analysis Serviceability of Scenario A with each major airports

27 22 Result of the Scenario (Region_Scenario A) V. Analysis Impact of each region with Scenario A Serviceability of regions by total number of serviceable flights (Scenario A)

28 23 Result of the Scenario (Region_Scenario B) V. Analysis Proportion & Number of serviceable flights

29 Conclusion and Future Study 29

30 Conclusion and Future study VI. Conclusion and Future study Conclusion In this research, the main purpose is to estimate the impact of an eruption of Mt. Baekdu. We have analyzed the impacts on air transportation serviceability from hypothetical volcanic ash dispersal scenario. Less than a quarter of total number of international flights could be served during one week with scenario A (No recovery). The highest serviceability of Scenario B was less than 50% of total number of flights even the volcanic ashes gradually dissipated from 5 th day of eruption. Airlines and government should develop their emergency response plan in case of eruption of Mt. Baekdu. 23

31 25 Conclusion and Future study VI. Conclusion and Future study Limitation This research was of the very first attempt to analyze the impact of Mt. Baekdu eruption from the perspective of air transportation with hypothetical scenario. It still has a long way to develop and mature into a concrete study. First this research only considered the cancelled international commercial flights from and to South Korea s four major airports with an exception of 3,879 flights that fly over South Korea because we have a very limited information on the fly-overs. In addition, the seasonally adjusted wind direction based on happened in Oct. Because, it is possible that the volcanic ashes can reach South Korea after eruption of Mount Baekdu at that season. Finally, we did not calculate the impact of the number of passengers due to the lack of the information.

32 27 Conclusion and Future study VI. Conclusion and Future study Further study We should consider to extend the scope of the research not only for South Korea but also Japan and China. We only focused on the major airports in South Korea. Secondly, we also need to extend our analysis to different seasons. We expect that Japan is more severely affected than Korean peninsula in winter, while we assume an eruption would affect China and Russia more severely. Third, we could consider the re-routing probability in the future study. This research could not decide the re-routing with general flight information. Lastly, we can develop a scenario to the smaller time segment as 4 segments; 23~05, 05~11, 11~17, 17~23

33 Thank you for your attention. 33